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Predictions and promises monitor

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#Russia

Authors
256
Predictions
1303
Verified
453
Came true
63%
Complex
55%
Confident
49%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Mikhail Fishman

If we set aside the possibility of negotiations, which are likely to fail anyway, it will once again become apparent that the Russian army is advancing, and the Ukrainian army cannot effectively counter it.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Dmitry Shchiglik

As for Crimea, well, we shouldn’t forget about it, but during our lifetime, it’s not going anywhere from Russia—that’s clear.
Expected
#Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

I don’t believe in Putin’s ability to negotiate. I believe that Trump will do all the work, that he will go through the entire process. Yes, he will formulate peace proposals. Yes, he will bring some representatives of Ukraine and Russia to the table—not the presidents, not Zelensky or Putin. And then Putin will start his sabotage. Because Putin has no intention of ending the war, and he doesn’t need any peace agreement.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Putin #Trump #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

As for foreign agents and these new legislative measures, this is certain, it’s 100%. I’ve said many times that foreign agents will be stripped of their citizenship, and I have no doubt about it. (In Russia.)
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Maria Maksakova

Their production cost is around $38. Anything below $38 and above $5 allows Saudi Arabia to earn well. A figure like $36-35 could be reached. If such a price is established, I think the Russian Federation could last a maximum of 3-4 months. Russia will face serious economic problems if the price of oil falls below $38.
Expected
#Oil #Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Zhukovsky

There will be no reduction to 15%, as Aksakov claims, by spring or summer—it definitely won’t happen. This scenario is practically out of the question. Speaking about Russia’s key interest rate in 2025.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Alfred Koch

So, in the next couple of months, we will see some very important events on the front. Significant events that could impact the course of the war in Ukraine and potentially lead to the lifting of martial law.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

I think if it happens, it will be next year. They haven’t reached Pokrovsk yet. In response to the question: "When do you think the assault on Pokrovsk will take place?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Julian Roepcke

Everyone understands perfectly well that Russia will not stop there. Russia will go further. No one will say, “We’ve reached the borders of the areas annexed in 2022, and that’s it, we’ll stop here.” No, they’ll come up with some pretext, saying a buffer zone is needed or something else. That’s precisely why Ukrainians are now actively building new lines of fortifications in both the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
en

Roman Tsymbaliuk

Yes, I agree with you. In response to: "Military actions will not stop within three months... a freeze (in the war in Ukraine) is not in store for us in the next three months."
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

Military actions will not stop within three months, because all these scenarios we’re running through in our heads will also be running through the minds of decision-makers in Washington, Moscow, and Kyiv. Since there are still no solutions that satisfy everyone, I can firmly say that a freeze is not in store for us in the next three months.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Lev Schlosberg

Peace negotiations are still years, perhaps even decades, away. Right now, it’s impossible to put peace talks on the agenda. No one—neither Ukraine nor Russia—will engage in such negotiations. The only thing that can be done now is to agree to stop killing people.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

If British and American troops are indeed deployed there under an international UN mandate, you understand that they will never leave—they’ll dig trenches, settle in, and so on, whether in blue helmets or any other color. Moscow will never agree to this. Moscow will not accept a truce in the Ukraine war that involves a neutral buffer zone controlled by British forces.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #United Kingdom #USA
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

There will be a peace plan from the Americans, from Trump’s team. They will offer it to Putin. And then there are two scenarios: Putin more or less agrees, or he more or less refuses. I’m betting that he will more or less refuse, meaning I’m betting that there won’t be a truce in this format. But that’s just my guess.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Lev Schlosberg

Write it down. Open it 50 years from now, and you’ll see that I was right. Ukraine will never achieve a military victory over Russia. Never. And Russia will not achieve a military victory over Ukraine. Thousands and thousands of people will die.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

There will be no peace in the near future. At least, I’ll be very glad if I’m wrong. Speaking about a truce between Ukraine and Russia.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

The stability of the Russian ruble. So, the range of 93-97—I don’t really see the need for it to reach, maybe touch, 98-99, but that’s unlikely. The ruble exchange rate will be 93-97 per dollar until the end of 2024.
Expected
#Ruble #Dollar #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

