screenshot

Predictions and promises monitor

| About
en | ru | Author Ranking | Telegram

Yuri Fedorov

Military expert (Russia, Czech Republic)

Predictions
34
Verified
15
Came true
67%
Complex
40%
Confident
33%
Rating
5.78
All Expected Expected soon New results

Yuri Fedorov

After the strike on Russian airbases, Russia probably has, at most, 50 operational carriers left, including Tu-160 bombers — which the Russians are unlikely to risk using in the war against Ukraine. Well, it's hard to say.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

During this year's summer campaign, I'm not sure that Russian forces will be able to accomplish the tasks set before them and create any significant buffer zone 10–15–20 km deep and stretching along the entire border of the Sumy region — no, that's unlikely.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

Answer to the question: Will there be a mobilization? My answer is: most likely, yes — because the generals are persistent people, and for Putin, Ukraine is the main enemy, something that must be destroyed. And as for the people, the National Guard and the valiant security services will take care of them.
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

Taking Zaporizhzhia or taking Dnipro won’t work for the Russians — I’m saying that in advance. Because capturing a major city is an extremely complex operation, fraught with massive losses.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

Let’s imagine that Russian troops really do approach Zaporizhzhia and the battle for the city begins. Do you think the Armed Forces of Ukraine would leave those bridges across the Dnipro — I believe there are three of them — intact? In my view, the likelihood of that is zero.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

Over the past month, there’s been a kind of offensive stirring of Russian troops. And overall, it’s clear they’re probably planning to move toward Zaporizhzhia. Will it work? Only God knows. I think it won’t work out.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

If the pace of the offensive does not change—and, generally speaking, I personally see no reason to believe it will, referring to the Russian offensive—then, in the foreseeable future, meaning within a few months, it is clear that Putin will not achieve one of his most politically significant goals. In the coming months, the Russian army will not push the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of the Kursk region.
Did not come true
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

Honestly, I don’t think there will be permission. In response to the question: "What do you think will happen with the permission regarding long-range missiles?" (Will the U.S. grant permission for Ukraine to use long-range missiles on Russian territory?)
Did not come true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

Until the end of the autumn campaign, which is about a month from now, Russian forces will likely continue advancing. It appears that a significant part of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) will be pushed out of the Kursk region, although perhaps not completely. At least, all recent trends seem to point in this direction.
Almost came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

Now these explosions of pagers and other devices. I think it's not a coincidence that they happened... the fact that they occurred indicates that the war is about to start in earnest. The war between Israel and Hezbollah.
Completely came true
#Israel #Hezbollah #Lebanon
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

The point of taking Pokrovsk would be to launch operations from there... if they ever manage to take it, which I highly doubt. The Russian army is unlikely to capture Pokrovsk.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

I also assume that this will happen, and it will most likely happen sooner or later. The answer to the question: 'Why doesn't the Armed Forces of Ukraine occupy the Glushkovsky district (of the Kursk region)?'
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

I don't think so. The answer to the question: 'How necessary are strikes deep into the territory (of Russia) beyond the 100 km zone for the Armed Forces of Ukraine right now... Do you think that before the elections in the USA, before the beginning of November, such permission from Washington to Kyiv could be obtained?'
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

And such an operation, if it turns out to be successful, will indeed be successful. Because one special forces unit of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is enough to accomplish this task, which is the elimination of the Russian military presence, the Russian military grouping. If the Armed Forces of Ukraine want to, they will be able to eliminate the Russian military grouping in Transnistria.
Expected
#Ukraine #Russia #War in Ukraine #Moldova
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

To be honest, I doubt that Putin will announce mobilization. What do you think, will mobilization be announced or will Putin avoid it again? (The second mobilization in Russia)
Expected
#Russia #Putin #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

There are every reason to believe that in the next few days, or perhaps a week, this area south of the Seym River (which is essentially squeezed between the Seym River to the north and the border of the territory controlled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the east) will come under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Part of the territory of the Kursk region of Russia.
Did not come true
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

I think that the idea of storming Kharkiv or advancing towards Kyiv is not the most realistic idea. However, such an idea could be promoted by the Russian authorities as disinformation. There will not be a storming of Kharkiv by Russia.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

I think they will give them. There are certain considerations here. Response to the question: "So, Yuri Evgenyevich, do you think they will provide ATACMS?"
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

The only thing that can currently unite the FSB, the army, and the civilian bureaucracy is the desire to remove Prigozhin. He will be removed. He will die in a car accident or some other unfortunate situation.
Completely came true
#Russia
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

Well, I think that sooner or later something similar to what happened on October 10 will happen again, yes. Some kind of explosion occurred. Referring to the fact that the Crimean (Kerch) Bridge will be damaged again. The previous incident was not on the 10th, but on the 8th of October.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

No, I don't think there will be a Serbian-Kosovo war... The Serbs really want to join the European Union
Expected
#Serbia #Kosovo
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

Yes, we assume so. That the third defeat for Russia (after the de-occupation of the Kharkiv region and Kherson) will be Melitopol.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

I think that this is practically impossible. For the Armed Forces of Ukraine to advance from the right bank of the Dnieper to the left bank in the area of Kherson.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

I think that a confrontation with NATO will end very badly for Russia.
Expected
#Russia #NATO
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

Will the Russians be able to reach the border of the Donetsk region in the foreseeable future or not... I actually think they won't, at least not in the near future.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en