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This war will inevitably end in the collapse of Putin's state, if we take a ten-year perspective. The war in Ukraine.
#Russia #Putin #War in Ukraine

I think that in the next 10 years, the state of Russia within its current borders will not exist; I have no doubt about that.
#Russia

My prediction is this: supplies will resume, but not in the same volume, and it'll be like a drop in the ocean. Meanwhile, Putin will escalate the air and ground campaigns against Ukraine. And following the results of the summer-autumn campaign, another proposal will follow, only this time it won't be for 4 regions, but 6.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA

Hereditary dictator Aliyev spat in Putin's direction once, although I'm absolutely sure they'll reconcile and come to an agreement after some time; I have no doubt about it.
#Russia #Azerbaijan

I think a truce will happen in 2026. Maybe it will be concluded in 2025, but in 2026 we (Russia and Ukraine) will most likely be in a state of truce.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

A Kherson counteroffensive is impossible. How would they cross the Dnieper? It's unrealistic for anyone, neither the Russian nor the Ukrainian army, so nothing serious is brewing on that front.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

How many more years will Putin need to achieve his goals? Putin's goals are unclear, so it's unknown. But generally, the goal that Putin is truly striving for—the destruction of Ukraine—I think he won't have enough years; that is, he will die sooner.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Putin

In Azerbaijan, all five detained employees of Sputnik Azerbaijan have been released on their own recognizance. Excellent news! Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan have gradually started to emerge from the crisis. My forecast: relations will normalize not rapidly, but quite quickly. However, only citizens of Azerbaijan have been released so far, while Russian citizens remain under arrest.
#Russia #Azerbaijan

It's obvious Putin doesn't want to apologize at a high level. They're both dictators, both have taken hostages and beaten them, which is, of course, terrible. In Azerbaijan, they grabbed some completely random Russian guys—one's an IT specialist, another something else—and they've all been identified. They're not drug dealers or anything. These are the ways of things: two dictators taking hostages. Maybe there will be exchanges. I think it will all somehow resolve within a month. I hope the people will be free.
#Russia #Azerbaijan

Neither Merz nor Cramer has called and never will call Putin. By "Cramer," it likely means Keir Starmer.
#Putin #Russia #Germany #United Kingdom #War in Ukraine

Putin is absolutely sick, we see that. Completely unhinged. Totally obsessed with placing the foot of the last surviving Russian soldier somewhere on the border between Ukraine and Poland, no matter the cost, no matter the human losses, no matter the reputational damage to Russia on the international stage. That will never happen.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Poland

Honestly, I think the question is certainly not about decades, I think it will happen in the next 3-5 years. Answer to the question: "Has your forecast for the timing of regime changes in Russia changed? In how many years or decades will liberalization be possible in Russia?"
#Russia

Russia isn't going anywhere, regardless. All these expectations from some colleagues that Russia will collapse or disappear are deeply naive. There will be no collapse of Russia.
#Russia

They are trying to scare us by saying there will be no sanctions, look, Hungary and Slovakia have blocked new sanctions. Well, let me give you a forecast: another week or two, 1-2 weeks, and there will already be the 18th package of sanctions. That is my simple forecast. 18th package of sanctions against Russia
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia #European Union

Tens of thousands of high-ranking state security executives were shot during Stalin's time. Therefore, they are not reintroducing the death penalty because they care about the people and do not want to scare them, but because they know that they themselves will be the first to be included in the execution lists. They are doing this for their own safety, for their own selfish interests, and not for humanitarian reasons. So Mironov can certainly call for the reintroduction of the death penalty in Russia, but I do not think that will happen.
#Russia

This utterly pointless and merciless war being waged by paranoiac Putin will, unfortunately, not end as long as he remains in power and in good health, regardless of the efforts of the international community.
#War in Ukraine #Putin #Russia #Ukraine

There is no deal with Trump and there won't be one. I don't expect any new visits from Witkoff to Moscow in the near future; there definitely won't be any.
#Russia #USA

