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Predictions and promises monitor

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#Economy

Authors
87
Predictions
221
Verified
61
Came true
64%
Complex
57%
Confident
41%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Vladislav Inozemtsev

Let’s say inflation is above 15%, GDP drops by 1–1.5%, the budget is cut by 10%, and the standard of living declines. If we define that as a crisis, then the probability of it happening... in the second half of next year, the probability is around 15–20%. In response to the question: “How would you assess the probability of a crisis happening this year or next?”
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Inozemtsev

Let’s say inflation is above 15%, GDP drops by 1–1.5%, the budget is cut by 10%, and the standard of living declines. If we define that as a crisis, then the probability of it happening this year is 0%, and in the second half of next year, the probability is around 15–20%. In response to the question: “How would you assess the probability of a crisis happening this year or next?”
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Inozemtsev

And we’ll see a downward trend that will reach 15 percent by the New Year. Continuing from the previous statement: “The Central Bank will lower the rate at the next meeting, I believe not just to 20%, but even lower.”
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Inozemtsev

I don’t see any prospects of a serious banking crisis. Let’s wait until the end of the year and do another stream like this in January 2026. As for hyperinflation — I don’t think it will happen.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Sergey Aleksashenko

I think we can confidently predict that at the next meeting the rate will also remain unchanged, and this will continue until the end of the summer — I believe until around August. The Central Bank of Russia will not change the key rate until the end of summer.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Win/Win

On Monday, Trump will impose maximum sanctions against more than 200 senior Ukrainian officials, including Zelensky himself.
Expected
#Ukraine #Trump #USA #Economy
ru → en

Bill Browder

No, I don’t think that’s possible. I’m not sure about the U.S., but the European Union and the United Kingdom definitely have no intention of lifting any sanctions. And overall, this whole idea of a truce seems like a fabrication to me. In response to the question: "Mr. Browder, do you think the West might lift some sanctions on Russia in the foreseeable future?"
Expected
#Russia #European Union #Economy
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

Oil would be at $45–47 now. It had already approached $52. It’s clear that the actual transaction prices for Russian oil had already dropped below $50. But Trump lacked the resolve. And a reduction in Russia’s export revenues could have already triggered this devaluation in the very near future. But so far, the price has dropped by a maximum of $12–15. That’s still relatively okay, not bad — but not enough for us to see the devaluation that will happen anyway. It will happen by the end of the year. It will happen in the summer. It could have already started in April. This is about the ruble.
Expected
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

There will be public crackdowns on big business... large corporations, banks. There will be a lot of these high-profile attacks, just to shift the blame for what's happening in the economy. But I still expect that at some point — in 2025 — Elvira Nabiullina will have to resign, no matter what. They’ll have to make her the scapegoat.
Expected
#Russia #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

The dollar is no longer as good an investment option as it used to be. The euro is strengthening now. In the short term, it’s probably worth investing in euros. The euro will be worth more relative to the dollar.
Expected
#Dollar #Euro #Economy
ru → en

Bogdan Bakaleyko

I don’t really believe that the EU and the U.S. will impose sanctions on liquefied natural gas from Russia, simply because the main company supplying LNG to Europe — Novatek — operates the Arctic LNG project in a consortium with a French company and a Chinese one.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy #European Union #France #China
ru → en

Mark Feygin

My prediction is very cautious: Trump won’t impose any significant sanctions to punish Moscow, even if it does come to that.
Expected
#Russia #Trump #Economy
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

Russia needs to return to the global stage. But returning while sanctions are still in place is impossible. And no one will lift the sanctions without the de-occupation of the territories.
Expected
#Russia #Economy #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Stepan Demura

I think it will last a long time. I get the impression that this isn’t really about a tariff war, but about a serious economic war with China. Everything else is just a formality and a tool for building a broader coalition of countries against China — economically speaking. In response to the question: "How long will the tariff war continue?"
Expected
#USA #China #Economy
ru → en

Stepan Demura

Well, not the bankruptcy of the Bank of England, but of the British government. Yes, a national bankruptcy. In response to the question: "What’s going to happen with the Bank of England? Are you predicting bankruptcy?"
Expected
#United Kingdom #Economy
ru → en

Evgeny Gontmakher

I think that this confrontation between China and the United States will most likely end with yet another phone call between Trump and Xi Jinping, during which they will probably agree on some kind of truce in this trade war — in terms of the exchange of tariff blows — and begin negotiations. They’ll create some large working groups on both sides and start talks on how things should really be structured, and eventually, this will end in a compromise. This could go on for several months, of course, but China will, in some sense, acknowledge that the U.S. has a point.
Expected
#USA #China #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

First of all, we’re supposed to have a meeting already in April. But in April, to be honest, I don’t expect the rate to be lowered. The Central Bank of Russia will not lower the key interest rate in April.
Completely came true
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

There’s a funny story — because of Trump’s tariffs, the U.S. trade balance won’t improve, but will actually worsen. That’s because of the global economic slowdown, falling oil prices, and the shutdown of oil production facilities in the U.S., which is an important part of American exports. They’ll be exporting less oil, which means their trade balance will get worse. In other words, Trump’s actions will lead to the exact opposite result.
Expected
#USA #Economy #Trump
ru → en

Gennady Medetsky

I think that within the next week or two to three weeks, we should see a resolution to the U.S.–China trade war, because this isn’t really about money.
Expected
#USA #China #Economy
ru → en

Dmitry Gordon

I think it will die down. Trump's main goal is a tariff war with China and, more broadly, a struggle with China for global hegemony. In response to the question: "A question about the global tariff war. Do you think it will quiet down and fade away, or are we in for a second round?"
Expected
#Economy #USA #Trump
ru → en

Win/Win

Not even the Minister of Economy went from Ukraine to the U.S. for negotiations on the resource deal — the highest-ranking official there is Deputy Minister Kachka. No one knows who that is. The Ukrainians once again brought a proposal the Americans are seeing for the first time. There will be no deal. Trump, you've been misled.
Expected
#Ukraine #USA #Economy #Trump
ru → en

Stepan Demura

If industrial production in the U.S. increases its share of GDP by 5 percent. But that will never happen.
Expected
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Tatiana Mikhailova

Given that OPEC+ isn’t planning to cut production — in fact, they’re planning to increase it — the pressure is downward. I don’t think it will bounce back to the level it was at under the Trump presidency, no. In response to the question: "I understand that it’s impossible to predict oil prices, but still — what trend would you point to right now?"
Expected
#Oil #Economy
ru → en

Win/Win

What does Trump want from China, raising tariffs on it every day? He’ll lower them eventually anyway.
Expected
#Trump #USA #China #Economy
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

If this expulsion of China from the classroom by teacher Trump leads to increased trade between the U.S. and Russia, then trade turnover between Russia and the U.S. should skyrocket. But I think you understand that this won’t happen. Right now, China sells — or used to sell before the introduction of those 125% tariffs — iPhones to the U.S. So what now? Is China supposed to sell iPhones to Russia, and Russia to the U.S.? That’s absurd. It’s not going to happen.
Expected
#Russia #China #USA #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

And then there’s also transport, which is in crisis too. This year, about half of Russia’s transport companies will go bankrupt. And the cost of transportation, at the very least, will double.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Denis Borisov

The interest rate... it will be lowered in the near future. In the U.S.
Expected
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Denis Borisov

And then, on the 19th day, the Federal Reserve cut the interest rate to nearly zero and printed a bunch of cash. They printed 700 billion U.S. dollars. Now the numbers will be completely different because money has devalued. This time they'll start printing by the trillions — just watch.
Expected
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

Musk’s sales are down 50 percent, and the market cap is down 17 percent. Smart Democrats in Congress have already picked up on this. They’re buying like crazy — buying Tesla stock. Because it will go up. It can’t go down.
Expected
#Economy
ru → en

Boris Aronshtein

Oil has been falling since January 2025... I don’t think it will continue to decline significantly.
Expected
#Oil #Economy
ru → en

Mark Feygin

They’ll do it. Just look at how freely they impose multibillion-dollar fines on these American companies. In response to the remark: "What if the Europeans introduce some tariffs on American digital services?"
Expected
#European Union #USA #Economy
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Right now they are developing some kind of mechanism whereby, no matter what Orban’s position is, they simply activate the mechanism — and that’s it. Europe will not lift the sanctions. Sanctions against Russia.
Expected
#Europe #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Many people are counting on the Central Bank to somehow miraculously defeat inflation and start lowering its key interest rate, which would then bring down loan rates as well. But that is definitely not going to happen.
Expected
#Economy #Economy of Russia #Russia
ru → en

Mikhail Krutikhin

Eventually, by the end of the year—or maybe even earlier, in the fall—these countries will make a final decision (I'm already quite sure of it): let’s stop limiting production altogether. Each country will produce as much oil as it wants, as much as it can. About OPEC
Expected
#Oil #Economy
ru → en

Mikhail Krutikhin

Eventually, by the end of the year—or maybe even earlier, in the fall—these countries will make a final decision (I'm already quite sure of it): let’s stop limiting production altogether. Each country will produce as much oil as it wants, as much as it can.
Expected
#Oil #Economy
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

And where are they going to suddenly get hundreds of billions? They wanted to cut the Pentagon’s budget. Remember, it all started with Vance’s statements — like, “let’s cut Pentagon spending by almost half.” They won’t be allowed to cut the Pentagon’s budget. It’ll be just like with Kennedy.
Expected
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

To maintain competitiveness, China will definitely go for a devaluation of the yuan. I’ll bet a bottle of vodka on it.
Expected
#China #Yuan #Economy
ru → en

Stanislav Kucher

I'm confident that some of these tariffs will be lifted, and quite soon at that. The tariffs imposed by Donald Trump.
Expected
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

A lot of factors came together. On the one hand, people wanted to get rid of foreign currency; on the other, there was lower demand for it from importers; and on yet another, there was a desire to bet on the decline of the dollar. And this is the result we got. But I think we’ll see a reversal in April — most likely that’s what will happen. We’ll see. In April, the ruble is expected to weaken against the dollar.
Expected
#Ruble #Dollar #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Mikhail Krutikhin

Colleagues from the UAE asked what the average oil price would be this year. I boldly replied that it would be 68 dollars per barrel of Brent.
Expected
#Oil #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

I stand by my prediction that the word of the year for 2025 will be "bankruptcy." We'll see. I’m not guaranteeing it, but I have that feeling. There will be a lot of bankruptcies in Russia this year.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

For some reason, I feel that at the next meeting, they will raise the rate by half a percentage point, bringing it to 21.5. They won’t dare to increase it too much because it would be both pointless and too provocative. So, in the near future, they will likely keep it at around 21 or 21.5.
Partially came true
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

I usually don’t give investment advice, but just take a look at the stocks of European defense companies—they will definitely keep growing, 100%.
Expected
#Europe #Economy
ru → en

Sergey Aleksashenko

I don't really understand whether this deal can actually be implemented or not. And I have serious doubts that it will even start working before the end of Donald Trump's presidential term. (The deal between the U.S. and Ukraine on rare earth metals.)
Expected
#USA #Ukraine #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

Most likely, in March, we will see a reversal of the trend toward the ruble’s depreciation. Otherwise, there will be a huge problem with filling the Russian Federation’s budget.
Did not come true
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Oleg Itskhoki

What we are observing now, for example, is that the Latin American MERCOSUR may reach an agreement with Europe. These fragmented regional trade unions will start absorbing the effects that previously belonged to the World Trade Organization. It is very likely that the World Trade Organization will cease to exist, or the United States will withdraw from it.
Expected
#Economy #USA
ru → en

Tatiana Mikhailova

Canada's primary export to the U.S. is oil. The U.S. operates oil refineries that process this oil to produce gasoline for the domestic market. A tariff on Canadian oil would immediately impact gasoline prices within the U.S. Gasoline prices in the U.S. will rise if tariffs on Canadian oil are imposed.
Expected
#USA #Canada #Oil #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Judging by what the Central Bank is saying, it looks like they won’t raise it. The Central Bank of Russia will not raise the key interest rate in February 2025.
Completely came true
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Zhukovsky

Nabiullina understands that she is being made the scapegoat, that she is being labeled an enemy of the people, and that there are even attempts to designate her as a foreign agent. She does not want to end up in prison on charges of treason and sabotage. And of course, I believe that on February 14, she will not dare to raise the rate—neither she nor her deputy, Alexei Zabotkin.
Completely came true
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Mikhail Khazin

There will likely be restrictions on transferring dollars within the territory Trump declares his own. However, I currently believe this will involve a united economic system comprising Canada, the U.S., and Mexico. Dollars, both cash and electronic, will only be transferable out of this system with very strict limitations.
Expected
#Dollar #Economy #USA #Canada #Mexico #Trump
ru → en

Arthur Hayes

I am calling for a $70k to $75k correction in $BTC, a mini financial crisis, and a resumption of money printing that will send us to $250k by the end of the year.
Expected
#Bitcoin #Cryptocurrencies #Economy
en

Sergei Glazyev

The financial bubble, or rather the many financial bubbles, that led to the 2008 financial collapse have not only recovered but are now two to three times larger. Therefore, another financial collapse is imminent and is likely to completely destroy the entire Western monetary and financial system.
Expected
#Economy
ru → en