It seems to me that Trump will start by crashing oil prices, working to bring them down in order to take away Putin's main advantage—money.
Expected
#Trump #Oil #Economy #Russia #USA
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

The problem is that, apparently, it’s not only the price of oil that will decrease, but also practically all the commodities Russia sells. Therefore, Russia’s financial outlook is not good.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

I think there will most likely be a call or some kind of conversation, or perhaps even a meeting... between Trump and Putin before the inauguration.
Expected
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA
ru → en

Maria Snegovaya

This is not advantageous for Putin at the moment. The situation on the front is good for him, and there is a threat to Ukraine that he will push further in the near future. But if such a freeze is reached, it will most likely be temporary because the U.S., Europe, and the West as a whole cannot provide Ukraine with a long-term security guarantee today.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I believe that at least until the inauguration, nothing will happen. Everything will continue as it is. There will be no ceasefire in the war in Ukraine until Trump’s inauguration.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

Putinism, having survived this war, will become stronger, tougher, and more aggressive toward its citizens. After the war in Ukraine ends, the Putin regime will grow stronger.
Expected
#Russia #Putin #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Nickolay Kapitonenko

It seems to me that this is more of a rhetorical trick, and to actually end the Russia-Ukraine war, not just in 24 hours but even within a few months, will be practically impossible. Trump might try, but the question is, at what cost, and not everything here will depend on him.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA
ru → en

Mikhail Fishman

This military economy is built like a bubble; it cannot avoid bursting. These are salaries not backed by increased labor productivity. These incomes rest on the fact that there are no people actually working. And these tanks keep rolling on, turning into scrap metal in Donbas, along with the missiles. In this sense, nothing is being produced—no new factories, no new enterprises. The economy isn’t developing; it’s swelling like a bubble. At some point, it will inevitably burst, but how, in what situation, and what that will look like, I don’t know. Talking about Russia's economy.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Yevgeny Popov

I think that even before January, Trump will offer Russia an obviously unfavorable deal regarding Ukraine, which we will, of course, reject. Donald will shrug and, in his usual manner, announce an unprecedented aid package for the Zelensky regime and the lifting of all restrictions on missiles.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Ian Matveev

I think that both before and after the New Year, the Ukrainian Kursk bridgehead will hold. And in the spring, more or less when all the mud has dried up, it could potentially be fully retaken with significant efforts from the Russian military.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Arti Green

There will be no just peace. It will be a compromise between justice and injustice, because the Western coalition is not inclined to push this conflict to the point of nuclear escalation. Therefore, they do not plan a military defeat of the Russian Federation. Some agreement will be reached, and I am confident it will happen, as the President of the United States has the leverage to achieve it. Knowing Donald Trump, I can say that he will likely reach this agreement fairly quickly. Regarding an agreement between Russia and Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Denis Leven

The likelihood of negotiations right now honestly seems rather low, because, for example, it doesn’t appear particularly advantageous for Russia to even sit down for talks at the moment, as what is currently happening in Donbas can be characterized as a success for the Russian army.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

So it’s most likely that this decision, if it is made—and I think it will be—will be made in February of next year. Talking about U.S. authorization for Ukraine to strike Russian territory with long-range missiles.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Sergey Grabskiy

Absolutely not. Absolutely not, because with the current pace of advance that we’re seeing, I virtually rule out such a possibility in the near future—at least for the next six months. In response to the question: "Could there be a threat to any regional centers in Ukraine?" (Will the Russian army be able to take any regional centers in Ukraine?)
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Konstantin Sonin

I am confident that Russia will, for many years—decades even—have to pay compensation for the destroyed Ukrainian cities, industries, and energy systems, and will have to make significant concessions to return to international trade and cooperate with other countries, at least partially. This will happen under any American administration, there’s no doubt about it.
Expected
#Russia #Ukraine #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Konstantin Sonin

I am confident that Russia will have to withdraw its troops from the occupied territories of Ukraine... This will happen under any American administration, there’s no doubt about it.
Expected
#Russia #Ukraine #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Olga Romanova

Therefore, mobilization, as I understand it, is absolutely inevitable, absolutely inevitable. In Russia.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

That’s a highly unlikely scenario for the rate to be 15% next year. Aliens are more likely to arrive. In response to: "By the start of the second quarter... they might start lowering the rate, maybe even to 15% in 2025. What do you think of that?" (Referring to Russia's key interest rate)
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Dmitry Oreshkin

Remember, back in August, Alaudinov, a Chechen general, said that the war would be over in 2-3 months. No, it won’t end; it will drag on for a long time. The war in Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Oleksandr Kharebin‬

As of today, and for the next few weeks or months, I don’t see any possibility of North Korean soldiers being present in Ukraine... Any clash between the Ukrainian army and North Koreans will take place on Russian territory, not on Ukrainian territory. This is an important point, and I want to emphasize it.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #North Korea #Russia
ru → en

Dmitry Medvedev

A somewhat weary Trump, spouting clichés like “I’ll offer a deal” and “I have great relationships with...,” will also be forced to follow all the system’s rules. He won’t be able to stop the war. Not in a day, not in three days, not in three months. And if he genuinely tries, he might end up like JFK. Trump will not be able to stop the war in Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Chingiz Mamedov

I don’t see quick solutions. Trump, of course, is now saying that it’s very simple—he’ll tell Zelensky one thing, he’ll tell Putin another, and they’ll be forced to agree with him... I don’t think that even if Trump is elected, this issue will be resolved that quickly.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

I thought that the most likely development of the Russia-Ukraine conflict would be a shift toward a Korean scenario. But it seems the situation will more likely resemble the Israel-Palestine conflict, where there are periodic meetings, consultations, negotiations, and peace agreements, followed by Nobel Peace Prizes. After that, everyone starts killing each other again. And, as you understand, this has been going on for almost 80 years. Relying on any truces to fundamentally change the situation is no longer possible.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Dmitry Bykov

The Kremlin will hold onto Ramzan Kadyrov until the very end... Analysts are correct when they say that the fall of Kadyrov will be a precursor to Putin's own fall. This will happen sooner.
Expected
#Russia #Kadyrov #Putin
ru → en

Dmitry Bykov

Do not think that Margarita Simonyan’s future is cloudless. Many think so, but it’s a dangerous, heavy delusion... Long before the entire system falls, we will see the fall of Margarita Simonyan. I feel very sorry for her.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Sergey Aslanyan

Russia is now a country of Chinese cars. The wave of Chinese will instantly recede as soon as the country wises up, stops waging war, and immediately regains the chance to lift the curtain and move toward Europe rather than Asia. The Chinese will disappear in that same moment. By "Chinese," he is referring to Chinese-made cars.
Expected
#Russia #China
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

It is evident that, as a result of Putin's rule, there will be a strong nationalist party, with its core obviously consisting of veterans of this war. Following Putin's rule, a significant nationalist party will emerge in Russia, founded on veterans of the war in Ukraine.
Expected
#Russia #Putin
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

If we summarize the situation on the front lines, there will only be bad news in the near future... Unfortunately, everything is unfolding according to a negative scenario. In the near future, news from the front lines of the war in Ukraine will be unfavorable for Ukraine's supporters.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Michael Nacke

I think the surprise over North Koreans participating in the war and being used in combat roles will, by the middle of next year, become quite a common story. In other words, we’ll be watching plenty of videos of FPV drones taking down North Koreans.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #North Korea #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Vadim Radionov

I don’t think that anything will change in a global sense immediately after the elections... The U.S. elections are a significant event that shapes future developments. But I don’t believe that once the day has passed and the votes are counted, we’ll wake up in a different world. If things do change, it will happen gradually. In response to the question: "Do you feel that Putin will stop soon after the U.S. elections?" (Implying that Putin will stop the war in Ukraine after the 2024 U.S. presidential election)
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #2024 United States presidential election
ru → en

Vadim Radionov

I don’t share the optimistic predictions that the war will end this year. It seems to me that this process, this momentum that has been set in motion, will last a long time. But maybe a black swan will spread its wings, and it will all end quickly. Speaking about the war in Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en