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The ice is thin, but the Central Bank will lower the rate anyway—it seems they've decided there's no point in protecting Russians from inflation.
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

There won't be a collapse. No catastrophic 120 rubles per dollar; there's no need for that.
#Ruble #Dollar #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

The German Chancellor stated that Russia must pay 500 billion euros to Ukraine. And then Russia can ask for the 200 billion euros frozen in the EU to be returned to them. Hmm. By the way, in that case, they wouldn't give back the 200 billion euros for anything. They'd find something to fault.
#Russia #Ukraine #Germany #European Union #Economy

It's clear that by the end of the year, the deficit will be 8 trillion. 6-7-8 – roughly that order. Referring to Russia's budget deficit.
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

The conditions formulated by Putin. Putin very much wants to gain a lot before negotiations begin, before the hot phase of the war stops. As I understand it, he's achieved his goal; he'll get sanctions. And these sanctions will be very painful. Answer to the question: "Under what conditions, in your opinion, will peace negotiations take place?"
#War in Ukraine #Russia #USA #Economy #Ukraine

They are trying to scare us by saying there will be no sanctions, look, Hungary and Slovakia have blocked new sanctions. Well, let me give you a forecast: another week or two, 1-2 weeks, and there will already be the 18th package of sanctions. That is my simple forecast. 18th package of sanctions against Russia
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia #European Union

Plata is currently valued at 3 billion… and we’ll achieve a $10 billion IPO within two years. Plata is a Mexican fintech company.
#Mexico #Economy

Russia is not ready for total war. No matter how much Z-supporters demand total mobilization from Putin and the conversion of industry to a war footing, it will never happen.
#Russia #Economy #Economy of Russia #War in Ukraine

I’m not a Trump buff. But to ignore what Trump actually does—like when he drove oil prices down, and now they’ve been driven up again by an Iranian move—would be foolish. It won’t last long. Prices will fall sooner or later—most likely in early July, though we can’t give exact forecasts; it might be next week, or even this week. Once the confrontation starts to cool, Urals crude will drop below $60.
#Oil #Economy

I think oil will just fluctuate in the near future within the range of around 75–85 dollars per barrel.
#Oil #Economy

Here are a bunch of factors why the ruble is strong. In my opinion, this situation is temporary. There will be a reversal. I think when the rate is cut again by 100 basis points in July, by around August, the ruble will gradually start to weaken.
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

And here we can talk about the main loser in this whole story. The main loser is the President of the United States of America, Donald Trump, and here’s why. He actually traveled to the Middle East to negotiate with Arab regimes and did in fact reach agreements that they would give him a lot of money—not four trillion, of course, but somewhere between one and one and a half trillion he could have received. Now there are no illusions; it’s absolutely clear that he won’t get any money. Due to Israel’s strikes on Iran.
#Trump #USA #Middle East #Economy

Gazprom is exerting very strong pressure; it wants to be allowed—and apparently it will be allowed—to index gas tariffs twice a year. In Russia.
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

You're looking at such a long horizon for the interest rate, it's very difficult. The world is so turbulent that even a month is a long time. I think, most likely, they will keep the rate unchanged and say they will continue to monitor the trend of slowing inflation, but the Central Bank is ready to raise the rate if inflationary pressure in the Russian economy intensifies again. This is roughly the scenario I expect. In response to the question: "I understand it's still quite early to make predictions about the next Central Bank meeting, but if the decision is made based on behind-the-scenes situations, intrigues, internal power struggles, what forecast would you make for the next meeting on July 25? What will they do with the rate? Will they keep lowering it?"
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

I don't believe this will cause any long-term or persistently high change in oil prices — they’ll spike for a while and then start to dip again. Due to the ongoing war between Israel and Iran, oil prices have temporarily risen and will drop again later.
#Oil #Economy #Iran #Israel

If there is a strike on the oil and gas sector, then according to my estimates, the increase in hydrocarbon prices — for example, oil — will be around 17–22 percent. A strike by Israel on Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure.
#Oil #Economy #Iran #Israel

