screenshot

The Central Bank will lower the rate at the next meeting, I believe not just to 20%, but even lower. In Russia.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

Let’s say inflation is above 15%, GDP drops by 1–1.5%, the budget is cut by 10%, and the standard of living declines. If we define that as a crisis, then the probability of it happening... in the second half of next year, the probability is around 15–20%. In response to the question: “How would you assess the probability of a crisis happening this year or next?”
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

Let’s say inflation is above 15%, GDP drops by 1–1.5%, the budget is cut by 10%, and the standard of living declines. If we define that as a crisis, then the probability of it happening this year is 0%, and in the second half of next year, the probability is around 15–20%. In response to the question: “How would you assess the probability of a crisis happening this year or next?”
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

And we’ll see a downward trend that will reach 15 percent by the New Year. Continuing from the previous statement: “The Central Bank will lower the rate at the next meeting, I believe not just to 20%, but even lower.”
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

Bank defaults will not be allowed. In Russia, in 2025.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

I don’t see any prospects of a serious banking crisis. Let’s wait until the end of the year and do another stream like this in January 2026. As for hyperinflation — I don’t think it will happen.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

For some reason, Trump is afraid of Putin. I think he won’t want to anger Putin with new sanctions... Imposing sanctions against Putin is not something Trump would do. He simply won’t.
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA

As for Crimea, in my opinion, after 11 years of occupation, it is already clear that Crimea will never be internationally recognized as Russian territory. It will never happen. The only thing Russia can count on is the occasional whims of individual leaders.
#Ukraine #Russia

I still believe that two major figures dominate the political stage — Zelensky and Valerii Fedorovych Zaluzhnyi. And only one of them, not both, will run for president.
#Ukraine #Zelensky

Direct negotiations can only begin under a ceasefire. Between Russia and Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

And I think that the militarization of Europe — the increase in defense spending, if not up to 5% of GDP, then at least to 3.5% — will lead to certain shifts in this area, particularly to an increase in the retirement age.
#European Union

I think we can confidently predict that at the next meeting the rate will also remain unchanged, and this will continue until the end of the summer — I believe until around August. The Central Bank of Russia will not change the key rate until the end of summer.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

Trump said: "I want to meet with Putin right away. The inauguration is now, and I want to meet with Putin immediately." And everyone was speculating whether he would meet with Putin or Zelensky first. I said they wouldn’t meet before summer. And now, my prediction just has one more month to hold.
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia

So my prediction is that most likely America will not back out, will not withdraw from the process next week... And most likely, Trump will continue to maintain the role of mediator, even if his position shifts — he still won’t leave.
#War in Ukraine #USA #Trump #Ukraine #Russia

Whether the United States recognizes Crimea as part of Ukraine or not does not depend on Zelensky — it depends on the United States. And most likely, they will recognize Crimea as Russian.
#USA #Ukraine #Russia

I have absolutely no doubt that we will return to Russia.
#Russia

On Monday, Trump will impose maximum sanctions against more than 200 senior Ukrainian officials, including Zelensky himself.
#Ukraine #Trump #USA #Economy

My prediction was that the war would not end this year. I still hold the same opinion.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

As before, I still believe that the resources for continuing high-intensity combat operations are not unlimited for either side — neither for the aggressor, the Russian Federation, nor for the defending Ukraine. Therefore, I still maintain my opinion that in the first half of this year, a ceasefire agreement, under one scenario or another, will be reached.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Putin will inevitably open up military contracts for women at some point, because he doesn’t even have enough forces — not to conquer foreign territories, but just to contain Ukraine.
#Russia #Putin #War in Ukraine

And if Trump pulls out and the situation in Ukraine sharply deteriorates militarily — and he realizes that this deterioration is giving him the image of a weak president — then I assure you, he’ll come right back and start defending that image. If these negotiations fail, he’ll keep going in circles: pulled out, came back; pulled out, came back. “Pulls out” here refers to withdrawing from negotiations over the war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #Russia #USA

I think tomorrow the rate will be lowered to 20%, but no one will feel any better because of it :(
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

Ukraine is eager to claim that after Ukraine, Putin will go after Europe — Germany, Finland, the Baltic states. That’s not the case.
#Russia #Europe #Ukraine #Putin

Here’s my prediction — Witkoff will be in prison after Trump’s term ends. Trump won’t be, but Witkoff will be behind bars for decades. If we live long enough, we’ll see it with our own eyes.
#USA

It will definitely happen, it will definitely happen! In response to the question: "We need your prediction — will there be a war between India and Pakistan?"
#India #Pakistan

Pete Hegseth is about to lose his position any day now. Remember this tweet. Well, maybe not literally any day — but soon, Pete Hegseth will no longer be at the head of the Pentagon.
#USA

