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Predictions and promises monitor

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#Economy

Authors
63
Predictions
127
Verified
29
Came true
66%
Complex
52%
Confident
41%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Maria Maksakova

Their production cost is around $38. Anything below $38 and above $5 allows Saudi Arabia to earn well. A figure like $36-35 could be reached. If such a price is established, I think the Russian Federation could last a maximum of 3-4 months. Russia will face serious economic problems if the price of oil falls below $38.
Expected
#Oil #Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy
ru → en

Roman Svitan

Trump will work on lowering the price of oil, and he has the mechanisms to do it. I think the price of oil will definitely drop below 60 dollars—he’ll keep it somewhere around 60 to 50.
Expected
#Trump #Oil #USA #Economy
ru → en

Mikhail Fishman

This military economy is built like a bubble; it cannot avoid bursting. These are salaries not backed by increased labor productivity. These incomes rest on the fact that there are no people actually working. And these tanks keep rolling on, turning into scrap metal in Donbas, along with the missiles. In this sense, nothing is being produced—no new factories, no new enterprises. The economy isn’t developing; it’s swelling like a bubble. At some point, it will inevitably burst, but how, in what situation, and what that will look like, I don’t know. Talking about Russia's economy.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Sergey Aleksashenko

We need to monitor the reactions of Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia. These are three countries that are violators of the OPEC+ agreement. If they do not take any swift actions to reduce oil production and supply to the global market, I believe there is a high probability that the Saudi authorities will eventually turn the tap on and Saudi oil will flood the global market. It seems to me that this scenario is much more likely because, ultimately, all agreements within OPEC end up being violated. After that, the agreement collapses, and there is some stress in the market, prices drop quickly, after which they regroup and prices stabilize and start to rise.
Expected
#Oil #Saudi Arabia #Russia #Kazakhstan #Iraq #Economy
ru → en

John Rubino

So yeah, I think home prices in the US are due to fall. But I think that what comes after what will probably be a deflationary recession of the the next year or two just because you know we've taken on so much bad debt that we have to have a recession because consumers are out of money everything's too expensive consumer spending will go down, the economy will slow down we'll have a recession we'll have an equities bare Market all of that will happen and it'll take real estate down with it.
Expected
#USA #Economy
en

Mikhail Svetov

In my opinion, after reaching 100-120 thousand, there will be a significant pullback. That's my prediction. After Bitcoin breaks through 100 thousand, there will be a significant pullback.
Expected
#Bitcoin #Cryptocurrencies #Economy
ru → en

Evgeniy Stupin

I think these are far from the last stages of tax increases. A tourist tax was recently introduced; if it was previously light, it is now being raised... In the Arkhangelsk region, one tax is being increased. This is a trend that will continue as long as the war goes on, that’s 100%, and most likely even after
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

The war in Taiwan will, of course, devastate the economies of the entire world. A hypothetical war
Expected
#Taiwan #Economy
ru → en

Alfred Koch

I don't think so. I believe that this money will be returned to Russia. And it will definitely be returned to the oligarchs whose funds were frozen. About frozen Russian assets. They will not be transferred to Ukraine but returned to Russia.
Expected
#Russia #Ukraine #War in Ukraine #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

There were some strange hopes among people that China would develop production on the territory of Russia. I immediately said that this is complete nonsense. The Chinese will never build anything on Russian territory. They will sell their cars, but they will not build their own car factories... and there is no need to build anything in Russia. It's too much trouble.
Expected
#Russia #China #Economy #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

The average European is much more concerned about the price of their food and gas, which would be beneficial for them if it were supplied directly through a pipeline from Russia. Therefore, as soon as the escalation of the conflict is reduced, the pipeline will be restored within three months, and Europe will immediately return to Russian gas in full volume. No one is dismantling the gas transportation system.
Expected
#European Union #Gas #Russia #War in Ukraine #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

I have a hypothesis about how they will strengthen the ruble... I think a two-step plan will be played out: 1) The Central Bank will sharply raise its interest rate—by as much as two points (which will ultimately undermine construction and hopes for GDP growth); 2) The government will secretly force several large exporters to sell more currency (I believe a total of at least ten billion). As a result, the dollar will drop from 100 to 90, and the President will proudly praise the Central Bank for its successful work in strengthening the ruble, which will be reported across all channels. After that, the exchange rates of the dollar and euro will gradually start to rise again...
Expected
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy #Ruble #Dollar
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

Events in the Middle East can certainly impact the market, and in the short term, they will likely have an effect, but probably not for very long and not in a very severe way. Israel's war against Hamas may affect oil prices, but only for a short period and not significantly.
Expected
#Oil #Economy #Israel-Hamas war
ru → en

Konstantin Eggert

And he hopes to shout to the Germans in this way, hoping that they will move this train and get it out of the deadlock. I doubt it. It's "too late to drink Borjomi". About Putin and his attempts to launch Nord Stream 2 and other efforts to push his interests in Europe.
Expected
#Gas #Russia #Europe #Economy #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Pavel Zavalny

I am just sure that we will see completely different prices — oil at $200, and gas at $4,000-5,000 per thousand cubic meters, and so on. The decisions being made are still leading to an escalation of the situation.
Expected
#Economy #Gas #Oil #Russia
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

But of course, this will eventually happen, if not today, then tomorrow. The introduction of a price cap on Russian gas.
Expected
#Gas #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Mikhail Khodorkovsky

