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Their production cost is around $38. Anything below $38 and above $5 allows Saudi Arabia to earn well. A figure like $36-35 could be reached. If such a price is established, I think the Russian Federation could last a maximum of 3-4 months. Russia will face serious economic problems if the price of oil falls below $38.
#Oil #Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy

There will be no reduction to 15%, as Aksakov claims, by spring or summer—it definitely won’t happen. This scenario is practically out of the question. Speaking about Russia’s key interest rate in 2025.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

There are no grounds for the ruble to strengthen. Only a trend toward weakening.
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

The stability of the Russian ruble. So, the range of 93-97—I don’t really see the need for it to reach, maybe touch, 98-99, but that’s unlikely. The ruble exchange rate will be 93-97 per dollar until the end of 2024.
#Ruble #Dollar #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

In the long term, of course, the ruble is weakening—there’s no doubt about it.
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

The problem is that, apparently, it’s not only the price of oil that will decrease, but also practically all the commodities Russia sells. Therefore, Russia’s financial outlook is not good.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

This military economy is built like a bubble; it cannot avoid bursting. These are salaries not backed by increased labor productivity. These incomes rest on the fact that there are no people actually working. And these tanks keep rolling on, turning into scrap metal in Donbas, along with the missiles. In this sense, nothing is being produced—no new factories, no new enterprises. The economy isn’t developing; it’s swelling like a bubble. At some point, it will inevitably burst, but how, in what situation, and what that will look like, I don’t know. Talking about Russia's economy.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

That’s a highly unlikely scenario for the rate to be 15% next year. Aliens are more likely to arrive. In response to: "By the start of the second quarter... they might start lowering the rate, maybe even to 15% in 2025. What do you think of that?" (Referring to Russia's key interest rate)
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

150 certainly won’t happen. I think not at any time. In response to the questions: "Will the ruble keep declining, and could we possibly see 150 in the New Year? Over what time period?"
#Ruble #Dollar #Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy

I think it will gradually increase. I don’t know to what levels exactly; it will all depend on how much Putin spends and prints unbacked money. But that the dollar rate will rise is absolutely certain. The ruble-to-dollar exchange rate.
#Ruble #Dollar #Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy

The coming week will be interesting. Let's see how the pseudo-trading sessions open. What will happen with the Ruble, Dollar, and Euro? So far, everything has been in a sideways trend, with the Ruble barely fluctuating. The stock market dropped by 2 percent. I think we will break the September lows of 2,520 points on the MOEX index, meaning we'll hit a new low for the past two years, roughly speaking.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

Their next rate meeting is on December 20, and they stated that they will raise rates again if nothing changes. As you and viewers might guess, over the next two months, it’s hard to imagine what could cause a sudden drop in inflation, especially when everything is spiraling and inflation expectations remain high, with no change in fundamental factors. So, it’s likely they’ll raise the rate again in December. The Central Bank of Russia is expected to increase the key rate once more on December 20, 2024.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

There’s firm confidence that it will be raised. Maybe not right now, but in a year, it’ll likely go up to around 24%, so to speak. Inflation is rising. The key interest rate in Russia will be raised again.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

It’s not about Ukraine, the DPR and LPR, or Crimea; it’s about lifting sanctions. Otherwise, the Russian economy will collapse—I emphasize, it will collapse, contrary to what many experts claim. And the Russian leadership knows perfectly well that it will collapse next year. Therefore, they must ensure that sanctions are lifted or eased. To achieve this, they need a peace agreement or a truce with Ukraine that both the West and Ukraine would find acceptable enough to lift sanctions. If sanctions are not lifted, the Russian economy will collapse in 2025.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

In 2025, the interest rate will most likely be reduced. As for how, by how much, and at what pace—excuse me, I’m not prepared to comment on that. The key interest rate in Russia is expected to decrease in 2025.
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy

We expect 100 rubles per dollar by the end of the year.
#Ruble #Dollar #Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy

This year, I don't think the dollar exchange rate will exceed 100 rubles.
#Ruble #Dollar #Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy #Words of politicians and officials

Next week, they have no other option but to sharply raise the rate... Predictions are predictions. I think at least 3 basis points, which means the current rate of 19% will go up to at least 22%. The Central Bank of Russia will raise the key rate to a minimum of 22% on October 25, 2024.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

The prices for the most common 95-octane gasoline are being held steady for now, largely due to the fuel damper mechanism. My prediction is that they won’t be able to maintain this for long, and eventually, the oil companies will approach the government and say: "There is already a significant gap between the real (economically justified) price of gasoline at retail gas stations and the price we are holding back—let’s start raising it". I’m curious when exactly this will happen, but I suspect we’re looking at the beginning of the year. Prices for 95-octane gasoline in Russia will soon start to rise.
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy #Gasoline

