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As before, I still believe that the resources for continuing high-intensity combat operations are not unlimited for either side — neither for the aggressor, the Russian Federation, nor for the defending Ukraine. Therefore, I still maintain my opinion that in the first half of this year, a ceasefire agreement, under one scenario or another, will be reached.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Putin will inevitably open up military contracts for women at some point, because he doesn’t even have enough forces — not to conquer foreign territories, but just to contain Ukraine.
#Russia #Putin #War in Ukraine

And if Trump pulls out and the situation in Ukraine sharply deteriorates militarily — and he realizes that this deterioration is giving him the image of a weak president — then I assure you, he’ll come right back and start defending that image. If these negotiations fail, he’ll keep going in circles: pulled out, came back; pulled out, came back. “Pulls out” here refers to withdrawing from negotiations over the war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #Russia #USA

Putin will not agree to any conditions that would allow Ukraine to no longer fear a military invasion. He would rather give up certain settlements than agree to any security guarantees for Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

When it comes to Crimea, which clearly isn’t returning to Ukraine within the next decade.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

We’re looking at the Russian economy. And we’re confident that by fall or winter, due to objective economic reasons, we will pressure Russia into making serious concessions. No four regions, no official recognition of Crimea or other occupied territories. A ceasefire along the line of contact, an international monitoring contingent. No reduction of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, no reduction of missiles or aircraft, no adoption of laws favorable to Russia. Nothing. That’s what we will push them to — firmly and definitively — by fall or winter.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

The probability is about 80 to 20 that a ceasefire will happen. There will be some kind of deal by the end of the year — maybe even sooner. Based on how I feel, it’s bound to happen. In response to the question: "Will the war end this year?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

In February, I was in Munich and I clearly heard conversations within the American delegation and among European politicians that April 20 would definitely be the point when a truce would take place. Now it’s April 21, and it hasn’t happened. My prediction is that, in some form, we will still see something — if not a truce, then at least a freeze — before the end of the year. All sides are interested in it.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

That's the situation with the truce. As you can see, it’s over, and now the shelling has resumed. I don't expect any strong reaction from the U.S. The Kremlin will now say, “Look, Ukraine is not capable of making agreements, it violated the truce.” Most likely, there won’t even be much of a reaction from the American administration. And that’s how this Easter truce came to an end.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA

The war will continue until the bitter end, until one of the sides loses the ability to resist.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Putin has stirred up such a mess that it will take a very long time to pay for it... I still don’t believe at all that a peace treaty will be signed.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

No, I don’t believe it. Putin is very much interested in the war. The longer the war goes on, the fewer questions he’ll face from his own people. In response to the question: "Do you believe Putin would be willing to stop the war, to bring it to an end?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

I don’t think such a breakthrough is possible at this point... As of now, the collapse of the Ukrainian front doesn’t seem possible to me. In response to the question: "Is a breakthrough of the front by Russia possible?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

It’s kind of like the Korean scenario — that’s what awaits the war in Ukraine. Wherever the front line runs, that’s where it gets fixed, and that’s where a sort of border appears — not a state border, but a de facto one. Naturally, Ukraine won’t recognize those territories as Russian, even in the best-case scenario... But I strongly doubt that this will all end in 2025. To be honest, I really doubt it. In response to the question: "Is there a chance the fighting will end this year, and what is your opinion on the territorial issue?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

First of all, probably such a truce still won’t happen — 99%. In response to the question: "Is a 30-day extended truce possible?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Unfortunately, it must be stated that the war will continue despite the temporary truce introduced by Vladimir Putin. In honor of Easter, he announced a unilateral ceasefire. Since then, the temporary ceasefire has been violated. Putin has already stated that the ceasefire will not be extended. Unfortunately, Trump’s peace plan has failed.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump

I think he will keep trying to stop this war for a long time — until he succeeds. In response to the question: "How long will Trump keep trying to stop the war? When might he say he's washing his hands of it, that he’s done everything he could, and from now on it’s up to others — America is no longer interested?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA

In war, nothing is ever known in advance. Otherwise, the two sides wouldn’t be fighting. If nothing gets signed next week — and in my view, the chances of that are quite low.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

