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Predictions and promises monitor

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#Economy

Authors
89
Predictions
241
Verified
69
Came true
61%
Complex
58%
Confident
41%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Vladislav Zhukovsky

I think Nabiullina will resist in every possible way right now. I believe the meeting on June 6 is important — we need to pay attention to Nabiullina’s rhetoric. I don’t think the rate will be lowered. Key interest rate in Russia
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Taras Berezovets

Let’s see what happens with the sanctions. The 17th EU sanctions package is ready. Will it be adopted? Europe is waiting for action from Trump. But Trump, for his part, is in no rush. I’ll venture a guess: Trump, as someone primarily focused on a meeting with Putin — he has said that he’s willing to postpone all other meetings for the sake of this one — doesn’t want to strain relations with the Kremlin. So I think Trump definitely won’t impose any sanctions now. Before the meeting with Putin.
Expected
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

The oil price cap should have been revised a long time ago. Sixty is already a completely outdated figure for the current market. It should have been lowered. But imagining that the G20 will now come together and decide to lower it from 60 to 45 — that’s unrealistic. There are already too many disagreements, too many conflicts, so it’s no longer possible to make it happen. Referring to the oil price cap for Russia.
Expected
#Oil #Economy #Russia #Economy of Russia #G20
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Over the next year, we can forget about prices of \$70 for Russian export oil — that would mean Brent at \$80. That’s definitely not something we’re facing for now.
Expected
#Oil #Economy #Russia #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Boris Aronshtein

I believe there are no fundamental reasons for the oil price to sharply drop again or, conversely, to stabilize. It seems to me that this price level is quite acceptable for American producers.
Expected
#Oil #Economy
ru → en

Boris Aronshtein

As for the ruble... By the end of the year... Forecasting is a very ungrateful task, but I think it will be in the range of 85–95. The ruble will be 85–95 per dollar by the end of the year.
Expected
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Dmitry Demushkin

Nah, there’s no chance of a rate cut at all. In response to the question: "What do you think about the key interest rate? Nabiullina didn’t lower it on April 25."
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Mikhail Fishman

Essentially, the 30-day ceasefire has fallen through. Accordingly, there are no sanctions, as we can see. Technically, the ultimatum is nearing its end, time hasn’t fully run out yet. But it’s almost obvious that Europe won’t impose sanctions, because it doesn’t know what to do. The idea was to act in coordination with Washington, but Washington is saying unclear things. Regarding Europe’s ultimatum to Russia to agree to a 30-day ceasefire, or face new sanctions.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Europe #Economy #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Win/Win

Three hours ago in Geneva, the delegations of the U.S. and China reached a trade agreement and signed regulatory treaties in the field of foreign trade and interstate commercial relations. The U.S. tariff war against China is over. Starting tomorrow, all previously imposed tariffs will be lifted. Most tariffs will be reduced to zero.
Completely came true
#USA #China #Economy
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

America itself made China competitive by moving all operations there, relying solely on cheap labor. Now, if it removes this pillar, we’ll see whether the cheap labor of not-very-free people can change anything. My position is no. They will lose to America, and they will fall behind much more significantly than one might imagine.
Expected
#USA #China #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Translation: And there was also an increase in spending. It’s at 0.8 trillion just for now. They will definitely increase it further. Now by autumn, they will start discussing the 2026 budget. Last year, Michael Nacke and I bet $100, and I won, that they would significantly increase spending, and they will increase it again this time.
Expected
#Russia #Economy #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

In the long term, oil will, of course, decline. That’s an obvious trend. No more $100 per barrel, unless there are major wars, but even then it would be short-lived. We will no longer see oil steadily returning to $100 per barrel.
Expected
#Oil #Economy
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

The more quality assets are replaced by all sorts of paper “wrappers,” the sooner a banking system crisis will occur. But the fact that it will shake this year, and we will see very powerful, sharp moves by the Central Bank to rescue and inject liquidity into the banking system — that’s definitely for this year, 2025.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Sergey Aleksashenko

A huge number of Russian enterprises that benefit from the state’s monopoly protection — shielding them from competition — will lose their place under the sun. The most striking example is the Russian aircraft manufacturing corporation, which is trying to produce import-independent Superjets and MC-21s that are becoming heavy, fly short distances, and have inefficient engines. In global competition, they will lose. Such companies have no future.
Expected
#Russia #Economy #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Elon Musk — just look at how quickly and how far he has driven his Tesla down. You’ve probably seen the numbers for the first quarter: falling sales, falling profits. The guy, through his stupidity, impulsiveness, and inability to manage, has crashed his own company. My prediction: Tesla won’t recover from this, it won’t bounce back.
Expected
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Inozemtsev

