screenshot

In any case, they will not appear in Ukraine until a full agreement to freeze the war is signed. Only after that can a peacekeeping contingent be deployed on Ukrainian territory.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine

What is meant by defeat? It’s Russia achieving its political goal, namely installing a puppet government in Kyiv... This is no longer achievable—neither with weapons nor with soldiers.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

For now, these prospects are still elusive; they are more likely to be relevant in the post-war period. Not during a time when the war is frozen, but when it is fully over and all territorial disputes are resolved. Until that point, Ukraine's entry into NATO is clearly not going to happen.
#Ukraine #NATO

It’s clear that the Sarmat missile won’t be used in the current war in any way. It’s more about boosting the prestige of the Russian army, specifically Putin. Putin used to love threatening with these Sarmats, showing cartoons of them hitting Florida with their missiles. And now we’re seeing these technical problems, with the missiles blowing up again and again.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Putin

It’s clear to me that, even though the issue with the aid legislation in America and Europe has been resolved, at some point Chasiv Yar will be captured. When that will happen is hard to predict. By Russian forces.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I am confident that in order for Ukraine to fully join the European Union, it will have to ratify the Rome Statute without any reservations. As long as this reservation remains, Ukraine will not find itself in the European Union.
#Ukraine #European Union

No, it will not... We are talking about lifting restrictions on the use of Western weapons. Let's assume all restrictions have been lifted and the necessary number of ATACMS have been supplied. They will start striking airfields, ammunition depots, logistics, and railway bridges. This will have an effect, but it will not be a turning point. Answer to the question: "If the Armed Forces of Ukraine strike deep into Russia, will this be a turning point in the war?"
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

We do not expect that Ukrainian drones will ever start attacking targets in Moscow... clearly, they will not be able to kill anyone from the high-ranking leadership of Russia.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

We believe that they will most likely not provide anything. Israel will not give weapons to Ukraine.
#Ukraine #Israel #War in Ukraine

We are currently stating in our reports that we are increasingly confident that even the Donetsk region will not be taken at any time.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

In this war, we do not see tank battles... Most likely, we will not see them
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

As soon as the Putin regime truly collapses... I think there will be a domino effect, yes, at the very least, Lukashenko's regime will completely fall.
#Russia #Putin #Lukashenko #Belarus

Ukraine is currently in talks to purchase the MQ-9 Ripper drone. However, it is highly unlikely that such drones will be sold to them.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine

The capture of the entire Black Sea coast, meaning the capture of Odesa as well, is absolutely excluded. Russia will not be able to capture the Black Sea coast.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

Kyiv will never be captured.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

If we're talking about the military option—regaining any territories—then we're looking at a timeline of at least a notional 10 years, in my opinion. In response to the question: "Your most optimistic military forecast for Ukraine? Is there any chance of ever regaining any territories by military means?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Most likely, this will remain a mystery for many years and decades. Who blew up the Nord Streams.

Actually, it has been destroyed... This warehouse will definitely not be suitable for its intended use in the next year or two. About the recently destroyed ammunition warehouse in the Tver region.
#War in Ukraine #Russia

In a format similar to the summer of 2023, something more or less large-scale — no, it’s not possible. There are neither the forces nor the resources for that. Right now, those forces and resources are only sufficient to defend, hold positions, and carry out diversionary raids. A full-scale counteroffensive is definitely not possible within the next year. Answer to the question: "Is a new counteroffensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine possible?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

If Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, key logistical hubs, are captured, it would pave the way toward Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, two major urban agglomerations in the Donetsk region. However, I doubt that the Russian army has any realistic chance of achieving this large-scale plan by the end of this year. These urban agglomerations cover a vast area, and fighting for them would take a long time.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

In the near future, Pavlohrad is not under threat of attacks, and neither is Dnipro. It’s very, very far away. Shahed strikes—yes, and missile strikes—yes as well, but as for ground attacks, we can speculate and discuss them in the context of 2026 or 2027, if the war is not frozen. For the next many months, a year, or probably even longer, it’s obvious—no, Pavlohrad is still far out of reach. Ground attacks by Russia on the Ukrainian city of Pavlohrad are unlikely to occur before 2026.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

If the war is not stopped next year, it’s clear that next year, Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad are likely to be captured.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I don’t think Ukraine really needs such systems right now, because it’s fairly obvious to me that we’re unlikely to see a second use of such missiles. Their military value is absolutely zero. Speaking about missiles from Russia’s "Oreshnik" system.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

So, I do not expect a Ukrainian counteroffensive next year.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I wouldn't expect that. Answer to the question: 'Are we threatened by a world war in the next two years? 2024-2025'

I believe that the likelihood of the war being in some sense frozen, not finished but rather frozen, in 2025 is quite high.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

It seems to me that judging by the pace, the attack on Kupyansk and the fighting for it are more likely to happen in the summer of this year, maybe even in the fall, something like that. Things are moving pretty slowly there.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I do not expect a large-scale attack toward Sumy. In response to the question: "Will Russia be able to advance toward Sumy if it pushes Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia