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Predictions and promises monitor

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#Trump

Authors
95
Predictions
197
Verified
50
Came true
56%
Complex
40%
Confident
38%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Vladimir Milov

For some reason, Trump is afraid of Putin. I think he won’t want to anger Putin with new sanctions... Imposing sanctions against Putin is not something Trump would do. He simply won’t.
Expected
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

Trump said: "I want to meet with Putin right away. The inauguration is now, and I want to meet with Putin immediately." And everyone was speculating whether he would meet with Putin or Zelensky first. I said they wouldn’t meet before summer. And now, my prediction just has one more month to hold.
Expected
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

So my prediction is that most likely America will not back out, will not withdraw from the process next week... And most likely, Trump will continue to maintain the role of mediator, even if his position shifts — he still won’t leave.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #USA #Trump #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Win/Win

On Monday, Trump will impose maximum sanctions against more than 200 senior Ukrainian officials, including Zelensky himself.
Expected
#Ukraine #Trump #USA #Economy
ru → en

Boris Pastukhov

And if Trump pulls out and the situation in Ukraine sharply deteriorates militarily — and he realizes that this deterioration is giving him the image of a weak president — then I assure you, he’ll come right back and start defending that image. If these negotiations fail, he’ll keep going in circles: pulled out, came back; pulled out, came back. “Pulls out” here refers to withdrawing from negotiations over the war in Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

Over all these years, despite the fact that Trump has managed to insult virtually every well-known political figure at least once — with or without reason — he has never said a single bad word about Putin. He hasn’t, and he won’t.
Expected
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

My prediction is very cautious: Trump won’t impose any significant sanctions to punish Moscow, even if it does come to that.
Expected
#Russia #Trump #Economy
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

Unfortunately, it must be stated that the war will continue despite the temporary truce introduced by Vladimir Putin. In honor of Easter, he announced a unilateral ceasefire. Since then, the temporary ceasefire has been violated. Putin has already stated that the ceasefire will not be extended. Unfortunately, Trump’s peace plan has failed.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

I think he will keep trying to stop this war for a long time — until he succeeds. In response to the question: "How long will Trump keep trying to stop the war? When might he say he's washing his hands of it, that he’s done everything he could, and from now on it’s up to others — America is no longer interested?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

Let’s get back to the Trump administration. What’s next? I think that’s it. Basically, next week or in a couple of weeks, they’ll officially take offense — like, “if you’re so ungrateful and forgot to thank us, then we’re not going to do anything.” The Trump administration will soon withdraw from efforts to resolve the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Trump
ru → en

Igor Eidman

Trump has a mess in his head. He doesn’t even know what he wants. He sets goals at the level of a child’s whims but has no idea how to achieve them. He just throws out some slogans like “Greenland is ours,” and then they frantically start thinking about how to make that whim come true. And it turns out, there’s no way to make it happen. And to understand that it’s unfeasible, they could’ve just asked ChatGPT — even it would have said that such things don’t happen in the modern world and that it’s simply not achievable. Trump will not take full control of Greenland or annex it to the U.S.
Expected
#USA #Trump #Greenland #Denmark
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

There’s a funny story — because of Trump’s tariffs, the U.S. trade balance won’t improve, but will actually worsen. That’s because of the global economic slowdown, falling oil prices, and the shutdown of oil production facilities in the U.S., which is an important part of American exports. They’ll be exporting less oil, which means their trade balance will get worse. In other words, Trump’s actions will lead to the exact opposite result.
Expected
#USA #Economy #Trump
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

The Iran issue ranks second. On Trump’s scale, I would give it a weight of 3 out of 10. We know that this issue will be resolved, and very quickly. The nuclear program will be stopped through negotiations.
Expected
#Iran #USA #Trump
ru → en

Abbas Gallyamov

I think Trump definitely won’t object to that... I can’t imagine Trump refusing to sell weapons. In response to the remark: "Ukraine is no longer asking for aid, but wants to buy weapons, and the Europeans are providing money for that."
Expected
#Ukraine #USA #Trump #Europe #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Tatyana Popova

Ukraine is no longer asking for aid, but wants to buy weapons, and the Europeans are providing money for that... It seems to me that, in the end, Trump will respond positively to the proposal.
Expected
#Ukraine #USA #Trump #Europe #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ramis Yunus

I can say this publicly—my opinion is that there definitely won’t be a full-scale war, nothing like "Desert Storm," nothing like what happened in Iraq with Saddam Hussein. That’s not going to happen. But a targeted strike on nuclear facilities... that would actually be good for him (Trump). A full-scale war in the Middle East involving the U.S. and Iran won’t happen, but targeted strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities are possible.
Expected
#Iran #USA #Middle East #Trump
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Over these 4 years, if Trump fails to achieve peaceful negotiations with Russia and Iran, then by the end of his term he might resort to war with Iran, for example.
Expected
#USA #Iran #Trump
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