And if Trump really does sell Ukraine weapons tomorrow funded by massive European money—and corners Putin in Istanbul—I think Putin’s mood will change too. It’s just that I doubt it will happen. I seriously doubt Trump would do it for Zelensky, who is a client of the “deep state”…
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Trump

Russia is not ready for total war. No matter how much Z-supporters demand total mobilization from Putin and the conversion of industry to a war footing, it will never happen.
#Russia #Economy #Economy of Russia #War in Ukraine

Can Putin hold out? How long can he last? The war will end soon. Even if it doesn’t wrap up by the end of this year, it will still end before long.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Russia must suffer a crushing military defeat in Ukraine to prevent the war from spreading further. If Ukraine fails to defeat Russia, the war will continue onward.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Next, I suppose they’ll go all the way and pin a yellow star on the lapel of every “foreign agent”—that is, ban them from voting and from standing for office. Although it seems they already aren’t allowed to run… for now they still have the right to participate in elections, but I think that will soon be revoked. In Russia, foreign agents will be prohibited from voting in elections.
#Russia

And it seems to me that after Iran, Trump’s rhetoric toward the Kremlin and the war in Ukraine will change very dramatically.
#Trump #Russia #Ukraine #War in Ukraine #Iran

I believe that a year from now, and even two years from now, the war will still be ongoing—and Putin’s regime will endure one year from now, two years, three years, and even five years on.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Ukraine

I don’t believe Vladimir Putin will even come close to acting like Lukashenko. He won’t release a single person. Putin will not free political prisoners as Lukashenko did on June 21, 2025.
#Putin #Russia

At that Putin forum of his, his little elite reached a “deal”—as if it were a joke—that Afghanistan would send its specialists and builders to Russia. I’m certain we won’t see any Afghan builders or specialists here in Russia; we’ll only see products from Afghanistan.
#Russia #Afghanistan

It is well known that Putin will not lift the moratorium on the death penalty. Because the death penalty in modern Russia has been outsourced. If someone needs to be executed, it is not the state, the courts, or the investigators who handle it, but specially trained individuals.
#Russia #Putin

Yes. And this year it most likely won’t come to that—unless something falls apart. In response to the question: “It seems to me that we’re still a long way from encircling Pokrovsk or capturing Konstantinovka”
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Here are a bunch of factors why the ruble is strong. In my opinion, this situation is temporary. There will be a reversal. I think when the rate is cut again by 100 basis points in July, by around August, the ruble will gradually start to weaken.
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

I don't think that either Ukraine or Russia will have enough strength to continue this war until 2026. I have a feeling that some kind of political process has begun—a process of understanding that this war needs to be stopped.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

We believe that within a month, a month and a half, or two at most, Russian troops will most likely be able to reach the settlements of Khoten, Pisarevka, and Yunakovka, and will most likely stop there, not advancing any further.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

The population of Russia will decrease by about half by the end of the century. I don’t think the situation in Ukraine and Belarus will be significantly better.
#Russia

Gazprom is exerting very strong pressure; it wants to be allowed—and apparently it will be allowed—to index gas tariffs twice a year. In Russia.
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

You're looking at such a long horizon for the interest rate, it's very difficult. The world is so turbulent that even a month is a long time. I think, most likely, they will keep the rate unchanged and say they will continue to monitor the trend of slowing inflation, but the Central Bank is ready to raise the rate if inflationary pressure in the Russian economy intensifies again. This is roughly the scenario I expect. In response to the question: "I understand it's still quite early to make predictions about the next Central Bank meeting, but if the decision is made based on behind-the-scenes situations, intrigues, internal power struggles, what forecast would you make for the next meeting on July 25? What will they do with the rate? Will they keep lowering it?"
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

In a nuclear war against NATO, I proceed from the assumption that it will happen. That it will be a war between NATO and Russia. Putin will lose. Russia will cease to exist.
#Nuclear weapons #Russia #NATO #Putin

