Predictions and promises monitor

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Authors
449
Predictions
3167
Verified
1191
Came true
65%
Complex
58%
Confident
49%

Sergey Smirnov

How is Ibragim Suleymanov doing? And now, judging by the charges filed against him, he has two counts of organizing murders. I don't think the investigation will stop there. My prediction is they will find new criminal cases... Ibragim Suleymanov will be jailed for decades; there is no doubt about that.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

Kozak is a fairly trusted figure for Vladimir Putin. Nothing will happen to Dmitry Kozak, I'm sure of that, just as nothing happened to Kudrin. I think Kozak will be somewhere at Kudrin's level.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

Literally almost every day, news comes in about nationalizations or simply the redistribution of business. You know the most famous examples. There are two options: nationalization, and the second option is declaring it an extremist community. Now they will start doing this routinely. My prediction is that they will put this into practice on a large scale, and we will see quite a few more extremist communities, besides the Nevzorovs, the owners of Kirieshki, and Lesta.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

In my opinion, Roman Dobrokhotov was right to say that if he contacts us, we have sufficient data for 2017 and we will quickly understand how much basis this has. By the way, knowing Durov, I don't think he will contact anyone. I think there won't be much of a continuation of the story. And everyone will be left with the impression that Durov talked about poisoning, then proved nothing, so he was talking nonsense. Let's remember this conversation in six months; I think that's how it will be in six months. Remind me of this prediction in six months.
Expected
#Durov
ru → en

Ayder Muzhdabaev

My forecast is that the situation is approaching its climax. Call it World War Three, a hybrid war, or whatever you like. But the situation is approaching its climax. I think that the resolution will come during the first half of next year, or generally next year as a whole. Putin has already taken a low start. Drones across Europe—that is war... This will end with Russian ships being completely banned from sailing the seas; it will end with clashes with NATO. This cannot end with anything else, because Putin has decided to go all the way.
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine #European Union #NATO
ru → en

Ian Matveev

Probably not; it's very unlikely that Tomahawks will be supplied. In response to the question: "Will there be Tomahawks? How good are they? And what are the pros and cons?" (Will they be given to Ukraine)
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Nikolai Korzhenevskiy

Returning to the Bank of Russia, it will want to see how this will affect inflationary expectations, so definitely until January 1st, no one will be lowering the key rate quickly. Referring to the key rate.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Ezra Mor

Literally at this moment, a meeting between Netanyahu and Trump began at the White House. There will be a discussion of the plan for this deal, which is a 21-point deal. I believe Israel will agree... I sincerely don't believe that Hamas will agree to this deal.
Expected
#Hamas #Israel #Trump
ru → en

Vitaly Portnikov

The point is that Hamas represents the position of the majority of Palestinians, for whom the goal is the destruction of the Jewish state and the Jewish people, which is why this plan will not work. Trump's plan, which he laid out on September 29, 2025.
Expected
#Israel #Hamas #Trump
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

When the elections take place in Hungary, the European Union will provoke a civil war in Hungary, similar to a velvet revolution. Combat detachments will be deployed there from Ukraine, composed of ethnic Hungarians, as well as from Serbia and Romania, where Hungarians reside, and they will overthrow Orbán.
Expected
#Hungary
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Russia cannot conclude a truce without reaching the borders of the DNR and LNR. But what if it fails to reach them? There will be a political crisis, I think. Then the war will continue, and then they will start supplying Tomahawks, I think.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

I think that, right now with Netanyahu... some kind of terrible terrorist attack will happen in Israel that will be blamed on Hamas, in order to prolong this bloody life a little while longer for this gang that is at the head of the Jewish state.
Expected
#Israel
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

Well, perhaps some very nominal figure, like Zhoga—meaning a 'desk veteran' who hasn't seen much fighting and clearly understands the party line. Naturally, no veterans of the Special Military Operation will be allowed into positions of power. The Kremlin would view them more as a dangerous, destructive force. In response to the question: "Will any SMO veteran be featured as one of the main driving forces in the upcoming campaign?"
Expected
#Russia #Elections
ru → en

Leonid Volkov

What I'm sure of is, Putin won't go. The rating of United Russia is so disastrous that Putin cannot be associated with United Russia. As the list leader for United Russia in the 2026 elections.
Expected
#Russia #Putin #Elections
ru → en

Leonid Volkov

There will definitely be some military figure, someone who has an association with the SMO, and a positive one at that. In the 2026 elections in Russia, from the ruling party.
Expected
#Russia #Elections
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I am 100% sure that Russia will deliberately provoke European countries with these seemingly accidental incursions. It won't be every week, but once a month or once every two months, hypothetically. I doubt one will be shot down eventually; as long as it flies on a tangent—just cutting the corner—they won't shoot it down. If they fly deep inside, then that's a different matter. In response to the question: "How likely is it that Russia will also troll the Europeans with its planes? And how likely is it that sooner or later one of these planes will be shot down?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #European Union #Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

I'll make a prediction: at some point, the percentage of Shahed interceptions by drones will be 40-50%, no less.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Yes, they would. But I don't think it will come to that. In response to the question: "NATO is threatening to shoot down Russian fighter jets. Do they have the guts?"
Expected
#NATO #Russia
ru → en

