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Predictions and promises monitor

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#Trump

Authors
108
Predictions
241
Verified
70
Came true
57%
Complex
47%
Confident
44%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Mikhail Svetov

When the Democrats published a dossier on the wiretapping that Nixon placed in his political opponent's headquarters, it led to Nixon's impeachment and a shake-up of the American political system. The publication of this dossier will most likely not lead to anything at all. Because that is Donald Trump's signature style. He is speaking about a U.S. National Intelligence report that there is evidence the Democratic Party deliberately created a hoax about Russia's interference in the 2016 U.S. election.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Ekaterina Kotrikadze

I think Trump will announce sanctions tomorrow, but they won't be the kind Lindsey Graham is proposing. I believe Graham's suggested sanctions – 500% tariffs against Russia's trade partners – are too extreme; I don't think that will happen. I don't believe Trump will go that far. I think the sanctions will be different, much less painful, but still a significant blow to Russia.
Expected
#USA #Russia #Trump #War in Ukraine #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Trump promised to announce a surprise for Russia on Monday, July 14th. Everyone's guessing what it could be. My opinion is that Trump will issue a soft ultimatum: If Russia doesn't make concessions, a harsh sanctions law will be passed: a 500% trade tariff for countries that trade with Russia and don't pay "tribute" to Ukraine. And a partial lifting of sanctions if Russia makes concessions. But of course, no one can accurately predict Trump. Not even he himself.
Expected
#USA #Russia #Trump #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Sanctions against Russia: a new bill by Senator Lindsey Graham, who has been receiving bribes from Zelensky for many years, on 500% tariffs against all who trade with Russia and do not pay Ukraine, will be introduced in Congress on July 9. Trump has effectively given his consent to it. The prediction is that it will be passed. But. The words "the president must" in it will be replaced with "the president may." And Trump will not impose such tariffs. But he will use them to intimidate both Russia and China and any other country he wants to scare.
Expected
#Russia #USA #War in Ukraine #Trump
ru → en

Yulia Latynina

And if Trump really does sell Ukraine weapons tomorrow funded by massive European money—and corners Putin in Istanbul—I think Putin’s mood will change too. It’s just that I doubt it will happen. I seriously doubt Trump would do it for Zelensky, who is a client of the “deep state”…
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Trump
ru → en

Daniel Sachkov

I’ve said from the very beginning that there will be a war with Iran. It doesn’t depend on which foot Trump got out of bed on, nor on anyone else. This is the mission he came to carry out. He will see it through—or he won’t be around… There will be a war with Iran. The U.S. war with Iran.
Expected
#Iran #USA #Trump
ru → en

Ian Matveev

I think Trump is trying to pressure the Iranian government into making some concessions, cutting a deal, but I don’t think he’ll succeed and will just back off. He’ll be his typical self—talking about how “we’ll hit you hard if you don’t agree”. Nobody will agree, and he won’t actually follow through; he’ll just walk away.
Expected
#Trump #USA #Iran
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

Right now, the main topic of discussion around the world is, of course, whether Donald Trump will enter the war between Israel and Iran or not. To put it briefly, my answer is that he most likely won't and will be too afraid.
Expected
#Iran #Israel #Trump #USA
ru → en

Yigal Levin

Indicators suggest that the Americans will likely get involved... It's important to understand that the Americans—especially their air forces—have tools and capabilities dozens of times greater than those of Israel. This, by the way, is a good point. If this is what Israel did to Iran, then what are the capabilities of the U.S.? I think they will get involved. In the end, Trump will probably try to claim the credit for himself, like “Look, I’m the victor”
Expected
#Iran #USA #Trump #Israel
ru → en

Mikhail Khazin

And here we can talk about the main loser in this whole story. The main loser is the President of the United States of America, Donald Trump, and here’s why. He actually traveled to the Middle East to negotiate with Arab regimes and did in fact reach agreements that they would give him a lot of money—not four trillion, of course, but somewhere between one and one and a half trillion he could have received. Now there are no illusions; it’s absolutely clear that he won’t get any money. Due to Israel’s strikes on Iran.
Expected
#Trump #USA #Middle East #Economy
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

All in all, I think Trump doesn’t have much time left, because he’s clearly declining — and fast. He’s not in his best shape right now.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Mark Feygin