I believe that unfortunately, Ukraine will be forced to accept the arrangement that will be agreed upon in negotiations mediated by Kirill Dmitriev and Steve Utkoff, and which will be finalized during a personal meeting between Presidents Putin and Trump. And Ukraine’s only trump card in this situation is military aid from Europe.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia #Putin #Trump
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Back in the summer of last year, I said that we would still see Trump in Tehran. And that’s most likely how it will be — just like we saw him meeting with Kim Jong Un.
Expected
#Trump #Iran #USA
ru → en

Tikhon Dzyadko

I'm hosting the morning broadcast tomorrow. I'm absolutely convinced that by the time of the morning show on Dozhd, there will be some comment from Trump about the strike on the city of Sumy. For some reason, I feel that, given his media activity and the number of meetings he has with journalists, someone will ask him about it — we'll see how he responds.
Completely came true
#Trump #USA #Ukraine #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Dmitry Gordon

I think it will die down. Trump's main goal is a tariff war with China and, more broadly, a struggle with China for global hegemony. In response to the question: "A question about the global tariff war. Do you think it will quiet down and fade away, or are we in for a second round?"
Expected
#Economy #USA #Trump
ru → en

Igor Aizenberg

He could be impeached for that. But I don’t think there will be enough Republican senators in the Senate to reach 67% of the votes for his removal. So he will remain president, and the next election will be in November 2028. Talking about Trump.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Igor Aizenberg

I don't think he would ever say out loud that he sees Russia as an adversary, or that Putin is a war criminal. That’s completely out of the question. Trump
Expected
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

Trump is serving his second term in presidential office, a second term in office. He won’t be president a third time... I’m sure that Trump won’t run for a third term.
Expected
#Trump #USA #Elections
ru → en

Win/Win

Not even the Minister of Economy went from Ukraine to the U.S. for negotiations on the resource deal — the highest-ranking official there is Deputy Minister Kachka. No one knows who that is. The Ukrainians once again brought a proposal the Americans are seeing for the first time. There will be no deal. Trump, you've been misled.
Expected
#Ukraine #USA #Economy #Trump
ru → en

Vyacheslav Maltsev

Trump will never go to war with China. He won't even go to war with Iran, believe me. The most he’s capable of is fighting the Houthis. Response to the question: "Slava, what do you think, will Trump give the green light for a ground operation against China?"
Expected
#USA #Iran #China #Trump
ru → en

Yevgeny Kiselyov

For some reason, I don’t believe that Trump’s lost patience will necessarily turn into a flow of weapons suddenly pouring from across the ocean into Europe and then into Ukraine. And I also find it hard to believe that he’ll impose any “from-hell” sanctions against Putin. It seems to me that he’ll simply lose interest in this recently obsessive idea of his — to achieve a ceasefire on the Ukrainian front as quickly as possible. I think he’ll just throw up his hands and walk away.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #Ukraine
ru → en

Win/Win

What does Trump want from China, raising tariffs on it every day? He’ll lower them eventually anyway.
Expected
#Trump #USA #China #Economy
ru → en

Bogdan Bakaleyko

I get the impression that, in the end, Donald Trump will come to an agreement and won’t continue to pressure the world.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Mikhail Kasyanov

The most likely scenario as I see it today — the one that's taking shape... President Trump, I think, by May or June at the latest, will realize that Putin is not capable of making agreements, and he'll start stepping away from the issue. Ukraine will no longer interest him. He’ll blame everything on the Europeans: “These are your problems — deal with them yourselves.”
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Trump won’t stay on in four years, no matter what anyone says about a third term or a swap with Vance. I don’t believe in that — I think there’s absolutely no chance.
Expected
#USA #Trump #Elections
ru → en

Michael Nacke

I don't rule it out—in fact, I believe it's a very likely scenario—that we will see the United States involved in some kind of armed conflict, not in Ukraine, but near its own neighbors or somewhere else. I think it will happen. And I also think it will be a loud fiasco.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

U.S. President Donald Trump recently even proposed a 50 percent cut in defense spending. He made this proposal to Russia and China. But of course, this is pure demagoguery. In reality, under Donald Trump’s administration, American defense spending will increase.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

For now, everything is being done for Putin — in favor of Putin, in the name of Putin, to support Putin. But nothing will come of it, in my opinion. So this will eventually lead to a tightening of sanctions against Russia. On the relationship between Trump and Putin
Expected
#Trump #Putin #Russia
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

If the defeat in the midterm elections is crushing, then he won’t make it to the end of the term. In response to the question: "In your opinion, will Trump serve out his full term?"
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Stanislav Kucher

My prediction remains the same as it was six months ago, three months ago, and a month ago — namely, that Trump will not achieve real peace in Ukraine. Putin will continue to escalate... Therefore, in 2025, I believe there will be no lasting peace between Russia and Ukraine. And even if, by some miracle, a 30-day ceasefire is agreed upon, it will be broken.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #Putin
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

