Predictions and promises monitor

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Oleg Kashin

Journalist (Russia)

Predictions
23
Verified
11
Came true
73%
Complex
55%
Confident
18%
6.16

Oleg Kashin

Quite soon, nothing will prevent the Israeli authorities from announcing that the objectives of the special military operation have been achieved and that Iran no longer has either a nuclear program or the people who planned to implement it, because the maximum program — some new government in Iran loyal to Israel — is clearly unattainable.
Expected
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

Years go by, and, hypothetically speaking, whose statue would stand in a Moscow square? I don't believe it would be Putin's.
Expected
#Putin #Russia
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

These emotional ups and downs, accompanied since February by the looming specter of a backroom deal... People have long been saying that Donald Trump himself might back out — both he and Vance have hinted at it. Honestly, I still don’t believe that the United States is even capable of pulling out of this process. Deep down, I continue to hold on to the hope that one day Trump will snap and push Putin to the breaking point. The U.S. will not exit the process of resolving the war in Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #USA #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

Tomorrow everyone is nervous, waiting for something — am I waiting? Who the hell knows, but I have the feeling that the real red lines are not to kill Comrade Xi or even to scare Comrade Xi. These lines are clear to the Ukrainian side, so I assume nothing will happen tomorrow, and the parade, if you watch it, will go smoothly without a hitch. Meaning that Ukraine will not attack the parade on Red Square in Moscow on May 9.
Completely came true
#Russia #War in Ukraine #Ukraine
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

It will definitely happen, it will definitely happen! In response to the question: "We need your prediction — will there be a war between India and Pakistan?"
Expected
#India #Pakistan
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

I think more than three (thousand), probably. Although I also don't believe it will be a huge march. In response to the question: "I wonder how many people will come out to the rally in Berlin?" (November 17, 2024, anti-war march in Berlin led by Ilya Yashin, Vladimir Kara-Murza, and Yulia Navalnaya)
Almost came true
#Germany #Russia
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

Putinism, having survived this war, will become stronger, tougher, and more aggressive toward its citizens. After the war in Ukraine ends, the Putin regime will grow stronger.
Expected
#Russia #Putin #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

But to imagine that the Russian Federation, after parting ways with Putin, would continue his course, uphold his values, and remain loyal to him—it’s impossible. In fact, the term "forever" is perhaps the least fitting description for the current Russian statehood.
Expected
#Russia #Putin
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

I’ll whisper a guess that Ilya Yashin will either ignore your call or decline. Context: On October 11, 2024, Mikhail Svetov invited Ilya Yashin to a debate on "collective responsibility of Russians."
Completely came true
#Russia
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

Now we learn that literally everyone in the Ministry of Defense is a thief. And it's remarkable that everyone, from the director of the Patriot Park, the favorite project of Sergey Shoigu, to his key deputies, turns out to be thieves and corrupt officials. The question arises: when will he be imprisoned? I have an answer to this question, which may not be very original. I suspect that he will never be imprisoned.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

Democratic Party leaders in the United States will never dare to seriously confront Russia, neither on the battlefield nor in the realm of sanctions.
Expected
#USA #Russia
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

And the same goes for our future civil war, which I regularly announce. Yes, there will definitely be a civil war. In Russia.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

Kazakhstan is outside the sanctions, Kazakhstan is a fashionable country. It's easy to imagine that McDonald's... is coming back... I think they will return, everything will be fine.
Expected
#Kazakhstan
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

Well, what will Bout be? A deputy from the LDPR at best.
Completely came true
#Russia
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

As far as I understand, they will ultimately leave Latvia now. TV Rain
Completely came true
#Latvia #Russia
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

...a story about an offensive in which it is impossible to believe in its success. The potential counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Crimea, which was supposed to take place in 2022-2023.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

Even in November, it will not be held. Referendums on the annexation to Russia of several occupied regions of Ukraine: Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Did not come true
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

It is clear that the Russian authorities and their proxy satellites probably won't have the heart to actually hang these people. Probably it will be an exchange. About the British prisoners.
Completely came true
#Russia #War in Ukraine #United Kingdom
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

Although if they do exchange him, it will be for those Britons. Regarding Medvedchuk, if he is exchanged, it will be for the captured Britons.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

I plan to remain in my previous role as a person who still does not believe that a war, in the form of the movement of the Russian armed forces to the contact line and beyond, is possible and will occur.
Did not come true
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en