I think by the end of this year or the beginning of the next, it will be somewhere around 105-110. The dollar will be 105-110 rubles.
#Ruble #Dollar #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

As for the exchange rate, I would say we will confidently break through 100 this year, likely around November. By the end of 2024, the exchange rate will be above 100 rubles per dollar.
#Ruble #Dollar #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

And now, under the conditions of sanctions, isolation from the world, all negative factors such as demographic challenges, the labor market, lack of investments, and resources, Russia is simply doomed to a catastrophe. An economic catastrophe.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

As I understand it, sanctions will always be tied to the territories that have been newly acquired. And it’s clear that I don’t see any reason for them to be lifted, even if they sign peace ten times. In other words, we’ll be under sanctions for a very long time. Sanctions against Russia won’t be lifted anytime soon, even if Russia reaches a peace agreement with Ukraine.
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy

They're once again spinning unrealistic fairy tales... Now they want to convince us that they'll keep the deficit under a trillion rubles. In the three years of full-scale war, none of the Ministry of Finance's forecasts have come true. Our forecasts, however, have been accurate: they've exceeded all their modest projections, and nothing has worked out as they planned. This means that Russia's budget deficit in 2025 will exceed 1 trillion rubles.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

Unproductive money is flowing into the economy and inflation is being stimulated. Since inflation is being stimulated, the Central Bank will keep interest rates high for a long time. With high rates, the economy is slowing down. We can say that we will likely enter stagflation in 2025, which means economic stagnation with high inflation. And stagflation is a terrible thing.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

Inflation next year, according to our group's calculations, is estimated to be around 30-35 percent.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

What will happen next is hard to say. Most likely, there will be no increase in salaries. Prices will continue to rise. Prices will continue to rise because the Central Bank cannot do anything about inflation.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

War consumes everything. And it seems that in the coming year, Russia will completely deplete the National Wealth Fund. This is not just my opinion; it was written by the Central Bank... In the coming year, Russia will fully eat through the NWF. By the end of this year, there will be only about 3.5 trillion rubles left, at best. Most likely, in the coming year, Russia will completely lose the National Wealth Fund.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

Right now, renting is more advantageous. Buying an apartment doesn’t make sense at the moment. Prices won’t drop. The real estate market cools down very slowly... It takes 5-7 years for the real estate market to cool off, so prices aren’t going to fall.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

I expect a soft, gradual devaluation of the ruble... but it is clear that it will not be possible to balance the budget next year without devaluation.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

The process of nationalization will begin... The share of the private sector will decrease, while the share of the public sector will increase. Gradually, the share of assets under direct government control will grow... This will be a gradual approach to the economy of North Korea... There will be more mechanisms for regulated distribution of food... It won't happen very quickly, but this is a clear trend on the horizon of 10-15 years.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

My bet is that VTB will either take over or play a significant role in the future of Wildberries, and I’m confident in this bet.
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy

I would be happy to be wrong and to see the Central Bank lower the interest rate... However, a 100% increase is likely to happen. I think it will happen in October, and then there will be another rate increase in December.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

This morning Brent was at 74... If the price keeps dropping, and the overall trend for the year, I think, is downward. It’s hard to predict, but for now, I don’t see any reason for a significant price increase. Talking about oil prices.
#Oil #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

We bet with Michael $100 that military spending will increase by no less than 2 trillion rubles in 2025.
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy #War in Ukraine

The situation with the real estate market is quite frightening. We are likely facing a drop in prices here.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

I think these are far from the last stages of tax increases. A tourist tax was recently introduced; if it was previously light, it is now being raised... In the Arkhangelsk region, one tax is being increased. This is a trend that will continue as long as the war goes on, that’s 100%, and most likely even after
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy #War in Ukraine

We are expecting the next meeting, at which we will most likely see an increase in the rate. At the next meeting, the Central Bank will raise the key rate again.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

I am sure that it is not the limit; I think it will be 20. Response to the remark: 'The Central Bank raised the rate to 19%, and Nabiullina said that this is not the limit'
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

My prediction is that in 2025 inflation will kill the Russian economy, the Russian budget, and the Russian regime.
#Russia #Economy of Russia

The Central Bank will not change the rate today.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

The Central Bank will raise the rate. But not today, in my opinion.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

There will be no 100 rubles to the dollar in Russia in a year. The exchange rate will be much worse.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy #Ruble #Dollar

97-100 rubles to the dollar. Likely in the fall 2024.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy #Ruble #Dollar

I think it will be 14 rubles per yuan in the fall.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy #Ruble #Yuan

I think the key interest rate will be raised to 20% in September-October. If they raise it only to 19% in September, it will be laughed at. I believe that by October 25, the rate will already be 20%
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

Why raise the key interest rate to 18 percent, which has already been raised, and literally in a couple of days raise it to 19 or maybe 20 percent.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

We are waiting for the meeting on September 13. There is no scenario where the Central Bank will start lowering the rate. In the best case, the maintenance of 18% is being discussed. I will take a risk and make a prediction: I think they will raise it after all. The Central Bank of Russia is likely to raise the key interest rate at the upcoming meeting on September 13.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

Next year, considering how the American sanctions are escalating, how severely they are hitting the Russian economy, and how much the Russian economy is being cut off from the global economy, I absolutely see no possibilities for the Russian economy to hold on without the lifting of sanctions... it will collapse, it will crash.
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy

In the long run, the dollar will rise. I keep saying this. The dollar and the euro will rise. In relation to the ruble.
#Russia #Economy #Economy of Russia #Ruble #Dollar

The European Union will not dare to seize frozen Russian assets, but Russia will also not get them back for a very long time.
#Russia #Economy #Economy of Russia #European Union

I dare say that the migration increase will also rise. Apparently after the end of the special military operation.
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy

Sanctions will remain even after the conflict is resolved; they are here for the long term.
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy

Therefore, even if tomorrow they lay down their arms and Putin and Zelensky embrace... no sanctions will be lifted. From Russia
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Economy #Economy of Russia

September, October, November... Most likely, they will keep it in the range of 93-97. The exchange rate of the dollar in Russia.
#Russia #Economy #Economy of Russia #Dollar #Ruble

Of course. A response to the remark that China will not develop production in Russia, such as car factories.
#Russia #China #Economy #Economy of Russia

There were some strange hopes among people that China would develop production on the territory of Russia. I immediately said that this is complete nonsense. The Chinese will never build anything on Russian territory. They will sell their cars, but they will not build their own car factories... and there is no need to build anything in Russia. It's too much trouble.
#Russia #China #Economy #Economy of Russia

I have a hypothesis about how they will strengthen the ruble... I think a two-step plan will be played out: 1) The Central Bank will sharply raise its interest rate—by as much as two points (which will ultimately undermine construction and hopes for GDP growth); 2) The government will secretly force several large exporters to sell more currency (I believe a total of at least ten billion). As a result, the dollar will drop from 100 to 90, and the President will proudly praise the Central Bank for its successful work in strengthening the ruble, which will be reported across all channels. After that, the exchange rates of the dollar and euro will gradually start to rise again...
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy #Ruble #Dollar

Many are joking about my prediction that the ruble won't be allowed to fall below 100. I admit that I am not an economist. But, having thought it over, I repeat my prediction about the ruble now – in the near future, the heads of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance will get a reprimand, and the exchange rate will drop below 100. Among the factors weakening the ruble, there are both temporary and psychological factors. Therefore, my prediction is that the ruble will be less than 100. Although many currently believe that since the ruble has broken the 100 mark, it will stay there. But I still think, even though I am not an economist, that it will go slightly below 100. We'll see.
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy #Ruble #Dollar

I don't believe that any of this money will return to Russia before compensation for the damage caused by the war is paid. About frozen Russian assets.
#Russia #Economy #Economy of Russia #War in Ukraine

I believe that the euro will trade in February in the range of 72-75 rubles, closer to its lower boundary.
#Russia #Economy #Economy of Russia #Ruble #Euro

Already now, at the beginning of the year, oil is below $50. And it is unlikely to become more expensive.
#Oil #Economy #Economy of Russia #Russia

Since we saw at the end of last year that the U.S. economy did not fall into crisis, while the Russian economy slightly slowed down in its adaptive and positive trends, the ruble has depreciated a bit against the dollar and is now, at the end of January, around 67-68 rubles. As I do not see any prerequisites for significant changes in either the Russian economy or the U.S. in February, it seems that this is the rate to expect in the coming month. Of course, fluctuations around this figure are possible, and they will be significant, as there is some uncertainty in the external economic situation. But the most important thing is that the Central Bank of Russia is not intervening in the exchange rate formation mechanism and is not smoothing out excessively sharp peaks in fluctuations. As a result, the ruble will fluctuate around the 67-68 rubles per dollar mark, with noticeable variations of about one ruble in either direction. But on average, this is the rate we can expect throughout February.
#Russia #Economy #Economy of Russia #Ruble #Dollar

But in any case, I don't think the Central Bank will let it go beyond 85-90 rubles. The exchange rate of the dollar in rubles in 2023.
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy #Ruble #Dollar