All he can do, at some point — and we will see this — is say that Ukraine needs to agree to the terms proposed by Moscow. Not all of them, but it must agree to the four regions. This will come up in one form or another. If you want to stop the bloodshed, if you don’t want retaliatory strikes like what happened on June 1st, you have to go, you have to swallow your pride and give up those four regions. That’s roughly the kind of message we’ll hear. This is the last line Trump will cross, I think. Trump, in one form or another, will propose that Ukraine give up Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions in favor of Russia.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump
ru → en

Alex Parker Returns

Apparently, the Democrats will easily make a comeback in the 2026 congressional elections. Trump is practically burying himself.
Expected
#USA #Elections #Trump
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

No, absolutely not. Trump will lead it — he’ll come to the Senate and speak in support of this bill. In response to the question: "If the Senate moves to put Lindsey Graham’s bill to a vote and it passes, do you think Trump will veto it?"
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Yevgeny Kiselyov

My intuition tells me that Donald won't dare to resolve the Iran problem by military means. In response to the question: "You're watching Trump. Will he go for a military solution to the Iran issue, or will he back off?"
Expected
#Iran #Trump #USA
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

Netanyahu's domestic political situation is difficult. I think he will take a historic step — without waiting for or asking Trump's permission, he will launch a strike on Israel. He misspoke — from the context, it’s clear that he meant "on Iran," not "on Israel."
Expected
#Israel #Iran #Trump #USA
ru → en

Alexey Naumov

I predict that Donald Trump will hold off on imposing sanctions for now — Ukraine’s attack on the aircraft will give him a reason to claim that neither side wants peace. Sanctions against Russia
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA #Economy
ru → en

Stanislav Kucher

I think the bill that Lindsey Graham proposed to increase sanctions, including imposing 500% tariffs on companies trading with Russia, will pass. Trump will have to accept it.
Expected
#USA #Russia #Trump
ru → en

Vladimir Osechkin

I believe that within a matter of weeks, Trump will lose the last of his illusions that any kind of agreement is possible. I don’t think he will make a fool of himself in front of the entire world. I expect that in the coming weeks, he will shift to much more serious rhetoric, and we will see new sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation — not symbolic ones, but measures that will strike hard at Putin’s wartime mobilized economy.
Expected
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #Economy #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Mikhail Fishman

It seems to me that this scenario is not very likely. In response to the question: "The Wall Street Journal writes that Trump is considering imposing sanctions against Russia this week. How likely do you think this scenario is?"
Completely came true
#USA #Russia #Trump #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

I believe that in the fall we’ll see a very interesting situation when mass protests against Trump begin in the U.S. I'm not a forecaster in American politics, and I'm not a political scientist. This is my conclusion as an economist. By autumn, I think Americans will be exhausted.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

That this will last long — even this 90-day agreement — I don’t really believe it. Trump won’t hold out; he’ll lose it again, start changing things, and a more serious stage of the war will begin, in which it’s unclear who will win. China might come out on top. The lifting of tariffs against China won’t last 90 days, and the trade war will continue.
Expected
#USA #China #Trump #Economy
ru → en

Igor Eidman

The only thing I’m absolutely sure of is that nothing Trump promises will actually happen. In other words, look at it in reverse: if Trump says he’ll lower drug prices, that means drug prices won’t go down.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Tetiana Montian

Our side also realized that Trump just needs to be waited out, because today he says one thing, tomorrow another, and the day after something else... So they’re waiting too. I mean, how can you negotiate with someone who’s about to be taken down? It’s completely obvious. Trump will be taken down soon.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Ekaterina Kotrikadze

I believe that, of course, a meeting between them is inevitable — it will definitely happen... In response to the question: "What could anger Trump about Putin?"
Expected
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia
ru → en

Taras Berezovets

Let’s see what happens with the sanctions. The 17th EU sanctions package is ready. Will it be adopted? Europe is waiting for action from Trump. But Trump, for his part, is in no rush. I’ll venture a guess: Trump, as someone primarily focused on a meeting with Putin — he has said that he’s willing to postpone all other meetings for the sake of this one — doesn’t want to strain relations with the Kremlin. So I think Trump definitely won’t impose any sanctions now. Before the meeting with Putin.
Expected
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #Economy
ru → en

Sergei Markov

My forecast? No—my insight: the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will collapse now due to Ukraine’s ultimatums. But that will be the first move, a pass. After that, the second move: an announcement will be made about a meeting between Putin and Trump as soon as possible.
Did not come true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Trump #USA
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

I consider that a far-fetched scenario. I would see it as a serious mistake on Trump’s part if he tries to do it. In response to the question: "Do you think he will run for another term? Will he seek re-election?"
Expected
#Trump #USA #Elections
ru → en

