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Predictions and promises monitor

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Authors
415
Predictions
2737
Verified
992
Came true
65%
Complex
53%
Confident
48%
Predictions Author Ranking
All Expected Expected soon New results

Oleksiy Arestovych

Recently, there was the largest overnight drone attack on Kyiv — nearly 300 Shaheds. Russian channels claimed, “Just wait — there will be 600 soon, then 1,000.” It won’t happen soon, but eventually, it definitely will. The Shaheds are getting more advanced, harder to shoot down... They’ll terrorize the rear, strike with ballistic missiles, and hit with Shaheds. And when the attacks reach 400–600 Shaheds in a single night — and they definitely will, in six months or a year — things will get very serious. Air defense won’t be able to handle it.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ilya Ponomarev

My forecast, based purely on intuition and general practice, is that Trump — or rather, to be more precise, the Republicans — should lose these midterm elections, and the majority in Congress should shift to the Democrats. Whether that happens or not, we’ll see.
Expected
#USA #Elections
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

Erdogan is clearly working on the problem of staying in power forever. How he plans to do this legally is already clear. He said so yesterday. He stated that Turkey urgently needs a new constitution. This means that a new constitution will be adopted within the next two years, and there will be a “reset” — allowing him to run for office again in 2028. The term “reset” was widely used in Russia as a mechanism for constitutional change that allowed Putin to remain president starting in 2024 due to the implementation of the revised constitution.
Expected
#Turkey #Erdogan #Elections
ru → en

Vladimir Kara-Murza

I rarely agree with Putin on anything, but there's one thing he said yesterday that’s hard to disagree with. He said that the war in Ukraine will continue until its root causes are eliminated. I completely agree with that. The only thing is, the real root cause of this terrible war is the current Chekist regime... As long as Putin remains in power, the war will go on.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Yevgeny Satanovsky

I don’t believe for a second in the preservation of the Tartus and Khmeimim bases, for the simple reason that Erdogan — why would he need them? So that we could also control the Black Sea straits from the south? Moreover, why would the Americans need them — or Trump, for that matter? Speaking about the Russian military bases in Syria.
Expected
#Russia #Syria #Turkey
ru → en

Igor Eidman

There will be some token actions as part of the continuation of this negotiation process. These actions will take place. It’s purely a cover for Putin’s escalation of the war. Again, it’s meant to convince the Americans not to impose sanctions against them... And, unfortunately, yes — the war will go on. Within the current negotiation process, the war in Ukraine will not come to an end.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Igor Eidman

The only thing I’m absolutely sure of is that nothing Trump promises will actually happen. In other words, look at it in reverse: if Trump says he’ll lower drug prices, that means drug prices won’t go down.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Tetiana Montian

Our side also realized that Trump just needs to be waited out, because today he says one thing, tomorrow another, and the day after something else... So they’re waiting too. I mean, how can you negotiate with someone who’s about to be taken down? It’s completely obvious. Trump will be taken down soon.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Ekaterina Kotrikadze

I believe that, of course, a meeting between them is inevitable — it will definitely happen... In response to the question: "What could anger Trump about Putin?"
Expected
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia
ru → en

Vladislav Zhukovsky

I think Nabiullina will resist in every possible way right now. I believe the meeting on June 6 is important — we need to pay attention to Nabiullina’s rhetoric. I don’t think the rate will be lowered. Key interest rate in Russia
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Taras Berezovets

Let’s see what happens with the sanctions. The 17th EU sanctions package is ready. Will it be adopted? Europe is waiting for action from Trump. But Trump, for his part, is in no rush. I’ll venture a guess: Trump, as someone primarily focused on a meeting with Putin — he has said that he’s willing to postpone all other meetings for the sake of this one — doesn’t want to strain relations with the Kremlin. So I think Trump definitely won’t impose any sanctions now. Before the meeting with Putin.
Expected
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #Economy
ru → en

Sergei Markov

My forecast? No—my insight: the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will collapse now due to Ukraine’s ultimatums. But that will be the first move, a pass. After that, the second move: an announcement will be made about a meeting between Putin and Trump as soon as possible.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Trump #USA
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

The oil price cap should have been revised a long time ago. Sixty is already a completely outdated figure for the current market. It should have been lowered. But imagining that the G20 will now come together and decide to lower it from 60 to 45 — that’s unrealistic. There are already too many disagreements, too many conflicts, so it’s no longer possible to make it happen. Referring to the oil price cap for Russia.
Expected
#Oil #Economy #Russia #Economy of Russia #G20
ru → en

