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Predictions and promises monitor

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Valery Solovei

Political scientist (Russia)

Predictions
48
Verified
21
Came true
38%
Complex
76%
Confident
67%
Rating
4.29
All Expected Expected soon New results

Valery Solovei

I think, and I’m even confident, that we will reach a ceasefire and then a peace agreement. I believe this will happen next year. I know that very intense consultations are currently taking place between the Russian and American sides. I assume between the American and Ukrainian sides as well. In response to the question: "What changes can we expect in military and diplomatic updates during 2025?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Valery Solovei

To release people from prisons, to carry out a political amnesty, a broad release—this is absolutely necessary, and it will be done next year. As far as I know, it will happen. However, the opposition has nothing to do with it; it will be done by those currently in power, for their own reasons.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Valery Solovei

It’s not about Ukraine, the DPR and LPR, or Crimea; it’s about lifting sanctions. Otherwise, the Russian economy will collapse—I emphasize, it will collapse, contrary to what many experts claim. And the Russian leadership knows perfectly well that it will collapse next year. Therefore, they must ensure that sanctions are lifted or eased. To achieve this, they need a peace agreement or a truce with Ukraine that both the West and Ukraine would find acceptable enough to lift sanctions. If sanctions are not lifted, the Russian economy will collapse in 2025.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Valery Solovei

Neither 5 weeks, nor 5 months, nor 5 years will allow Ukraine to create nuclear weapons. This is not only due to political restrictions but also because of technical challenges... It is impossible to imagine a scenario where the West would support the development of a Ukrainian atomic bomb.
Expected
#Ukraine #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Valery Solovei

And when they return, their weight, influence, and ability to affect the situation will become clear... I think they will be able to return next year, maybe even before summer. An opportunity will open up for them. Will they want to return? It will still be risky. About certain leaders of the Russian political opposition currently abroad.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Valery Solovei

Apparently, the personnel disposition will change very significantly by the end of this year. I think by about 75-80%, referring to the composition of the government, including ministers and the Prime Minister.
Did not come true
#Russia
ru → en

Valery Solovei

And who will become the new president of Russia? The new president is expected to emerge in the spring of next year. Early elections will be held.
Expected
#Russia #Elections
ru → en

Valery Solovei

The new prime minister is expected to be appointed before the New Year, to be precise, by December 15th.
Did not come true
#Russia
ru → en

Valery Solovei

Resources for conducting intensive military operations will be exhausted by the spring of next year, in any case. In any case. This means that it will no longer be able to conduct military operations at the intensity with which the Russian Federation is currently operating
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Valery Solovei

I don't think so. I don't see any prerequisites for a war in the Middle East. The answer to the question: "Will there be a major war in the Middle East?"
Expected
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Valery Solovei

Dmitry Patrushev will become the Prime Minister.
Did not come true
#Russia
ru → en

Valery Solovei

From my point of view, the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation will not be resolved on the battlefield. It will be resolved in Russia, as a result of a political crisis in the Russian Federation and the coming to power of new people. It will be resolved, not because Ukraine will achieve success
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine #Ukraine
ru → en

Valery Solovei

Yes, they did nothing to him. We will see Yevgeny Viktorovich in Moscow next year. They did nothing to him. He is alive, healthy, and free." About Prigozhin.
Did not come true
#Russia
ru → en

Valery Solovei

But they will appear. I want to assure you... evidence will be presented. Irrefutable evidence that the Russian president has passed away. That Putin died in October 2023.
Expected
#Putin #Russia
ru → en

Valery Solovei

I do not believe at all that this confrontation will drag on for that long. Commenting on the host's words about the possible prolongation of the war in Ukraine for 6-7 years.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Valery Solovei

I can tell you that the negotiations will begin in the fall. A preliminary decision has already been made by both sides regarding the negotiations. Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
Did not come true
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Valery Solovei

I don't think he will become a victim of the regime About Igor Strelkov
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Valery Solovei

It exists and exists. It will soon fall apart. CSTO
Expected
#CSTO
ru → en

Valery Solovei

When the turmoil leads to some political upheavals, then Alexei will be released... maybe next year... if not, then in about a year and a half. About Alexei Navalny.
Cannot be verified
#Russia
ru → en

Valery Solovei

I believe that it will be possible to avoid it. The Third World War.
Expected
ru → en

Valery Solovei

There will be conferences on the arrangement of the world after all this is over. A new security system in Europe will be developed, possibly without Russia or with Russia's weak involvement. There will be a new world order. After the end of the war in Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Europe
ru → en

Valery Solovei

Yashin will be free after Putin leaves power.
Did not come true
#Russia
ru → en

Valery Solovei

A tribunal will be established... for some reason, I don't think that the main perpetrators will be there. Believes that the main criminals will not be punished
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Valery Solovei

I believe that such a tribunal will be established. I consider this possibility to be high. Regarding the war crimes of Russia.
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Valery Solovei

This information will undoubtedly be confirmed. It is absolutely reliable. Information about the death of Tumso Abdurakhmanov.
Did not come true
ru → en

Valery Solovei

No, of course not. Why would they imprison him? The answer to the question: "Will Fridman be imprisoned?" (Mikhail Fridman)
Completely came true
#Russia
ru → en

Valery Solovei

A part of the Luhansk region, a part of the Zaporizhzhia region, and a part of the Kherson region will be left. This is practically already predetermined... it will have to be accepted. Russia will partially leave these regions.
Did not come true
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Valery Solovei

Martial law will be extended to a large part of the country, at least to the capitals... this will happen after the New Year. In Russia.
Did not come true
#Russia
ru → en

Valery Solovei

As for a mass protest, no, it is not possible at the moment. There will be local excesses. Response to the question: 'Is a mass protest possible?' (In Russia, apparently in connection with mobilization)
Completely came true
#Russia
ru → en

Valery Solovei

In the coming months, I wouldn't count on anything like that. Response to the comment: 'As soon as Putin loses the presidential seat, he will be killed immediately.'
Completely came true
#Putin #Russia
ru → en

Valery Solovei

I personally have no doubt that these territories will not become part of Russia. About the so-called LPR, DPR, and other occupied territories
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Valery Solovei

Russia will maintain its unity; this is not the Soviet Union... There may be problems in the event of a political crisis... but these problems are unlikely to be serious enough to lead to the disintegration of Russia; from my point of view, this is practically unbelievable
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Valery Solovei

Everyone understands that the future will come. It will be without Putin. It will arrive much sooner than previously thought. Not after 2024, but apparently, not just apparently, but definitely in 2023.
Did not come true
#Russia #Putin
ru → en

Valery Solovei

As for the fate of those fighters who were taken at Azovstal, I think they will be tried... a public trial will be held to prove that Ukraine is permeated with Nazi ideology... as for the others... it is possible that they could be exchanged.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Valery Solovei

In the fall, I expect the beginning of an elite crisis related to the president's inability to continue fulfilling his duties.
Did not come true
#Russia #Putin
ru → en

Valery Solovei

Yes, you are absolutely right. As far as I know, the president of Russia has made this decision; the only thing is that he hasn't set a date... it is necessary to mobilize 500,000 people. About a possible mobilization
Completely came true
#Russia #War in Ukraine #Putin
ru → en

Valery Solovei

And to his inner circle, he said that he is waiting until the end of January. If we do not see significant progress in the negotiations by the end of January... then we will begin a military solution. Almost everything is ready for a military solution. Putin is ready for a military invasion of Ukraine.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Putin
ru → en