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Predictions and promises monitor

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#Russia

Authors
339
Predictions
1959
Verified
754
Came true
63%
Complex
58%
Confident
48%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Mark Feygin

I don't think what's happening in Istanbul can be considered a step towards peace in any way. As for a high-level meeting, it won't happen in the format proposed by Ukraine. Russia won't agree to Ukraine's proposal for a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Zelensky #Putin
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

Well done, you finally did something decisive without waiting for the United States. They will definitely join the sanctions against Russian oil exports, I'm sure—whether it's in September, October, or November, it doesn't matter, but they will join.
Expected
#USA #Russia #European Union #Oil
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

A weakened Russia suits China as a forced, subordinate partner. Therefore, I don't think any war could happen between Russia and China in the near future. I think everything suits China today.
Expected
#Russia #China
ru → en

Sergey Boyko

I still think that Telegram will follow in WhatsApp's footsteps, but that's just speculation. WhatsApp will definitely be blocked, and Telegram most likely will as well. In Russia.
Expected
#Russia #Censorship #Internet
ru → en

Sergey Boyko

It certainly looks like it, that's exactly what's happening. This is part of the same pattern as the mobile internet shutdowns. I'll just remind you that Russia set a record for mobile shutdowns and the filtering of all previous services. I'd say this is precisely about building that very "Cheburnet," and as a resident of Russia, I'd slowly prepare for whitelists. I'm sure that if Putin maintains his health and power for some prolonged period of time—say, a year or two or three—we'll ultimately arrive at whitelists. That's when there's a list of what's allowed and everything else is forbidden. In response to the hosts' question: "Doesn't this look like preparation for a sovereign network - the Cheburnet?" (in Russia)
Expected
#Russia #Internet #Censorship
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

I'm completely confident that at some point, Putin will try to strike the Baltic states. I believe he has many plans drawn up regarding Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. Of course, he is unlikely to go for Finland, given his past bad experience and the fact that the Finns are more prepared to defend their country.
Expected
#Russia #Latvia #Lithuania #Estonia #Finland #Putin
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

I expect a decrease to 18%. Answer to the question: "What do you expect from July 25th, what will the Central Bank do?" (with the key rate in Russia)
Completely came true
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Alfred Koch

In 50 days... Siversk will not be taken, Serebryanka will not be taken, Kupyansk will not be taken, Borova will not be taken, they will not reach Zaporizhzhia. Russian forces.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

The ice is thin, but the Central Bank will lower the rate anyway—it seems they've decided there's no point in protecting Russians from inflation.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

I'm confident the next step will be a ban on artificial intelligence. A ban on everything that, according to Putin, responds to your queries incorrectly.
Expected
#Russia #Censorship
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Many researchers suggest that Russia has a plan to move further towards the village of Velykyi Burluk... But by the end of summer, no, that's too far, it's beyond Russia's capabilities right now.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

In September, when these 50 days are up, it will be clear that no Pokrovsks have been taken, Konstantinovka and Druzhkivka haven't been taken, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk haven't been taken, and there's no buffer zone in the Sumy region.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

To be fair, regarding Russia's much-vaunted 1,000 strikes per day—if they are achieved, and they most likely will be... Russia will be able to launch 1,000 drones at Ukraine simultaneously.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ekaterina Kotrikadze

I think Trump will announce sanctions tomorrow, but they won't be the kind Lindsey Graham is proposing. I believe Graham's suggested sanctions – 500% tariffs against Russia's trade partners – are too extreme; I don't think that will happen. I don't believe Trump will go that far. I think the sanctions will be different, much less painful, but still a significant blow to Russia.
Expected
#USA #Russia #Trump #War in Ukraine #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Sergei Markov

The German Chancellor stated that Russia must pay 500 billion euros to Ukraine. And then Russia can ask for the 200 billion euros frozen in the EU to be returned to them. Hmm. By the way, in that case, they wouldn't give back the 200 billion euros for anything. They'd find something to fault.
Expected
#Russia #Ukraine #Germany #European Union #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

I think it will continue. My terrible prediction—God forbid it comes true, I wish death on no one. But unfortunately, there's reason to believe it will, because there's a huge process of capital outflow from Russia. Responding to the comment: 'People who knew too much are unexpectedly passing away. It's not just about the minister. There's Transneft, and even before that, in 2022, there was a whole series of such incidents' (Referring to a series of strange deaths among Russian officials and oil executives)
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

