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Predictions and promises monitor

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Andrey Piontkovsky

Political expert, mathematician (Russia)

Predictions
50
Verified
34
Came true
50%
Complex
74%
Confident
74%
Rating
5.01
All Expected Expected soon New results

Andrey Piontkovsky

One accurate prediction can be made: Trump's ceasefire proposal will not work in 24 hours, 100 days, or 3 months. Because Putin has already clearly stated what he wants. He wants conditions that severely limit Ukraine’s sovereignty, restrict its ability to make independent decisions in foreign and defense policy, and give him the opportunity at any moment, within a few months, to repeat his aggression under the pretext of Russia’s security guarantees.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Putin #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

I assure you, the crazy Tulsi Gabbard won’t make it through the nomination either.
Did not come true
#USA
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

Military actions will not stop within three months, because all these scenarios we’re running through in our heads will also be running through the minds of decision-makers in Washington, Moscow, and Kyiv. Since there are still no solutions that satisfy everyone, I can firmly say that a freeze is not in store for us in the next three months.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

A very positive effect on the whole Ukraine issue will, of course, come from Israel's victory on the Middle Eastern front, which is also likely to happen within these next three months.
Partially came true
#Israel #Middle East #Gaza #Lebanon #Iran
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

One Israeli strike on Iran will follow within a few days, I believe, to ensure everything is prepared. It will lead to a tectonic shift in the Middle East.
Did not come true
#Israel #Iran #Middle East
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

A week for the attempt to free the hostages. Two weeks for the complete elimination of Hamas. And the fourth week – well, to address the issue with the sponsors... a month. Regarding the timeline of Israel's war against Hamas.
Did not come true
#Israel-Hamas war #Israel #Hamas
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

No, it won't survive. Answer to the question: "Will the Putin regime last until then?" (until July 1, 2023)
Did not come true
#Putin #Russia
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

I am sure that there will be no parade on May 9. In Moscow.
Did not come true
#Russia
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

He will not be arrested. He may be taken in handcuffs to the judge and placed under house arrest. About Donald Trump in the near future.
Completely came true
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

My prediction is that we will receive this in January. The U.S. or the British will provide Ukraine with tanks or long-range missiles in January 2023.
Almost came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

We know that Prigozhin is a scoundrel, a criminal, a war criminal, and will be executed. Evgeniy Prigozhin will be executed.
Completely came true
#Russia
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

We all understand that Yashin will not serve 8 and a half years.
Completely came true
#Russia
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

We will see him... Lugovoy is a member of the State Duma... and But will follow the same path. Viktor Bout will become a member of the State Duma of the Russian Federation.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

Both Skabeeva and Simonyansha will definitely be sent, if not to The Hague, then to Mariupol. Russian TV hosts Olga Skabeeva and Margarita Simonyan will be tried.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

Removal after the liberation of Kherson. The removal of Putin from power... they will remove him with the wording: "Comrade Putin is ill, he cannot fulfill his duties, and he is transferring his responsibilities to the collective body of the Security Council"
Did not come true
#Putin #Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

These stupid restrictions... so that they don't strike Russian territory with their long-range missiles... I am sure that all restrictions will be lifted. Restrictions for Ukraine.
Expected
#Ukraine #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

The CSTO certainly won't lift a finger. Regarding the military conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia in September 2022.
Completely came true
#CSTO #Armenia #Azerbaijan
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

Israel will not allow this; it will eliminate this nuclear threat. But that's not even the worst thing that will happen to Iran. Israel will not allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons.
Expected
#Iran #Israel #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

Well, either in the last days of October 2022 or in the summer of 2023. Answer to the question: "When will the war between Russia and Ukraine end?"
Did not come true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

I think that a preliminary step towards an offensive on Kherson will be a strike on the Crimean Bridge. Ukraine will first strike the Crimean Bridge and then begin the de-occupation of the Kherson region.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

Ukraine will never agree to this. To capitulation due to pressure from partners over the threat of the destruction of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

As for the missiles with a range of 300... they will be transferred in the near future regardless. About the supply of long-range missiles to Ukraine by the Americans.
Did not come true
#War in Ukraine #USA #Ukraine
ru → en