The unilateral Christmas truce declared by Putin in 2023 ended in nothing and has been forgotten. The current one has a chance to last a bit longer and even become the first step toward something greater. However, that chance is minimized by the abruptness of the move, which turns it more into an argument in a debate with skeptics in Trump’s circle and a fast-acting remedy for disappointment. If Ukraine responds positively to the proposal, it will make it somewhat less convenient for Moscow to break the truce. But even in this case, Russia still retains almost the same level of freedom to act. The lack of on-the-ground control offers plenty of opportunities to accuse the opponent of violating the truce and to proceed at its own discretion. Especially since, most likely, Moscow will make the continuation of the pause conditional on the immediate halt of arms deliveries and mobilization on the Ukrainian side.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Let’s get back to the Trump administration. What’s next? I think that’s it. Basically, next week or in a couple of weeks, they’ll officially take offense — like, “if you’re so ungrateful and forgot to thank us, then we’re not going to do anything.” The Trump administration will soon withdraw from efforts to resolve the war between Russia and Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Trump

Back on the 6th–7th, that truce was nothing more than a statement. No one even tried to pretend it existed. It’s hard to predict. But I’ll probably be right if I say that in this case it will be more or less the same — we’ll see all those insane attempts to continue the assaults, just as they’ve been carried out over the past couple of years, in columns on bicycles and other motorcycles. And none of it will fit into the framework of a truce. He’s saying that the Easter truce announced by Putin won’t be observed, just like the Christmas truce in 2023 wasn’t.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

They are unfeasible. There will be no peace. All serious politicians in Europe already understand that. In response to the question: "The U.S. proposed that Europe ease sanctions against Russia in the event of a peaceful settlement in Ukraine. The U.S. also believes that the territories Russia captured during the war should remain under Moscow’s control. These proposals have been voiced. Bloomberg reports on this. How feasible are they?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Russia needs to return to the global stage. But returning while sanctions are still in place is impossible. And no one will lift the sanctions without the de-occupation of the territories.
#Russia #Economy #War in Ukraine

My prediction is that there will be neither an Easter truce nor a cessation of hostilities in the foreseeable future.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Easter is just a week away, even just 6 days. It’s absolutely clear that there will be no truce by that time.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

As for Sloviansk and Kramatorsk — definitely not, in my opinion. In response to the question: "Can Russia occupy Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, or at least one of these cities this year?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I think Trump definitely won’t object to that... I can’t imagine Trump refusing to sell weapons. In response to the remark: "Ukraine is no longer asking for aid, but wants to buy weapons, and the Europeans are providing money for that."
#Ukraine #USA #Trump #Europe #War in Ukraine

Ukraine is no longer asking for aid, but wants to buy weapons, and the Europeans are providing money for that... It seems to me that, in the end, Trump will respond positively to the proposal.
#Ukraine #USA #Trump #Europe #War in Ukraine

Economic sanctions don’t work, because over 25 years Putin has caused so much damage to the Russian economy that any new economic measures would simply be a continuation of Putin’s own policies. That doesn’t stop the war. The only thing that can stop the war is his defeat on the battlefield.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

What we’re seeing now makes it absolutely clear that there will be no quick truce, no 30-day pause like some were expecting from this deal on Ukraine. And there’s one simple reason for that: the advantage Russia currently holds on the front lines — that’s undeniable, everyone knows it — is practically Putin’s only trump card in the negotiations.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

The fate of this war will not be decided at the negotiating table. And there is no chance of ending this war today until the Russian occupation army is destroyed, as long as Putin remains in the Kremlin. As long as Putin is in the Kremlin, the war will not stop.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

75 to 25. A 75% chance that the campaign will continue, the war will go on; and a 25% chance that Trump will achieve some sort of truce. In response to the question: "If nothing changes, what problems are we facing this summer?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I believe that unfortunately, Ukraine will be forced to accept the arrangement that will be agreed upon in negotiations mediated by Kirill Dmitriev and Steve Utkoff, and which will be finalized during a personal meeting between Presidents Putin and Trump. And Ukraine’s only trump card in this situation is military aid from Europe.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia #Putin #Trump

Many say that the Taurus missiles have a range of 500 km. But I am absolutely sure that even if Merz manages to get the Bundestag’s approval for supplying Taurus missiles to Ukraine, they will deliver a special limited version with a range of no more than 300 km, because there is an agreement between states that missiles with a range over 300 km cannot be supplied to anyone.
#War in Ukraine #Germany #Ukraine #Russia

Kharkiv, in general, is not threatened by ground combat operations in the coming years. Yes, it has been, is, and will remain under shelling. Missiles, Shaheds, and artillery shells will keep hitting there. But as for actual ground fighting — no, Kharkiv is not facing that in the near future.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I'm hosting the morning broadcast tomorrow. I'm absolutely convinced that by the time of the morning show on Dozhd, there will be some comment from Trump about the strike on the city of Sumy. For some reason, I feel that, given his media activity and the number of meetings he has with journalists, someone will ask him about it — we'll see how he responds.
#Trump #USA #Ukraine #War in Ukraine