Nikolai Feldman

We’re recording this broadcast on the eve of potential negotiations. People are hoping for a ceasefire, for peace. I don’t believe in it. Let’s proceed from the assumption that it won’t happen. Speaking about the war in Ukraine and a truce between Russia and Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Valery Solovei

Who exactly will become his successor? That’s the key question. It won’t be Adam Kadyrov. Nothing of the sort. Adam Kadyrov will not succeed Ramzan Kadyrov.
Expected
#Russia #Kadyrov
ru → en

Ian Matveev

In terms of probability, I would assess it as low. Because the involvement of Russia’s regions in Russian affairs is very high — most likely, no one will want to separate, in my opinion. The republics of the Caucasus — maybe; their probability is somewhat higher. As for Tatarstan, the probability is zero. In response to the question: "What do you think about the possibility of national republics breaking away from the Russian Federation after the end of the Putin regime? How likely do you think that is?"
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

If we’re talking about European countries, they abide by international law — unlike Putin. Therefore, of course, no one is going to attack Kaliningrad.
Expected
#Russia #Europe
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Over the next year, we can forget about prices of \$70 for Russian export oil — that would mean Brent at \$80. That’s definitely not something we’re facing for now.
Expected
#Oil #Economy #Russia #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

There will be no peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine in the foreseeable future, whether anyone likes it or not. This is a fact that follows from the logic of Putin’s behavior... They won’t reach an agreement.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Win/Win

Zelensky failed to disrupt the negotiations by citing the "wrong" composition of the Russian delegation. Zelensky is soon flying to Istanbul, where his negotiators have already been located. In addition, an extra Ukrainian delegation is flying to Turkey, consisting of deputy foreign ministers, deputy defense ministers, SBU representatives, and members of the Presidential Office. This delegation is expected to hold the main meeting with the Russian counterparts.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Turkey #Zelensky
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

Right now, the Russians have gone to the Dolmabahçe Palace in Istanbul. The Ukrainians said they would arrive in Istanbul late. Why was this said? To take a pause and decide on a new delegation lineup. I think tomorrow it won’t be Rustem Umerov anymore, but someone of a lower level from the Ukrainian side.
Did not come true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Turkey
ru → en

Boris Aronshtein

I believe there are no fundamental reasons for the oil price to sharply drop again or, conversely, to stabilize. It seems to me that this price level is quite acceptable for American producers.
Expected
#Oil #Economy
ru → en

Alexey Naumov

Forecast: I believe that the Russian side will agree to a 30-day ceasefire during the negotiations. It will not be presented as a response to the ultimatum from the EU and Ukraine, but rather as an independent initiative within the framework of a desired peaceful resolution. This is a forecast. Assessments will follow later.
Did not come true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Boris Aronshtein

As for the ruble... By the end of the year... Forecasting is a very ungrateful task, but I think it will be in the range of 85–95. The ruble will be 85–95 per dollar by the end of the year.
Expected
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Savik Shuster

To be honest, I don’t expect Putin to show up. It would be a very positive sign if he did — it would mean that Russia is seeking a ceasefire. In Istanbul on May 15 for negotiations with Zelensky.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Turkey
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

I'd give it a 1. Not zero. It's not zero probability. In response to the question: "Could Putin come? On a scale from 1 to 10, what number would you assign to the likelihood of Putin coming?" (To Istanbul on May 15 for negotiations with Zelensky)
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Turkey
ru → en

Dmitry Demushkin

Nah, there’s no chance of a rate cut at all. In response to the question: "What do you think about the key interest rate? Nabiullina didn’t lower it on April 25."
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Dmitry Demushkin

The market reaction is one thing. The European ultimatum, which Peskov commented on regarding the ceasefire, is another. And the meeting in Istanbul is a third. As for the fundamental and main question — will there be peace? In my opinion, no. Because the positions of the two sides differ drastically.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ekaterina Kotrikadze

And Grigory Melkonyants will be released, I’m sure of it, and he will continue to monitor fair elections in Russia. I just hope the viewers don’t take me for a naive, silly girl — I’m truly convinced of this.
Expected
#Russia #Elections
ru → en

Roman Kostenko

To be honest, I find it hard to believe that Putin will come, because I don’t see it happening — and I think he’s afraid of direct negotiations, especially on neutral ground, where there will be no propaganda, no support, and he’ll have to sit at the same table with Zelensky. I think Putin is afraid, so I doubt he’ll come. In response to the question: "What’s your prediction? Will Putin come?" (To Istanbul on May 15 for talks with Zelensky)
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Zelensky #Turkey
ru → en