Putin will not agree to any conditions that would allow Ukraine to no longer fear a military invasion. He would rather give up certain settlements than agree to any security guarantees for Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

I think he will run for re-election — for him, it’s almost a matter of life and death. The Ukrainian political landscape is quite toxic for former presidents. I believe that a lot could be held against Volodymyr Zelensky after the war ends.
#Zelensky #Ukraine #Elections

When it comes to Crimea, which clearly isn’t returning to Ukraine within the next decade.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

So, they won’t be lifted precisely because Crimea will not be recognized as Russian. Sanctions on Russia will not be lifted.
#Russia #European Union #Economy of Russia #Economy

We’re looking at the Russian economy. And we’re confident that by fall or winter, due to objective economic reasons, we will pressure Russia into making serious concessions. No four regions, no official recognition of Crimea or other occupied territories. A ceasefire along the line of contact, an international monitoring contingent. No reduction of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, no reduction of missiles or aircraft, no adoption of laws favorable to Russia. Nothing. That’s what we will push them to — firmly and definitively — by fall or winter.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

No, I don’t think that’s possible. I’m not sure about the U.S., but the European Union and the United Kingdom definitely have no intention of lifting any sanctions. And overall, this whole idea of a truce seems like a fabrication to me. In response to the question: "Mr. Browder, do you think the West might lift some sanctions on Russia in the foreseeable future?"
#Russia #European Union #Economy

If Bastion starts getting blocked, a lot on the Internet will begin to go down. I don’t think it’s worth the trouble. That’s why I believe Bastion will keep working for a long time. It won’t be blocked.
#Internet #Censorship #Russia

Oil has dropped. And it most likely won’t go back up.
#Oil #Economy #Russia #Economy of Russia

Oil would be at $45–47 now. It had already approached $52. It’s clear that the actual transaction prices for Russian oil had already dropped below $50. But Trump lacked the resolve. And a reduction in Russia’s export revenues could have already triggered this devaluation in the very near future. But so far, the price has dropped by a maximum of $12–15. That’s still relatively okay, not bad — but not enough for us to see the devaluation that will happen anyway. It will happen by the end of the year. It will happen in the summer. It could have already started in April. This is about the ruble.
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

There will be public crackdowns on big business... large corporations, banks. There will be a lot of these high-profile attacks, just to shift the blame for what's happening in the economy. But I still expect that at some point — in 2025 — Elvira Nabiullina will have to resign, no matter what. They’ll have to make her the scapegoat.
#Russia #Economy

The dollar is no longer as good an investment option as it used to be. The euro is strengthening now. In the short term, it’s probably worth investing in euros. The euro will be worth more relative to the dollar.
#Dollar #Euro #Economy

I don’t believe they’ll be unfrozen. In response to the question: "Will foreign stocks be unfrozen?"
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy

Gas and oil are likely to be not very expensive in the near future.
#Oil #Gas #Economy

I don’t really believe that the EU and the U.S. will impose sanctions on liquefied natural gas from Russia, simply because the main company supplying LNG to Europe — Novatek — operates the Arctic LNG project in a consortium with a French company and a Chinese one.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy #European Union #France #China

The probability is about 80 to 20 that a ceasefire will happen. There will be some kind of deal by the end of the year — maybe even sooner. Based on how I feel, it’s bound to happen. In response to the question: "Will the war end this year?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I still think that in this situation, the composition of the administration will gradually change. As we’ve discussed, some people will drop out. In their place will come increasingly polished, proper, predictable, non-confrontational Republicans — from among senators and congressmen. I think the eccentricity will gradually, step by step — not immediately — be done away with. Talking about the U.S. presidential administration.
#USA

In February, I was in Munich and I clearly heard conversations within the American delegation and among European politicians that April 20 would definitely be the point when a truce would take place. Now it’s April 21, and it hasn’t happened. My prediction is that, in some form, we will still see something — if not a truce, then at least a freeze — before the end of the year. All sides are interested in it.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Although I expect that at some point Trump will fire Rubio.
#Trump #USA

Over all these years, despite the fact that Trump has managed to insult virtually every well-known political figure at least once — with or without reason — he has never said a single bad word about Putin. He hasn’t, and he won’t.
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia

Lately, a lot of attention has been focused on the TV channel "Yu", so I think it doesn’t have much time left, unfortunately.
#Russia

That's the situation with the truce. As you can see, it’s over, and now the shelling has resumed. I don't expect any strong reaction from the U.S. The Kremlin will now say, “Look, Ukraine is not capable of making agreements, it violated the truce.” Most likely, there won’t even be much of a reaction from the American administration. And that’s how this Easter truce came to an end.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA

The war will continue until the bitter end, until one of the sides loses the ability to resist.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Putin has stirred up such a mess that it will take a very long time to pay for it... I still don’t believe at all that a peace treaty will be signed.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

No, I don’t believe it. Putin is very much interested in the war. The longer the war goes on, the fewer questions he’ll face from his own people. In response to the question: "Do you believe Putin would be willing to stop the war, to bring it to an end?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

It’s hard to say what will happen. When will it happen? What will happen to this regime in the coming years if Putin remains in power? He will stay in power as long as he’s alive.
#Putin #Russia

My prediction is very cautious: Trump won’t impose any significant sanctions to punish Moscow, even if it does come to that.
#Russia #Trump #Economy

I don’t think such a breakthrough is possible at this point... As of now, the collapse of the Ukrainian front doesn’t seem possible to me. In response to the question: "Is a breakthrough of the front by Russia possible?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

It’s kind of like the Korean scenario — that’s what awaits the war in Ukraine. Wherever the front line runs, that’s where it gets fixed, and that’s where a sort of border appears — not a state border, but a de facto one. Naturally, Ukraine won’t recognize those territories as Russian, even in the best-case scenario... But I strongly doubt that this will all end in 2025. To be honest, I really doubt it. In response to the question: "Is there a chance the fighting will end this year, and what is your opinion on the territorial issue?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

They don’t need to occupy anything. Siberia will fall into their hands absolutely for free. In 50 years — at most 50 — there simply won’t be any people left in that region of Russia... The population is shrinking, and rapidly. In 50 years, there will be no one left there... I’m 52, and my grandchildren will quite possibly witness how all of Siberia becomes Chinese. I’m absolutely sure of that. In response to the question: "Does China have enough military strength to occupy Siberia?"
#Russia #China

First of all, probably such a truce still won’t happen — 99%. In response to the question: "Is a 30-day extended truce possible?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Unfortunately, it must be stated that the war will continue despite the temporary truce introduced by Vladimir Putin. In honor of Easter, he announced a unilateral ceasefire. Since then, the temporary ceasefire has been violated. Putin has already stated that the ceasefire will not be extended. Unfortunately, Trump’s peace plan has failed.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump

I think he will keep trying to stop this war for a long time — until he succeeds. In response to the question: "How long will Trump keep trying to stop the war? When might he say he's washing his hands of it, that he’s done everything he could, and from now on it’s up to others — America is no longer interested?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA

In the near future, those supermassive black holes that exist in nearly every galaxy — including our own — will not be able to absorb any stars, galaxies, let alone the Universe itself, for tens of billions of years to come.
#Space #Science and technology

In war, nothing is ever known in advance. Otherwise, the two sides wouldn’t be fighting. If nothing gets signed next week — and in my view, the chances of that are quite low.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

The unilateral Christmas truce declared by Putin in 2023 ended in nothing and has been forgotten. The current one has a chance to last a bit longer and even become the first step toward something greater. However, that chance is minimized by the abruptness of the move, which turns it more into an argument in a debate with skeptics in Trump’s circle and a fast-acting remedy for disappointment. If Ukraine responds positively to the proposal, it will make it somewhat less convenient for Moscow to break the truce. But even in this case, Russia still retains almost the same level of freedom to act. The lack of on-the-ground control offers plenty of opportunities to accuse the opponent of violating the truce and to proceed at its own discretion. Especially since, most likely, Moscow will make the continuation of the pause conditional on the immediate halt of arms deliveries and mobilization on the Ukrainian side.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Let’s get back to the Trump administration. What’s next? I think that’s it. Basically, next week or in a couple of weeks, they’ll officially take offense — like, “if you’re so ungrateful and forgot to thank us, then we’re not going to do anything.” The Trump administration will soon withdraw from efforts to resolve the war between Russia and Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Trump

Back on the 6th–7th, that truce was nothing more than a statement. No one even tried to pretend it existed. It’s hard to predict. But I’ll probably be right if I say that in this case it will be more or less the same — we’ll see all those insane attempts to continue the assaults, just as they’ve been carried out over the past couple of years, in columns on bicycles and other motorcycles. And none of it will fit into the framework of a truce. He’s saying that the Easter truce announced by Putin won’t be observed, just like the Christmas truce in 2023 wasn’t.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

They are unfeasible. There will be no peace. All serious politicians in Europe already understand that. In response to the question: "The U.S. proposed that Europe ease sanctions against Russia in the event of a peaceful settlement in Ukraine. The U.S. also believes that the territories Russia captured during the war should remain under Moscow’s control. These proposals have been voiced. Bloomberg reports on this. How feasible are they?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia