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The ice is thin, but the Central Bank will lower the rate anyway—it seems they've decided there's no point in protecting Russians from inflation.
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

I think it will continue. My terrible prediction—God forbid it comes true, I wish death on no one. But unfortunately, there's reason to believe it will, because there's a huge process of capital outflow from Russia. Responding to the comment: 'People who knew too much are unexpectedly passing away. It's not just about the minister. There's Transneft, and even before that, in 2022, there was a whole series of such incidents' (Referring to a series of strange deaths among Russian officials and oil executives)
#Russia

It's clear that by the end of the year, the deficit will be 8 trillion. 6-7-8 – roughly that order. Referring to Russia's budget deficit.
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

The population of Russia will decrease by about half by the end of the century. I don’t think the situation in Ukraine and Belarus will be significantly better.
#Russia

Gazprom is exerting very strong pressure; it wants to be allowed—and apparently it will be allowed—to index gas tariffs twice a year. In Russia.
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

You're looking at such a long horizon for the interest rate, it's very difficult. The world is so turbulent that even a month is a long time. I think, most likely, they will keep the rate unchanged and say they will continue to monitor the trend of slowing inflation, but the Central Bank is ready to raise the rate if inflationary pressure in the Russian economy intensifies again. This is roughly the scenario I expect. In response to the question: "I understand it's still quite early to make predictions about the next Central Bank meeting, but if the decision is made based on behind-the-scenes situations, intrigues, internal power struggles, what forecast would you make for the next meeting on July 25? What will they do with the rate? Will they keep lowering it?"
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

I don't believe this will cause any long-term or persistently high change in oil prices — they’ll spike for a while and then start to dip again. Due to the ongoing war between Israel and Iran, oil prices have temporarily risen and will drop again later.
#Oil #Economy #Iran #Israel

What will happen to the Central Bank's key rate? I believe the Central Bank will lower it to 20.5-20.0%. Nabiullina needs to show that she is flexible. But the statement will say that the Central Bank does not rule out raising the rate again if the disinflation trend proves unstable.
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

I believe that in the fall we’ll see a very interesting situation when mass protests against Trump begin in the U.S. I'm not a forecaster in American politics, and I'm not a political scientist. This is my conclusion as an economist. By autumn, I think Americans will be exhausted.
#USA #Trump

I expect that America will completely pull out of this process. I mentioned this scenario even before Trump took office... He won’t impose any sanctions. In response to the question: "What do you expect regarding the sanctions?" (against Russia)
#USA #Russia #Economy

That this will last long — even this 90-day agreement — I don’t really believe it. Trump won’t hold out; he’ll lose it again, start changing things, and a more serious stage of the war will begin, in which it’s unclear who will win. China might come out on top. The lifting of tariffs against China won’t last 90 days, and the trade war will continue.
#USA #China #Trump #Economy

The oil price cap should have been revised a long time ago. Sixty is already a completely outdated figure for the current market. It should have been lowered. But imagining that the G20 will now come together and decide to lower it from 60 to 45 — that’s unrealistic. There are already too many disagreements, too many conflicts, so it’s no longer possible to make it happen. Referring to the oil price cap for Russia.
#Oil #Economy #Russia #Economy of Russia #G20

Trump will also soon say, “We are at war,” and will impose a state of emergency. I’m not even joking. The White House is already discussing the issue of transitioning the U.S. to a state of emergency, which would allow Trump to lift all sorts of restrictions on his decisions and govern the country through presidential decrees.
#USA #Trump

Right now, methods are being devised for how to formally take people’s deposits under government control without officially freezing them. They won’t take your money away, no. Instead, they’ll issue you a document stating that you own a large package of shares in newly privatized enterprises, and you are now a major portfolio holder of securities. This is the Cyprus model. There too, they didn’t take the money away; they simply forcibly converted it into bank shares. And you became a major shareholder in a bank that nobody needs, and the liquidity of your shares is practically zero. I think this is more likely. I think this is most likely the scheme I’m describing — the conversion of your deposits into something highly illiquid.
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

The dollar is no longer as good an investment option as it used to be. The euro is strengthening now. In the short term, it’s probably worth investing in euros. The euro will be worth more relative to the dollar.
#Dollar #Euro #Economy

First of all, we’re supposed to have a meeting already in April. But in April, to be honest, I don’t expect the rate to be lowered. The Central Bank of Russia will not lower the key interest rate in April.
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

These past few days I’ve had a disturbing feeling that we might actually be witnessing the decline of America. If all of this keeps going the way it is, the system will enter such turbulence that parts will start to fall off. Then some states will start saying they need to secede, because it’s unclear how to keep living within this overall system — they’ll feel the need to save themselves. By "all of this" is meant Trump's policy, which is unpredictable for the markets and finance.
#USA

And then there’s also transport, which is in crisis too. This year, about half of Russia’s transport companies will go bankrupt. And the cost of transportation, at the very least, will double.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

For now, everything is being done for Putin — in favor of Putin, in the name of Putin, to support Putin. But nothing will come of it, in my opinion. So this will eventually lead to a tightening of sanctions against Russia. On the relationship between Trump and Putin
#Trump #Putin #Russia

