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Predictions and promises monitor

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Authors
370
Predictions
2305
Verified
884
Came true
65%
Complex
53%
Confident
49%
Predictions Author Ranking
All Expected Expected soon New results

Yuri Felshtinsky

First of all, I expect that there will be an attempt to amend the U.S. Constitution to allow Trump to stay for another term.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Ian Matveev

I don’t think Ukraine will give up all four regions, of course. In response to the question: "Will Ukraine agree to give up all four regions in exchange for peace and security guarantees?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

In my opinion, Trump will not withdraw from NATO, but he will strongly pressure Europe to increase military spending to 5% of GDP, which is absolutely impossible.
Expected
#NATO #USA #European Union
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

I usually don’t give investment advice, but just take a look at the stocks of European defense companies—they will definitely keep growing, 100%.
Expected
#Europe #Economy
ru → en

Yevgeny Popov

Blinovskaya will likely be released earlier than the court-appointed term. She has compensated for the damages, admitted guilt (partially), and has young children. An appeal or parole will work in her favor.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Vitaly Portnikov

Well, Rubio is a disaster... In a couple of months, he’ll be thrown out for failing to live up to all of Trump’s illusions.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Anatoly Nesmiyan

It is already clear that Trump will not sign anything with Zelensky (well, let’s leave a 1-2 percent chance for an extreme scenario—though an alien arrival seems like a slightly more likely scenario).
Expected
#Trump #Zelensky #USA #Ukraine #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Oleksiy Arestovych

But the real issue of the conflict is the lack of security guarantees that Zelensky is demanding—guarantees that neither Trump, nor Vance, nor Biden, nor anyone else can provide. There will never be security guarantees… Security guarantees are impossible in this situation. They will not happen, not ever, under any circumstances.
Expected
#Ukraine #USA #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Olena Kurbanova

Donald Trump will not serve out his full term. I am more than certain that he will not be president for four years.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

I don’t think the European Union will disappear. I believe it will shift significantly to the right. The discussion is not about its dissolution but rather about a form of modernization, a change in rules, and a shift in the elites that control the European Union. In response to the question: "How much time does the EU have left as a union of states?"
Expected
#European Union
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Trump's mistake was underestimating Zelensky and broadcasting that conversation. The Europeans outplayed the Americans. The war will continue for a long time—at least until 2028. The war in Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Dmitry Bykov

As for Arestovych’s future, my prediction is quite simple—he will disappear without a trace, and endless expeditions will search for him in the depths of the Amazon…
Expected
#Ukraine
ru → en

Vitaly Dymarsky

I believe that Netanyahu will not leave the Gaza Strip until he receives full guarantees that it has ceased to be a hub of hatred toward Israel and as long as there is even the slightest threat coming from there.
Expected
#Israel #Israel-Hamas war #Gaza
ru → en

Vitaly Dymarsky

I think that, of course, one of the outcomes of these processes will be Zelensky’s departure in one way or another.
Expected
#Zelensky #Ukraine
ru → en

Vladislav Inozemtsev

He has engaged in war on multiple fronts simultaneously, which, in my opinion, is a catastrophic mistake. His actions are purely impulsive. The level of his team has turned out to be absolutely abysmal. That’s why I believe he will not last until the end of his term—and maybe he won’t even survive. Trump.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Gennady Gudkov

No, it will not end—it may pause or simply come to a halt. The war cannot end as long as Putin is in the Kremlin. It will continue in one form or another. Even if it stops in Ukraine, then Georgia, Armenia, Moldova, and possibly Kazakhstan should prepare. In response to the question: "Do you think the war will end in 2025?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Sergey Aleksashenko

I don't really understand whether this deal can actually be implemented or not. And I have serious doubts that it will even start working before the end of Donald Trump's presidential term. (The deal between the U.S. and Ukraine on rare earth metals.)
Expected
#USA #Ukraine #Economy
ru → en

Mark Feygin

He will not achieve peace with Moscow because he cannot make such a peace at Ukraine’s expense. He cannot. That is not what he promised, that is not what is expected of him, and he does not have the authority to do so. Trump.
Expected
#Trump #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia
ru → en

Oleksiy Arestovych

Remember this tweet. It contains the rules and outlines of the new world. Everything stated below has already been decided and will be announced soon. A Ukraine Reconstruction Fund will be established, with the U.S., Russia, and China as its shareholders. The initial capital will consist of $40 billion from the U.S., $40 billion from Russia, and $20 billion from China. Later, this Fund will absorb $350 billion from Russia (frozen assets), while the U.S. considers that it has already contributed $350 billion (this is the exact figure Trump mentioned). But that’s not all. Over time, the U.S. will contribute another $350 billion, China—around $200 billion, along with additional contributions from the royal dynasties of the Persian Gulf. The total size of the Fund is expected to reach $1 trillion.
Expected
#Ukraine #USA #Russia #China #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Mark Feygin

This is a left-liberal award for its own— not for outsiders, but for its own. That doesn’t make it better or worse. It’s simply a prize given only to those whom the liberal community considers acceptable to honor with such awards. It’s not necessarily the most deserving individuals. This is also a political tool. Trump is not part of this circle; he will never receive a Nobel Prize. Never.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

The situation is truly strange. Russia has given nothing, yet the Americans have offered it mountains of gold. I don’t think any of this will come to pass. Russia will do nothing, and the Americans will lift nothing from it.
Expected
#Russia #USA
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

Most likely, in March, we will see a reversal of the trend toward the ruble’s depreciation. Otherwise, there will be a huge problem with filling the Russian Federation’s budget.
Expected
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Dmitry Gubin

I am not afraid of the collapse of the European Union. It seems inevitable to me, at least in the form we know it today with 27 countries. But that does not mean the end of the EU. It means that a reconfiguration will take place.
Expected
#European Union
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

Something tells me that Trump is planning to run for another term, despite the relevant amendment to the U.S. Constitution.
Expected
#Trump #USA #Elections
ru → en

Leonid Ivashov

The Americans have realized that there is no need to oppose Russia. Russia does not pose a threat to them, even through Europe. And NATO will be dissolved.
Expected
#NATO
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

It seems that in 2025, Saudi Arabia will join the Abraham Accords, and this, in itself, will become a key guarantee of peace in the Middle East.
Expected
#Saudi Arabia #Middle East
ru → en

Ian Matveev

And most likely, indeed, if the war continues further, a second wave of mobilization will be inevitable. They are functionally fully prepared for it; the only thing left will be to somehow mitigate the political risks. In Russia.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Milana Petrova

I don't know why so many people have such wild fantasies about the return of brands, but to me, it’s completely obvious. Not a single major company or brand that shut down business in Russia will return in the next 10+ years. It's impossible. It simply won’t happen.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Andrey Buzarov

As for the possible end of the war, I have a very clear position on this issue—as an expert, as a political scientist, a scholar in the field of political science. I see no prerequisites whatsoever, absolutely none, in any format, that would indicate a trend toward ending the war. The war in Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mikhail Katsyn

My guest is Dmitry Valeryevich Potapenko, a well-known public figure, politician, entrepreneur, and, in recent months, a foreign agent—though I am sure that this honorary title will soon be ceremoniously lifted from Dmitry Valeryevich Potapenko.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Dmitry Gordon

At the negotiations between Trump and Putin, which I am sure will take place by the end of February.
Did not come true
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

There are currently rumors about a ceasefire being introduced on Easter, April 20, which is in two months. I have almost no doubt that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will hold the Kursk front until then. This means that Putin will have to trade the Kursk region for something else.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

If the Americans step in for Taiwan and defend it as they have promised, it could result in a devastating military defeat for China—literally a catastrophe—that would completely shut down the idea of bringing Taiwan back into China’s fold. Completely. Therefore, in theory, they should not decide on such an action in the near future.
Expected
#Taiwan #China #USA
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

My main demand is that America must apologize for proposing that we sign this predatory agreement, for attempting to rob us at a crucial moment. I was genuinely outraged by the White House representative's words. I believe that America will have to apologize for this. The U.S. will apologize to Ukraine for proposing the resource extraction agreement in the form it was presented during the Munich Conference in February 2025.
Expected
#USA #Ukraine
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

There will be neither a second term for Trump nor a successor to whom he will transfer power. Completely different people will come to power and reject everything from the past.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Yaakov Kedmi

No war in the Middle East is expected in the near future because there is no one left to fight against us. Against Israel.
Expected
#Israel #Middle East
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

And the reason for this is that it’s yet another message to Tehran—look, the bombs have arrived, we are ready, so think faster about the deal before it's too late. And this whole media wave about Israel striking in the coming months, but no later than May-June, is a threat meant to push the Iranians to quickly accept Trump’s generous offer. They won’t agree, so these bombs will come in handy.
Expected
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

In any case, Alternative for Germany, according to my forecast, will gain a maximum of 22%. That’s how it seems to me, though I could be wrong.
Completely came true
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Igor Eidman

By summer, I believe Germany will step up and significantly increase its support for Ukraine, especially if the Americans do not resume their aid.
Expected
#Germany #Ukraine #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Vitaly Dymarsky

I think that Musk will either calm down soon or he will be removed.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

Yes, Trump will dismantle NATO. Let’s not have any doubts, let’s not hesitate or say, "Maybe he won’t." He will. He will.
Expected
#NATO #Trump #USA
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

The year 2025 is critical. If Russia does not cease active military operations this year, the total collapse of its economy will begin.
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Igor Strelkov

We suffered a diplomatic defeat even before the negotiations began—that's a fact. As for what this will lead to, whether the war will continue or not—I have my own particular opinion on this, which I have already expressed. I believe that at the very least, there will still be a spring-summer campaign, and the fighting will continue. After that, we’ll see.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

There will be no scenario where Putin openly and publicly appoints a successor and then gradually hands over power to him.
Expected
#Putin #Russia
ru → en

Sergey Vakulenko

I think it is extremely unlikely. I believe such hopes, partly schadenfreude-driven, are naive and unrealistic. It will not happen. In response to the remark: "Your reasoning makes me consider an extreme scenario, such as the collapse of the European Union..."
Expected
#European Union
ru → en

Olena Kurbanova

I am more than certain, and I am ready to compare the results later, that by the end of 2025, no matter what anyone writes or spreads, the war will not end. The war in Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

This is related to the anticipation of the presidential elections in Ukraine. It is already clear that the elections will take place within the next six months at most.
Expected
#Ukraine #Elections
ru → en

Michael Nacke

DeepState focuses on the situation in Zaporizhzhia—referring to a village on the western flank of the Pokrovsk direction, not the city of the same name, which Russian forces have not yet reached and most likely never will.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

Another unpleasant conclusion: there will be no more exchanges of political prisoners for spies. Trump is only willing to trade for his own guys—everything else means nothing to him. Unfortunately, this is very bad news.
Expected
#USA #Russia #Trump
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

The elections in Ukraine are now obviously going to happen, but something tells me that Zelensky’s main problem is not Poroshenko at all. Rather, it is his increasingly apparent unsuitability for this position—both for Trump and for Putin. All parties involved in the deal would prefer to see someone as president of Ukraine who has made no prior commitments, has never called anyone a murderer, and has not made hundreds of other statements that are now awkward for the high-level negotiating sides. So, I would bet that Zelensky will either lose the election or suddenly decide not to run, so as not to cast a shadow over the brave new world.
Expected
#Ukraine #Zelensky #Elections
ru → en

Ramis Yunus

Ukraine must count on the fact that the world will never recognize this annexation. As for the statements that the defense minister said there can be no return to 2014—I’m sorry, but your president also said that today we cannot, we do not have the capabilities for that. But the defense minister did not say that they recognize this as Russian territory. That will not happen, you can be sure of it—that will never happen. Neither Donald Trump, nor his defense minister, nor any congressman or senator will ever say this out loud.
Expected
#Ukraine #USA #War in Ukraine #Trump
ru → en

Vitaly Portnikov

We will witness the trial of Elon Musk, where he will be sentenced to 25 years in prison for exploiting employees of high-tech agencies of Tesla. And we will stand in support of Elon Musk.
Expected
#USA
ru → en