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Predictions and promises monitor

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Igor Yakovenko

Journalist, public figure (Russia)

Predictions
83
Verified
29
Came true
62%
Complex
34%
Confident
34%
Rating
5.46
All Expected Expected soon New results

Igor Yakovenko

I am absolutely convinced that Königsberg will return to its historical homeland, or become an independent state. But this will only happen after Russia's military defeat.
Expected
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

Putin will fly the long, roundabout way, through the Black Sea, through the Mediterranean Sea, through friendly countries... I think he will fly. European politicians have no chance of somehow forcing Trump to back out, and no chance of forcing Orbán to arrest Putin.
Expected
#Putin #Hungary
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

There's a hateful reaction from pro-Kremlin figures, first and foremost for her leaving, for speaking very highly of Dudayev, and for speaking very highly of Gorbachev; for this, there is fierce hatred. Also, the statement that she will never set foot in Russia again. There have been proposals to list her as a foreign agent or an extremist. But I don't think that will happen. Speaking about Alla Pugacheva
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

To be fair, regarding Russia's much-vaunted 1,000 strikes per day—if they are achieved, and they most likely will be... Russia will be able to launch 1,000 drones at Ukraine simultaneously.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

The fate of this war will not be decided at the negotiating table. And there is no chance of ending this war today until the Russian occupation army is destroyed, as long as Putin remains in the Kremlin. As long as Putin is in the Kremlin, the war will not stop.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

If this expulsion of China from the classroom by teacher Trump leads to increased trade between the U.S. and Russia, then trade turnover between Russia and the U.S. should skyrocket. But I think you understand that this won’t happen. Right now, China sells — or used to sell before the introduction of those 125% tariffs — iPhones to the U.S. So what now? Is China supposed to sell iPhones to Russia, and Russia to the U.S.? That’s absurd. It’s not going to happen.
Expected
#Russia #China #USA #Economy
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

The Baltic states are undoubtedly a risk zone, but direct aggression will most likely occur only after one version or another of the war against Ukraine has played out. Whether Putin will be in a position to attack anyone after this war — or whether he’ll even still be around — is a rhetorical question, because I don’t have an answer to it. If Putin does attack the Baltic states, it will be after the war against Ukraine is over.
Expected
#Putin #Russia #Estonia #Latvia #Lithuania
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

The likelihood that this coalition will deploy its armed contingents to Ukrainian territory, in my view, is zero. Nevertheless, the leaders of European countries continue to actively discuss it.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Europe
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

I am 100% sure that the status of Crimea will not be recognized as Russian territory by either the United States or the UN.
Expected
#Ukraine #USA #Russia #UN
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

Elections in Germany are coming up, and most likely Merz will win, as he is undoubtedly much more decisive.
Completely came true
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

The most intense reaction was to the revocation of birthright citizenship. When Trump signed this order, reports in the press claim he called birthright citizenship "ridiculous." I believe the likelihood of this order being repealed is close to 100%.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

I think that the social credit systems being implemented in China—I am firmly convinced that they won’t take root here. In Russia.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

Trump will fail in his attempt to establish peace... The big question is whom Trump will blame for the breakdown of negotiations—Putin or Zelensky. And I strongly suspect that it will be more convenient and cost-effective for Trump to place the blame for the failed talks on Zelensky.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Zelensky #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

There will be no peace in the near future. At least, I’ll be very glad if I’m wrong. Speaking about a truce between Ukraine and Russia.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

I think there will most likely be a call or some kind of conversation, or perhaps even a meeting... between Trump and Putin before the inauguration.
Did not come true
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

So it’s most likely that this decision, if it is made—and I think it will be—will be made in February of next year. Talking about U.S. authorization for Ukraine to strike Russian territory with long-range missiles.
Almost came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

Lukashenko, a man who has been in power for 30 years... I am firmly convinced that he will outlast Putin. Because, in terms of maneuvering skills—being practically in Putin’s back pocket, 1000 percent dependent on him—he still manages to create room to maneuver for himself.
Expected
#Lukashenko #Belarus
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

I believe that, given Putin currently has four sources for replenishing cannon fodder, there’s no need for mobilization. I think it’s unlikely to happen. Never say never—of course, it could occur—but I don’t see it happening at the moment. For Putin, mobilization is a negative move; it creates tension.
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

It’s fairly obvious that, like Putin, Lukashenko will only leave his throne upon physical death. For both Putin and Lukashenko, losing power is essentially equivalent to physical death or a long prison sentence.
Expected
#Lukashenko #Belarus
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