No, they can't. Because the Democrats (Trump's enemies) don't have that kind of power. In response to the question: "Can they try to impeach Trump?"
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Ivan Preobrazhensky

One can be fairly certain about the upcoming negotiations: either it will once again be talks in Riyadh, or it will be a direct call between Putin and Trump — and they will finally come to some kind of agreement. Most likely, an energy agreement on non-strike commitments and a deal regarding the Black Sea will be signed. Because the Ukrainian side will agree to sign them.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia #Trump #Putin
ru → en

Mikhail Fishman

An increase in military support for Ukraine — it’s already clear that this won’t happen. Trump won’t do it, even though such proposals have been discussed.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Trump
ru → en

Mikhail Fishman

Trump will continue to build relations with Putin one way or another. Trump will simply start pulling out of the war in Ukraine. And it will end pretty soon because of that. That’s my prediction. And I would be glad to be wrong. It seems to me that soon, America will no longer be part of this war.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Trump #Russia
ru → en

Leonid Shvets

I don't think so, after all. In response to the question: "Will Trump break up NATO?"
Expected
#NATO #Trump
ru → en

Sergey Sanovich

If Trump tries, they won’t let him. That would require violating two constitutional amendments: not just the 22nd, which limits the number of terms, but also, it seems, the 12th, which concerns who can be vice president. A vice president can only be someone who is eligible to be president — and he isn’t. And I believe even the Supreme Court would rule that he can’t. But I don’t think he’ll even try — mainly because of his age.
Expected
#USA #2028 United States presidential election #Elections #Trump
ru → en

Valery Solovei

I think he will manage to resolve the Greenland issue. And there’s already a plan. A referendum is held in Greenland. According to the polling data we know, out of 90,000 eligible voters, the majority supports independence, and then Greenland declares a free association with the United States... The issue is resolved without the use of military force.
Expected
#Greenland #USA #Denmark #Trump
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

I think, in the end, VOA won't be shut down but will be drastically reduced and turned into something resembling Radio Beijing during Mao's era — broadcasting Trump’s wisdom and his Brilliant Ideas around the clock in all languages. VOA = Voice of America
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

This cannot go on for long. After a while, it will become obvious that peace is impossible. That Trump has only provoked Putin, making him more brazen and less willing to negotiate. Somehow, this bubble will burst. I fear it will happen in an unpleasant and rather loud manner.
Expected
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Evgeniy Stupin

It is clear that Trump is making many concessions. But his patience is not limitless. And, naturally, at some point, he will get tired of Putin leading him by the nose. He understands all of this perfectly. And I think the turnaround will be impressive. We will see, first of all, the reintroduction of sanctions, secondly, an increase in arms supplies to Ukraine, and much more.
Expected
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Alexander Nevzorov

Even if Trump's efforts produce some results, this is not the end of the war, it's not the curtain, it's an intermission, and a second act is inevitable. Talking about a potential truce between Ukraine and Russia.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump
ru → en

Andrey Illarionov

Will Trump change his position? No... We will see how he puts pressure on Turkey to open the straits as a gesture of goodwill. We will see this happen. The straits that Turkey closed at the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Expected
#Trump #Turkey #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

It is clear that the negotiations will lead nowhere. Putin will demand the five regions that Witkoff is already offering him. They will end. New approaches will be needed. Trump will most likely step away from this topic, losing interest in it. This is where China will step onto the stage with much stronger leverage.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #China #Trump
ru → en

Sergey Parkhomenko

It seems to me that we are in a situation where there is a very high risk that if Trump realizes that there is no immediate result and he is not achieving some sort of instant success, he will simply drop this matter, he will simply stop dealing with it. Speaking about organizing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

The only tool that could work in this situation is pressure on Putin. It's already clear after two months that Trump refuses to apply it. And he won’t. He will not apply it. It’s already possible to conclude that Trump does not want to put any pressure on Putin.
Expected
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Evgeny Chichvarkin

I think it will end with an agreement to have another conversation. I don't expect any major turning points. In response to the question: "Peskov stated that Putin does not intend to make any official statements after the conversation. We’ll be waiting for information from Trump... What do you think will be the outcome of today’s conversation?"
Completely came true
#Putin #Trump #Russia #USA #War in Ukraine #Ukraine
ru → en

Artemy Troitsky

I think that soon Trump will face the arctic fox (*pesets*). How exactly this will happen, I don’t know. But there are many possible scenarios, ranging from mass popular uprisings… all the way to a military coup.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

First of all, I expect that there will be an attempt to amend the U.S. Constitution to allow Trump to stay for another term.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Anatoly Nesmiyan

It is already clear that Trump will not sign anything with Zelensky (well, let’s leave a 1-2 percent chance for an extreme scenario—though an alien arrival seems like a slightly more likely scenario).
Expected
#Trump #Zelensky #USA #Ukraine #War in Ukraine
ru → en