Vyacheslav Maltsev

China will not allow the U.S. to regain its status as a global leader. It will never allow it again. And China will inevitably destroy the entire European civilization. There won’t be even the faintest hint of human freedom — it won’t leave any. China is total cyber-tyranny for everyone.
Expected
#China #USA #Europe
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Putin responded during the night with his proposal for a meeting on May 15 in Istanbul. We've seen Zelensky's response... Will Putin agree or not? My personal opinion is that, of course, he won’t come, and of course, nothing will happen. Putin will not come to Istanbul on May 15 for negotiations with Zelensky.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Zelensky #Turkey
ru → en

Vitaly Portnikov

I'm not sure that the United States will unilaterally recognize a Palestinian state... That’s too radical a step. But I think the Saudis will insist on it.
Expected
#USA #Palestine #Saudi Arabia
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

I consider that a far-fetched scenario. I would see it as a serious mistake on Trump’s part if he tries to do it. In response to the question: "Do you think he will run for another term? Will he seek re-election?"
Expected
#Trump #USA #Elections
ru → en

Ekaterina Kotrikadze

It seems to me that he is considering taking this risky step — the step of signing a truce with Ukraine. I don’t know whether he will go to Istanbul or not; I admit that he might. Of course, I agree that there’s a 99.9% chance he won’t go, but still, I allow for the possibility that it could happen. 99.9% chance that Putin will not go to the negotiations with Zelensky in Istanbul on May 15.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Turkey
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

It's obvious that Iran is stalling, and has been for years—more than a decade. And all of this will end the way we want it to: with the physical destruction of Iran’s nuclear program, nuclear weapons, and missile systems.
Expected
#Iran #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Ariel Cohen

I'm shocked when someone opens their mouth and says that we need to deal with Hamas, we need to deal with Iran, and that dismantling Iran’s enrichment system by the Iranians themselves is preferable to bombing those facilities. Iran will never, ever agree to a complete dismantling of the entire system. I’m willing to bet a bottle of whatever you name that Iran itself will not go for full dismantling. On Iran's uranium enrichment systems.
Expected
#Iran #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Mikhail Fishman

It would be comfortable if Trump negotiated everything, lifted the sanctions, and personally said that Crimea belongs to Russia — but that’s unlikely to happen. In response to the question: "Does Putin feel comfortable in this situation? Is he in a panic? Or is it a mix?"
Expected
#Ukraine #Russia #Trump #Putin
ru → en

Alexander Gabuev

In my view, it is impossible to reach any kind of agreement right now. No matter what level the delegations are represented at—even if Putin himself comes, which I highly doubt—Putin has been saying from the very beginning that the Ukrainian president is illegitimate. (Putin will not attend the negotiations in Istanbul.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Zelensky #Turkey
ru → en

Mikhail Fishman

Zelensky will cancel his decree, and Putin — if he wants to. He simply doesn’t want to. We must gradually begin to let go of the illusion of these negotiations and realize that, in reality, they’ve already fallen apart. On the potential negotiations between Ukraine and Russia — or between Zelensky and Putin personally — in the near future. And even if they do happen, they will lead to nothing.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Zelensky #Putin
ru → en

Mikhail Fishman

Essentially, the 30-day ceasefire has fallen through. Accordingly, there are no sanctions, as we can see. Technically, the ultimatum is nearing its end, time hasn’t fully run out yet. But it’s almost obvious that Europe won’t impose sanctions, because it doesn’t know what to do. The idea was to act in coordination with Washington, but Washington is saying unclear things. Regarding Europe’s ultimatum to Russia to agree to a 30-day ceasefire, or face new sanctions.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Europe #Economy #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Bogdan Bakaleyko

I think the pressure on Putin will increase, and he will feel it. I still don’t believe he’ll bend under that pressure... He needs to keep on fighting. The military budget shows no signs of shrinking. Digital draft notices have been activated... All in all, I don’t believe the war will end.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Bogdan Bakaleyko

I don’t believe he’ll come. In response to the question: "In short, I think Putin will have to come up with something more impressive. And what can he do except act tough and show up in Istanbul on Thursday? What do you think will happen?"
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Turkey
ru → en

Dmitry Gordon

We are in for the most momentous events this very week. Every single day this week will be exceptional. In just over four hours, it's zero hour. And we’ll see what happens. We are witnessing history.
Did not come true
ru → en