Let’s say inflation is above 15%, GDP drops by 1–1.5%, the budget is cut by 10%, and the standard of living declines. If we define that as a crisis, then the probability of it happening... in the second half of next year, the probability is around 15–20%. In response to the question: “How would you assess the probability of a crisis happening this year or next?”
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Inozemtsev

Let’s say inflation is above 15%, GDP drops by 1–1.5%, the budget is cut by 10%, and the standard of living declines. If we define that as a crisis, then the probability of it happening this year is 0%, and in the second half of next year, the probability is around 15–20%. In response to the question: “How would you assess the probability of a crisis happening this year or next?”
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Inozemtsev

And we’ll see a downward trend that will reach 15 percent by the New Year. Continuing from the previous statement: “The Central Bank will lower the rate at the next meeting, I believe not just to 20%, but even lower.”
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Inozemtsev

I don’t see any prospects of a serious banking crisis. Let’s wait until the end of the year and do another stream like this in January 2026. As for hyperinflation — I don’t think it will happen.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Sergey Aleksashenko

I think we can confidently predict that at the next meeting the rate will also remain unchanged, and this will continue until the end of the summer — I believe until around August. The Central Bank of Russia will not change the key rate until the end of summer.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Win/Win

On Monday, Trump will impose maximum sanctions against more than 200 senior Ukrainian officials, including Zelensky himself.
Did not come true
#Ukraine #Trump #USA #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

Right now, methods are being devised for how to formally take people’s deposits under government control without officially freezing them. They won’t take your money away, no. Instead, they’ll issue you a document stating that you own a large package of shares in newly privatized enterprises, and you are now a major portfolio holder of securities. This is the Cyprus model. There too, they didn’t take the money away; they simply forcibly converted it into bank shares. And you became a major shareholder in a bank that nobody needs, and the liquidity of your shares is practically zero. I think this is more likely. I think this is most likely the scheme I’m describing — the conversion of your deposits into something highly illiquid.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Bill Browder

No, I don’t think that’s possible. I’m not sure about the U.S., but the European Union and the United Kingdom definitely have no intention of lifting any sanctions. And overall, this whole idea of a truce seems like a fabrication to me. In response to the question: "Mr. Browder, do you think the West might lift some sanctions on Russia in the foreseeable future?"
Expected
#Russia #European Union #Economy
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

Oil would be at $45–47 now. It had already approached $52. It’s clear that the actual transaction prices for Russian oil had already dropped below $50. But Trump lacked the resolve. And a reduction in Russia’s export revenues could have already triggered this devaluation in the very near future. But so far, the price has dropped by a maximum of $12–15. That’s still relatively okay, not bad — but not enough for us to see the devaluation that will happen anyway. It will happen by the end of the year. It will happen in the summer. It could have already started in April. This is about the ruble.
Expected
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

There will be public crackdowns on big business... large corporations, banks. There will be a lot of these high-profile attacks, just to shift the blame for what's happening in the economy. But I still expect that at some point — in 2025 — Elvira Nabiullina will have to resign, no matter what. They’ll have to make her the scapegoat.
Expected
#Russia #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

The dollar is no longer as good an investment option as it used to be. The euro is strengthening now. In the short term, it’s probably worth investing in euros. The euro will be worth more relative to the dollar.
Expected
#Dollar #Euro #Economy
ru → en

Bogdan Bakaleyko

I don’t really believe that the EU and the U.S. will impose sanctions on liquefied natural gas from Russia, simply because the main company supplying LNG to Europe — Novatek — operates the Arctic LNG project in a consortium with a French company and a Chinese one.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy #European Union #France #China
ru → en

Mark Feygin

My prediction is very cautious: Trump won’t impose any significant sanctions to punish Moscow, even if it does come to that.
Expected
#Russia #Trump #Economy
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

Russia needs to return to the global stage. But returning while sanctions are still in place is impossible. And no one will lift the sanctions without the de-occupation of the territories.
Expected
#Russia #Economy #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Stepan Demura

I think it will last a long time. I get the impression that this isn’t really about a tariff war, but about a serious economic war with China. Everything else is just a formality and a tool for building a broader coalition of countries against China — economically speaking. In response to the question: "How long will the tariff war continue?"
Expected
#USA #China #Economy
ru → en

Stepan Demura

Well, not the bankruptcy of the Bank of England, but of the British government. Yes, a national bankruptcy. In response to the question: "What’s going to happen with the Bank of England? Are you predicting bankruptcy?"
Expected
#United Kingdom #Economy
ru → en