Mikhail Fishman

It would be comfortable if Trump negotiated everything, lifted the sanctions, and personally said that Crimea belongs to Russia — but that’s unlikely to happen. In response to the question: "Does Putin feel comfortable in this situation? Is he in a panic? Or is it a mix?"
Expected
#Ukraine #Russia #Trump #Putin
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Putin and Trump have agreed on everything — specifically, that Russian gas headed to the West will come under American control. At Russia’s border, it will be taken over by the Americans, and a new consortium will be formed. The Americans will encircle Europe: liquefied gas from the West, and pipeline gas from the East. And gas will flow through Ukraine — but not Russian gas; it will be American gas passing through Ukraine. Orban will become one of the main distributors of this gas, together with the Austrian right-wing and Fico.
Expected
#Gas #Putin #Trump #Russia #USA #Europe #Ukraine
ru → en

Win/Win

Trump's tweet will most likely be about the conclusion of a trade deal with the PRC. In response to Trump's message: "My next TRUTH will be one of the most important and impactful I have ever issued. ENJOY!"
Did not come true
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Win/Win

The meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump is being prepared and will take place before the end of May. Depending on the circumstances… those will be the topics discussed. It’s definitely not going to be like the Vatican on chairs.
Did not come true
#Putin #Trump #Russia #USA
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

Strangely enough, good. If everything had been going well for him, I think he wouldn’t be so determined to establish peace in Ukraine. Because now, achieving peace in Ukraine, against the backdrop of all his defeats and failures, has become a major motivator for him. I think he won’t be able to back away from this topic, so to speak. He’ll have to push for that peace. In response to the question: “Donald Trump has marked 100 days in office. What are your impressions of the American president’s time in power?”
Expected
#Trump #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

Trump will also soon say, “We are at war,” and will impose a state of emergency. I’m not even joking. The White House is already discussing the issue of transitioning the U.S. to a state of emergency, which would allow Trump to lift all sorts of restrictions on his decisions and govern the country through presidential decrees.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

He will start arresting political opponents. He’ll begin with city mayors. If they’ve already started arresting judges for protecting migrants, they will likely go after local and regional authorities as well. They’ll start arresting mayors too, under the banner of fighting migration. Then, possibly, they’ll even reach opposition Democratic state governors. Mark my words, something will happen soon. They will begin arresting their political opponents — most likely under a pretext similar to how Putin introduced anti-democratic measures at the start of his rule. Trump will arrest his political opponents.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

For some reason, Trump is afraid of Putin. I think he won’t want to anger Putin with new sanctions... Imposing sanctions against Putin is not something Trump would do. He simply won’t.
Expected
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

Trump said: "I want to meet with Putin right away. The inauguration is now, and I want to meet with Putin immediately." And everyone was speculating whether he would meet with Putin or Zelensky first. I said they wouldn’t meet before summer. And now, my prediction just has one more month to hold.
Completely came true
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

So my prediction is that most likely America will not back out, will not withdraw from the process next week... And most likely, Trump will continue to maintain the role of mediator, even if his position shifts — he still won’t leave.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #USA #Trump #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Win/Win

On Monday, Trump will impose maximum sanctions against more than 200 senior Ukrainian officials, including Zelensky himself.
Did not come true
#Ukraine #Trump #USA #Economy
ru → en

Boris Pastukhov

And if Trump pulls out and the situation in Ukraine sharply deteriorates militarily — and he realizes that this deterioration is giving him the image of a weak president — then I assure you, he’ll come right back and start defending that image. If these negotiations fail, he’ll keep going in circles: pulled out, came back; pulled out, came back. “Pulls out” here refers to withdrawing from negotiations over the war in Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

Over all these years, despite the fact that Trump has managed to insult virtually every well-known political figure at least once — with or without reason — he has never said a single bad word about Putin. He hasn’t, and he won’t.
Expected
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

My prediction is very cautious: Trump won’t impose any significant sanctions to punish Moscow, even if it does come to that.
Expected
#Russia #Trump #Economy
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

Unfortunately, it must be stated that the war will continue despite the temporary truce introduced by Vladimir Putin. In honor of Easter, he announced a unilateral ceasefire. Since then, the temporary ceasefire has been violated. Putin has already stated that the ceasefire will not be extended. Unfortunately, Trump’s peace plan has failed.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

I think he will keep trying to stop this war for a long time — until he succeeds. In response to the question: "How long will Trump keep trying to stop the war? When might he say he's washing his hands of it, that he’s done everything he could, and from now on it’s up to others — America is no longer interested?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

Let’s get back to the Trump administration. What’s next? I think that’s it. Basically, next week or in a couple of weeks, they’ll officially take offense — like, “if you’re so ungrateful and forgot to thank us, then we’re not going to do anything.” The Trump administration will soon withdraw from efforts to resolve the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Did not come true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Trump
ru → en

Igor Eidman

Trump has a mess in his head. He doesn’t even know what he wants. He sets goals at the level of a child’s whims but has no idea how to achieve them. He just throws out some slogans like “Greenland is ours,” and then they frantically start thinking about how to make that whim come true. And it turns out, there’s no way to make it happen. And to understand that it’s unfeasible, they could’ve just asked ChatGPT — even it would have said that such things don’t happen in the modern world and that it’s simply not achievable. Trump will not take full control of Greenland or annex it to the U.S.
Expected
#USA #Trump #Greenland #Denmark
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

There’s a funny story — because of Trump’s tariffs, the U.S. trade balance won’t improve, but will actually worsen. That’s because of the global economic slowdown, falling oil prices, and the shutdown of oil production facilities in the U.S., which is an important part of American exports. They’ll be exporting less oil, which means their trade balance will get worse. In other words, Trump’s actions will lead to the exact opposite result.
Expected
#USA #Economy #Trump
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

The Iran issue ranks second. On Trump’s scale, I would give it a weight of 3 out of 10. We know that this issue will be resolved, and very quickly. The nuclear program will be stopped through negotiations.
Expected
#Iran #USA #Trump
ru → en

Abbas Gallyamov

I think Trump definitely won’t object to that... I can’t imagine Trump refusing to sell weapons. In response to the remark: "Ukraine is no longer asking for aid, but wants to buy weapons, and the Europeans are providing money for that."
Expected
#Ukraine #USA #Trump #Europe #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Tatyana Popova

Ukraine is no longer asking for aid, but wants to buy weapons, and the Europeans are providing money for that... It seems to me that, in the end, Trump will respond positively to the proposal.
Expected
#Ukraine #USA #Trump #Europe #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ramis Yunus

I can say this publicly—my opinion is that there definitely won’t be a full-scale war, nothing like "Desert Storm," nothing like what happened in Iraq with Saddam Hussein. That’s not going to happen. But a targeted strike on nuclear facilities... that would actually be good for him (Trump). A full-scale war in the Middle East involving the U.S. and Iran won’t happen, but targeted strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities are possible.
Expected
#Iran #USA #Middle East #Trump
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Over these 4 years, if Trump fails to achieve peaceful negotiations with Russia and Iran, then by the end of his term he might resort to war with Iran, for example.
Expected
#USA #Iran #Trump
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

I believe that unfortunately, Ukraine will be forced to accept the arrangement that will be agreed upon in negotiations mediated by Kirill Dmitriev and Steve Utkoff, and which will be finalized during a personal meeting between Presidents Putin and Trump. And Ukraine’s only trump card in this situation is military aid from Europe.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia #Putin #Trump
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Back in the summer of last year, I said that we would still see Trump in Tehran. And that’s most likely how it will be — just like we saw him meeting with Kim Jong Un.
Expected
#Trump #Iran #USA
ru → en

Tikhon Dzyadko

I'm hosting the morning broadcast tomorrow. I'm absolutely convinced that by the time of the morning show on Dozhd, there will be some comment from Trump about the strike on the city of Sumy. For some reason, I feel that, given his media activity and the number of meetings he has with journalists, someone will ask him about it — we'll see how he responds.
Completely came true
#Trump #USA #Ukraine #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Dmitry Gordon

I think it will die down. Trump's main goal is a tariff war with China and, more broadly, a struggle with China for global hegemony. In response to the question: "A question about the global tariff war. Do you think it will quiet down and fade away, or are we in for a second round?"
Expected
#Economy #USA #Trump
ru → en

Igor Aizenberg

He could be impeached for that. But I don’t think there will be enough Republican senators in the Senate to reach 67% of the votes for his removal. So he will remain president, and the next election will be in November 2028. Talking about Trump.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Igor Aizenberg

I don't think he would ever say out loud that he sees Russia as an adversary, or that Putin is a war criminal. That’s completely out of the question. Trump
Expected
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA
ru → en