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Predictions and promises monitor

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Ruslan Leviev

Founder of Conflict Intelligence Team (Russia)

Predictions
63
Verified
38
Came true
92%
Complex
55%
Confident
37%
Rating
7.64
All Expected Expected soon New results

Ruslan Leviev

For now, these prospects are still elusive; they are more likely to be relevant in the post-war period. Not during a time when the war is frozen, but when it is fully over and all territorial disputes are resolved. Until that point, Ukraine's entry into NATO is clearly not going to happen.
Expected
#Ukraine #NATO
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

It’s clear that the Sarmat missile won’t be used in the current war in any way. It’s more about boosting the prestige of the Russian army, specifically Putin. Putin used to love threatening with these Sarmats, showing cartoons of them hitting Florida with their missiles. And now we’re seeing these technical problems, with the missiles blowing up again and again.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Putin
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Actually, it has been destroyed... This warehouse will definitely not be suitable for its intended use in the next year or two. About the recently destroyed ammunition warehouse in the Tver region.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Where will Russia reach by 2025?... To Sloviansk, I am sure, it definitely will not reach... I am making such cautious subjective predictions.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Where will Russia reach by 2025? Uglidar will clearly not be held... I am making such cautious subjective predictions. Ukraine will not be able to retain Uglidar.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I am confident that in order for Ukraine to fully join the European Union, it will have to ratify the Rome Statute without any reservations. As long as this reservation remains, Ukraine will not find itself in the European Union.
Expected
#Ukraine #European Union
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

No, it will not... We are talking about lifting restrictions on the use of Western weapons. Let's assume all restrictions have been lifted and the necessary number of ATACMS have been supplied. They will start striking airfields, ammunition depots, logistics, and railway bridges. This will have an effect, but it will not be a turning point. Answer to the question: "If the Armed Forces of Ukraine strike deep into Russia, will this be a turning point in the war?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I doubt that such a decision will be made in the near future. Only if the practice of Russian drones or missile incursions becomes more frequent, and random civilians are killed on European territory. The answer to the question: "Will the countries bordering Ukraine shoot down Russian missiles?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Attacks on Lgov, the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant... on Kurchatov... in my opinion, this is complete nonsense. Clearly, this will not happen. The Armed Forces of Ukraine will not go to Lgov, Kurchatov, and the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

It’s clear to me that, even though the issue with the aid legislation in America and Europe has been resolved, at some point Chasiv Yar will be captured. When that will happen is hard to predict. By Russian forces.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I wouldn't expect that. Answer to the question: 'Are we threatened by a world war in the next two years? 2024-2025'
Expected
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I do not expect that in the next month and a half, suddenly, the Russian side will stop the attacks due to the fact that the losses are too high. Attacks on Avdiivka.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Apparently, the Taurus missiles that can fly 500 km, if we see them at all, will not be anytime soon. These missiles are unlikely to be delivered to Ukraine anytime soon, if they are delivered at all.
Expected
#War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Russia can bomb all the way to Lviv, which it periodically does. However, Ukraine is restricted, as if to say, "You can't go there." I believe we should come to a situation, and I think we will eventually, when this restriction will be lifted. Restriction on Ukraine's strikes on Russian territory using foreign weapons.
Expected
#War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Considering all these remarks, I do not expect any other large-scale deliveries this year... the task of reaching Melitopol this year is unachievable, given all the difficulties. For the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I find this absolutely impossible... What would be the point of entering the Kursk and Belgorod regions to occupy something there? If a mechanized offensive were to begin on Russian territory, the question of further support from Europe arises... Europe and America do not want to see ground combat on Russian territory. Response to the remark: "The Ukrainian counteroffensive may include entering the Kursk, Belgorod, and Bryansk regions"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Most likely, this will remain a mystery for many years and decades. Who blew up the Nord Streams.
Expected
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

We do not expect that Ukrainian drones will ever start attacking targets in Moscow... clearly, they will not be able to kill anyone from the high-ranking leadership of Russia.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Bakhmut itself is a large area. It won't be easy to capture it quickly. Therefore, I think we will be talking about Bakhmut for a long time, likely in the coming weeks
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Of course. Undoubtedly. I am sure that such attacks will happen again. They may use different types of drones or missiles... In this regard, Russia is vulnerable, and it is possible to strike military facilities. Answer to the question: 'Can we expect to see such attacks in the near future?' (Drone attacks on military facilities in Russia, similar to the attack on the Engels airfield)
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I haven't seen any objective factors supporting this version... it sounds quite doubtful. That Russia will leave the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in the near future.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

As soon as the Putin regime truly collapses... I think there will be a domino effect, yes, at the very least, Lukashenko's regime will completely fall.
Expected
#Russia #Putin #Lukashenko #Belarus
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I don't think they will now force the Dnieper to the left bank. Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Completely came true
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I am absolutely sure that there will definitely be a second wave, maybe not in January, maybe later. The second wave of mobilization in Russia.
Did not come true
#War in Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

It is unlikely that it will be possible to cut off electricity entirely in Ukraine, that is, to arrange a blackout.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I think... they will clearly provide new air defense systems... but this will not allow for 100% coverage of the sky. Allies will provide air defense to Ukraine after the massive shelling of Ukraine on October 10.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I also don't think that Shoigu will be punished in any way for the failure with the Crimean Bridge
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

It is likely that martial law will be introduced because of this... it can be declared in certain regions.
Completely came true
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

And most likely, the shelling of Kharkiv will certainly not stop. About the shelling from Russia after the liberation of the main part of Kharkiv Oblast by Ukrainian forces
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

We believe that at this point, Ukrainian forces will not advance further; they will not move into the Luhansk region. Further than the Oskol River.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

One should not expect that Kherson will be liberated within a week or two or three. Most likely, it will be a lengthy process
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Apparently, they will end up not completing anything and will have to use some kind of ferry crossing. About the restoration of the Antonivskyi Bridge over the Dnipro by the Russian occupation forces.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

The capture of the entire Black Sea coast, meaning the capture of Odesa as well, is absolutely excluded. Russia will not be able to capture the Black Sea coast.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

We believe that nothing will come of it. Commenting on the proposal by the Estonian Foreign Minister to ban the issuance of Schengen visas to Russians at the EU level
Completely came true
#European Union #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

If those HIMARS that were promised actually start to be provided, then I think that in a month we will see a serious change in the situation.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Today, Putin announced that we are canceling the assault on Azovstal. But naturally, the gunfire will not stop in any way. We are absolutely certain of this... bombs will continue to be dropped on Azovstal... there will be shelling from a distance.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

It is clear that nothing like that will happen. Talking about the Easter truce.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Russia will be able to fight for a month and a half to two months; it will not withstand heavy fighting for longer... then partial mobilization will be required.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Ukraine is currently in talks to purchase the MQ-9 Ripper drone. However, it is highly unlikely that such drones will be sold to them.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

It can be assumed that if the Antonivskyi Bridge is blown up and a threat is created to Nova Kakhovka, then perhaps the Russian forces will decide to withdraw from Kherson. But so far, we do not see any prerequisites for this. They will try to hold their position in Kherson.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

But for now, there is no such danger. We do not see signs that mobilization is being prepared. Within a month. In Russia.
Completely came true
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en