Evgeny Gontmakher

I think that this confrontation between China and the United States will most likely end with yet another phone call between Trump and Xi Jinping, during which they will probably agree on some kind of truce in this trade war — in terms of the exchange of tariff blows — and begin negotiations. They’ll create some large working groups on both sides and start talks on how things should really be structured, and eventually, this will end in a compromise. This could go on for several months, of course, but China will, in some sense, acknowledge that the U.S. has a point.
Expected
#USA #China #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

First of all, we’re supposed to have a meeting already in April. But in April, to be honest, I don’t expect the rate to be lowered. The Central Bank of Russia will not lower the key interest rate in April.
Completely came true
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

There’s a funny story — because of Trump’s tariffs, the U.S. trade balance won’t improve, but will actually worsen. That’s because of the global economic slowdown, falling oil prices, and the shutdown of oil production facilities in the U.S., which is an important part of American exports. They’ll be exporting less oil, which means their trade balance will get worse. In other words, Trump’s actions will lead to the exact opposite result.
Expected
#USA #Economy #Trump
ru → en

Gennady Medetsky

I think that within the next week or two to three weeks, we should see a resolution to the U.S.–China trade war, because this isn’t really about money.
Completely came true
#USA #China #Economy
ru → en

Dmitry Gordon

I think it will die down. Trump's main goal is a tariff war with China and, more broadly, a struggle with China for global hegemony. In response to the question: "A question about the global tariff war. Do you think it will quiet down and fade away, or are we in for a second round?"
Expected
#Economy #USA #Trump
ru → en

Win/Win

Not even the Minister of Economy went from Ukraine to the U.S. for negotiations on the resource deal — the highest-ranking official there is Deputy Minister Kachka. No one knows who that is. The Ukrainians once again brought a proposal the Americans are seeing for the first time. There will be no deal. Trump, you've been misled.
Did not come true
#Ukraine #USA #Economy #Trump
ru → en

Stepan Demura

If industrial production in the U.S. increases its share of GDP by 5 percent. But that will never happen.
Expected
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Tatiana Mikhailova

Given that OPEC+ isn’t planning to cut production — in fact, they’re planning to increase it — the pressure is downward. I don’t think it will bounce back to the level it was at under the Trump presidency, no. In response to the question: "I understand that it’s impossible to predict oil prices, but still — what trend would you point to right now?"
Expected
#Oil #Economy
ru → en

Win/Win

What does Trump want from China, raising tariffs on it every day? He’ll lower them eventually anyway.
Expected
#Trump #USA #China #Economy
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

If this expulsion of China from the classroom by teacher Trump leads to increased trade between the U.S. and Russia, then trade turnover between Russia and the U.S. should skyrocket. But I think you understand that this won’t happen. Right now, China sells — or used to sell before the introduction of those 125% tariffs — iPhones to the U.S. So what now? Is China supposed to sell iPhones to Russia, and Russia to the U.S.? That’s absurd. It’s not going to happen.
Expected
#Russia #China #USA #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

And then there’s also transport, which is in crisis too. This year, about half of Russia’s transport companies will go bankrupt. And the cost of transportation, at the very least, will double.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Denis Borisov

The interest rate... it will be lowered in the near future. In the U.S.
Expected
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Denis Borisov

And then, on the 19th day, the Federal Reserve cut the interest rate to nearly zero and printed a bunch of cash. They printed 700 billion U.S. dollars. Now the numbers will be completely different because money has devalued. This time they'll start printing by the trillions — just watch.
Expected
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

Musk’s sales are down 50 percent, and the market cap is down 17 percent. Smart Democrats in Congress have already picked up on this. They’re buying like crazy — buying Tesla stock. Because it will go up. It can’t go down.
Expected
#Economy
ru → en

Boris Aronshtein

Oil has been falling since January 2025... I don’t think it will continue to decline significantly.
Expected
#Oil #Economy
ru → en

Mark Feygin

They’ll do it. Just look at how freely they impose multibillion-dollar fines on these American companies. In response to the remark: "What if the Europeans introduce some tariffs on American digital services?"
Expected
#European Union #USA #Economy
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Right now they are developing some kind of mechanism whereby, no matter what Orban’s position is, they simply activate the mechanism — and that’s it. Europe will not lift the sanctions. Sanctions against Russia.
Expected
#Europe #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Many people are counting on the Central Bank to somehow miraculously defeat inflation and start lowering its key interest rate, which would then bring down loan rates as well. But that is definitely not going to happen.
Expected
#Economy #Economy of Russia #Russia
ru → en

Mikhail Krutikhin

Eventually, by the end of the year—or maybe even earlier, in the fall—these countries will make a final decision (I'm already quite sure of it): let’s stop limiting production altogether. Each country will produce as much oil as it wants, as much as it can. About OPEC
Expected
#Oil #Economy
ru → en