Zelensky will be in Berlin tomorrow. He wouldn’t have gone if there weren’t a firm promise to provide Taurus missiles. His visit, in fact, signals that the agreement to supply such weapons is being put into action.
No one will ban Alternative, of course — that’s impossible.
In response to the question: “What do you think about the planned ban on Alternative — the German party?”
The government that will be formed by Merz is still to the left of the country’s overall trend, primarily because of the firewall built between the CDU/CSU and the AfD, which prevents them from forming a coalition. I don’t think there’s much good in that. I believe it will end with the AfD simply gaining even more votes in the next election.
Many say that the Taurus missiles have a range of 500 km. But I am absolutely sure that even if Merz manages to get the Bundestag’s approval for supplying Taurus missiles to Ukraine, they will deliver a special limited version with a range of no more than 300 km, because there is an agreement between states that missiles with a range over 300 km cannot be supplied to anyone.
Why did Hess fly from Germany to the UK in his own plane and spend the rest of his time there at a guarded estate before the war? I’ve never seen a definitive answer to that question — neither what message he delivered, nor why Hitler decided to send him. I believe the answers to these questions are still stored in archives that are unlikely to be declassified anytime in the next 100–200 years.
The CDU/CSU will most likely win the elections, but their result will be around 30%. The German political landscape is highly fragmented, with no party coming close to the 50% mark. A coalition will have to be formed. It is clear that the CDU/CSU is unlikely to take a step toward forming a coalition with Alternative for Germany.
Even if Trump completely turns his back on Ukraine, even if American aid is entirely cut off, Europe—at least France, the UK, Germany, the Scandinavian countries, and Poland—will not abandon their support for Ukraine.
I may be wrong, but it seems to me that Alternative for Germany, which everyone fears and which supposedly has around 20%, will face a complete disaster in this election. And I know why. Because about three days before the election, a dossier will be published revealing its dependence on the Kremlin.
I don't think that AfD will achieve victory in this term. Perhaps in the next term, they will perform more confidently.
By AfD, she means "Alternative für Deutschland" (AfD), as it is called in German.
Well, I think it will be the CDU.
In response to the question: "What are your predictions, who do you think will win?" (In the upcoming elections in Germany)
The new chancellor will definitely not be Scholz. It is most likely to be Friedrich Merz, his competitor from another mainstream party—the Christian Democratic Union.
The chancellor of Germany in 2025.
Scholz will still lose the parliamentary elections. The next chancellor will be Friedrich Merz. The winner of the elections will be the CDU—the Christian Democratic Union.
My intuition tells me that there is a very high likelihood that the same Scholz, widely known as the liverwurst, will remain in the position of Chancellor of Germany.
Scholz is done; there’s no Scholz anymore—he’s ruined everything. He won’t be in the next government. There will be early elections now. We will never hear his name again.
In the case of the German elections, everything is clear and straightforward at the moment. If there are no unforeseen events, the Christian Democrats will win, and they’ll win with a significant lead.
Pistorius will likely be the leader of the Social Democrats in this election. I don’t think it will be Scholz. After all, Pistorius is a more popular figure than Scholz.
I think more than three (thousand), probably. Although I also don't believe it will be a huge march.
In response to the question: "I wonder how many people will come out to the rally in Berlin?" (November 17, 2024, anti-war march in Berlin led by Ilya Yashin, Vladimir Kara-Murza, and Yulia Navalnaya)
My prediction is that I don’t feel it will be a major event — probably around a thousands people will show up at the rally, maybe three thousand at most.
In response to the question: "I wonder how many people will come out to the rally in Berlin?" (November 17, 2024, anti-war march in Berlin led by Ilya Yashin, Vladimir Kara-Murza, and Yulia Navalnaya)
Germany. The governing coalition has collapsed, and an acute government crisis has begun. If there are elections, the CDU leader Merz will become chancellor.
But everything points to the coalition collapsing, and elections will be held in Germany as early as March.
The current coalition in Germany will "fall apart," and early elections will take place in March.
The leaders of Ukraine (the illegitimate Zelensky and the semi-legitimate Yermak) are attempting to secure a meeting with Biden and Scholz during Biden's visit to Germany. Walter Steinmeier has already refused to meet with Zelensky, and Scholz reportedly told Yermak that he sees no point in such a meeting. However, the Ukrainian side is pushing through lobbyists and Democratic senators to pressure the White House. The chances of getting the meeting approved are minimal, and it is highly likely that Zelensky will miss out on the opportunity for this meeting.
As of today, it's known that the Ramstein meeting on the 19th won't take place... It will be limited to a meeting between Biden, Scholz, and Steinmeier. However, Zelensky might unexpectedly show up there. For some reason, I believe that on the 19th we will see a meeting between Biden and Zelensky. It will likely take place in Germany. Everything we were supposed to see at Ramstein, we will probably see there instead.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who is most likely to be the Social Democratic Party's candidate for chancellor in the upcoming elections, replacing Olaf Scholz.
I do not share the sentiment that the far-right has won. Overall, the AfD does not have such percentages in Germany, and in western Germany, they are closer to zero. They will not win at the national level.
The Alternative for Germany will not win the national elections in 2025.
Germany. Could the Alternative for Germany come to power? No. The authorities in Germany are preparing to ban the AfD. A dossier is currently being compiled. Reasons for the ban are being fabricated. They will start with banning some regional branches of the AfD. Then, under the threat of a complete ban, they will demand changes to the AfD's policies and put the political leadership of the AfD under control. That is the plan.
Most likely, at the end of the road, Germany will give in and will not be able to resist the overall trend of its allies.
It will transfer or allow the transfer of Leopard tanks to Ukraine
The northern branch is still operating, through Belarus, Poland, and Germany... it will eventually die out sooner or later by the end of the year.
About the northern branch of the Druzhba oil pipeline.
I'm not sure about Germany and France... There will undoubtedly be a tough stance from England and an extremely tough stance from the U.S.... there will be arms supplies and the harshest sanctions will be imposed.
If Putin invades Ukraine.
