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To imagine that Ukraine would give up or withdraw from the territories of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia — that’s a strange assumption. Even if Trump joins the war alongside Putin, even that won’t lead to Ukraine agreeing to give them up.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Someday, the hot phase of the conflict will come to an end. The sides are currently engaged in a war of attrition. But I don’t really believe in the signing of any peace agreement right now — because the interests of the parties are diametrically opposed.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I predict that in 2025, there will be attempts to ban WhatsApp and Telegram. In Russia.
#Censorship #Internet #Russia #Telegram

By the end of the year, I think—let’s make a prediction—I’ll say 120. The exchange rate of the Dollar in Russia by the end of 2025.
#Ruble #Dollar #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

It’s clear that nothing is likely to happen with Kherson and Zaporizhzhia next year either. Russia will not capture them.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I think the negotiation process will begin by spring. Talks between Russia, Ukraine, and mediators will start.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA

Yes, the dollar will keep rising, and it will cross 100 soon. In response to: "So, the dollar at 100 this year?" (100 rubles to the dollar).
#Ruble #Dollar #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

I believe that the transition period will come from the top, because no one at the bottom has the resources... The elite will be formed from those people whom you currently hate, among others. Significant changes in Russia will be initiated by the authorities, not by the people.
#Russia

As I understand it, sanctions will always be tied to the territories that have been newly acquired. And it’s clear that I don’t see any reason for them to be lifted, even if they sign peace ten times. In other words, we’ll be under sanctions for a very long time. Sanctions against Russia won’t be lifted anytime soon, even if Russia reaches a peace agreement with Ukraine.
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy

Trump is the main advocate for fighting with China and bringing all production back to the U.S. But if the Democrats come to power, I think China's policy will very much return to a calm course of agreements on key issues with the Americans. I don't believe they will initiate any large-scale trade wars with the Democrats.
#USA #China

Yes, there is a painful question regarding Taiwan. Well, China has clearly seen that now is not the time to address these issues, at least not through military means. And after the example of Russia, it definitely will not go down that path. I believe it will achieve all its goals anyway. I am absolutely convinced of this. The Chinese know how to be patient. They will take Taiwan, they will take everything they need. Just not right away.
#Taiwan #China

Mobilization will happen; according to my calculations, it should take place in the second half of autumn, well, in autumn... I am sure that it will happen. In Russia.
#Russia #War in Ukraine

I don't think so; he will avoid it until the last moment. Response to the question: 'Will Lukashenko join the special military operation?'
#War in Ukraine #Lukashenko #Belarus #Russia #Ukraine

I don't think that it will happen. That Boris Johnson will become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom again.
#United Kingdom