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I'll take the risk of making this assumption: these negotiations will lead nowhere. In reality, Putin doesn't want peace at all. What he wants is Ukraine's capitulation.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

Since it has the nature of a behind-the-scenes financial and economic deal, Kirill Dmitriev is a key figure here. So, without a doubt, this deal will go through. Calling it “peace talks” doesn’t feel right. I believe it will be a situation that Trump will sell as his victory — and after that, the war will resume. In response to the question: “Do you think peace negotiations will reach their logical conclusion, or will everything continue indefinitely?”
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA

If we're talking about the military option—regaining any territories—then we're looking at a timeline of at least a notional 10 years, in my opinion. In response to the question: "Your most optimistic military forecast for Ukraine? Is there any chance of ever regaining any territories by military means?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

In a format similar to the summer of 2023, something more or less large-scale — no, it’s not possible. There are neither the forces nor the resources for that. Right now, those forces and resources are only sufficient to defend, hold positions, and carry out diversionary raids. A full-scale counteroffensive is definitely not possible within the next year. Answer to the question: "Is a new counteroffensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine possible?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I think there will be a war, and it will keep growing. Putin needs it badly, and so far, there's nothing that seems likely to stop him on this path.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Ukraine

In reality, Putin won’t last long. When this regime collapses, all those territories will return to Ukraine — there’s no doubt about that. And all those criminals who carried out these seizures — we will hunt them down around the world and bring them to justice. Justice will prevail. Sometimes, it doesn’t come immediately.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Putin #Russia

I don’t expect anything in the foreseeable future. Not until Russia moves to the next level of mobilization. I mean, unless it brings another half a million soldiers into service and increases the level of industrial mobilization, I don’t see any significant threats on any part of the front.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Putin has more soldiers, more people in the country. It’s absolutely clear that no Western countries will send their troops.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

It’s not very important to him — to Trump. And I predict that, indeed, after stopping the hot phase of the war, he will hand over the negotiation process to the Europeans. He doesn’t need it.
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Europe

No, there won’t be. There will be no ceasefire. I say this with deep sorrow. In response to the question: “Do you think there will be a full ceasefire by Easter?”
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

The war in Ukraine is coming to an end... Some kind of truce will be reached.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

One can be fairly certain about the upcoming negotiations: either it will once again be talks in Riyadh, or it will be a direct call between Putin and Trump — and they will finally come to some kind of agreement. Most likely, an energy agreement on non-strike commitments and a deal regarding the Black Sea will be signed. Because the Ukrainian side will agree to sign them.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia #Trump #Putin

An increase in military support for Ukraine — it’s already clear that this won’t happen. Trump won’t do it, even though such proposals have been discussed.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Trump

Trump has found himself in a dead end... Technically, he cannot force Ukraine into a deal that suits Putin, because Ukraine won’t agree to it — and neither will Europe.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Trump #Putin

Trump will continue to build relations with Putin one way or another. Trump will simply start pulling out of the war in Ukraine. And it will end pretty soon because of that. That’s my prediction. And I would be glad to be wrong. It seems to me that soon, America will no longer be part of this war.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Trump #Russia

To imagine that Ukraine would give up or withdraw from the territories of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia — that’s a strange assumption. Even if Trump joins the war alongside Putin, even that won’t lead to Ukraine agreeing to give them up.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Someday, the hot phase of the conflict will come to an end. The sides are currently engaged in a war of attrition. But I don’t really believe in the signing of any peace agreement right now — because the interests of the parties are diametrically opposed.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

That’s why I’m speaking very cautiously... If a truce isn’t reached by May 5th, then that’s it — it won’t be reached at all.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

It’s possible that France might want to send troops to Ukraine on its own. However, it’s unclear how they would be supplied there, and what would happen if the Russian army strikes French forces. In that case, Paris would find itself in a very difficult position — either start a war with Russia or quietly withdraw the troops and admit military defeat. Therefore, we’ll risk making a prediction — Macron won’t send anyone anywhere. All his statements are loud but empty political PR. Until the Americans authorize the deployment of European — and specifically French — troops to Ukraine, no Europeans will appear there.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #France #Europe #USA #Russia