A lot of factors came together. On the one hand, people wanted to get rid of foreign currency; on the other, there was lower demand for it from importers; and on yet another, there was a desire to bet on the decline of the dollar. And this is the result we got. But I think we’ll see a reversal in April — most likely that’s what will happen. We’ll see. In April, the ruble is expected to weaken against the dollar.
#Ruble #Dollar #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

I stand by my prediction that the word of the year for 2025 will be "bankruptcy." We'll see. I’m not guaranteeing it, but I have that feeling. There will be a lot of bankruptcies in Russia this year.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

For some reason, I feel that at the next meeting, they will raise the rate by half a percentage point, bringing it to 21.5. They won’t dare to increase it too much because it would be both pointless and too provocative. So, in the near future, they will likely keep it at around 21 or 21.5.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

The situation is truly strange. Russia has given nothing, yet the Americans have offered it mountains of gold. I don’t think any of this will come to pass. Russia will do nothing, and the Americans will lift nothing from it.
#Russia #USA

Most likely, in March, we will see a reversal of the trend toward the ruble’s depreciation. Otherwise, there will be a huge problem with filling the Russian Federation’s budget.
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

The year 2025 is critical. If Russia does not cease active military operations this year, the total collapse of its economy will begin.
#Russia #War in Ukraine

I think that by the end of 2024, the number of billionaires in Russia will grow again—that’s my prediction.
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy

I think they will simply ask one of the bankers to sell, and the exchange rate will stabilize and go down. I don’t think it will stay at this 114 level just yet—it’s too early for that. I believe they’ll bring it down to around 107-105 and keep it there for some time. Rubles per dollar.
#Ruble #Dollar #Economy of Russia #Russia

The problem is that, apparently, it’s not only the price of oil that will decrease, but also practically all the commodities Russia sells. Therefore, Russia’s financial outlook is not good.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

I thought that the most likely development of the Russia-Ukraine conflict would be a shift toward a Korean scenario. But it seems the situation will more likely resemble the Israel-Palestine conflict, where there are periodic meetings, consultations, negotiations, and peace agreements, followed by Nobel Peace Prizes. After that, everyone starts killing each other again. And, as you understand, this has been going on for almost 80 years. Relying on any truces to fundamentally change the situation is no longer possible.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Creating scientific potential and establishing strong universities is an extremely costly endeavor. Because of this, the Global South will never dominate in technology. It will always be purchasing technology... The world is now divided into the Global North, which generates technology and reaps significant profits from it, and the Global South, which consumes this technology and pays for its use, as it cannot produce equivalents itself.

I don’t think that even after Putin’s physical death there will be any fundamental transformation of the regime in Russia. No, it won’t happen. Similar kinds of people will take over.
#Russia

Unproductive money is flowing into the economy and inflation is being stimulated. Since inflation is being stimulated, the Central Bank will keep interest rates high for a long time. With high rates, the economy is slowing down. We can say that we will likely enter stagflation in 2025, which means economic stagnation with high inflation. And stagflation is a terrible thing.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

What will happen next is hard to say. Most likely, there will be no increase in salaries. Prices will continue to rise. Prices will continue to rise because the Central Bank cannot do anything about inflation.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

War consumes everything. And it seems that in the coming year, Russia will completely deplete the National Wealth Fund. This is not just my opinion; it was written by the Central Bank... In the coming year, Russia will fully eat through the NWF. By the end of this year, there will be only about 3.5 trillion rubles left, at best. Most likely, in the coming year, Russia will completely lose the National Wealth Fund.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

I expect a soft, gradual devaluation of the ruble... but it is clear that it will not be possible to balance the budget next year without devaluation.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

The process of nationalization will begin... The share of the private sector will decrease, while the share of the public sector will increase. Gradually, the share of assets under direct government control will grow... This will be a gradual approach to the economy of North Korea... There will be more mechanisms for regulated distribution of food... It won't happen very quickly, but this is a clear trend on the horizon of 10-15 years.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

There will be wars... As I’ve already mentioned, since we’re not seeing any technological progress, it means we’re at the lower part of the so-called Kondratiev curve, the Kondratiev cycle. And in this phase, wars always increase. There’s no point in developing the economy, no economic gains, and frustrated nations start fighting each other out of anger and hopelessness. So we are in a period where, unfortunately, I have to tell you, the number of wars will only keep growing.

The situation with the real estate market is quite frightening. We are likely facing a drop in prices here.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

Events in the Middle East can certainly impact the market, and in the short term, they will likely have an effect, but probably not for very long and not in a very severe way. Israel's war against Hamas may affect oil prices, but only for a short period and not significantly.
#Oil #Economy #Israel-Hamas war

There were some strange hopes among people that China would develop production on the territory of Russia. I immediately said that this is complete nonsense. The Chinese will never build anything on Russian territory. They will sell their cars, but they will not build their own car factories... and there is no need to build anything in Russia. It's too much trouble.
#Russia #China #Economy #Economy of Russia

I have a hypothesis about how they will strengthen the ruble... I think a two-step plan will be played out: 1) The Central Bank will sharply raise its interest rate—by as much as two points (which will ultimately undermine construction and hopes for GDP growth); 2) The government will secretly force several large exporters to sell more currency (I believe a total of at least ten billion). As a result, the dollar will drop from 100 to 90, and the President will proudly praise the Central Bank for its successful work in strengthening the ruble, which will be reported across all channels. After that, the exchange rates of the dollar and euro will gradually start to rise again...
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy #Ruble #Dollar