At the very least, these will be the funds that were blocked from the Russian Federation and Putin's entourage. And most likely, this money will go towards the reconstruction of Ukraine.
Expected
#Russia #Putin #War in Ukraine #Economy
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I believe that they will reach the point of confiscating frozen assets. I think this will happen in both Europe and America as well... I believe that large-scale confiscations may begin by the start of next year. Frozen Russian assets.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Economy #Europe #USA
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

In the end, it’s heading toward their confiscation. Referring to the 300 billion in frozen Russian assets.
Expected
#Russia #Economy
ru → en

Iliya Kusa

Some gas is being pumped through the Ukrainian gas transportation system... Nothing prevents Russia from simply stopping it. I think that is what will happen.
Expected
#Gas #Ukraine #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vladislav Inozemtsev

The dollar is the most important tool for stabilizing the global financial system... I think that for the next 20 years, nothing will change significantly. In the next 20 years, the dollar will remain the most important element of the global financial system, and its role will not change significantly.
Expected December 31, 2044
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

The process of nationalization will begin... The share of the private sector will decrease, while the share of the public sector will increase. Gradually, the share of assets under direct government control will grow... This will be a gradual approach to the economy of North Korea... There will be more mechanisms for regulated distribution of food... It won't happen very quickly, but this is a clear trend on the horizon of 10-15 years.
Expected December 31, 2039
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Mikhail Khazin

They are already experiencing a powerful economic downturn. It's been ongoing for three years. It began in the fall of 2021, and it will continue for another 5-8 years. Referring to the U.S.
Expected December 31, 2032
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

Right now, renting is more advantageous. Buying an apartment doesn’t make sense at the moment. Prices won’t drop. The real estate market cools down very slowly... It takes 5-7 years for the real estate market to cool off, so prices aren’t going to fall.
Expected December 31, 2031
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

John McAfee

That bank statement is gonna disappear that there won't be any banks in ten years. Banks will be replaced by cryptocurrencies.
Expected December 31, 2030
#Cryptocurrencies #Economy
en

Arthur Hayes

The Doom Loop will usher in $1 million Bitcoin and $10,000 — $20,000 gold by the end of the decade.
Expected January 1, 2030
#Bitcoin #Economy
en

Dmitry Demushkin

As I understand it, sanctions will always be tied to the territories that have been newly acquired. And it’s clear that I don’t see any reason for them to be lifted, even if they sign peace ten times. In other words, we’ll be under sanctions for a very long time. Sanctions against Russia won’t be lifted anytime soon, even if Russia reaches a peace agreement with Ukraine.
Expected December 31, 2029
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy
ru → en

Maria Maksakova

As a result, we will, of course, see a much lower oil price. Under Trump, following Saudi Arabia's joining of the Abraham Accords.
Expected December 31, 2028
#Oil #Economy #Trump
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

The second question is what will happen under Trump with economic policy in the U.S. I actually believe that his policies will lead to very serious problems for the American economy and will slow it down.
Expected December 31, 2028
#USA #Trump #Economy
ru → en

Oleg Itskhoki

We can say with great confidence that taxes will remain low, and the debt will increase significantly in four years. In other words, we will have a substantially larger national debt. This is an issue the next president will have to address, and it will likely be a major debate in the next election. In four years, a significant increase in the U.S. national debt is expected.
Expected November 8, 2028
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Sergey Aleksashenko

So far, I don't see any significant displacement of the dollar from its status as the world's primary reserve currency.
Expected December 31, 2027
#Dollar #Economy
ru → en

Peter Zeihan

Regardless of who wins American presidential election, regardless of who wins in various European elections, both the American and European block have turned very sharply protectionist specifically versus China. So we're probably going to see significant crunches in the trade portfolio of products coming from China very very soon. What we've seen with the electric vehicles is really only the beginning.
Expected December 31, 2027
#European Union #USA #China #Economy
en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

And now, under the conditions of sanctions, isolation from the world, all negative factors such as demographic challenges, the labor market, lack of investments, and resources, Russia is simply doomed to a catastrophe. An economic catastrophe.
Expected December 31, 2026
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Yurii Romanenko

A major global economic crisis is approaching, likely next year.
Expected December 31, 2026
#Economy
ru → en

Peter Schiff

We are going to have massive inflation regardless of who wins the election.
Expected December 31, 2026
#USA #Economy
en

Michael Saylor

In the next 4 years, Bitcoin will rise above its peak value of $69,000. Indirect quote
Expected September 21, 2026
#Bitcoin #Economy
en

Sergey Auslender

It seems to me that Trump will start by crashing oil prices, working to bring them down in order to take away Putin's main advantage—money.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Trump #Oil #Economy #Russia #USA
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

The problem is that, apparently, it’s not only the price of oil that will decrease, but also practically all the commodities Russia sells. Therefore, Russia’s financial outlook is not good.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

That’s a highly unlikely scenario for the rate to be 15% next year. Aliens are more likely to arrive. In response to: "By the start of the second quarter... they might start lowering the rate, maybe even to 15% in 2025. What do you think of that?" (Referring to Russia's key interest rate)
Expected December 31, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

I think it will gradually increase. I don’t know to what levels exactly; it will all depend on how much Putin spends and prints unbacked money. But that the dollar rate will rise is absolutely certain. The ruble-to-dollar exchange rate.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Ruble #Dollar #Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy
ru → en