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Predictions and promises monitor

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Andrey Piontkovsky

Political expert, mathematician (Russia)

Predictions
61
Verified
38
Came true
50%
Complex
76%
Confident
74%
Rating
5.08
All Expected Expected soon New results

Andrey Piontkovsky

I can say with confidence that in the coming days, Erdogan and Aliyev will make a statement expressing concern for the safety of the 30 million Azerbaijani population in this chaotic situation.
Did not come true June 30, 2025
#Iran
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

Israel is counting on a long timeframe — up to two weeks. Of course, in one form or another, either the physical elimination of these ayatollahs or something else. I believe the regime in Iran will change within those two weeks.
Did not come true June 29, 2025
#Iran
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

The proposal to cease fire will be rejected. This false narrative about continuing negotiations will be put forward. Russia will reject the ceasefire proposal in Istanbul.
Completely came true May 20, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Turkey
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

One accurate prediction can be made: Trump's ceasefire proposal will not work in 24 hours, 100 days, or 3 months. Because Putin has already clearly stated what he wants. He wants conditions that severely limit Ukraine’s sovereignty, restrict its ability to make independent decisions in foreign and defense policy, and give him the opportunity at any moment, within a few months, to repeat his aggression under the pretext of Russia’s security guarantees.
Completely came true May 10, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Putin #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

In early February, Trump will be forced to acknowledge that he does not, and cannot, have a peace plan for a freeze supported by both Ukraine and Russia. This is already evident.
Partially came true February 25, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

I assure you, the crazy Tulsi Gabbard won’t make it through the nomination either.
Did not come true February 12, 2025
#USA
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

Military actions will not stop within three months, because all these scenarios we’re running through in our heads will also be running through the minds of decision-makers in Washington, Moscow, and Kyiv. Since there are still no solutions that satisfy everyone, I can firmly say that a freeze is not in store for us in the next three months.
Completely came true February 12, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

A very positive effect on the whole Ukraine issue will, of course, come from Israel's victory on the Middle Eastern front, which is also likely to happen within these next three months.
Partially came true February 8, 2025
#Israel #Middle East #Gaza #Lebanon #Iran
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

One Israeli strike on Iran will follow within a few days, I believe, to ensure everything is prepared. It will lead to a tectonic shift in the Middle East.
Did not come true January 21, 2025
#Israel #Iran #Middle East
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

We all understand that Yashin will not serve 8 and a half years.
Completely came true August 1, 2024
#Russia
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

The CSTO certainly won't lift a finger. Regarding the military conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia in September 2022.
Completely came true August 1, 2024
#CSTO #Armenia #Azerbaijan
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

Removal after the liberation of Kherson. The removal of Putin from power... they will remove him with the wording: "Comrade Putin is ill, he cannot fulfill his duties, and he is transferring his responsibilities to the collective body of the Security Council"
Did not come true July 31, 2024
#Putin #Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

No, it won't survive. Answer to the question: "Will the Putin regime last until then?" (until July 1, 2023)
Did not come true July 1, 2024
#Putin #Russia
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

A week for the attempt to free the hostages. Two weeks for the complete elimination of Hamas. And the fourth week – well, to address the issue with the sponsors... a month. Regarding the timeline of Israel's war against Hamas.
Did not come true June 30, 2024
#Israel-Hamas war #Israel #Hamas
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

Well, either in the last days of October 2022 or in the summer of 2023. Answer to the question: "When will the war between Russia and Ukraine end?"
Did not come true October 1, 2023
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

We know that Prigozhin is a scoundrel, a criminal, a war criminal, and will be executed. Evgeniy Prigozhin will be executed.
Completely came true August 23, 2023
#Russia
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

He will not be arrested. He may be taken in handcuffs to the judge and placed under house arrest. About Donald Trump in the near future.
Completely came true June 20, 2023
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

I am sure that there will be no parade on May 9. In Moscow.
Did not come true May 9, 2023
#Russia
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

My prediction is that we will receive this in January. The U.S. or the British will provide Ukraine with tanks or long-range missiles in January 2023.
Almost came true January 31, 2023
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

The Crimean Bridge is being destroyed, Kherson is being liberated. After that, of course, Putin will be removed from power.
Did not come true December 31, 2022
#Putin #Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

As for the missiles with a range of 300... they will be transferred in the near future regardless. About the supply of long-range missiles to Ukraine by the Americans.
Did not come true December 31, 2022
#War in Ukraine #USA #Ukraine
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

The capture of Kherson... this is the end of the war, this is victory, this is the collapse of the front and the entire Putin system. If Ukraine deoccupies Kherson.
Did not come true December 31, 2022
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Putin
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

I think that a preliminary step towards an offensive on Kherson will be a strike on the Crimean Bridge. Ukraine will first strike the Crimean Bridge and then begin the de-occupation of the Kherson region.
Completely came true November 10, 2022
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en