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Predictions and promises monitor

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Mark Feygin

Lawyer, blogger (Russia)

Predictions
131
Verified
57
Came true
88%
Complex
40%
Confident
44%
Rating
7.19
All Expected Expected soon New results

Mark Feygin

They say that all efforts are being focused on arranging a new meeting between Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky. And I think such a meeting will most likely take place.
Expected
#Trump #Zelensky #USA #Ukraine
ru → en

Mark Feygin

As for foreign agents and these new legislative measures, this is certain, it’s 100%. I’ve said many times that foreign agents will be stripped of their citizenship, and I have no doubt about it. (In Russia.)
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

If British and American troops are indeed deployed there under an international UN mandate, you understand that they will never leave—they’ll dig trenches, settle in, and so on, whether in blue helmets or any other color. Moscow will never agree to this. Moscow will not accept a truce in the Ukraine war that involves a neutral buffer zone controlled by British forces.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #United Kingdom #USA
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I believe that at least until the inauguration, nothing will happen. Everything will continue as it is. There will be no ceasefire in the war in Ukraine until Trump’s inauguration.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Deploying weapons in space, creating manned and unmanned space bases, and so on. Putting weapons into space is inevitable, unavoidable. This isn’t a science fiction novel; this is real life on Earth.
Expected
#Space #Science and technology
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Right now, such a strike would be an unnecessary setback for Iran in the current context. Such a strike might even benefit Trump, who is fiercely opposed to Iran... I would say with a high degree of probability that there won’t be a strong response at this time. They may put on a show for appearance’s sake. The fact is, Iran itself and its proxies are in a state of disarray after all these Israeli strikes. Iran is unlikely to deliver a powerful strike on Israel despite the heightened rhetoric.
Expected
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Iran will soon get this bomb with the help of North Korea and Moscow. I think they will acquire nuclear weapons unless Israel carries out preemptive strikes.
Expected
#Iran #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Mark Feygin

The ruling party in Georgia is "Georgian Dream," a puppet pro-Moscow party... My prediction is that Moscow is certainly involved and is participating in the election process in Georgia, which will take place on the 26th. They will rig the elections, that’s for sure. And most likely, Moscow will also take part in forcefully defending the rigged election results, ensuring that Georgian Dream remains in power.
Expected
#Georgia #Elections #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I don’t believe in any organized protest, for the simple reason that I don’t see any political forces capable of it. There used to be, but not anymore... That’s why I don’t believe in any mass and organized protest now, under the conditions of war. Ukraine will not face major internal protests or political destabilization during the current war.
Expected
#Ukraine
ru → en

Mark Feygin

There won't be a long, protracted war with Moscow... Everything will be resolved in the coming years. I'm not saying one year; I'm saying years—one, two, three. It will be settled soon, not in some long, drawn-out conflict on a distant horizon. The war in Ukraine will not last for decades and will be resolved in the next few years, within one to three years.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

China plans to take over Taiwan by any means necessary, including military action, if the situation is safe for them—meaning if it can be done without consequences, such as no interference from the United States. Under what circumstances would that be possible? It's quite obvious: if Ukraine loses, if the West abandons it. If the West gives up on Ukraine and it loses the war, China will take over Taiwan.
Expected
#Taiwan #China #Ukraine #USA
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I'm confident, and I predict that Putin will intervene and resolve the issue, and everything will collapse in an instant. We'll see a smiling Kerimov and Kadyrov, wearing expensive sunglasses, hugging and kissing, saying, "That's it, we've agreed, everything is fine. We get 30 percent, he gets 70 percent. We're respectable people."
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

For peace and the start of negotiations, there must be at least Moscow's agreement to retreat from the remaining parts of Ukraine that they haven’t occupied. Can you imagine that? I can’t. The idea of Putin giving up Kyiv and 80 percent of Ukraine is unimaginable to me. So far, I don’t see any signs that Putin is willing to abandon his strategic goal.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Putin
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I don’t think so. The inertia of the war over the next three months will carry it into next year. For the war to truly come to an end, we need radical solutions—either towards peace or towards further escalation. But those radical solutions are not there; we don’t see them. Response to the question: "Do you feel that the hot phase of the war might end this year?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

On November 5th, Trump wins, and then what? He thinks he can talk to Putin and resolve everything. That’s not true; he won’t solve anything. If Trump wins the elections, he won’t be able to stop the war in Ukraine just by calling Putin, as he has promised.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Putin #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Mark Feygin

In Tajikistan, there will be a dynastic system. It will repeat what happened in Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan.
Expected
#Tajikistan
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Biden stated today that he considers Israel's retaliatory strikes against Iran, particularly on nuclear facilities, to be impractical... It seems that one can predict that this strike will occur right after the holiday ends. There are no grounds to think that it will be canceled. However, it will not be a large-scale operation; rather, it will be targeted strikes on selected objectives, military targets, and possibly energy infrastructure facilities. But regarding the nuclear facilities, it is unclear whether Israel will decide to act. In my opinion, no. Israel will soon strike Iran, but not on nuclear facilities.
Expected
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Moscow does not want to participate in any peace summits and will not participate in the second summit; it will not participate, even as an observer. It will not participate.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Mark Feygin

