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Predictions and promises monitor

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#Russia

Authors
304
Predictions
1603
Verified
612
Came true
63%
Complex
57%
Confident
49%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Mark Feygin

Right now they are developing some kind of mechanism whereby, no matter what Orban’s position is, they simply activate the mechanism — and that’s it. Europe will not lift the sanctions. Sanctions against Russia.
Expected
#Europe #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Many people are counting on the Central Bank to somehow miraculously defeat inflation and start lowering its key interest rate, which would then bring down loan rates as well. But that is definitely not going to happen.
Expected
#Economy #Economy of Russia #Russia
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

Only Moscow matters. That’s why strikes must be directed solely at Moscow — and then this war will end, and it will end very quickly. There are no other ways to stop this war.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

For now, everything is being done for Putin — in favor of Putin, in the name of Putin, to support Putin. But nothing will come of it, in my opinion. So this will eventually lead to a tightening of sanctions against Russia. On the relationship between Trump and Putin
Expected
#Trump #Putin #Russia
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

I believe that once Kadyrov is gone, within a few months — let alone a few years — all that will be left of him in Chechnya will be memories, that there once was such a person as Kadyrov. Everything will be renamed, everything will be removed.
Expected
#Kadyrov #Russia
ru → en

Vasily Koltashov

Russia has incorporated four new regions. It will take in four more, and then another four. This will likely continue to happen.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Vladislav Inozemtsev

No, it won't. Answer to the question: "Do you think it's possible to expect that in the near future — say, by the 100th day of Trump's presidency or by May 9 — the war will come to a halt?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

I strongly disagree with the idea that any form of ending the war in Ukraine will lead to some kind of thaw, a weakening of the regime, or anything like that. I don't believe in it, and I don’t recommend that you do either.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Stanislav Kucher

My prediction remains the same as it was six months ago, three months ago, and a month ago — namely, that Trump will not achieve real peace in Ukraine. Putin will continue to escalate... Therefore, in 2025, I believe there will be no lasting peace between Russia and Ukraine. And even if, by some miracle, a 30-day ceasefire is agreed upon, it will be broken.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #Putin
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Since it has the nature of a behind-the-scenes financial and economic deal, Kirill Dmitriev is a key figure here. So, without a doubt, this deal will go through. Calling it “peace talks” doesn’t feel right. I believe it will be a situation that Trump will sell as his victory — and after that, the war will resume. In response to the question: “Do you think peace negotiations will reach their logical conclusion, or will everything continue indefinitely?”
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

I still don't believe that Israel and Netanyahu will appear at the May 9th parade. I think it's some kind of hoax, planted in order to discredit the Russian authorities.
Expected
#Russia #Israel
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

If we're talking about the military option—regaining any territories—then we're looking at a timeline of at least a notional 10 years, in my opinion. In response to the question: "Your most optimistic military forecast for Ukraine? Is there any chance of ever regaining any territories by military means?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

In a format similar to the summer of 2023, something more or less large-scale — no, it’s not possible. There are neither the forces nor the resources for that. Right now, those forces and resources are only sufficient to defend, hold positions, and carry out diversionary raids. A full-scale counteroffensive is definitely not possible within the next year. Answer to the question: "Is a new counteroffensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine possible?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Maria Pevchikh

Remember this tweet. Later, they’ll all come to us: Kirill Dmitriev, all those technocrats, the employees of today’s Ministry of Economic Development and Finance, or the bankers from Sberbank — Gref and the rest. After Putin, they will appear in a completely different light. They’ll be soft and fluffy. They’ll say things on TV that melt our hearts. They’ll smile and talk about how important and heroic Alexei Navalny was, how they secretly supported him all along, and how vital his work was.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

In reality, Putin won’t last long. When this regime collapses, all those territories will return to Ukraine — there’s no doubt about that. And all those criminals who carried out these seizures — we will hunt them down around the world and bring them to justice. Justice will prevail. Sometimes, it doesn’t come immediately.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Putin #Russia
ru → en

Arti Green

I don’t expect anything in the foreseeable future. Not until Russia moves to the next level of mobilization. I mean, unless it brings another half a million soldiers into service and increases the level of industrial mobilization, I don’t see any significant threats on any part of the front.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Dmitry Gudkov

Three years of war and the West’s indecisiveness, I think, have given Putin more confidence... That’s why he won’t go anywhere in 2030.
Expected
#Putin #Russia
ru → en

Grigory Tamar

No, there won’t be. There will be no ceasefire. I say this with deep sorrow. In response to the question: “Do you think there will be a full ceasefire by Easter?”
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

A lot of factors came together. On the one hand, people wanted to get rid of foreign currency; on the other, there was lower demand for it from importers; and on yet another, there was a desire to bet on the decline of the dollar. And this is the result we got. But I think we’ll see a reversal in April — most likely that’s what will happen. We’ll see. In April, the ruble is expected to weaken against the dollar.
Expected
#Ruble #Dollar #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Ivan Preobrazhensky

One can be fairly certain about the upcoming negotiations: either it will once again be talks in Riyadh, or it will be a direct call between Putin and Trump — and they will finally come to some kind of agreement. Most likely, an energy agreement on non-strike commitments and a deal regarding the Black Sea will be signed. Because the Ukrainian side will agree to sign them.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia #Trump #Putin
ru → en

Mikhail Fishman

Trump will continue to build relations with Putin one way or another. Trump will simply start pulling out of the war in Ukraine. And it will end pretty soon because of that. That’s my prediction. And I would be glad to be wrong. It seems to me that soon, America will no longer be part of this war.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Trump #Russia
ru → en

Dmitry Demushkin

To imagine that Ukraine would give up or withdraw from the territories of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia — that’s a strange assumption. Even if Trump joins the war alongside Putin, even that won’t lead to Ukraine agreeing to give them up.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Dmitry Demushkin

Someday, the hot phase of the conflict will come to an end. The sides are currently engaged in a war of attrition. But I don’t really believe in the signing of any peace agreement right now — because the interests of the parties are diametrically opposed.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Vitalij Manskij

I think a new Putin will emerge. There’s virtually no hope that a “Gorbachev” will come after Putin.
Expected
#Putin #Russia
ru → en

Vitalij Manskij

I believe that Putin got lucky with the Russian people. And he will die in power.
Expected
#Putin #Russia
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

It’s possible that France might want to send troops to Ukraine on its own. However, it’s unclear how they would be supplied there, and what would happen if the Russian army strikes French forces. In that case, Paris would find itself in a very difficult position — either start a war with Russia or quietly withdraw the troops and admit military defeat. Therefore, we’ll risk making a prediction — Macron won’t send anyone anywhere. All his statements are loud but empty political PR. Until the Americans authorize the deployment of European — and specifically French — troops to Ukraine, no Europeans will appear there.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #France #Europe #USA #Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Pastukhov

Most likely, if the negotiations continue at this pace for just a bit longer, two events await us: a large-scale spring-summer Russian offensive on the front lines, and the simultaneous disappearance of America from the picture.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Andrey Zubov

I would like Putin to repent... Once he is gone, the war will truly end within two weeks. I am absolutely sure of that. And it will most likely end exactly this way.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Vyacheslav Maltsev

Erdogan is reasoning quite correctly. He understands that a future conflict between Turkey and Russia is inevitable. Inevitable. He is preparing for it, for this conflict.
Expected
#Turkey #Russia #Erdogan
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

I am sure that sooner or later, some sort of Prigozhin analogue will emerge in the Russian army, I have almost no doubt about it.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

What future awaits Akim Apachev? I think it's quite an unseemly one. We've seen what happened to Strelkov.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Kamikadze D

Turkey, together with Israel, using these rebels, threw Assad and his Russian lackeys to hell. Hmeimim and Tartus will never be Russian again.
Expected
#Syria #Russia #Turkey #Israel
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

France was one of the most friendly Western powers toward Russia as a whole, as a phenomenon. Now, in the French political class, sentiments are at their strongest that Russia is a long-term strategic threat. These sentiments will outlast Emmanuel Macron, who has two years left to lead France. They will 100% outlast him.
Expected
#France #Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

This cannot go on for long. After a while, it will become obvious that peace is impossible. That Trump has only provoked Putin, making him more brazen and less willing to negotiate. Somehow, this bubble will burst. I fear it will happen in an unpleasant and rather loud manner.
Expected
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Evgeniy Stupin

It is clear that Trump is making many concessions. But his patience is not limitless. And, naturally, at some point, he will get tired of Putin leading him by the nose. He understands all of this perfectly. And I think the turnaround will be impressive. We will see, first of all, the reintroduction of sanctions, secondly, an increase in arms supplies to Ukraine, and much more.
Expected
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Alexander Nevzorov

Even if Trump's efforts produce some results, this is not the end of the war, it's not the curtain, it's an intermission, and a second act is inevitable. Talking about a potential truce between Ukraine and Russia.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump
ru → en

Nikolai Feldman

I am quite sure that this will not happen. In response to his own question: "Do you believe there will be peace in the near future?" (Talking about the war in Ukraine)
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Nikita Krichevsky

It's interesting: Moshkovich has begun a new life as a prisoner, and apparently for a long time.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Andrey Illarionov

Will Trump change his position? No... We will see how he puts pressure on Turkey to open the straits as a gesture of goodwill. We will see this happen. The straits that Turkey closed at the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Expected
#Trump #Turkey #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

I am 100% sure that the status of Crimea will not be recognized as Russian territory by either the United States or the UN.
Expected
#Ukraine #USA #Russia #UN
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

It is clear that the negotiations will lead nowhere. Putin will demand the five regions that Witkoff is already offering him. They will end. New approaches will be needed. Trump will most likely step away from this topic, losing interest in it. This is where China will step onto the stage with much stronger leverage.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #China #Trump
ru → en

Sergey Parkhomenko

It seems to me that we are in a situation where there is a very high risk that if Trump realizes that there is no immediate result and he is not achieving some sort of instant success, he will simply drop this matter, he will simply stop dealing with it. Speaking about organizing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA
ru → en

Timofey Ermakov

I think, or at least it seems to me, that we will be fighting for another couple of years with such circumstances. Because what is being presented to us as the conditions we are supposed to agree to, I think, is unacceptable. Speaking about Russia.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

It seems to me that judging by the pace, the attack on Kupyansk and the fighting for it are more likely to happen in the summer of this year, maybe even in the fall, something like that. Things are moving pretty slowly there.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

Putin is stronger than he was 4 years ago. This is a reality that must be acknowledged. And the scenarios that seemed realistic back then are not realistic at all today. Therefore, I don’t believe in the “snuffbox scenario” at all. The “snuffbox” refers to the fate of Russian Emperor Paul I, who was killed by conspirators using a snuffbox.
Expected
#Putin #Russia
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

The entire security theater that was established in Russia, both for the start of the war and for combating the Chinese coronavirus, failed to protect Muscovites from becoming victims of a terrorist attack organized by the Islamic State. Unfortunately, my prediction is that as the situation in the Middle East continues to destabilize, the number of such terrorist attacks on Russian territory will increase. God forbid this happens. My pessimistic forecast is that it will happen because no effective tools for combating Islamic terrorism have been established in Russia.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en