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Predictions and promises monitor

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#China

Authors
45
Predictions
67
Verified
14
Came true
64%
Complex
21%
Confident
29%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Vyacheslav Maltsev

A war between the U.S. and Iran would benefit China the most... And if it happens — mark my words — a nuclear strike on the U.S. will be inevitable; it will definitely happen. And it doesn’t really matter who launches it — it could be Russia, or someone else. China will try to pull everyone into the war.
Expected
#USA #Iran #China
ru → en

Vladimir Surdin

American scientists even came up with a project: to use a large meteorite crater as a radio telescope dish by covering it with wires — essentially creating a reflective surface and turning it into a natural radio telescope. This would require such enormous costs and effort that, for now, the project is considered something for the distant future. But Chinese astronomers have decided to do it now — within the next 7 to 10 years. They’re talking about five years. I looked at the scale of the project and realized that it’s unlikely to be completed in less than 10 years.
Expected
#Space #Science and technology #China
ru → en

Bogdan Bakaleyko

Regarding China — and still, if they go for it (though it's hard for me to believe), if they take that step and make their yuan a bit or significantly stronger and higher.
Expected
#Yuan #China
ru → en

Win/Win

What does Trump want from China, raising tariffs on it every day? He’ll lower them eventually anyway.
Expected
#Trump #USA #China #Economy
ru → en

Leonid Ivashov

They won’t go to war with Taiwan just to gain control over the chip industry and so on. They’ll resolve this issue peacefully. Even though they’re lagging behind in silicon-based technologies, they won’t start a war over Taiwan. Chinese wisdom is still present there. Ours has vanished into eternity, but theirs — the Confucian approach — is still alive in China. That’s why I don’t believe China will go to war.
Expected
#China #Taiwan
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

If this expulsion of China from the classroom by teacher Trump leads to increased trade between the U.S. and Russia, then trade turnover between Russia and the U.S. should skyrocket. But I think you understand that this won’t happen. Right now, China sells — or used to sell before the introduction of those 125% tariffs — iPhones to the U.S. So what now? Is China supposed to sell iPhones to Russia, and Russia to the U.S.? That’s absurd. It’s not going to happen.
Expected
#Russia #China #USA #Economy
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

To maintain competitiveness, China will definitely go for a devaluation of the yuan. I’ll bet a bottle of vodka on it.
Expected
#China #Yuan #Economy
ru → en

Valery Solovei

The Americans know that Taiwan won’t resist... Chinese won’t resist other Chinese.
Expected
#Taiwan #China
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

It is clear that the negotiations will lead nowhere. Putin will demand the five regions that Witkoff is already offering him. They will end. New approaches will be needed. Trump will most likely step away from this topic, losing interest in it. This is where China will step onto the stage with much stronger leverage.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #China #Trump
ru → en

Vladimir Surdin

Since no one has reached the finish line yet, it's hard to say who's ahead. But judging by the pace, it's the Americans. However, the Chinese are catching up very actively. But I don’t think they’ll make it. The Americans will land on the Moon again. They have a huge head start. They have two large rockets. And now there’s also Elon Musk and Bezos.
Expected
#Space #Science and technology #USA #China
ru → en

Oleksiy Arestovych

Remember this tweet. It contains the rules and outlines of the new world. Everything stated below has already been decided and will be announced soon. A Ukraine Reconstruction Fund will be established, with the U.S., Russia, and China as its shareholders. The initial capital will consist of $40 billion from the U.S., $40 billion from Russia, and $20 billion from China. Later, this Fund will absorb $350 billion from Russia (frozen assets), while the U.S. considers that it has already contributed $350 billion (this is the exact figure Trump mentioned). But that’s not all. Over time, the U.S. will contribute another $350 billion, China—around $200 billion, along with additional contributions from the royal dynasties of the Persian Gulf. The total size of the Fund is expected to reach $1 trillion.
Expected
#Ukraine #USA #Russia #China #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

If the Americans step in for Taiwan and defend it as they have promised, it could result in a devastating military defeat for China—literally a catastrophe—that would completely shut down the idea of bringing Taiwan back into China’s fold. Completely. Therefore, in theory, they should not decide on such an action in the near future.
Expected
#Taiwan #China #USA
ru → en

Dmitry Gordon

The Chinese are hardworking, persistent, and diligent, and they have started settling in. In many cities in Siberia and the Far East, there are already Chinese mayors. The Chinese have begun marrying Russian women... In another 20-50 years, these regions will go to China without any war, without anything. This is the essence of great Chinese wisdom.
Expected
#Russia #China
ru → en

Oleksiy Arestovych

I think within a short period, two to three months, sorry, no less, preparations will be made for a meeting. There will be a meeting between Xi Jinping, Putin, and Trump, where they will divide the world.
Expected
#Trump #Xi Jinping #Putin #USA #China #Russia
ru → en

Vyacheslav Maltsev

I’m willing to bet that this won’t happen. It absolutely won’t. This is a card that China always plays, especially frequently in recent times. In response to the question: "What do you think is the likelihood that China will follow through on its intentions and try to seize Taiwan by force?"
Expected
#Taiwan #China
ru → en

Leonid Volkov

Either something about tariffs, possibly on imports from China, or something related to crypto. In response to the question: "What will Trump’s first executive order be after the inauguration?"
Did not come true
#Trump #USA #China #Cryptocurrencies
ru → en

Yulia Latynina

Erdogan is much smarter and more farsighted than Putin. My assumption is that Erdogan’s operation in Syria will be far more successful than Putin’s operation in Ukraine. In reality, no one will be able to stop it. And most likely, Xi Jinping will follow Erdogan’s lead.
Expected
#China #Taiwan #Xi Jinping
ru → en

Sergei Markov

The elite world is shaken by the death sentence given to the head of China’s main bank, the Bank of China, for bribery. All the heads of banks around the world are trembling at this news because they know they too could be sentenced for the same reason. And so could finance ministers. But don’t worry! Officially, it’s for bribery, but in reality, it’s because he was too friendly with America. And in two years, the death sentence will quietly be commuted to life imprisonment. In the meantime, he’ll be giving testimony against others in the Chinese elite who are eager to be too friendly with America.
Expected
#China
ru → en

Alexander Pantsov

If the Chinese Communist Party loses power, China will immediately collapse. First, Tibet will declare independence. Next in line, Xinjiang will announce its independence.
Expected
#China
ru → en

Sergey Aslanyan

Russia is now a country of Chinese cars. The wave of Chinese will instantly recede as soon as the country wises up, stops waging war, and immediately regains the chance to lift the curtain and move toward Europe rather than Asia. The Chinese will disappear in that same moment. By "Chinese," he is referring to Chinese-made cars.
Expected
#Russia #China
ru → en

Vyacheslav Maltsev

China wants to land on the Moon by 2030 and start developing it, as we discussed before. They’ll be extracting resources from the Moon and everything else. And you’ll see—this will be 100% certain.
Expected
#China #Space #Science and technology
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

All these dreams and fantasies about turning BRICS into a military-political alliance... I can try to be absolutely categorical. I believe this idea will never materialize. I just can't imagine a military-political alliance between, say, India and China; the contradictions between them are simply too strong.
Expected
#BRICS #India #China
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

Well, it’s definitely moving in that direction. China is undoubtedly trying to do it. But in the end, it won't succeed. In response to the question: "China wants to build a new bipolar world. Will the Chinese leader be able to achieve this?"
Expected
#China
ru → en

Mark Feygin

China plans to take over Taiwan by any means necessary, including military action, if the situation is safe for them—meaning if it can be done without consequences, such as no interference from the United States. Under what circumstances would that be possible? It's quite obvious: if Ukraine loses, if the West abandons it. If the West gives up on Ukraine and it loses the war, China will take over Taiwan.
Expected
#Taiwan #China #Ukraine #USA
ru → en

Aleksandr Morozov

I think that right now China will not take any radical steps regarding Taiwan... So, I believe there won’t be a direct, severe escalation that would require U.S. intervention anytime soon.
Expected
#China #Taiwan
ru → en

Dmitry Gudkov

Putin understands perfectly that the use of nuclear weapons is something that China will never support. This means that then Russia and the Kremlin will find themselves in complete global isolation. Absolute complete isolation.
Expected
#Nuclear weapons #Russia #Putin #China
ru → en

Vladimir Osechkin

The use of nuclear weapons would immediately put him in a category of people with whom neither India nor China would be willing or able to cooperate economically. China is currently keeping Russia afloat economically. Putin and his government are practically crawling to the Chinese on their knees every year.
Expected
#Nuclear weapons #Russia #Putin #War in Ukraine #China #India
ru → en

Vladislav Inozemtsev

15 January 2020, the USA and China signed a large-scale economic reconciliation agreement, which, if implemented, would have restored their relations on a full scale... However, in the context of COVID, the Chinese ceased any attempts to implement it, and the Americans also added to the situation because Trump accused China of allowing the infection to spread... If this agreement had been restored, say, with Trump's return and improvements in his relations with Chairman Xi, perhaps history would have taken a different path. But, in my view, this now seems unlikely.
Expected
#USA #China
ru → en

Dmitry Demushkin

Trump is the main advocate for fighting with China and bringing all production back to the U.S. But if the Democrats come to power, I think China's policy will very much return to a calm course of agreements on key issues with the Americans. I don't believe they will initiate any large-scale trade wars with the Democrats.
Expected
#USA #China
ru → en