Yigal Levin

Let me remind you that it is forbidden to kill people anywhere, in any state, even in diametrically opposed ones. Whether it's North Korea or France, in both places, killing is forbidden, and the state will come for you if you decide to do such a thing. Not even all states can kill—the death penalty doesn't exist everywhere. A soldier, however, is the only person to whom international humanitarian law gives an official mandate to kill. A soldier has the right to kill; moreover, it's expected of him by the authorities (as is his readiness to die). That is to say, wars are legal ways of disposing of large masses of unwanted people, which Putin has now empirically proven. If AI isn't artificially slowed down, then it's likely that before the end of this century, there will be a whole series of large and deadly conflicts. Ideally, elites want to create permanent points of conflict and tension—regions of controlled instability. In them, troublemakers, the destitute, the displaced, the unemployed, those who don't fit into the economy, and so on can be dumped and disposed of.
Expected
ru → en

Michael Nacke

I'll stick with my opinion for now that the Chief of the General Staff will be replaced by the end of the year. Referring to Valery Gerasimov, the Chief of the General Staff of Russia.
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Valeriya Ratnikova

Alla Pugacheva could face up to 5 years in prison for her remarks about Dzhokhar Dudayev... I don't think Alla Pugacheva will face a criminal case.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

The Western countries have a very good scenario left to support Ukraine's financial stability: to give Ukraine Putin's money... I have no doubt that this is the exact scenario that will be implemented. That is to say, they will give the money to Ukraine. The Russian money. It's about the frozen Russian assets.
Expected
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I believe that Vance won't last, either. And Vance has no chance of replacing Trump as president of the United States.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

There's a hateful reaction from pro-Kremlin figures, first and foremost for her leaving, for speaking very highly of Dudayev, and for speaking very highly of Gorbachev; for this, there is fierce hatred. Also, the statement that she will never set foot in Russia again. There have been proposals to list her as a foreign agent or an extremist. But I don't think that will happen. Speaking about Alla Pugacheva
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

Is there a chance for 14%? In my opinion, there's no chance of that. There is a chance for 16% by the end of the year, but... Referring to the key rate in Russia, stating that it won't be 14% by the end of 2025.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

There will definitely be a next time from the Russian side. Putin needs for the drones not to just fly over Poland, but to hit something there, to blow something up on the territory of Poland or another NATO country.
Expected
#Putin #Poland #NATO #War in Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

No, Israel won't risk attacking Turkey, never. In response to the question: "Could you please tell me if Israel would risk attacking Turkey?"
Expected
#Israel #Turkey
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Oil will most likely fall even further in price in the near future.
Expected
#Oil #Economy
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Here we see Markaryan, who spoke out against the war... He'll go to prison; they'll put him there.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

For now, we're being saved by Trump's greed, in that he's willing to sell these weapons to the Europeans, but then he'll sell weapons to the Russians. I think it'll all happen just like that.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #USA #Russia #Trump #Ukraine
ru → en

Tikhon Dzyadko

Another round of sanctions is being discussed... The 19th sanctions package concerns a serious restriction on the issuance of tourist visas to Russians... I am absolutely convinced that such a measure won't be adopted.
Expected
#Russia #European Union
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Do you believe that Narendra Modi will give up buying Russian oil? No, he won't. Trump will be the one to meet him halfway.
Expected
#India #Trump #Russia #Oil
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

Vance, it's unlikely that anyone will bring him to power. No one needs him. JD Vance
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Ekaterina Kotrikadze

I think neither of them will get it. In response to the comment: "Right now, the main contenders for the Nobel Peace Prize are Donald Trump and Francesca Albanese..."
Expected
#Trump
ru → en

Tikhon Dzyadko

I think neither the first nor the second will get it. In response to the comment: "Right now, the main contenders for the Nobel Peace Prize are Donald Trump and Francesca Albanese..."
Expected
#Trump
ru → en

Mikhail Krutikhin

This SCO, as well as BRICS and Russia's customs unions, are purely bureaucratic inventions that won't play a role. They will not replace the dollar.
Expected
#Russia #Dollar
ru → en

Ian Matveev

Just recently, they took down a drug smugglers' boat. It was a big victory for Trump. Well, that looks very stupid. They most likely won't do anything about Maduro. Most likely, nothing will change. I think there's only one end for Maduro: either his own people will finish him off, or he'll just die.
Expected
#Venezuela
ru → en

Ian Matveev

How much longer will the war go on? What do you think, Yan? Right now, I would say no less than six months, no less than six months, and then we'll see. The war in Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Igor Eidman

If Putin doesn't agree to this, the Europeans won't send any troops anywhere. That's because they aren't ready to go to war with Putin. If Putin doesn't give his consent, the Europeans won't send troops to Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #European Union #Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

No matter what's happening in Europe or what statements are being made there, no one will fight. They just won't join this war; it's obvious. European countries will not enter the war in Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #European Union
ru → en

Vyacheslav Maltsev

The UN will be in Shanghai. I can bet on it. Maybe not in Shanghai, but it will be in China, 100%. The UN will be in China. And it will be the world's legislative body.
Expected
#UN #China
ru → en

Evgeniy Stupin

I'm still inclined to believe that he will resolve this issue somehow by the end of the year. Either he'll arrange some kind of temporary truce, or he'll go all out. Something will happen by the end of the year. You promised it in a day, but a year is already just around the corner. Trump will make some important decisions regarding the war in Ukraine by the end of the year.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Dmitry Bykov

I think that when there's a worldwide trial over the rule of Vladimir Putin and his accomplices, Beslan will be one of the main arguments. And have no doubt that this trial will happen.
Expected
#Putin #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Look at Venezuela, it's been thrown into the mix. Nothing will happen... because to do that, one would have to enter into a real, prolonged conflict with an unpredictable outcome. And he's geared for perpetual victory, Trump is.
Expected
#Venezuela
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

I think it will come to a victim anyway. The Russians will definitely do it. I don't know who exactly they will eliminate. I mean European leaders; I'm not joking. They will eliminate one of them.
Expected
#Russia #European Union
ru → en