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I don’t think Ukraine will give up all four regions, of course. In response to the question: "Will Ukraine agree to give up all four regions in exchange for peace and security guarantees?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

It is already clear that Trump will not sign anything with Zelensky (well, let’s leave a 1-2 percent chance for an extreme scenario—though an alien arrival seems like a slightly more likely scenario).
#Trump #Zelensky #USA #Ukraine #War in Ukraine

But the real issue of the conflict is the lack of security guarantees that Zelensky is demanding—guarantees that neither Trump, nor Vance, nor Biden, nor anyone else can provide. There will never be security guarantees… Security guarantees are impossible in this situation. They will not happen, not ever, under any circumstances.
#Ukraine #USA #War in Ukraine

Trump's mistake was underestimating Zelensky and broadcasting that conversation. The Europeans outplayed the Americans. The war will continue for a long time—at least until 2028. The war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA

As for Arestovych’s future, my prediction is quite simple—he will disappear without a trace, and endless expeditions will search for him in the depths of the Amazon…
#Ukraine

I think that, of course, one of the outcomes of these processes will be Zelensky’s departure in one way or another.
#Zelensky #Ukraine

No, it will not end—it may pause or simply come to a halt. The war cannot end as long as Putin is in the Kremlin. It will continue in one form or another. Even if it stops in Ukraine, then Georgia, Armenia, Moldova, and possibly Kazakhstan should prepare. In response to the question: "Do you think the war will end in 2025?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

I don't really understand whether this deal can actually be implemented or not. And I have serious doubts that it will even start working before the end of Donald Trump's presidential term. (The deal between the U.S. and Ukraine on rare earth metals.)
#USA #Ukraine #Economy

He will not achieve peace with Moscow because he cannot make such a peace at Ukraine’s expense. He cannot. That is not what he promised, that is not what is expected of him, and he does not have the authority to do so. Trump.
#Trump #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia

Remember this tweet. It contains the rules and outlines of the new world. Everything stated below has already been decided and will be announced soon. A Ukraine Reconstruction Fund will be established, with the U.S., Russia, and China as its shareholders. The initial capital will consist of $40 billion from the U.S., $40 billion from Russia, and $20 billion from China. Later, this Fund will absorb $350 billion from Russia (frozen assets), while the U.S. considers that it has already contributed $350 billion (this is the exact figure Trump mentioned). But that’s not all. Over time, the U.S. will contribute another $350 billion, China—around $200 billion, along with additional contributions from the royal dynasties of the Persian Gulf. The total size of the Fund is expected to reach $1 trillion.
#Ukraine #USA #Russia #China #War in Ukraine

Therefore, I believe that out of a sense of self-preservation, Europe will ultimately continue to support Ukraine. It has no other choice.
#Ukraine #European Union #War in Ukraine

Despite the negotiations in Riyadh, it is obvious that any kind of peace or ceasefire is still far off.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

There is no hope that the negotiations scheduled in Saudi Arabia will lead to talks about a real solution to the military problem—that is, ending the war in the very heart of Europe.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Saudi Arabia

And most likely, indeed, if the war continues further, a second wave of mobilization will be inevitable. They are functionally fully prepared for it; the only thing left will be to somehow mitigate the political risks. In Russia.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

The elections will take place this year. In Ukraine.
#Ukraine #Elections

As for the possible end of the war, I have a very clear position on this issue—as an expert, as a political scientist, a scholar in the field of political science. I see no prerequisites whatsoever, absolutely none, in any format, that would indicate a trend toward ending the war. The war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

There are currently rumors about a ceasefire being introduced on Easter, April 20, which is in two months. I have almost no doubt that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will hold the Kursk front until then. This means that Putin will have to trade the Kursk region for something else.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

My main demand is that America must apologize for proposing that we sign this predatory agreement, for attempting to rob us at a crucial moment. I was genuinely outraged by the White House representative's words. I believe that America will have to apologize for this. The U.S. will apologize to Ukraine for proposing the resource extraction agreement in the form it was presented during the Munich Conference in February 2025.
#USA #Ukraine

By summer, I believe Germany will step up and significantly increase its support for Ukraine, especially if the Americans do not resume their aid.
#Germany #Ukraine #War in Ukraine

Putin will not remove himself. This means that the war will return at some point— in four years when Trump is no longer in office.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

We suffered a diplomatic defeat even before the negotiations began—that's a fact. As for what this will lead to, whether the war will continue or not—I have my own particular opinion on this, which I have already expressed. I believe that at the very least, there will still be a spring-summer campaign, and the fighting will continue. After that, we’ll see.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Well, there is still a feeling that in 2025, at the very least, the shooting will stop. Speaking about the war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Zaluzhny will become president.
#Ukraine

Most likely, Zelensky will resign this year.
#Ukraine #Zelensky

I am more than certain, and I am ready to compare the results later, that by the end of 2025, no matter what anyone writes or spreads, the war will not end. The war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

This is related to the anticipation of the presidential elections in Ukraine. It is already clear that the elections will take place within the next six months at most.
#Ukraine #Elections

DeepState focuses on the situation in Zaporizhzhia—referring to a village on the western flank of the Pokrovsk direction, not the city of the same name, which Russian forces have not yet reached and most likely never will.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

The elections in Ukraine are now obviously going to happen, but something tells me that Zelensky’s main problem is not Poroshenko at all. Rather, it is his increasingly apparent unsuitability for this position—both for Trump and for Putin. All parties involved in the deal would prefer to see someone as president of Ukraine who has made no prior commitments, has never called anyone a murderer, and has not made hundreds of other statements that are now awkward for the high-level negotiating sides. So, I would bet that Zelensky will either lose the election or suddenly decide not to run, so as not to cast a shadow over the brave new world.
#Ukraine #Zelensky #Elections