Dmitry Demushkin

Yes, there is a painful question regarding Taiwan. Well, China has clearly seen that now is not the time to address these issues, at least not through military means. And after the example of Russia, it definitely will not go down that path. I believe it will achieve all its goals anyway. I am absolutely convinced of this. The Chinese know how to be patient. They will take Taiwan, they will take everything they need. Just not right away.
Expected
#Taiwan #China
ru → en

Malek Dudakov

The likelihood of a hot conflict, in my opinion, is not very high. Although there is a lot of hysteria coming from the West, claiming that war is just around the corner. But I believe that this is not in the interests of either the USA or China. Considering that a lot depends on Taiwan, which accounts for 60 percent of the global semiconductor market.
Expected
#Taiwan #China #USA
ru → en

Stepan Demura

Moreover, the Chinese may provoke something in Taiwan. Most likely, they will. For example, a blockade of the island. Since the forces of the U.S. Navy and Army are far from unlimited.
Expected
#Taiwan #China #USA
ru → en

Peter Zeihan

Regardless of who wins American presidential election, regardless of who wins in various European elections, both the American and European block have turned very sharply protectionist specifically versus China. So we're probably going to see significant crunches in the trade portfolio of products coming from China very very soon. What we've seen with the electric vehicles is really only the beginning.
Expected
#European Union #USA #China #Economy
en

Igor Eidman

I think that Xi Jinping is the last dictator of this kind. Apparently, in China.
Expected
#China
ru → en

John Mearsheimer

No, I don't think that Xi Jinping is going to attack Taiwan anytime soon. And there are a variety of reasons for that. One of the main reasons is that for him or for China to attack Taiwan it has to cross a large body of water. And amphibious operations are among the most difficult military operations you can ask an army to perform. It is very difficult to cross a body of water as large as the Taiwan straight. Answer to the question: "Do you think that Xi Jinping is going to attack Taiwan in this decade?"
Expected
#Taiwan #China
en

Uebermarginal

I highly doubt that he will sever ties with Brazil and China. Javier Milei will not sever trade relations with Brazil and China.
Expected
#Argentina #Brazil #China
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

No free trade with the thesis that Argentina will now cut trade relations with Brazil and China... I don't think he will implement any of this. Javier Milei will not sever trade relations with Brazil and China.
Expected
#Argentina #Brazil #China
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

There were some strange hopes among people that China would develop production on the territory of Russia. I immediately said that this is complete nonsense. The Chinese will never build anything on Russian territory. They will sell their cars, but they will not build their own car factories... and there is no need to build anything in Russia. It's too much trouble.
Expected
#Russia #China #Economy #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Grigory Tamar

Well, first of all, Taiwan is not so easy to take. Taiwan has a quite sizable army, and it is far from helpless... therefore, I think that the Chinese will not resort to a forceful solution to the issue.
Expected
#Taiwan #China
ru → en

Leonid Volkov

No, I don't think so. Answer to the question: "Will China attack Russia after the war?" (War in Ukraine)
Expected
#Russia #China
ru → en

Gleb Pyanykh

I don't believe that Xi Jinping will come to Putin. I am sure that this is all some kind of Kremlin's sophisticated propaganda.
Did not come true
#Xi Jinping #Putin #Russia #China
ru → en

Gleb Pyanykh

China will not seize Taiwan. China will not get involved in a story like Putin
Expected
#China #Taiwan
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

I am far from thinking that China will use military force in attempts to seize Taiwan
Expected
#Taiwan #China
ru → en

Abbas Gallyamov

We need to wait for the results of the current Chinese congress. Xi Jinping must secure his position and be reappointed for another term... most likely, he will manage to accomplish this task.
Completely came true
#China
ru → en

Oleg Zhdanov

I think he will now remain in this position for the rest of his life. Xi Jinping
Expected
#Xi Jinping #China
ru → en

Sergey Guriyev

Next week, Xi Jinping will most likely be elected for another term.
Completely came true
#China
ru → en

Ramis Yunus

No, I don't think so; it would be foolish for the Chinese to take by force what they can achieve through peaceful means. Referring to the fact that there will be no military conflict between China and Taiwan.
Expected
#Taiwan #China
ru → en

Mark Feygin

They will meet at the G20 summit, Xi Jinping and Biden. I suspect that this will most likely end with mutual visits, first Xi Jinping to Washington, and then Biden to Beijing. This is my prediction, and I do not insist on it
Did not come true
#USA #China #G20
ru → en

Ivan Stupak

Right now, this will not happen... I don't see it in the next year or two. Response to the question: 'Will there be a war between China and the USA, China and Taiwan?'
Completely came true
#China #USA #Taiwan
ru → en

Leonid Shvets

With a high probability, he will be re-elected. Regarding Xi Jinping's re-election for a third term in November 2022.
Completely came true
#China
ru → en