The unilateral Christmas truce declared by Putin in 2023 ended in nothing and has been forgotten. The current one has a chance to last a bit longer and even become the first step toward something greater. However, that chance is minimized by the abruptness of the move, which turns it more into an argument in a debate with skeptics in Trump’s circle and a fast-acting remedy for disappointment.
If Ukraine responds positively to the proposal, it will make it somewhat less convenient for Moscow to break the truce. But even in this case, Russia still retains almost the same level of freedom to act. The lack of on-the-ground control offers plenty of opportunities to accuse the opponent of violating the truce and to proceed at its own discretion. Especially since, most likely, Moscow will make the continuation of the pause conditional on the immediate halt of arms deliveries and mobilization on the Ukrainian side.
Expected
#War in Ukraine
#Ukraine
#Russia