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Predictions and promises monitor

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#Economy

Authors
76
Predictions
182
Verified
58
Came true
66%
Complex
57%
Confident
43%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Boris Aronshtein

Oil has been falling since January 2025... I don’t think it will continue to decline significantly.
Expected
#Oil #Economy
ru → en

Mark Feygin

They’ll do it. Just look at how freely they impose multibillion-dollar fines on these American companies. In response to the remark: "What if the Europeans introduce some tariffs on American digital services?"
Expected
#European Union #USA #Economy
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Right now they are developing some kind of mechanism whereby, no matter what Orban’s position is, they simply activate the mechanism — and that’s it. Europe will not lift the sanctions. Sanctions against Russia.
Expected
#Europe #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Many people are counting on the Central Bank to somehow miraculously defeat inflation and start lowering its key interest rate, which would then bring down loan rates as well. But that is definitely not going to happen.
Expected
#Economy #Economy of Russia #Russia
ru → en

Mikhail Krutikhin

Eventually, by the end of the year—or maybe even earlier, in the fall—these countries will make a final decision (I'm already quite sure of it): let’s stop limiting production altogether. Each country will produce as much oil as it wants, as much as it can. About OPEC
Expected
#Oil #Economy
ru → en

Mikhail Krutikhin

Eventually, by the end of the year—or maybe even earlier, in the fall—these countries will make a final decision (I'm already quite sure of it): let’s stop limiting production altogether. Each country will produce as much oil as it wants, as much as it can.
Expected
#Oil #Economy
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

And where are they going to suddenly get hundreds of billions? They wanted to cut the Pentagon’s budget. Remember, it all started with Vance’s statements — like, “let’s cut Pentagon spending by almost half.” They won’t be allowed to cut the Pentagon’s budget. It’ll be just like with Kennedy.
Expected
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

To maintain competitiveness, China will definitely go for a devaluation of the yuan. I’ll bet a bottle of vodka on it.
Expected
#China #Yuan #Economy
ru → en

Stanislav Kucher

I'm confident that some of these tariffs will be lifted, and quite soon at that. The tariffs imposed by Donald Trump.
Expected
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

A lot of factors came together. On the one hand, people wanted to get rid of foreign currency; on the other, there was lower demand for it from importers; and on yet another, there was a desire to bet on the decline of the dollar. And this is the result we got. But I think we’ll see a reversal in April — most likely that’s what will happen. We’ll see. In April, the ruble is expected to weaken against the dollar.
Expected
#Ruble #Dollar #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Mikhail Krutikhin

Colleagues from the UAE asked what the average oil price would be this year. I boldly replied that it would be 68 dollars per barrel of Brent.
Expected
#Oil #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

I stand by my prediction that the word of the year for 2025 will be "bankruptcy." We'll see. I’m not guaranteeing it, but I have that feeling. There will be a lot of bankruptcies in Russia this year.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

For some reason, I feel that at the next meeting, they will raise the rate by half a percentage point, bringing it to 21.5. They won’t dare to increase it too much because it would be both pointless and too provocative. So, in the near future, they will likely keep it at around 21 or 21.5.
Partially came true
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

I usually don’t give investment advice, but just take a look at the stocks of European defense companies—they will definitely keep growing, 100%.
Expected
#Europe #Economy
ru → en

Sergey Aleksashenko

I don't really understand whether this deal can actually be implemented or not. And I have serious doubts that it will even start working before the end of Donald Trump's presidential term. (The deal between the U.S. and Ukraine on rare earth metals.)
Expected
#USA #Ukraine #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

Most likely, in March, we will see a reversal of the trend toward the ruble’s depreciation. Otherwise, there will be a huge problem with filling the Russian Federation’s budget.
Did not come true
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Oleg Itskhoki

What we are observing now, for example, is that the Latin American MERCOSUR may reach an agreement with Europe. These fragmented regional trade unions will start absorbing the effects that previously belonged to the World Trade Organization. It is very likely that the World Trade Organization will cease to exist, or the United States will withdraw from it.
Expected
#Economy #USA
ru → en

Tatiana Mikhailova

Canada's primary export to the U.S. is oil. The U.S. operates oil refineries that process this oil to produce gasoline for the domestic market. A tariff on Canadian oil would immediately impact gasoline prices within the U.S. Gasoline prices in the U.S. will rise if tariffs on Canadian oil are imposed.
Expected
#USA #Canada #Oil #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Judging by what the Central Bank is saying, it looks like they won’t raise it. The Central Bank of Russia will not raise the key interest rate in February 2025.
Completely came true
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Zhukovsky

Nabiullina understands that she is being made the scapegoat, that she is being labeled an enemy of the people, and that there are even attempts to designate her as a foreign agent. She does not want to end up in prison on charges of treason and sabotage. And of course, I believe that on February 14, she will not dare to raise the rate—neither she nor her deputy, Alexei Zabotkin.
Completely came true
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Mikhail Khazin

There will likely be restrictions on transferring dollars within the territory Trump declares his own. However, I currently believe this will involve a united economic system comprising Canada, the U.S., and Mexico. Dollars, both cash and electronic, will only be transferable out of this system with very strict limitations.
Expected
#Dollar #Economy #USA #Canada #Mexico #Trump
ru → en

Arthur Hayes

I am calling for a $70k to $75k correction in $BTC, a mini financial crisis, and a resumption of money printing that will send us to $250k by the end of the year.
Expected
#Bitcoin #Cryptocurrencies #Economy
en

Sergei Glazyev

The financial bubble, or rather the many financial bubbles, that led to the 2008 financial collapse have not only recovered but are now two to three times larger. Therefore, another financial collapse is imminent and is likely to completely destroy the entire Western monetary and financial system.
Expected
#Economy
ru → en

Oleg Itskhoki

How will the Trump administration address this? The issue of the national debt, for example, clearly won’t be resolved by this administration. On the contrary, the debt will grow, and this might become a topic for the next administration.
Expected
#USA #Economy #Trump
ru → en

Mykhailo Samus

No, they won’t close it… There is the concept of freedom of navigation. What could happen are sanctions against these tankers. Response to the question: "Will the sea be closed for Russian tankers?" (speaking about the Baltic Sea)
Expected
#Russia #Oil #Economy of Russia #Economy
ru → en

Sergey Aleksashenko

A speculative financial instrument, in my understanding, with no future beyond Donald Trump's presidential term. When the rapid collapse of this Trump-coin will begin, no one knows. It could happen on the last day of Trump's presidency or midway through his term.
Expected
#Cryptocurrencies #Trump #USA #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Zhukovsky

Gasoline prices will continue to rise. In 2023, there was a 7.5% increase, and the previous year it was over 11%. I think this year we’ll be nearing a 15% increase, considering the rise in excise taxes on petroleum products and higher taxes overall. In Russia in 2025.
Expected
#Gasoline #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

I speculate on what the next move by the United States might be: closing the Danish Straits, through which about 30-40% of Russia's oil and gas exports pass.
Expected
#USA #Denmark #Russia #Oil #Economy
ru → en

Anton Orekh

I am confident that when some kind of peace agreement or ceasefire is signed, sanctions will begin to be lifted fairly quickly. Maybe not all at once, but the process will start fairly quickly. A ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Lifting sanctions on Russia.
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine #Economy of Russia #Economy
ru → en

Oleg Komolov

I doubt it. In response to the question: "The Central Bank didn’t raise the rate in December. Does this mean it will start to decline in 2025?" (In Russia).
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Yan Veselov

Of course, he will face difficulties in the summer when the debt ceiling will inevitably have to be raised, even if some budget cuts are implemented. In 2025, the U.S. will have to raise the debt ceiling.
Expected
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Oleksiy Arestovych

Bitcoin will continue to rise. It is designed as a growing system. If it’s used for partially storing assets of the U.S. national debt, it could reach a million... Ultimately, each Bitcoin is expected to be worth a million.
Expected
#Bitcoin #Cryptocurrencies #Economy
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

To answer your question, the rate will be raised to 23-25%, but it will be raised a bit later because you can’t spoil the timing. Referring to the key interest rate in Russia.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Iliya Kusa

I don’t see any threat to the U.S. dollar in the coming decades, for sure. BRICS is not ready for this. In bilateral relations, they can afford, as they already do, to move away from the dollar in favor of national currencies, but this doesn’t mean that the dollar is seriously weakening on the global stage yet.
Expected
#Dollar #USA #Economy
ru → en

Oleg Soskin

The rate will now be raised to at least 25%, maybe even 30%, and Nabiullina will have to increase it. Referring to the key interest rate in Russia.
Did not come true
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

The price of oil will not rise. It will most likely decrease due to the obvious oversupply. This is because OPEC countries are eager to increase production and move beyond output quotas. If Trump has any influence here, it’s indirect.
Expected
#Oil #Economy
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

People’s bank deposits will simply be seized. They’ll be frozen or converted into bonds. They’ll call it a patriotic war loan for 20 years. In Russia in 2025.
Expected
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

Trump’s rise to power, in particular, means that energy prices will fall because Trump promises to increase production.
Expected
#Oil #Trump #USA #Economy
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

A key rate reduction, I think, is something we won’t see in the next six months. In response to the question: "Should I take out a loan now or wait for the key rate to drop?"
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Maria Maksakova

Their production cost is around $38. Anything below $38 and above $5 allows Saudi Arabia to earn well. A figure like $36-35 could be reached. If such a price is established, I think the Russian Federation could last a maximum of 3-4 months. Russia will face serious economic problems if the price of oil falls below $38.
Expected
#Oil #Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy
ru → en

Maria Maksakova

As a result, we will, of course, see a much lower oil price. Under Trump, following Saudi Arabia's joining of the Abraham Accords.
Expected
#Oil #Economy #Trump
ru → en

Vladislav Zhukovsky

There will be no reduction to 15%, as Aksakov claims, by spring or summer—it definitely won’t happen. This scenario is practically out of the question. Speaking about Russia’s key interest rate in 2025.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

The stability of the Russian ruble. So, the range of 93-97—I don’t really see the need for it to reach, maybe touch, 98-99, but that’s unlikely. The ruble exchange rate will be 93-97 per dollar until the end of 2024.
Did not come true
#Ruble #Dollar #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

It seems to me that Trump will start by crashing oil prices, working to bring them down in order to take away Putin's main advantage—money.
Expected
#Trump #Oil #Economy #Russia #USA
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

The second question is what will happen under Trump with economic policy in the U.S. I actually believe that his policies will lead to very serious problems for the American economy and will slow it down.
Expected
#USA #Trump #Economy
ru → en