Most likely, if the negotiations continue at this pace for just a bit longer, two events await us: a large-scale spring-summer Russian offensive on the front lines, and the simultaneous disappearance of America from the picture.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA

With Europe's support, Ukraine will endure. That I know for sure.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Europe

Europe will not agree to stop helping and supporting Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Europe

I would like Putin to repent... Once he is gone, the war will truly end within two weeks. I am absolutely sure of that. And it will most likely end exactly this way.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

My prediction. I would bet more on the fact that by the end of this year, the war will be halted. Let’s call it not an end, but a pause.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

There will be no ceasefire before the beginning of summer. Putin does not want this.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

Russian forces clearly will not be able to cross the Dnipro. This operation is too difficult for them.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

I am sure that no NATO troops will arrive on any territory of Ukraine until Russia is destroyed.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #NATO

My prediction: sooner or later, they will do it. The question is whether it's sooner or later. This is my prediction. It will happen. Europe will eventually decide to deploy troops to Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Europe #France #United Kingdom #Russia

This cannot go on for long. After a while, it will become obvious that peace is impossible. That Trump has only provoked Putin, making him more brazen and less willing to negotiate. Somehow, this bubble will burst. I fear it will happen in an unpleasant and rather loud manner.
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine

It is clear that Trump is making many concessions. But his patience is not limitless. And, naturally, at some point, he will get tired of Putin leading him by the nose. He understands all of this perfectly. And I think the turnaround will be impressive. We will see, first of all, the reintroduction of sanctions, secondly, an increase in arms supplies to Ukraine, and much more.
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine

Even if Trump's efforts produce some results, this is not the end of the war, it's not the curtain, it's an intermission, and a second act is inevitable. Talking about a potential truce between Ukraine and Russia.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump

I am quite sure that this will not happen. In response to his own question: "Do you believe there will be peace in the near future?" (Talking about the war in Ukraine)
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Will Trump change his position? No... We will see how he puts pressure on Turkey to open the straits as a gesture of goodwill. We will see this happen. The straits that Turkey closed at the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
#Trump #Turkey #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

No matter how many demands Putin makes, no matter how brazen and rude those demands are, Trump fulfills them one by one. And he will continue to fulfill them, allow me to make this prediction.
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #War in Ukraine #Ukraine

It is clear that the negotiations will lead nowhere. Putin will demand the five regions that Witkoff is already offering him. They will end. New approaches will be needed. Trump will most likely step away from this topic, losing interest in it. This is where China will step onto the stage with much stronger leverage.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #China #Trump

It seems to me that we are in a situation where there is a very high risk that if Trump realizes that there is no immediate result and he is not achieving some sort of instant success, he will simply drop this matter, he will simply stop dealing with it. Speaking about organizing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA

No European support package will replace the American aid package to Ukraine in the coming years, neither military nor financial. It is impossible. Europe does not have these resources, they simply do not exist. This is the reality of life.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Europe

I think, or at least it seems to me, that we will be fighting for another couple of years with such circumstances. Because what is being presented to us as the conditions we are supposed to agree to, I think, is unacceptable. Speaking about Russia.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

It seems to me that judging by the pace, the attack on Kupyansk and the fighting for it are more likely to happen in the summer of this year, maybe even in the fall, something like that. Things are moving pretty slowly there.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I think that by summer, as I mentioned before, the fighting will subside due to limited resources.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I think America will insist that Crimea be legally recognized as Russian territory. You'll see.
#Ukraine #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine

The only tool that could work in this situation is pressure on Putin. It's already clear after two months that Trump refuses to apply it. And he won’t. He will not apply it. It’s already possible to conclude that Trump does not want to put any pressure on Putin.
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine

I think it will end with an agreement to have another conversation. I don't expect any major turning points. In response to the question: "Peskov stated that Putin does not intend to make any official statements after the conversation. We’ll be waiting for information from Trump... What do you think will be the outcome of today’s conversation?"
#Putin #Trump #Russia #USA #War in Ukraine #Ukraine

It is clear that there will be no ceasefire. This will even be discussed until summer.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I’m more inclined to believe the second scenario—that Putin will come up with excuses and reasons not to agree. In the end, he will not go for a truce.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