We’re generally talking about this war as something prolonged over time. I honestly don’t see any prospects for the Russo-Ukrainian war to end in the foreseeable future.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I agree with you. In response to the remark: "I don’t know about you, but I’m sure the war won’t end this year."
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

For some reason, I don’t believe that Trump’s lost patience will necessarily turn into a flow of weapons suddenly pouring from across the ocean into Europe and then into Ukraine. And I also find it hard to believe that he’ll impose any “from-hell” sanctions against Putin. It seems to me that he’ll simply lose interest in this recently obsessive idea of his — to achieve a ceasefire on the Ukrainian front as quickly as possible. I think he’ll just throw up his hands and walk away.
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #Ukraine

We all understand perfectly well that no matter how much Donald Trump may wish it, if certain objectives are not achieved — and they won’t be — we can say this: until May 9th, there’s no point in even opening our mouths or thinking that any kind of ceasefire might happen.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Therefore, it's not appropriate to say that we are seriously considering the possibility of an offensive in the Sumy or Kharkiv direction today or in the near future. Speaking about a potential Russian offensive.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Unfortunately, the war will continue. It seems that now there will be a war. Not a special military operation, but a war in the true sense.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

The likelihood that this coalition will deploy its armed contingents to Ukrainian territory, in my view, is zero. Nevertheless, the leaders of European countries continue to actively discuss it.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Europe

As for arms purchases, I think Europe will probably help Ukraine buy weapons, because most likely Ukraine doesn’t have the funds to do it on its own.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Europe

If they suddenly decide to launch a second wave of mobilization, I believe it won't happen. In Russia.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

It’s obvious that the war won’t last another 14 years. The war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Ukraine will not lose the war in 2025. From a military standpoint, it will not be defeated.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

If peacekeepers are deployed, then a no-fly zone over Ukraine will definitely follow... They will at the very least protect the areas where the peacekeeping contingent is stationed. That’s for sure.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I don't think so. In response to the question: "Do you think there will be an Easter truce in Ukraine?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

If the war continues specifically with Ukraine, there won’t be a mobilization. But if there’s a clash with NATO or a group of NATO countries, then mobilization will definitely happen.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #NATO

Answer to the question: Will there be a mobilization? My answer is: most likely, yes — because the generals are persistent people, and for Putin, Ukraine is the main enemy, something that must be destroyed. And as for the people, the National Guard and the valiant security services will take care of them.
#Russia #War in Ukraine

Taking Zaporizhzhia or taking Dnipro won’t work for the Russians — I’m saying that in advance. Because capturing a major city is an extremely complex operation, fraught with massive losses.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Let’s imagine that Russian troops really do approach Zaporizhzhia and the battle for the city begins. Do you think the Armed Forces of Ukraine would leave those bridges across the Dnipro — I believe there are three of them — intact? In my view, the likelihood of that is zero.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Over the past month, there’s been a kind of offensive stirring of Russian troops. And overall, it’s clear they’re probably planning to move toward Zaporizhzhia. Will it work? Only God knows. I think it won’t work out.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I believe that Trump will get Putin to stop the war.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA

The most likely scenario as I see it today — the one that's taking shape... President Trump, I think, by May or June at the latest, will realize that Putin is not capable of making agreements, and he'll start stepping away from the issue. Ukraine will no longer interest him. He’ll blame everything on the Europeans: “These are your problems — deal with them yourselves.”
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA

I think yes. The war will end in its immediate form. In response to the question: "If Putin is removed, will the war end?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

There will be no end to the fighting in the foreseeable future.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Putin is interested in war. And for him, Ukraine is only the first stage. Europe knows this. That’s why Europe will continue to support Ukraine — it has no other choice.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Europe #Putin

Only Moscow matters. That’s why strikes must be directed solely at Moscow — and then this war will end, and it will end very quickly. There are no other ways to stop this war.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

Ukraine will not sign a capitulation under the terms proposed by Trump and Putin.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #Putin #USA

I think that by Easter, or maybe by May 9, there will be some kind of agreement on a ceasefire.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

In any case, they will not appear in Ukraine until a full agreement to freeze the war is signed. Only after that can a peacekeeping contingent be deployed on Ukrainian territory.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine

No, it won't. Answer to the question: "Do you think it's possible to expect that in the near future — say, by the 100th day of Trump's presidency or by May 9 — the war will come to a halt?"
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