First, Putin says, recognize these territories and give me guarantees, and then I'll be ready to stop the hot phase of the war. He understands that if the war stops now along this line, it will lead to endless negotiations that will last decades and certainly won't result in the recognition of occupied territory.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Trump promised to announce a surprise for Russia on Monday, July 14th. Everyone's guessing what it could be. My opinion is that Trump will issue a soft ultimatum: If Russia doesn't make concessions, a harsh sanctions law will be passed: a 500% trade tariff for countries that trade with Russia and don't pay "tribute" to Ukraine. And a partial lifting of sanctions if Russia makes concessions. But of course, no one can accurately predict Trump. Not even he himself.
Expected
#USA #Russia #Trump #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ian Matveev

I don't think so. Answer to the question: "Do you think Russia is facing another Chechen war?"
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

I don't think they'll be thrown into active combat on Ukrainian territory. Instead, they'll likely be stationed somewhere along the borders to relieve the Russian army, so they can cover the Belgorod, Bryansk, and partially Kursk regions from potential invasions by Ukrainian forces. Answer to the comment: "Heard the news about 30,000 North Koreans being sent to the front?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #North Korea #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Ian Matveev

Putin also has an awarded weapon, but he'll never have the guts to make the right choice. Meaning, Putin won't shoot himself.
Expected
#Putin #Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

No, of course not, and it won't be able to next year either; there are no prospects for it. Answer to the question: "Do you think Russia will be able to capture Kherson this year?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Her criminal case definitely awaits her. Answer to the question: "Where do you see Elvira Nabiullina after some time?"
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Lucy Grin

This is a rehearsal for a speech in Nuremberg: "we have nothing to do with this, we are journalists." Mark my words, remember this broadcast. The speech will be identical. Kiselev... Dmitry Kiselev will be tried analogously to the Nuremberg trials.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Sanctions against Russia: a new bill by Senator Lindsey Graham, who has been receiving bribes from Zelensky for many years, on 500% tariffs against all who trade with Russia and do not pay Ukraine, will be introduced in Congress on July 9. Trump has effectively given his consent to it. The prediction is that it will be passed. But. The words "the president must" in it will be replaced with "the president may." And Trump will not impose such tariffs. But he will use them to intimidate both Russia and China and any other country he wants to scare.
Expected
#Russia #USA #War in Ukraine #Trump
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

The conditions formulated by Putin. Putin very much wants to gain a lot before negotiations begin, before the hot phase of the war stops. As I understand it, he's achieved his goal; he'll get sanctions. And these sanctions will be very painful. Answer to the question: "Under what conditions, in your opinion, will peace negotiations take place?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #USA #Economy #Ukraine
ru → en

Vitaly Portnikov

He [Trump] will therefore start to consider this sanctions bill. Most likely, Congress will pass it, unless Putin manages to do something beforehand.
Expected
#USA #Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ilia Novikov

TCC, in Russian, is a military enlistment office... My prediction is they'll try to play with this for a while, then they'll run out of military enlistment offices that can be hit by drones. Using a large missile or several missiles to completely destroy a military enlistment office is a rather unprofitable project. And in a month or two, we won't hear about these targeted attacks on military enlistment offices anymore. In a month or two, Russia will stop targeted attacks on Ukraine's TCCs.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

My prediction, and unfortunately I think it will definitely come true, is that the Kremlin will gradually block other communication methods and channels to push people towards using the Max messenger.
Expected
#Russia #Censorship #Internet
ru → en

Tikhon Dzyadko

My answer is, unfortunately, I don't think there will be a truce this year. Answer to the question: "Do you think there's any hope for peace or at least a truce this year?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Sergey Aleksashenko

Yes, exactly. That's why I'm saying this law won't be passed. Responding to the comment: "The first thought that comes to mind when you start thinking about Lindsey Graham's project is, what about China, what about India?"
Expected
#USA #Russia
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

Launchers are in short supply for them, carriers are in short supply, so there aren't many missiles in their volleys, which is good. But the number of drones is growing more and more. And I'm afraid we'll see 1,000 before the end of summer, literally. The number increases every day there. And Ukrainians urgently need to work on this. By the end of summer, Russia will launch 1,000 drones at Ukraine in a single volley.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Dmitry Treshchanin

I don't believe in this Max at all. Doesn't believe that many people will use the new Russian messenger Max, or that it will replace WhatsApp and Telegram.
Expected
#Russia #Internet
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

I think the question of blocking WhatsApp and Telegram is a matter of, if not months, then a very foreseeable future, once they launch their Max and get enough users onto it. Max is a Russian messenger service.
Expected
#Russia #Internet #Censorship #Telegram
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