There will be no "temporary truce" for 30 days, of course. Between Ukraine and Russia.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Zelensky will soon arrive at the White House for the signing of an agreement on rare earth metals and the transfer of Ukraine's infrastructure to a U.S. fund. He will not be the one signing it, but he will be present. And the funniest part? He will be wearing a business suit. The days of dirty, unwashed sweatshirts and cargo pants are over for the White House.
#Zelensky #Ukraine #USA #War in Ukraine

I think so. If we’re talking about a simple ceasefire without any conditions, then it can be agreed upon. In response to the question: "Will it be possible to achieve a ceasefire in the coming months?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

A cautious forecast—the Kursk region will be cleared of Ukrainian forces by the end of March.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I do not expect a large-scale attack toward Sumy. In response to the question: "Will Russia be able to advance toward Sumy if it pushes Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I don’t think Ukraine will give up all four regions, of course. In response to the question: "Will Ukraine agree to give up all four regions in exchange for peace and security guarantees?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

It is already clear that Trump will not sign anything with Zelensky (well, let’s leave a 1-2 percent chance for an extreme scenario—though an alien arrival seems like a slightly more likely scenario).
#Trump #Zelensky #USA #Ukraine #War in Ukraine

But the real issue of the conflict is the lack of security guarantees that Zelensky is demanding—guarantees that neither Trump, nor Vance, nor Biden, nor anyone else can provide. There will never be security guarantees… Security guarantees are impossible in this situation. They will not happen, not ever, under any circumstances.
#Ukraine #USA #War in Ukraine

Trump's mistake was underestimating Zelensky and broadcasting that conversation. The Europeans outplayed the Americans. The war will continue for a long time—at least until 2028. The war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA

No, it will not end—it may pause or simply come to a halt. The war cannot end as long as Putin is in the Kremlin. It will continue in one form or another. Even if it stops in Ukraine, then Georgia, Armenia, Moldova, and possibly Kazakhstan should prepare. In response to the question: "Do you think the war will end in 2025?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

He will not achieve peace with Moscow because he cannot make such a peace at Ukraine’s expense. He cannot. That is not what he promised, that is not what is expected of him, and he does not have the authority to do so. Trump.
#Trump #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia

Remember this tweet. It contains the rules and outlines of the new world. Everything stated below has already been decided and will be announced soon. A Ukraine Reconstruction Fund will be established, with the U.S., Russia, and China as its shareholders. The initial capital will consist of $40 billion from the U.S., $40 billion from Russia, and $20 billion from China. Later, this Fund will absorb $350 billion from Russia (frozen assets), while the U.S. considers that it has already contributed $350 billion (this is the exact figure Trump mentioned). But that’s not all. Over time, the U.S. will contribute another $350 billion, China—around $200 billion, along with additional contributions from the royal dynasties of the Persian Gulf. The total size of the Fund is expected to reach $1 trillion.
#Ukraine #USA #Russia #China #War in Ukraine

Therefore, I believe that out of a sense of self-preservation, Europe will ultimately continue to support Ukraine. It has no other choice.
#Ukraine #European Union #War in Ukraine

Despite the negotiations in Riyadh, it is obvious that any kind of peace or ceasefire is still far off.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

There is no hope that the negotiations scheduled in Saudi Arabia will lead to talks about a real solution to the military problem—that is, ending the war in the very heart of Europe.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Saudi Arabia

And most likely, indeed, if the war continues further, a second wave of mobilization will be inevitable. They are functionally fully prepared for it; the only thing left will be to somehow mitigate the political risks. In Russia.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

As for the possible end of the war, I have a very clear position on this issue—as an expert, as a political scientist, a scholar in the field of political science. I see no prerequisites whatsoever, absolutely none, in any format, that would indicate a trend toward ending the war. The war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

There are currently rumors about a ceasefire being introduced on Easter, April 20, which is in two months. I have almost no doubt that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will hold the Kursk front until then. This means that Putin will have to trade the Kursk region for something else.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

By summer, I believe Germany will step up and significantly increase its support for Ukraine, especially if the Americans do not resume their aid.
#Germany #Ukraine #War in Ukraine