I have never seen Yulia Navalnaya as a politician, and I don't think she has any chance of becoming one.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

All these dreams and fantasies about turning BRICS into a military-political alliance... I can try to be absolutely categorical. I believe this idea will never materialize. I just can't imagine a military-political alliance between, say, India and China; the contradictions between them are simply too strong.
Expected
#BRICS #India #China
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

Well, it’s definitely moving in that direction. China is undoubtedly trying to do it. But in the end, it won't succeed. In response to the question: "China wants to build a new bipolar world. Will the Chinese leader be able to achieve this?"
Expected
#China
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

After being elected, it's not customary for American presidents to take any significant actions that lead to specific consequences. So, the likelihood of any serious moves from Biden was already low, and now it’s almost approaching zero.
Completely came true
#Biden #USA #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

I think that in this case, wishful thinking is being mistaken for reality. The war will not end in 2025, even if something unlikely happens and all the points of the victory plan are fulfilled. Referring to the victory plan that Zelensky presented on October 16, 2024.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

It’s clear that Biden won’t be visiting Europe before the end of his term. At least, the likelihood of that happening is close to zero.
Did not come true
#Biden #USA #Europe
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

Most likely, this conflict will gradually subside... I think this situation will slowly die down. Referring to the recent situation where Kadyrov declared blood vengeance.
Expected
#Kadyrov #Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

For me personally, these details reinforce my confidence that Trump will not help Ukraine or will hinder assistance to Ukraine. If he becomes president.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Trump
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

Most likely, this will happen today, so I will cautiously say that this sensational news will occur. Today, Antony Blinken is arriving in Kyiv... The USA will allow Ukraine to use American long-range weapons to strike at Russia.
Did not come true
#War in Ukraine #USA #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

I highly doubt that anything threatens Gerasimov. I would be very surprised if he is punished. Due to the advance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the territory of the Kursk region of Russia.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

I don't think that Arestovych has a chance to return to Ukrainian politics.
Expected
#Ukraine
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

Most likely... they will return an urn with the ashes. Context: After Alexei Navalny's death, his body is not being released to relatives for a long time.
Did not come true
#Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

This is my prediction: he will not be allowed... My prediction is that it is most likely that Nadezhdin will be removed from the race. Boris Nadezhdin will not be allowed to participate in the presidential elections.
Completely came true
#Russia #2024 Russian presidential election #Elections
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

What will happen? There is an opinion that there will definitely be some turmoil in the Caucasus... I think that none of this will happen. In the event of Ramzan Kadyrov's death.
Expected
#Russia #Kadyrov
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

Putin will not release Navalny... there are two people that Putin will not let go. I understand that I could be wrong, but nonetheless, I have been following this for a long time. These are two personal enemies of Putin: Alexei Navalny and Vladimir Kara-Murza.
Partially came true
#Russia #Putin
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

Girkin is likely not very dangerous. Of course, no one will release him because he possesses unpleasant information. He is not the main one responsible for the destruction of the Malaysian Boeing.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

There is no chance that any of the Western leaders will say a word for Kara-Murza and that he will be freed - this is very unlikely... A swap is extremely unlikely. People like him are not exchanged. Neither Navalny, nor Kara-Murza, nor Yashin.
Did not come true
#Russia #USA #United Kingdom
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

He is unlikely to expect that due to his attacks, Putin will remove Beglov. This is out of the question... Beglov is quite satisfactory to Putin. And of course, under such pressure, Beglov will never be dismissed... Under no circumstances will Prigozhin's actions achieve success.
Completely came true
#Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

Plus, the governors, who undoubtedly, without a doubt, each dream of becoming the head of an independent state. There is not a single Russian governor who does not dream of becoming the head of an independent state. And as soon as the Putin regime starts to crack, they will try to realize their dream
Expected
#Russia #Putin
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

And he will continue the mobilization... and then in December, it’s absolutely clear that another round of mobilization will begin.
Did not come true
#Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

Russia will disappear as a serious player in the Middle East after some time.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

I don't think that Prigozhin, like Kadyrov, is capable of taking any serious political position in present-day Russia... It is impossible to imagine that they would become some kind of ministers or head a federal structure.
Cannot be verified
#Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

The likelihood that she will receive it is extremely low. I think that Ukraine will not receive nuclear weapons either, although it could create them itself. Poland and Ukraine will not receive nuclear weapons.
Expected
#Nuclear weapons #Ukraine #Poland
ru → en