I actually think it's not just that the cops don't care; I'm personally sure they'll be covered this time. There will be no consequences for the killing in Ekaterinburg. No police officers will be held accountable for anything. Speaking about the deaths of two Azerbaijanis during their detention in Ekaterinburg.
Expected
#Russia #Azerbaijan
ru → en

Garry Kasparov

I think that in the next 10 years, the state of Russia within its current borders will not exist; I have no doubt about that.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Oleksiy Arestovych

My prediction is this: supplies will resume, but not in the same volume, and it'll be like a drop in the ocean. Meanwhile, Putin will escalate the air and ground campaigns against Ukraine. And following the results of the summer-autumn campaign, another proposal will follow, only this time it won't be for 4 regions, but 6.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

Hereditary dictator Aliyev spat in Putin's direction once, although I'm absolutely sure they'll reconcile and come to an agreement after some time; I have no doubt about it.
Expected
#Russia #Azerbaijan
ru → en

Ian Matveev

I think a truce will happen in 2026. Maybe it will be concluded in 2025, but in 2026 we (Russia and Ukraine) will most likely be in a state of truce.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Ian Matveev

A Kherson counteroffensive is impossible. How would they cross the Dnieper? It's unrealistic for anyone, neither the Russian nor the Ukrainian army, so nothing serious is brewing on that front.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

How many more years will Putin need to achieve his goals? Putin's goals are unclear, so it's unknown. But generally, the goal that Putin is truly striving for—the destruction of Ukraine—I think he won't have enough years; that is, he will die sooner.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Putin
ru → en

Sergei Markov

In Azerbaijan, all five detained employees of Sputnik Azerbaijan have been released on their own recognizance. Excellent news! Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan have gradually started to emerge from the crisis. My forecast: relations will normalize not rapidly, but quite quickly. However, only citizens of Azerbaijan have been released so far, while Russian citizens remain under arrest.
Expected
#Russia #Azerbaijan
ru → en

Ian Matveev

It's obvious Putin doesn't want to apologize at a high level. They're both dictators, both have taken hostages and beaten them, which is, of course, terrible. In Azerbaijan, they grabbed some completely random Russian guys—one's an IT specialist, another something else—and they've all been identified. They're not drug dealers or anything. These are the ways of things: two dictators taking hostages. Maybe there will be exchanges. I think it will all somehow resolve within a month. I hope the people will be free.
Expected
#Russia #Azerbaijan
ru → en

Yevgeny Kiselyov

Putin is absolutely sick, we see that. Completely unhinged. Totally obsessed with placing the foot of the last surviving Russian soldier somewhere on the border between Ukraine and Poland, no matter the cost, no matter the human losses, no matter the reputational damage to Russia on the international stage. That will never happen.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Poland
ru → en

Yevgenia Albats

Honestly, I think the question is certainly not about decades, I think it will happen in the next 3-5 years. Answer to the question: "Has your forecast for the timing of regime changes in Russia changed? In how many years or decades will liberalization be possible in Russia?"
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Andrey Yakovlev

Russia isn't going anywhere, regardless. All these expectations from some colleagues that Russia will collapse or disappear are deeply naive. There will be no collapse of Russia.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

They are trying to scare us by saying there will be no sanctions, look, Hungary and Slovakia have blocked new sanctions. Well, let me give you a forecast: another week or two, 1-2 weeks, and there will already be the 18th package of sanctions. That is my simple forecast. 18th package of sanctions against Russia
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia #European Union
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

Tens of thousands of high-ranking state security executives were shot during Stalin's time. Therefore, they are not reintroducing the death penalty because they care about the people and do not want to scare them, but because they know that they themselves will be the first to be included in the execution lists. They are doing this for their own safety, for their own selfish interests, and not for humanitarian reasons. So Mironov can certainly call for the reintroduction of the death penalty in Russia, but I do not think that will happen.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Igor Eidman

This utterly pointless and merciless war being waged by paranoiac Putin will, unfortunately, not end as long as he remains in power and in good health, regardless of the efforts of the international community.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Putin #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

There is no deal with Trump and there won't be one. I don't expect any new visits from Witkoff to Moscow in the near future; there definitely won't be any.
Expected
#Russia #USA
ru → en

Yulia Latynina

And if Trump really does sell Ukraine weapons tomorrow funded by massive European money—and corners Putin in Istanbul—I think Putin’s mood will change too. It’s just that I doubt it will happen. I seriously doubt Trump would do it for Zelensky, who is a client of the “deep state”…
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Trump
ru → en