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Predictions and promises monitor

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#Germany

Authors
35
Predictions
44
Verified
32
Came true
84%
Complex
63%
Confident
31%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Alex Yusupov

I’d even bet money that we won’t see any procedure to ban the Alternative for Germany.
Expected
#Germany
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Zelensky will be in Berlin tomorrow. He wouldn’t have gone if there weren’t a firm promise to provide Taurus missiles. His visit, in fact, signals that the agreement to supply such weapons is being put into action.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Germany #Zelensky
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

No one will ban Alternative, of course — that’s impossible. In response to the question: “What do you think about the planned ban on Alternative — the German party?”
Expected
#Germany
ru → en

Alfred Koch

The government that will be formed by Merz is still to the left of the country’s overall trend, primarily because of the firewall built between the CDU/CSU and the AfD, which prevents them from forming a coalition. I don’t think there’s much good in that. I believe it will end with the AfD simply gaining even more votes in the next election.
Expected
#Germany
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Many say that the Taurus missiles have a range of 500 km. But I am absolutely sure that even if Merz manages to get the Bundestag’s approval for supplying Taurus missiles to Ukraine, they will deliver a special limited version with a range of no more than 300 km, because there is an agreement between states that missiles with a range over 300 km cannot be supplied to anyone.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Germany #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Pastukhov

Why did Hess fly from Germany to the UK in his own plane and spend the rest of his time there at a guarded estate before the war? I’ve never seen a definitive answer to that question — neither what message he delivered, nor why Hitler decided to send him. I believe the answers to these questions are still stored in archives that are unlikely to be declassified anytime in the next 100–200 years.
Expected
#Germany #United Kingdom
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

In any case, Alternative for Germany, according to my forecast, will gain a maximum of 22%. That’s how it seems to me, though I could be wrong.
Completely came true
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Igor Eidman

By summer, I believe Germany will step up and significantly increase its support for Ukraine, especially if the Americans do not resume their aid.
Expected
#Germany #Ukraine #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Sergey Tsiplyaev

The CDU/CSU will most likely win the elections, but their result will be around 30%. The German political landscape is highly fragmented, with no party coming close to the 50% mark. A coalition will have to be formed. It is clear that the CDU/CSU is unlikely to take a step toward forming a coalition with Alternative for Germany.
Completely came true
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Dmitry Bykov

I may be wrong, but it seems to me that Alternative for Germany, which everyone fears and which supposedly has around 20%, will face a complete disaster in this election. And I know why. Because about three days before the election, a dossier will be published revealing its dependence on the Kremlin.
Did not come true
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Tatyana Felgenhauer

I don't think that AfD will achieve victory in this term. Perhaps in the next term, they will perform more confidently. By AfD, she means "Alternative für Deutschland" (AfD), as it is called in German.
Completely came true
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

Elections in Germany are coming up, and most likely Merz will win, as he is undoubtedly much more decisive.
Completely came true
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Dmitry Gordon

Merz is likely to win, we understand that. What will it change? A decisive leader, Merz, will replace the indecisive bureaucrat Scholz.
Completely came true
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Vitaly Dymarsky

Well, I think it will be the CDU. In response to the question: "What are your predictions, who do you think will win?" (In the upcoming elections in Germany)
Completely came true
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Igor Eidman

The new chancellor will definitely not be Scholz. It is most likely to be Friedrich Merz, his competitor from another mainstream party—the Christian Democratic Union. The chancellor of Germany in 2025.
Completely came true
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Yevgeny Kiselyov

Scholz will still lose the parliamentary elections. The next chancellor will be Friedrich Merz. The winner of the elections will be the CDU—the Christian Democratic Union.
Completely came true
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Darya Mitina

My intuition tells me that there is a very high likelihood that the same Scholz, widely known as the liverwurst, will remain in the position of Chancellor of Germany.
Did not come true
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Michael Nacke

Scholz is done; there’s no Scholz anymore—he’s ruined everything. He won’t be in the next government. There will be early elections now. We will never hear his name again.
Completely came true
#Germany
ru → en

Ramis Yunus

And today in Germany, Chancellor Scholz is no longer really the chancellor. In 2-3 months, he’ll be gone. A lame duck.
Completely came true
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Alexander Friedman

In the case of the German elections, everything is clear and straightforward at the moment. If there are no unforeseen events, the Christian Democrats will win, and they’ll win with a significant lead.
Completely came true
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Alfred Koch

Pistorius will likely be the leader of the Social Democrats in this election. I don’t think it will be Scholz. After all, Pistorius is a more popular figure than Scholz.
Did not come true
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

I think more than three (thousand), probably. Although I also don't believe it will be a huge march. In response to the question: "I wonder how many people will come out to the rally in Berlin?" (November 17, 2024, anti-war march in Berlin led by Ilya Yashin, Vladimir Kara-Murza, and Yulia Navalnaya)
Almost came true
#Germany #Russia
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

My prediction is that I don’t feel it will be a major event — probably around a thousands people will show up at the rally, maybe three thousand at most. In response to the question: "I wonder how many people will come out to the rally in Berlin?" (November 17, 2024, anti-war march in Berlin led by Ilya Yashin, Vladimir Kara-Murza, and Yulia Navalnaya)
Completely came true
#Germany #Russia
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Germany. The governing coalition has collapsed, and an acute government crisis has begun. If there are elections, the CDU leader Merz will become chancellor.
Completely came true
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Nikita Vasilenko

But everything points to the coalition collapsing, and elections will be held in Germany as early as March. The current coalition in Germany will "fall apart," and early elections will take place in March.
Completely came true
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Vision of the future

The leaders of Ukraine (the illegitimate Zelensky and the semi-legitimate Yermak) are attempting to secure a meeting with Biden and Scholz during Biden's visit to Germany. Walter Steinmeier has already refused to meet with Zelensky, and Scholz reportedly told Yermak that he sees no point in such a meeting. However, the Ukrainian side is pushing through lobbyists and Democratic senators to pressure the White House. The chances of getting the meeting approved are minimal, and it is highly likely that Zelensky will miss out on the opportunity for this meeting.
Completely came true
#Zelensky #Biden #Ukraine #USA #Germany
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

As of today, it's known that the Ramstein meeting on the 19th won't take place... It will be limited to a meeting between Biden, Scholz, and Steinmeier. However, Zelensky might unexpectedly show up there. For some reason, I believe that on the 19th we will see a meeting between Biden and Zelensky. It will likely take place in Germany. Everything we were supposed to see at Ramstein, we will probably see there instead.
Did not come true
#Zelensky #Biden #Germany #Ukraine #USA #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Leonid Shvets

The CDU is likely to return to power in Germany within a year. CDU = Christian Democratic Union
Completely came true
#Germany
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who is most likely to be the Social Democratic Party's candidate for chancellor in the upcoming elections, replacing Olaf Scholz.
Did not come true
#Germany
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

I do not share the sentiment that the far-right has won. Overall, the AfD does not have such percentages in Germany, and in western Germany, they are closer to zero. They will not win at the national level. The Alternative for Germany will not win the national elections in 2025.
Completely came true
#Germany
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Germany. Could the Alternative for Germany come to power? No. The authorities in Germany are preparing to ban the AfD. A dossier is currently being compiled. Reasons for the ban are being fabricated. They will start with banning some regional branches of the AfD. Then, under the threat of a complete ban, they will demand changes to the AfD's policies and put the political leadership of the AfD under control. That is the plan.
Expected
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

Most likely, at the end of the road, Germany will give in and will not be able to resist the overall trend of its allies. It will transfer or allow the transfer of Leopard tanks to Ukraine
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Germany #Ukraine
ru → en

Ramis Yunus

Germany won't go anywhere and will grant permission. Germany will grant permission for the transfer of weapons (presumably Leopards) to Ukraine.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Germany
ru → en

Mikhail Krutikhin

The northern branch is still operating, through Belarus, Poland, and Germany... it will eventually die out sooner or later by the end of the year. About the northern branch of the Druzhba oil pipeline.
Almost came true
#Russia #Belarus #Germany #Poland #Oil #Economy
ru → en