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#Turkey

Authors
41
Predictions
56
Verified
34
Came true
82%
Complex
24%
Confident
47%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Stanislav Belkovsky

Erdogan is clearly working on the problem of staying in power forever. How he plans to do this legally is already clear. He said so yesterday. He stated that Turkey urgently needs a new constitution. This means that a new constitution will be adopted within the next two years, and there will be a “reset” — allowing him to run for office again in 2028. The term “reset” was widely used in Russia as a mechanism for constitutional change that allowed Putin to remain president starting in 2024 due to the implementation of the revised constitution.
Expected
#Turkey #Erdogan #Elections
ru → en

Yevgeny Satanovsky

I don’t believe for a second in the preservation of the Tartus and Khmeimim bases, for the simple reason that Erdogan — why would he need them? So that we could also control the Black Sea straits from the south? Moreover, why would the Americans need them — or Trump, for that matter? Speaking about the Russian military bases in Syria.
Expected
#Russia #Syria #Turkey
ru → en

Win/Win

Zelensky failed to disrupt the negotiations by citing the "wrong" composition of the Russian delegation. Zelensky is soon flying to Istanbul, where his negotiators have already been located. In addition, an extra Ukrainian delegation is flying to Turkey, consisting of deputy foreign ministers, deputy defense ministers, SBU representatives, and members of the Presidential Office. This delegation is expected to hold the main meeting with the Russian counterparts.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Turkey #Zelensky
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

Right now, the Russians have gone to the Dolmabahçe Palace in Istanbul. The Ukrainians said they would arrive in Istanbul late. Why was this said? To take a pause and decide on a new delegation lineup. I think tomorrow it won’t be Rustem Umerov anymore, but someone of a lower level from the Ukrainian side.
Did not come true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Turkey
ru → en

Savik Shuster

To be honest, I don’t expect Putin to show up. It would be a very positive sign if he did — it would mean that Russia is seeking a ceasefire. In Istanbul on May 15 for negotiations with Zelensky.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Turkey
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

I'd give it a 1. Not zero. It's not zero probability. In response to the question: "Could Putin come? On a scale from 1 to 10, what number would you assign to the likelihood of Putin coming?" (To Istanbul on May 15 for negotiations with Zelensky)
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Turkey
ru → en

Roman Kostenko

To be honest, I find it hard to believe that Putin will come, because I don’t see it happening — and I think he’s afraid of direct negotiations, especially on neutral ground, where there will be no propaganda, no support, and he’ll have to sit at the same table with Zelensky. I think Putin is afraid, so I doubt he’ll come. In response to the question: "What’s your prediction? Will Putin come?" (To Istanbul on May 15 for talks with Zelensky)
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Zelensky #Turkey
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Putin responded during the night with his proposal for a meeting on May 15 in Istanbul. We've seen Zelensky's response... Will Putin agree or not? My personal opinion is that, of course, he won’t come, and of course, nothing will happen. Putin will not come to Istanbul on May 15 for negotiations with Zelensky.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Zelensky #Turkey
ru → en

Ekaterina Kotrikadze

It seems to me that he is considering taking this risky step — the step of signing a truce with Ukraine. I don’t know whether he will go to Istanbul or not; I admit that he might. Of course, I agree that there’s a 99.9% chance he won’t go, but still, I allow for the possibility that it could happen. 99.9% chance that Putin will not go to the negotiations with Zelensky in Istanbul on May 15.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Turkey
ru → en

Alexander Gabuev

In my view, it is impossible to reach any kind of agreement right now. No matter what level the delegations are represented at—even if Putin himself comes, which I highly doubt—Putin has been saying from the very beginning that the Ukrainian president is illegitimate. (Putin will not attend the negotiations in Istanbul.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Zelensky #Turkey
ru → en

Bogdan Bakaleyko

I don’t believe he’ll come. In response to the question: "In short, I think Putin will have to come up with something more impressive. And what can he do except act tough and show up in Istanbul on Thursday? What do you think will happen?"
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Turkey
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

When will the Russian delegation arrive in Istanbul? I don’t know who will be there. It’s unlikely that Putin will respond to such an invitation from Zelensky — “I’ll be waiting for Putin in Turkey on Thursday in person”. Knowing the character of our Petersburg comrades, they’ll react to this with a smirk and won’t go in response to such an invitation. At most, they’ll say: “Send Arahamia, and we’ll send Vladimir Rostislavovich Medinsky”
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Putin #Turkey
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

I doubt that Ukraine will agree to such terms (Putin calls it negotiations without any conditions. A clever formulation). Overall, it seems like nothing has really happened, but I’d be glad to be wrong. I just wish the war would end soon. On Putin’s proposal to resume negotiations in Istanbul.
Did not come true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Turkey
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

I believe that a war between Turkey and Israel is only a matter of time. Within 2–3 years, armed clashes will begin. I am, of course, against this war.
Expected
#Turkey #Israel
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

Erdoğan is putting up fierce resistance, and most likely he has enough force at his disposal. To suppress the protests.
Expected
#Turkey #Erdogan
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Turkey. 1. There are mass protest rallies across the country. In Istanbul, the opposition counted 2 million people at the rally. 2. But the opposition will achieve nothing. Peaceful protests won’t force the government to back down. 3. And if the opposition resorts to violence, Erdoğan will crush them.
Expected
#Turkey
ru → en

Vyacheslav Maltsev

Erdogan is reasoning quite correctly. He understands that a future conflict between Turkey and Russia is inevitable. Inevitable. He is preparing for it, for this conflict.
Expected
#Turkey #Russia #Erdogan
ru → en

Kamikadze D

Turkey, together with Israel, using these rebels, threw Assad and his Russian lackeys to hell. Hmeimim and Tartus will never be Russian again.
Expected
#Syria #Russia #Turkey #Israel
ru → en

Andrey Illarionov

Will Trump change his position? No... We will see how he puts pressure on Turkey to open the straits as a gesture of goodwill. We will see this happen. The straits that Turkey closed at the beginning of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Expected
#Trump #Turkey #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Darya Mitina

Imagine that Putin arrested Sobyanin, several million people took to the streets all over Russia, and Alexander Beglov called for the President’s resignation and early elections. Can you picture that? That's exactly what's happening in Turkey right now. My prediction is that Erdogan will manage to get through this time as well, but only through repressive forceful means. He either lacks the political resources to contain the crisis or is unwilling to use them.
Expected
#Turkey #Erdogan
ru → en

Mark Feygin

No, they definitely won’t go for it. In response to the remark: "Turkey’s leader Erdoğan is trying to take advantage of the moment, saying that the EU cannot solve security problems without him, so Turkey must urgently be admitted to the European Union. I hope the EU won’t take such a risky step."
Expected
#Turkey #European Union
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

If there is no Turkish-American deal regarding the Syrian Kurds, there will be no serious large-scale military operation by Turkey against the Kurds.
Expected
#Turkey #Syria #Kurds
ru → en

Nikita Tomilin

Forecast for the next 4-5 years: a war with Turkey. Presumably referring to a war between Russia and Turkey.
Expected
#Russia #Turkey
ru → en

Tigran Khzmalyan

Turkey will never become a member of Europe, at least not in our lifetime... not a part of the European Union, nor of Europe itself.
Expected
#Turkey #European Union
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Russia will never join the Turkic Union, in which Turkey is the main player. The answer to the question: 'Can Russia join the Turkic Union in the near future?'
Expected
#Russia #Turkey
ru → en

Ruslan Suleymanov

I think that some sort of normalization should eventually take place. If common sense prevails, early elections will likely be announced — if not this year, then next year, or perhaps even in 2027. In response to the question: "In your view, what are the most acceptable and most positive scenarios for developments both within Turkey and around its borders?"
Expected
#Turkey
ru → en

Leonid Volkov

Erdogan is trading on the domestic market, saying that we will soon be accepted into the European Union, and we will live well. Although he understands perfectly well that this will not happen. Turkey will not be accepted into the European Union.
Expected
#Turkey #European Union #Erdogan
ru → en

Michael Nacke

Everything will be fine there. They will join. They will all come to an agreement. Sweden will join NATO.
Completely came true
#NATO #Sweden #Turkey
ru → en

Dmitry Oreshkin

After the elections, Sweden will join NATO. After the presidential elections in Turkey in the summer of 2023.
Completely came true
#Sweden #NATO #Turkey
ru → en

Mikhail Krutikhin

No one will be dealing with this. Europe will not invest in the construction of a gas hub on Turkish territory.
Expected
#Gas #Turkey #Europe
ru → en

Ramis Yunus

Turkey, even more so, does not intend to intervene. In the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Completely came true
#Turkey #Azerbaijan #Armenia
ru → en

Ramis Yunus

This will never happen. That Turkey will be expelled from NATO
Expected
#Turkey #NATO
ru → en