I don't know whether Russia will leave Crimea, or under what conditions it might. It will leave Crimea — it's just a matter of time.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Literally yesterday, the issue of capping the price of Russian oil was being discussed, lowering the cap from 60 to 45... The G7 meeting is supposed to start on Sunday or Monday, where they were expected to agree on this new price cap of 45 dollars, and then the European Union was supposed to support it by the end of June. But today, the oil price has already gone up — it's already 75 dollars per barrel, instead of 60-something — and now, it seems to me, they won’t dare to lower it to 45.
#Oil #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

Oh, that’s still a long way off. Fighting for the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration can only begin after the enemy firmly secures the defensive line of Pokrovsk, Kostyantynivka, and Chasiv Yar. Only after that. Response to the question: "Are the battles for Kramatorsk and Sloviansk next?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

No, never. I don't believe in a truce or an end to the conflict. It's impossible. Answer to the question: "Will the conflict end in 2025?" (War in Ukraine)
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Technically, anything is possible... But there’s no strength for it, and it’s unclear why they would do it, so I don’t expect it. Still, we sometimes see illogical actions from the military. I give a half-percent chance that they’ll move along the border from Sumy region to Kyiv region — strictly along the border. That’s my forecast for this possible course of action by the Russian army. Answer to the question: “Could Russian troops move from Sumy region along the border toward Kyiv region?”
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I think that as long as Russia doesn't win the war in Ukraine — and it has no chance of winning — it won’t attack anyone else.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

I think Yavlinsky isn’t as irritating; he’s less visible on the local level — it’s Moscow, not Pskov. Yavlinsky seems to be less media-present than Shlosberg. He makes some strange statements once every six months, and that’s it. In this sense, I think he doesn’t face any particular risks. Yavlinsky won’t be arrested like Shlosberg.
#Russia

There’s a very unpleasant detail — depending on the type of penal colony, the days spent under house arrest don’t count toward the future sentence if it turns out to be a real prison term. And I believe Shlosberg will get a real sentence. Simply because it’s Pskov — people there are fed up with him. We can see how biased the attitude toward him is, specifically in Pskov.
#Russia

And don’t even hope that these 500% sanctions will be fully approved — no, no. Tomorrow Putin will call him on the phone, say a few compliments to Trump, Trump will melt into his chair, and do everything he says. The Lindsey Graham bill on sanctions against Russia and 500% tariffs on countries that buy oil and gas from Russia will not be passed.
#USA #Russia

A national messenger app called MAX is currently being prepared for launch in Russia. It’s being developed by VK. MAX is being presented as the main, central messenger, intended to funnel all Russians into one platform for complete control over domestic traffic. In short, a replacement for Telegram. It will be connected to government services and modeled after China’s WeChat. I’m already predicting a complete failure. After all, the Chinese dictatorship differs from the Russian one in having actual professionals, as well as much larger investments in building apps for their digital gulag. Plus, corruption in China isn’t as bad. In the end, the entire budget for MAX will get embezzled, the result will be a laggy messenger, it’ll eventually be removed from the App Store due to sanctions, and that will be the end of it.
#Russia

The story with Shlosberg is very sad and tragic. The case will end in imprisonment, although it's strange how a call for peace can be considered “discrediting the armed forces.”
#Russia

I think that unfortunately, Putin will still manage to hold on until September, and Congress won't start considering that very hellish sanctions package or the 500% tariffs on Russian oil. Referring to the Lindsey Graham bill.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #USA

I don't have the feeling of a triumphant march on Sumy. The attempt to plug these gaps with convicts also turned out to be less than absolute, because the convicts, as the Prigozhin march showed, are not the most reliable followers. I think there will be a mobilization. There will be another mobilization in Russia.
#Russia #War in Ukraine

The appeal demanding the return of the death penalty comes from Sergey Mironov, the leader of a parliamentary party, although Klishas cut it down. But the fact that they will succeed in introducing the death penalty—if they have enough time, and they don't have much—is beyond doubt. Russia will introduce the death penalty.
#Russia