As for the oil price, since there is no scenario of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, I think the price isn’t under much threat — it will be a bit nervous, but then it will settle down.
#Oil #Economy

This will have quite a few different consequences, and one of them we are seeing now in the rise of oil prices. But this is a hysterical market reaction — I don't think it will last long. I believe oil will go down fairly quickly. Due to Israel’s strike on Iran, oil prices have risen, but they will go down soon.
#Oil #Economy

Literally yesterday, the issue of capping the price of Russian oil was being discussed, lowering the cap from 60 to 45... The G7 meeting is supposed to start on Sunday or Monday, where they were expected to agree on this new price cap of 45 dollars, and then the European Union was supposed to support it by the end of June. But today, the oil price has already gone up — it's already 75 dollars per barrel, instead of 60-something — and now, it seems to me, they won’t dare to lower it to 45.
#Oil #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

This is simply a reason for the bulls to push prices up. They managed to do that. This is a temporary phenomenon. I, of course, expect a response from Iran — Shahed drones will fly, they already seem to be flying, missiles will be launched from Iran toward Israel, but I do not expect any catastrophes with oil exports from the Persian Gulf. Therefore, for 2-3 days everything will fluctuate at high levels, and then from Monday everything will drop unless there is some kind of nuclear escalation. Oil prices, which surged due to Israel’s strike on Iran, will start to decline from Monday.
#Oil #Economy #Iran #Israel

Eighty-eight senators are co-authors of the resolution demanding harsh secondary sanctions and 500% tariffs against buyers of Russian oil... Senator Wicker stated that Trump asked the Senate to hold off until the end of this week. So this issue should be resolved next week. And after yesterday’s statements by Thune and Jackson, I have no doubt that the resolution will be adopted.
#USA #Russia #Economy #War in Ukraine

I predict that Donald Trump will hold off on imposing sanctions for now — Ukraine’s attack on the aircraft will give him a reason to claim that neither side wants peace. Sanctions against Russia
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA #Economy

Well, first off all, I will say the United States of America is never going to default.
#USA #Economy

What will happen to the Central Bank's key rate? I believe the Central Bank will lower it to 20.5-20.0%. Nabiullina needs to show that she is flexible. But the statement will say that the Central Bank does not rule out raising the rate again if the disinflation trend proves unstable.
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

I’m willing to bet that the central bank’s interest rate will be lowered. We’re seeing signs of a gradual economic slowdown and easing inflation. In Russia.
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

In my article in The Insider, I write about these "sanctions from hell" proposed by Lindsey Graham — some kind of secondary sanctions against importers of Russian oil, 500% tariffs. None of that will happen. It's a PR phantom. It's impossible. Secondary sanctions against buyers of Russian oil are not feasible, because nearly 80% of Russian oil is purchased by just two countries — India and China — the largest trading partners of the United States.
#USA #Russia #Economy #Economy of Russia #Oil

I believe that within a matter of weeks, Trump will lose the last of his illusions that any kind of agreement is possible. I don’t think he will make a fool of himself in front of the entire world. I expect that in the coming weeks, he will shift to much more serious rhetoric, and we will see new sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation — not symbolic ones, but measures that will strike hard at Putin’s wartime mobilized economy.
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #Economy #War in Ukraine

It seems to me that this scenario is not very likely. In response to the question: "The Wall Street Journal writes that Trump is considering imposing sanctions against Russia this week. How likely do you think this scenario is?"
#USA #Russia #Trump #Economy

In the near future, I don’t really believe that the Central Bank of Russia will significantly lower the key interest rate.
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

I’ll take the risk of making a forecast. If everything continues along the current trajectory, then the end of 2025 — the last quarter — will be very difficult: a real downturn, real negative growth, inflation out of control, and nothing to cover the budget with. It will be a situation very much like all those past crises used to scare children. And there will be no help available. The state has no trillions left to save the economy.
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

I expect that America will completely pull out of this process. I mentioned this scenario even before Trump took office... He won’t impose any sanctions. In response to the question: "What do you expect regarding the sanctions?" (against Russia)
#USA #Russia #Economy

That this will last long — even this 90-day agreement — I don’t really believe it. Trump won’t hold out; he’ll lose it again, start changing things, and a more serious stage of the war will begin, in which it’s unclear who will win. China might come out on top. The lifting of tariffs against China won’t last 90 days, and the trade war will continue.
#USA #China #Trump #Economy

I think Nabiullina will resist in every possible way right now. I believe the meeting on June 6 is important — we need to pay attention to Nabiullina’s rhetoric. I don’t think the rate will be lowered. Key interest rate in Russia
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

Let’s see what happens with the sanctions. The 17th EU sanctions package is ready. Will it be adopted? Europe is waiting for action from Trump. But Trump, for his part, is in no rush. I’ll venture a guess: Trump, as someone primarily focused on a meeting with Putin — he has said that he’s willing to postpone all other meetings for the sake of this one — doesn’t want to strain relations with the Kremlin. So I think Trump definitely won’t impose any sanctions now. Before the meeting with Putin.
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #Economy

The oil price cap should have been revised a long time ago. Sixty is already a completely outdated figure for the current market. It should have been lowered. But imagining that the G20 will now come together and decide to lower it from 60 to 45 — that’s unrealistic. There are already too many disagreements, too many conflicts, so it’s no longer possible to make it happen. Referring to the oil price cap for Russia.
#Oil #Economy #Russia #Economy of Russia #G20

Yes, with a high degree of probability, the freezing of deposits will take place. In Russia
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

Over the next year, we can forget about prices of \$70 for Russian export oil — that would mean Brent at \$80. That’s definitely not something we’re facing for now.
#Oil #Economy #Russia #Economy of Russia

As for the ruble, it is within its value range. And I don’t think there will be any significant movements either up or down.
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

I believe there are no fundamental reasons for the oil price to sharply drop again or, conversely, to stabilize. It seems to me that this price level is quite acceptable for American producers.
#Oil #Economy

As for the ruble... By the end of the year... Forecasting is a very ungrateful task, but I think it will be in the range of 85–95. The ruble will be 85–95 per dollar by the end of the year.
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

Nah, there’s no chance of a rate cut at all. In response to the question: "What do you think about the key interest rate? Nabiullina didn’t lower it on April 25."
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

Essentially, the 30-day ceasefire has fallen through. Accordingly, there are no sanctions, as we can see. Technically, the ultimatum is nearing its end, time hasn’t fully run out yet. But it’s almost obvious that Europe won’t impose sanctions, because it doesn’t know what to do. The idea was to act in coordination with Washington, but Washington is saying unclear things. Regarding Europe’s ultimatum to Russia to agree to a 30-day ceasefire, or face new sanctions.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Europe #Economy #Economy of Russia

Three hours ago in Geneva, the delegations of the U.S. and China reached a trade agreement and signed regulatory treaties in the field of foreign trade and interstate commercial relations. The U.S. tariff war against China is over. Starting tomorrow, all previously imposed tariffs will be lifted. Most tariffs will be reduced to zero.
#USA #China #Economy

America itself made China competitive by moving all operations there, relying solely on cheap labor. Now, if it removes this pillar, we’ll see whether the cheap labor of not-very-free people can change anything. My position is no. They will lose to America, and they will fall behind much more significantly than one might imagine.
#USA #China #Economy

Translation: And there was also an increase in spending. It’s at 0.8 trillion just for now. They will definitely increase it further. Now by autumn, they will start discussing the 2026 budget. Last year, Michael Nacke and I bet $100, and I won, that they would significantly increase spending, and they will increase it again this time.
#Russia #Economy #Economy of Russia

In the long term, oil will, of course, decline. That’s an obvious trend. No more $100 per barrel, unless there are major wars, but even then it would be short-lived. We will no longer see oil steadily returning to $100 per barrel.
#Oil #Economy

I expect a devaluation of the ruble over the May holidays.
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

The more quality assets are replaced by all sorts of paper “wrappers,” the sooner a banking system crisis will occur. But the fact that it will shake this year, and we will see very powerful, sharp moves by the Central Bank to rescue and inject liquidity into the banking system — that’s definitely for this year, 2025.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

A huge number of Russian enterprises that benefit from the state’s monopoly protection — shielding them from competition — will lose their place under the sun. The most striking example is the Russian aircraft manufacturing corporation, which is trying to produce import-independent Superjets and MC-21s that are becoming heavy, fly short distances, and have inefficient engines. In global competition, they will lose. Such companies have no future.
#Russia #Economy #Economy of Russia

Elon Musk — just look at how quickly and how far he has driven his Tesla down. You’ve probably seen the numbers for the first quarter: falling sales, falling profits. The guy, through his stupidity, impulsiveness, and inability to manage, has crashed his own company. My prediction: Tesla won’t recover from this, it won’t bounce back.
#USA #Economy

The Central Bank will lower the rate at the next meeting, I believe not just to 20%, but even lower. In Russia.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

Let’s say inflation is above 15%, GDP drops by 1–1.5%, the budget is cut by 10%, and the standard of living declines. If we define that as a crisis, then the probability of it happening... in the second half of next year, the probability is around 15–20%. In response to the question: “How would you assess the probability of a crisis happening this year or next?”
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

Let’s say inflation is above 15%, GDP drops by 1–1.5%, the budget is cut by 10%, and the standard of living declines. If we define that as a crisis, then the probability of it happening this year is 0%, and in the second half of next year, the probability is around 15–20%. In response to the question: “How would you assess the probability of a crisis happening this year or next?”
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

And we’ll see a downward trend that will reach 15 percent by the New Year. Continuing from the previous statement: “The Central Bank will lower the rate at the next meeting, I believe not just to 20%, but even lower.”
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

Bank defaults will not be allowed. In Russia, in 2025.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

I don’t see any prospects of a serious banking crisis. Let’s wait until the end of the year and do another stream like this in January 2026. As for hyperinflation — I don’t think it will happen.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

I think we can confidently predict that at the next meeting the rate will also remain unchanged, and this will continue until the end of the summer — I believe until around August. The Central Bank of Russia will not change the key rate until the end of summer.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

On Monday, Trump will impose maximum sanctions against more than 200 senior Ukrainian officials, including Zelensky himself.
#Ukraine #Trump #USA #Economy

Right now, methods are being devised for how to formally take people’s deposits under government control without officially freezing them. They won’t take your money away, no. Instead, they’ll issue you a document stating that you own a large package of shares in newly privatized enterprises, and you are now a major portfolio holder of securities. This is the Cyprus model. There too, they didn’t take the money away; they simply forcibly converted it into bank shares. And you became a major shareholder in a bank that nobody needs, and the liquidity of your shares is practically zero. I think this is more likely. I think this is most likely the scheme I’m describing — the conversion of your deposits into something highly illiquid.
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

I think tomorrow the rate will be lowered to 20%, but no one will feel any better because of it :(
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

So, they won’t be lifted precisely because Crimea will not be recognized as Russian. Sanctions on Russia will not be lifted.
#Russia #European Union #Economy of Russia #Economy

No, I don’t think that’s possible. I’m not sure about the U.S., but the European Union and the United Kingdom definitely have no intention of lifting any sanctions. And overall, this whole idea of a truce seems like a fabrication to me. In response to the question: "Mr. Browder, do you think the West might lift some sanctions on Russia in the foreseeable future?"
#Russia #European Union #Economy

Oil has dropped. And it most likely won’t go back up.
#Oil #Economy #Russia #Economy of Russia

Oil would be at $45–47 now. It had already approached $52. It’s clear that the actual transaction prices for Russian oil had already dropped below $50. But Trump lacked the resolve. And a reduction in Russia’s export revenues could have already triggered this devaluation in the very near future. But so far, the price has dropped by a maximum of $12–15. That’s still relatively okay, not bad — but not enough for us to see the devaluation that will happen anyway. It will happen by the end of the year. It will happen in the summer. It could have already started in April. This is about the ruble.
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia