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Predictions and promises monitor

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#Economy of Russia

Authors
48
Predictions
151
Verified
56
Came true
59%
Complex
63%
Confident
30%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Igor Lipsitz

The ice is thin, but the Central Bank will lower the rate anyway—it seems they've decided there's no point in protecting Russians from inflation.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Ekaterina Kotrikadze

I think Trump will announce sanctions tomorrow, but they won't be the kind Lindsey Graham is proposing. I believe Graham's suggested sanctions – 500% tariffs against Russia's trade partners – are too extreme; I don't think that will happen. I don't believe Trump will go that far. I think the sanctions will be different, much less painful, but still a significant blow to Russia.
Expected
#USA #Russia #Trump #War in Ukraine #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

They are trying to scare us by saying there will be no sanctions, look, Hungary and Slovakia have blocked new sanctions. Well, let me give you a forecast: another week or two, 1-2 weeks, and there will already be the 18th package of sanctions. That is my simple forecast. 18th package of sanctions against Russia
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia #European Union
ru → en

Evgeny Kogan

Here are a bunch of factors why the ruble is strong. In my opinion, this situation is temporary. There will be a reversal. I think when the rate is cut again by 100 basis points in July, by around August, the ruble will gradually start to weaken.
Expected
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

Gazprom is exerting very strong pressure; it wants to be allowed—and apparently it will be allowed—to index gas tariffs twice a year. In Russia.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

You're looking at such a long horizon for the interest rate, it's very difficult. The world is so turbulent that even a month is a long time. I think, most likely, they will keep the rate unchanged and say they will continue to monitor the trend of slowing inflation, but the Central Bank is ready to raise the rate if inflationary pressure in the Russian economy intensifies again. This is roughly the scenario I expect. In response to the question: "I understand it's still quite early to make predictions about the next Central Bank meeting, but if the decision is made based on behind-the-scenes situations, intrigues, internal power struggles, what forecast would you make for the next meeting on July 25? What will they do with the rate? Will they keep lowering it?"
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

Literally yesterday, the issue of capping the price of Russian oil was being discussed, lowering the cap from 60 to 45... The G7 meeting is supposed to start on Sunday or Monday, where they were expected to agree on this new price cap of 45 dollars, and then the European Union was supposed to support it by the end of June. But today, the oil price has already gone up — it's already 75 dollars per barrel, instead of 60-something — and now, it seems to me, they won’t dare to lower it to 45.
Completely came true
#Oil #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

What will happen to the Central Bank's key rate? I believe the Central Bank will lower it to 20.5-20.0%. Nabiullina needs to show that she is flexible. But the statement will say that the Central Bank does not rule out raising the rate again if the disinflation trend proves unstable.
Completely came true
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Andrey Kostin

I’m willing to bet that the central bank’s interest rate will be lowered. We’re seeing signs of a gradual economic slowdown and easing inflation. In Russia.
Completely came true
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

In my article in The Insider, I write about these "sanctions from hell" proposed by Lindsey Graham — some kind of secondary sanctions against importers of Russian oil, 500% tariffs. None of that will happen. It's a PR phantom. It's impossible. Secondary sanctions against buyers of Russian oil are not feasible, because nearly 80% of Russian oil is purchased by just two countries — India and China — the largest trading partners of the United States.
Expected
#USA #Russia #Economy #Economy of Russia #Oil
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

I’ll take the risk of making a forecast. If everything continues along the current trajectory, then the end of 2025 — the last quarter — will be very difficult: a real downturn, real negative growth, inflation out of control, and nothing to cover the budget with. It will be a situation very much like all those past crises used to scare children. And there will be no help available. The state has no trillions left to save the economy.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Vladislav Zhukovsky

I think Nabiullina will resist in every possible way right now. I believe the meeting on June 6 is important — we need to pay attention to Nabiullina’s rhetoric. I don’t think the rate will be lowered. Key interest rate in Russia
Did not come true
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

The oil price cap should have been revised a long time ago. Sixty is already a completely outdated figure for the current market. It should have been lowered. But imagining that the G20 will now come together and decide to lower it from 60 to 45 — that’s unrealistic. There are already too many disagreements, too many conflicts, so it’s no longer possible to make it happen. Referring to the oil price cap for Russia.
Expected
#Oil #Economy #Russia #Economy of Russia #G20
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Over the next year, we can forget about prices of \$70 for Russian export oil — that would mean Brent at \$80. That’s definitely not something we’re facing for now.
Expected
#Oil #Economy #Russia #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Boris Aronshtein

As for the ruble... By the end of the year... Forecasting is a very ungrateful task, but I think it will be in the range of 85–95. The ruble will be 85–95 per dollar by the end of the year.
Expected
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Dmitry Demushkin

Nah, there’s no chance of a rate cut at all. In response to the question: "What do you think about the key interest rate? Nabiullina didn’t lower it on April 25."
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Mikhail Fishman

Essentially, the 30-day ceasefire has fallen through. Accordingly, there are no sanctions, as we can see. Technically, the ultimatum is nearing its end, time hasn’t fully run out yet. But it’s almost obvious that Europe won’t impose sanctions, because it doesn’t know what to do. The idea was to act in coordination with Washington, but Washington is saying unclear things. Regarding Europe’s ultimatum to Russia to agree to a 30-day ceasefire, or face new sanctions.
Did not come true
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Europe #Economy #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Translation: And there was also an increase in spending. It’s at 0.8 trillion just for now. They will definitely increase it further. Now by autumn, they will start discussing the 2026 budget. Last year, Michael Nacke and I bet $100, and I won, that they would significantly increase spending, and they will increase it again this time.
Expected
#Russia #Economy #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

The more quality assets are replaced by all sorts of paper “wrappers,” the sooner a banking system crisis will occur. But the fact that it will shake this year, and we will see very powerful, sharp moves by the Central Bank to rescue and inject liquidity into the banking system — that’s definitely for this year, 2025.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Sergey Aleksashenko

A huge number of Russian enterprises that benefit from the state’s monopoly protection — shielding them from competition — will lose their place under the sun. The most striking example is the Russian aircraft manufacturing corporation, which is trying to produce import-independent Superjets and MC-21s that are becoming heavy, fly short distances, and have inefficient engines. In global competition, they will lose. Such companies have no future.
Expected
#Russia #Economy #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Vladislav Inozemtsev

Let’s say inflation is above 15%, GDP drops by 1–1.5%, the budget is cut by 10%, and the standard of living declines. If we define that as a crisis, then the probability of it happening... in the second half of next year, the probability is around 15–20%. In response to the question: “How would you assess the probability of a crisis happening this year or next?”
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Inozemtsev

Let’s say inflation is above 15%, GDP drops by 1–1.5%, the budget is cut by 10%, and the standard of living declines. If we define that as a crisis, then the probability of it happening this year is 0%, and in the second half of next year, the probability is around 15–20%. In response to the question: “How would you assess the probability of a crisis happening this year or next?”
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Inozemtsev

And we’ll see a downward trend that will reach 15 percent by the New Year. Continuing from the previous statement: “The Central Bank will lower the rate at the next meeting, I believe not just to 20%, but even lower.”
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Inozemtsev

I don’t see any prospects of a serious banking crisis. Let’s wait until the end of the year and do another stream like this in January 2026. As for hyperinflation — I don’t think it will happen.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Sergey Aleksashenko

I think we can confidently predict that at the next meeting the rate will also remain unchanged, and this will continue until the end of the summer — I believe until around August. The Central Bank of Russia will not change the key rate until the end of summer.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

Right now, methods are being devised for how to formally take people’s deposits under government control without officially freezing them. They won’t take your money away, no. Instead, they’ll issue you a document stating that you own a large package of shares in newly privatized enterprises, and you are now a major portfolio holder of securities. This is the Cyprus model. There too, they didn’t take the money away; they simply forcibly converted it into bank shares. And you became a major shareholder in a bank that nobody needs, and the liquidity of your shares is practically zero. I think this is more likely. I think this is most likely the scheme I’m describing — the conversion of your deposits into something highly illiquid.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

Oil would be at $45–47 now. It had already approached $52. It’s clear that the actual transaction prices for Russian oil had already dropped below $50. But Trump lacked the resolve. And a reduction in Russia’s export revenues could have already triggered this devaluation in the very near future. But so far, the price has dropped by a maximum of $12–15. That’s still relatively okay, not bad — but not enough for us to see the devaluation that will happen anyway. It will happen by the end of the year. It will happen in the summer. It could have already started in April. This is about the ruble.
Expected
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Bogdan Bakaleyko

I don’t really believe that the EU and the U.S. will impose sanctions on liquefied natural gas from Russia, simply because the main company supplying LNG to Europe — Novatek — operates the Arctic LNG project in a consortium with a French company and a Chinese one.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy #European Union #France #China
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

First of all, we’re supposed to have a meeting already in April. But in April, to be honest, I don’t expect the rate to be lowered. The Central Bank of Russia will not lower the key interest rate in April.
Completely came true
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

And then there’s also transport, which is in crisis too. This year, about half of Russia’s transport companies will go bankrupt. And the cost of transportation, at the very least, will double.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Many people are counting on the Central Bank to somehow miraculously defeat inflation and start lowering its key interest rate, which would then bring down loan rates as well. But that is definitely not going to happen.
Expected
#Economy #Economy of Russia #Russia
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

A lot of factors came together. On the one hand, people wanted to get rid of foreign currency; on the other, there was lower demand for it from importers; and on yet another, there was a desire to bet on the decline of the dollar. And this is the result we got. But I think we’ll see a reversal in April — most likely that’s what will happen. We’ll see. In April, the ruble is expected to weaken against the dollar.
Did not come true
#Ruble #Dollar #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

I stand by my prediction that the word of the year for 2025 will be "bankruptcy." We'll see. I’m not guaranteeing it, but I have that feeling. There will be a lot of bankruptcies in Russia this year.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

For some reason, I feel that at the next meeting, they will raise the rate by half a percentage point, bringing it to 21.5. They won’t dare to increase it too much because it would be both pointless and too provocative. So, in the near future, they will likely keep it at around 21 or 21.5.
Partially came true
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

Most likely, in March, we will see a reversal of the trend toward the ruble’s depreciation. Otherwise, there will be a huge problem with filling the Russian Federation’s budget.
Did not come true
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Judging by what the Central Bank is saying, it looks like they won’t raise it. The Central Bank of Russia will not raise the key interest rate in February 2025.
Completely came true
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Zhukovsky

Nabiullina understands that she is being made the scapegoat, that she is being labeled an enemy of the people, and that there are even attempts to designate her as a foreign agent. She does not want to end up in prison on charges of treason and sabotage. And of course, I believe that on February 14, she will not dare to raise the rate—neither she nor her deputy, Alexei Zabotkin.
Completely came true
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Mykhailo Samus

No, they won’t close it… There is the concept of freedom of navigation. What could happen are sanctions against these tankers. Response to the question: "Will the sea be closed for Russian tankers?" (speaking about the Baltic Sea)
Expected
#Russia #Oil #Economy of Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Zhukovsky

Gasoline prices will continue to rise. In 2023, there was a 7.5% increase, and the previous year it was over 11%. I think this year we’ll be nearing a 15% increase, considering the rise in excise taxes on petroleum products and higher taxes overall. In Russia in 2025.
Expected
#Gasoline #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Anton Orekh

I am confident that when some kind of peace agreement or ceasefire is signed, sanctions will begin to be lifted fairly quickly. Maybe not all at once, but the process will start fairly quickly. A ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Lifting sanctions on Russia.
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine #Economy of Russia #Economy
ru → en

Oleg Komolov

I doubt it. In response to the question: "The Central Bank didn’t raise the rate in December. Does this mean it will start to decline in 2025?" (In Russia).
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en