No, they can't. Change from the bottom cannot happen. These hopes are illusory. Response to the question: "Can change come from the bottom in Russia?"
#Russia

We will strike Moscow with ballistic missiles. Please write down what I said, dear friends. What's the date today? June 8th? So, on June 8th I said that we will strike Moscow with our ballistic missiles. Please write it down. Ukraine will strike Moscow with ballistic missiles.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

By the way, this may be the first time that some security officials connected to the Chechen leadership have been detained. A criminal case was even opened. I don’t believe this case will be pursued or that there will be any serious consequences. Referring to the security officials detained in connection with the abduction of Areg Shchepikhin on June 2, 2025, at Yaroslavsky Station in Moscow.
#Russia

Tomorrow, Ukraine is also very likely to disrupt the exchange. Referring to the exchange of prisoners of war and the bodies of the deceased between Ukraine and Russia.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

In the end, Ukraine — this is my prediction, and I may be wrong — I believe it will change its non-nuclear status. That’s my forecast, a long-term prediction. Because there’s no other way out.
#Ukraine #Nuclear weapons #War in Ukraine #Russia

All he can do, at some point — and we will see this — is say that Ukraine needs to agree to the terms proposed by Moscow. Not all of them, but it must agree to the four regions. This will come up in one form or another. If you want to stop the bloodshed, if you don’t want retaliatory strikes like what happened on June 1st, you have to go, you have to swallow your pride and give up those four regions. That’s roughly the kind of message we’ll hear. This is the last line Trump will cross, I think. Trump, in one form or another, will propose that Ukraine give up Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions in favor of Russia.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump

After the strike on Russian airbases, Russia probably has, at most, 50 operational carriers left, including Tu-160 bombers — which the Russians are unlikely to risk using in the war against Ukraine. Well, it's hard to say.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

During this year's summer campaign, I'm not sure that Russian forces will be able to accomplish the tasks set before them and create any significant buffer zone 10–15–20 km deep and stretching along the entire border of the Sumy region — no, that's unlikely.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

As for peace, and the promised end to the Russian-Ukrainian war — which never happened and clearly won't happen anytime soon.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Years go by, and, hypothetically speaking, whose statue would stand in a Moscow square? I don't believe it would be Putin's.
#Putin #Russia

The Russian military is already attacking Ukraine with all available forces. I haven’t seen Russian drones or missiles holding back anywhere. They’ve recently been setting new records for the number of drones used in a single strike, even without any SBU attacks. So I don’t think we’ll see anything supernatural or particularly unusual. Most likely, Putin will just continue his campaign of terror, and that’s it. In response to the question: "What will happen to the attacks on Ukraine after the SBU strike?" (referring to the SBU attack on Russian military airfields on June 1, 2025)
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Everyone knows that Putin definitely doesn't want the war to end. Under no circumstances is he planning to end it. Basically, what other people want doesn't matter at all. He absolutely will not end it. That’s clear from all his internal rhetoric.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

Eighty-eight senators are co-authors of the resolution demanding harsh secondary sanctions and 500% tariffs against buyers of Russian oil... Senator Wicker stated that Trump asked the Senate to hold off until the end of this week. So this issue should be resolved next week. And after yesterday’s statements by Thune and Jackson, I have no doubt that the resolution will be adopted.
#USA #Russia #Economy #War in Ukraine

If Russia loses the war within the next 5 years — and I’m betting on it, I’m 90% confident — it will be because Russia has run out of resources, has nothing left to fight with, and its economy is in recession and decline.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Well, that’s nonsense. It’s nonsense. There will be no nuclear strike. In response to the remark: "Alarming news. U.S. citizens — the American embassy in Kyiv is urging heightened vigilance... There are reports that the Americans might be fearing a nuclear strike" (on Ukraine)
#Nuclear weapons #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia