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Predictions and promises monitor

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Authors
393
Predictions
2468
Verified
908
Came true
65%
Complex
53%
Confident
48%
Predictions Author Ranking
All Expected Expected soon New results

Mark Feygin

If peacekeepers are deployed, then a no-fly zone over Ukraine will definitely follow... They will at the very least protect the areas where the peacekeeping contingent is stationed. That’s for sure.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Denis Borisov

The interest rate... it will be lowered in the near future. In the U.S.
Expected
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Denis Borisov

And then, on the 19th day, the Federal Reserve cut the interest rate to nearly zero and printed a bunch of cash. They printed 700 billion U.S. dollars. Now the numbers will be completely different because money has devalued. This time they'll start printing by the trillions — just watch.
Expected
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

If the war continues specifically with Ukraine, there won’t be a mobilization. But if there’s a clash with NATO or a group of NATO countries, then mobilization will definitely happen.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #NATO
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

Personally, I don’t think there’s a very high likelihood that the Americans might launch a military campaign against Iran — the chances are low, but not zero.
Expected
#Iran #USA
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

Answer to the question: Will there be a mobilization? My answer is: most likely, yes — because the generals are persistent people, and for Putin, Ukraine is the main enemy, something that must be destroyed. And as for the people, the National Guard and the valiant security services will take care of them.
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

Taking Zaporizhzhia or taking Dnipro won’t work for the Russians — I’m saying that in advance. Because capturing a major city is an extremely complex operation, fraught with massive losses.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

Let’s imagine that Russian troops really do approach Zaporizhzhia and the battle for the city begins. Do you think the Armed Forces of Ukraine would leave those bridges across the Dnipro — I believe there are three of them — intact? In my view, the likelihood of that is zero.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

Over the past month, there’s been a kind of offensive stirring of Russian troops. And overall, it’s clear they’re probably planning to move toward Zaporizhzhia. Will it work? Only God knows. I think it won’t work out.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

I foresee this happening within a couple of years — blogging will start to fade and disappear. Only those will remain who turn their platforms into professional news agencies, information agencies, or expert organizations.
Expected
#Internet
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

Musk’s sales are down 50 percent, and the market cap is down 17 percent. Smart Democrats in Congress have already picked up on this. They’re buying like crazy — buying Tesla stock. Because it will go up. It can’t go down.
Expected
#Economy
ru → en

Mikhail Kasyanov

The most likely scenario as I see it today — the one that's taking shape... President Trump, I think, by May or June at the latest, will realize that Putin is not capable of making agreements, and he'll start stepping away from the issue. Ukraine will no longer interest him. He’ll blame everything on the Europeans: “These are your problems — deal with them yourselves.”
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Trump won’t stay on in four years, no matter what anyone says about a third term or a swap with Vance. I don’t believe in that — I think there’s absolutely no chance.
Expected
#USA #Trump #Elections
ru → en

Ivan Tyutrin

The whole feed is buzzing over the fact that Gretzky’s eternal record has fallen. And as a hockey fan, I can honestly say that this particular goal-scoring record is impossible to break for at least the next few decades.
Expected
#Sport
ru → en

Boris Aronshtein

Oil has been falling since January 2025... I don’t think it will continue to decline significantly.
Expected
#Oil #Economy
ru → en

Michael Nacke

I don't rule it out—in fact, I believe it's a very likely scenario—that we will see the United States involved in some kind of armed conflict, not in Ukraine, but near its own neighbors or somewhere else. I think it will happen. And I also think it will be a loud fiasco.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

U.S. President Donald Trump recently even proposed a 50 percent cut in defense spending. He made this proposal to Russia and China. But of course, this is pure demagoguery. In reality, under Donald Trump’s administration, American defense spending will increase.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

Over the past week and the one before it, as well as over the past few months, there’s been a lot of talk that the U.S. might either withdraw from NATO or weaken its ties with the alliance. Well, I state with full confidence: this is complete nonsense. The United States will never give up such a tool of military and political dominance in Europe as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Expected
#NATO #USA
ru → en

Mark Feygin

They’ll do it. Just look at how freely they impose multibillion-dollar fines on these American companies. In response to the remark: "What if the Europeans introduce some tariffs on American digital services?"
Expected
#European Union #USA #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Pastukhov

Why did Hess fly from Germany to the UK in his own plane and spend the rest of his time there at a guarded estate before the war? I’ve never seen a definitive answer to that question — neither what message he delivered, nor why Hitler decided to send him. I believe the answers to these questions are still stored in archives that are unlikely to be declassified anytime in the next 100–200 years.
Expected
#Germany #United Kingdom
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Right now they are developing some kind of mechanism whereby, no matter what Orban’s position is, they simply activate the mechanism — and that’s it. Europe will not lift the sanctions. Sanctions against Russia.
Expected
#Europe #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Olena Kurbanova

I personally believe that Marco Rubio will most likely leave Trump’s circle — possibly even faster than Elon Musk.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Many people are counting on the Central Bank to somehow miraculously defeat inflation and start lowering its key interest rate, which would then bring down loan rates as well. But that is definitely not going to happen.
Expected
#Economy #Economy of Russia #Russia
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

Only Moscow matters. That’s why strikes must be directed solely at Moscow — and then this war will end, and it will end very quickly. There are no other ways to stop this war.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

For now, everything is being done for Putin — in favor of Putin, in the name of Putin, to support Putin. But nothing will come of it, in my opinion. So this will eventually lead to a tightening of sanctions against Russia. On the relationship between Trump and Putin
Expected
#Trump #Putin #Russia
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

If the defeat in the midterm elections is crushing, then he won’t make it to the end of the term. In response to the question: "In your opinion, will Trump serve out his full term?"
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

I believe that once Kadyrov is gone, within a few months — let alone a few years — all that will be left of him in Chechnya will be memories, that there once was such a person as Kadyrov. Everything will be renamed, everything will be removed.
Expected
#Kadyrov #Russia
ru → en

Vasily Koltashov

Russia has incorporated four new regions. It will take in four more, and then another four. This will likely continue to happen.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

In any case, they will not appear in Ukraine until a full agreement to freeze the war is signed. Only after that can a peacekeeping contingent be deployed on Ukrainian territory.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine
ru → en

Vladislav Inozemtsev

No, it won't. Answer to the question: "Do you think it's possible to expect that in the near future — say, by the 100th day of Trump's presidency or by May 9 — the war will come to a halt?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mikhail Krutikhin

I believe that if the cartel breaks up in the fall or by the end of the year and stops manipulating production, and each country starts producing as much as it can, then prices will drop below 50 dollars per barrel.
Expected
ru → en

Mikhail Krutikhin

Eventually, by the end of the year—or maybe even earlier, in the fall—these countries will make a final decision (I'm already quite sure of it): let’s stop limiting production altogether. Each country will produce as much oil as it wants, as much as it can. About OPEC
Expected
#Oil #Economy
ru → en

Mikhail Krutikhin

Eventually, by the end of the year—or maybe even earlier, in the fall—these countries will make a final decision (I'm already quite sure of it): let’s stop limiting production altogether. Each country will produce as much oil as it wants, as much as it can.
Expected
#Oil #Economy
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

And where are they going to suddenly get hundreds of billions? They wanted to cut the Pentagon’s budget. Remember, it all started with Vance’s statements — like, “let’s cut Pentagon spending by almost half.” They won’t be allowed to cut the Pentagon’s budget. It’ll be just like with Kennedy.
Expected
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

To maintain competitiveness, China will definitely go for a devaluation of the yuan. I’ll bet a bottle of vodka on it.
Expected
#China #Yuan #Economy
ru → en

Vyacheslav Maltsev

So I think Kazakhstan itself will eventually produce nuclear weapons and will also produce enriched uranium for the production of nuclear weapons by other countries — and in large quantities.
Expected
#Kazakhstan #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

I strongly disagree with the idea that any form of ending the war in Ukraine will lead to some kind of thaw, a weakening of the regime, or anything like that. I don't believe in it, and I don’t recommend that you do either.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Stanislav Kucher

My prediction remains the same as it was six months ago, three months ago, and a month ago — namely, that Trump will not achieve real peace in Ukraine. Putin will continue to escalate... Therefore, in 2025, I believe there will be no lasting peace between Russia and Ukraine. And even if, by some miracle, a 30-day ceasefire is agreed upon, it will be broken.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #Putin
ru → en

Stanislav Kucher

I'm confident that some of these tariffs will be lifted, and quite soon at that. The tariffs imposed by Donald Trump.
Expected
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

I'm sure that Yermak will publish a memoir that will be very popular, in which he will talk about his relationship with Zelensky.
Expected
#Ukraine
ru → en

Alexander Kolyandr

Personally, I think the next move we’ll see will be an attack by Trump and his administration on the Federal Reserve, trying to strip it of its independence or at least push it into the shadows — or on the U.S. statistical bureau, to make it provide more “correct” numbers.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Since it has the nature of a behind-the-scenes financial and economic deal, Kirill Dmitriev is a key figure here. So, without a doubt, this deal will go through. Calling it “peace talks” doesn’t feel right. I believe it will be a situation that Trump will sell as his victory — and after that, the war will resume. In response to the question: “Do you think peace negotiations will reach their logical conclusion, or will everything continue indefinitely?”
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

No, they can't. Because the Democrats (Trump's enemies) don't have that kind of power. In response to the question: "Can they try to impeach Trump?"
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

When will Moldova attack Transnistria? Never. Moldova won’t attack Transnistria because it doesn’t have the resources for that.
Expected
#Moldova
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

I still don't believe that Israel and Netanyahu will appear at the May 9th parade. I think it's some kind of hoax, planted in order to discredit the Russian authorities.
Expected
#Russia #Israel
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

If we're talking about the military option—regaining any territories—then we're looking at a timeline of at least a notional 10 years, in my opinion. In response to the question: "Your most optimistic military forecast for Ukraine? Is there any chance of ever regaining any territories by military means?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

In a format similar to the summer of 2023, something more or less large-scale — no, it’s not possible. There are neither the forces nor the resources for that. Right now, those forces and resources are only sufficient to defend, hold positions, and carry out diversionary raids. A full-scale counteroffensive is definitely not possible within the next year. Answer to the question: "Is a new counteroffensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine possible?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Maria Pevchikh

Remember this tweet. Later, they’ll all come to us: Kirill Dmitriev, all those technocrats, the employees of today’s Ministry of Economic Development and Finance, or the bankers from Sberbank — Gref and the rest. After Putin, they will appear in a completely different light. They’ll be soft and fluffy. They’ll say things on TV that melt our hearts. They’ll smile and talk about how important and heroic Alexei Navalny was, how they secretly supported him all along, and how vital his work was.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

In reality, Putin won’t last long. When this regime collapses, all those territories will return to Ukraine — there’s no doubt about that. And all those criminals who carried out these seizures — we will hunt them down around the world and bring them to justice. Justice will prevail. Sometimes, it doesn’t come immediately.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Putin #Russia
ru → en

Arti Green

I don’t expect anything in the foreseeable future. Not until Russia moves to the next level of mobilization. I mean, unless it brings another half a million soldiers into service and increases the level of industrial mobilization, I don’t see any significant threats on any part of the front.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en