But still, it seems more realistic to me that, when considering the context of a nuclear response or an attempt at nuclear blackmail, it is more likely that they will conduct nuclear tests on Novaya Zemlya... This is more likely. Why? Because the level of control over the situation there is much higher. This will have an effect on the West. None on Ukraine.
Expected
#Nuclear weapons #Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Mark Feygin

In this business, once everything is divided up, there won’t be any Bakalchuks left—that’s obvious too. Referring to Wildberries.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I predict that, in the end, Putin will step in as an arbitrator and somehow divide this business between the disputing parties. Wildberries.
Expected
#Russia #Putin
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Attempting to assassinate Donald Trump is an outrageous thing... they have arrested the shooter... it is clear that he will face severe responsibility, he will be convicted and, apparently, given a very long sentence.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Clearly, but it is unlikely that he will get it. Ryabkov is clearly aiming for Lavrov's position.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Most likely, Mongolia will be withdrawn from the International Criminal Court. I think this will happen, perhaps not all at once... and most likely, Mongolia will be excluded from the Rome Statute.
Expected
#Mongolia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I believe with a high degree of certainty that Durov will grant access to Telegram. While in custody, Durov will agree to cooperate with the French law enforcement system, and let's be frank, with the French means with the American and all the others
Expected
#Internet #Censorship #France #Russia #Durov #Telegram
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I think that there won't be enough time for any peace process to begin by the end of the year. This is more likely a question for next year.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I will make a prediction that, most likely, the niqabs will not be banned. In the context of the discussions these days about banning niqabs in Russia.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

She will never be a foreign agent. Ksenia Sobchak.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

If such incredible steps were taken to admit Ukraine into NATO, the war would likely end much sooner rather than escalate to a new level. If Ukraine is accepted into NATO, the war will end, not intensify.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #NATO #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

This summer, the 75th anniversary summit of NATO's founding will take place in Washington. Why shouldn't old Trump, in his 90s, consider that he might not have another term as president... Mark Feygin misspoke: it’s not Trump, but Biden. Since this NATO summit is taking place under Biden, and Trump is not yet in his 90s
Completely came true
#Biden #USA #2024 United States presidential election
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I believe the conflict in Israel will come to an end. I mean in southern Israel, in the Gaza Strip. I think they will deal with Hamas... it will be over in January-February, there will be no difference. But when they say that they will be fighting for years – that won't happen.
Did not come true
#Israel-Hamas war #Israel #Hamas #Gaza
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Although I think it will be avoided, it won't happen, at least not in the near future. Referring to the possible resignation of Zaluzhny
Did not come true
#Ukraine #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I don't see any prospects for him in his new role. I don't see any political quality. Arestovich has no prospects in politics.
Expected
#Ukraine
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I think negotiations are underway regarding the hostages... I believe that this will not be successful. Hamas will not release these people. They will not release them.
Expected
#Israel-Hamas war #Hamas #Israel
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Because in December, the question of Georgia’s candidacy for EU membership will be decided. And the chances are zero.
Completely came true
#Georgia #European Union
ru → en

Mark Feygin

The governor of the Belgorod region… he will definitely be removed, 100% Referring to Vyacheslav Gladkov.
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I think that Prigozhin will most likely announce the creation of a party
Cannot be verified
#Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I tend to think that they will ultimately imprison him. About Yevgeny Roizman.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

In my opinion, it is unlikely that a forceful scenario can be avoided... The issue of Moldova will be resolved by force. I do not see a possibility for Moscow to voluntarily withdraw its contingent back to Russia... that is out of the question. Referring to Transnistria.
Expected
#Moldova #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Stoltenberg will stay until September, and there is a very high probability that he will be replaced by Boris Johnson. As NATO Secretary General.
Did not come true
#NATO
ru → en

Mark Feygin

What is the year 2024? It's the elections in America in November. As for Ukraine, I don't know if they will be postponed or not... most likely, they will be held in some way.
Expected
#Ukraine #Elections
ru → en

Mark Feygin

He will return, I am sure. Ivan Urgant will return to Russia.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Still, sooner or later, we will have to get rid of Shoigu.
Completely came true
#Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I think that is most likely how it will be. One battery will probably be transferred as a trial. Regarding the USA transferring the Patriot system to Ukraine
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA
ru → en

Mark Feygin

And I think they will make him a deputy. Viktor Bout will be made a deputy from the LDPR
Completely came true
#Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I think they definitely won't reach an agreement there... There is no benefit for Ukraine in this. About the transportation of grain from Ukraine through Belarus.
Completely came true
#Ukraine #Belarus
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Most likely, he will leave. Probably to Israel. Unlikely to Russia. Mikhail Fridman
Partially came true
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I believe they will most likely be added to the list of terrorist organizations. Wagner Group.
Completely came true
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I think humanity will most likely go down this path. Regarding the creation of a new organization instead of the UN, which will include not all countries of the world, but those that share certain Western values.
Expected
#UN
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I believe that they will reach the point of confiscating frozen assets. I think this will happen in both Europe and America as well... I believe that large-scale confiscations may begin by the start of next year. Frozen Russian assets.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Economy #Europe #USA
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Moscow will also prepare for an offensive. And most likely, with a high degree of probability, it will be in the north. The north of Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en