Ukraine must count on the fact that the world will never recognize this annexation. As for the statements that the defense minister said there can be no return to 2014—I’m sorry, but your president also said that today we cannot, we do not have the capabilities for that. But the defense minister did not say that they recognize this as Russian territory. That will not happen, you can be sure of it—that will never happen. Neither Donald Trump, nor his defense minister, nor any congressman or senator will ever say this out loud.
#Ukraine #USA #War in Ukraine #Trump

I am sure that it will. In response to the question: "Will the war stop, as some say, by the middle of this year or not?" (The war in Ukraine)
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Such a deal format proposed by Trump, to me, is a clear indication that the United States will have a commercial interest in Ukraine maintaining control over its eastern regions. When will the specific outlines of the plan appear? It's hard to say. But I assume it will be before April. By April, this plan will likely be in place and probably made public.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA

I have not the slightest doubt that after Trump's meeting with Putin, he will simply adopt Putin's plan and program exactly as it is. I have absolutely no doubt about this.
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #War in Ukraine #Ukraine

I do not believe that there will be any real negotiations in the coming months. So far, I do not see any leverage over Putin.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Putin

I do not believe in a near-term resolution of the issue of peace. I do not even believe in a near-term resolution of the issue of a meeting between Trump and Putin.
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Putin #Russia #Ukraine #USA

The situation is gradually moving toward a scenario where, in 2025, if the war does not end, a very serious battle for air superiority will likely begin in the skies over Ukraine and, most likely, over Russia.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

The Kremlin’s very demand for negotiations with the legitimate Ukrainian government creates yet another closed loop. On one hand, the Americans agree to hold elections after a ceasefire. On the other hand, it is impossible to sign even a temporary ceasefire agreement with anyone other than Zelensky, and holding elections before a ceasefire is also not an option. This creates yet another kind of trap, from which I currently see no way out. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that the war will continue for the next several months.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA

I absolutely do not believe that Putin will agree to stop seeking official recognition from Ukraine and its Western allies of the so-called realities on the ground. That Putin would accept a peace agreement in which he continues to de facto control these captured territories, but no one except him officially recognizes these seizures.
#War in Ukraine #Putin #Ukraine #Russia

In the next six months, yes. 100%. That’s my prediction. In the coming six months, the Russian army will definitely not capture Pokrovsk. In response to the question: "Will Ukraine be able to defend Pokrovsk?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Zelensky will not run for a second term.
#Zelensky #Ukraine #Elections

But at the moment, NATO seems to be an unattainable goal for us for the next 10-20 years. For Ukraine.
#Ukraine #NATO

The most likely course of Russia-U.S. negotiations: a forecast attempt. 1. The U.S. and Russia are not ready to reach a compromise on Ukraine. 2. This is why the phone conversation between Putin and Trump has been delayed for so long—there needs to be a result, but there isn't one yet. 3. The conversation will take place soon. They will agree on a summit and a working group. 4. The summit will take place in the spring. However, there will still be no compromise on Ukraine. 5. However, a crucial compromise will be reached—de-escalation in terms of nuclear conflict. Trump will present this as a huge victory. 6. There will be a pause in negotiations on the Ukraine conflict, discussions will continue in a closed format, while military actions will also persist. 7. Trump will cut U.S. funding for Ukraine by about three times—from $300 billion to $100 billion—and will push Europe to contribute more, up to $200 billion. Europe will not increase its contributions. 8. In the spring, summer, and fall, everything will continue as it is. 9. By autumn, political conditions for negotiations will take shape: Europe's and Ukraine’s fatigue will force them to make more concessions to Russia. 10. Thus, by the end of the year, or possibly even in the fall, a peace agreement will be signed.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Trump

It is obvious that in a month or two, the special military operation will end and peace will come.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Even if Trump completely turns his back on Ukraine, even if American aid is entirely cut off, Europe—at least France, the UK, Germany, the Scandinavian countries, and Poland—will not abandon their support for Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Europe #France #United Kingdom #Germany #Poland

If the pace of the offensive does not change—and, generally speaking, I personally see no reason to believe it will, referring to the Russian offensive—then, in the foreseeable future, meaning within a few months, it is clear that Putin will not achieve one of his most politically significant goals. In the coming months, the Russian army will not push the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of the Kursk region.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

One accurate prediction can be made: Trump's ceasefire proposal will not work in 24 hours, 100 days, or 3 months. Because Putin has already clearly stated what he wants. He wants conditions that severely limit Ukraine’s sovereignty, restrict its ability to make independent decisions in foreign and defense policy, and give him the opportunity at any moment, within a few months, to repeat his aggression under the pretext of Russia’s security guarantees.
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Putin #Ukraine #Russia

From my point of view, the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada will never vote for any document even remotely resembling the Budapest Memorandum or the Minsk Agreements.
#Ukraine

He may play it in such a way that Zelensky himself will be blamed, but there may be no deal. There could be a deal, but it won’t result in peace, a peace treaty. Instead, the conflict will continue for another six months to a year, followed by the collapse of the front. Response to the question: "Trump won't get his deal?"
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Trump

Trump has appointed a special representative for Ukraine and given him 100 days. This means there will be no meeting for at least 100 days, as during this time, the representative will be searching for a solution. If Trump ever meets with Putin, it certainly won’t be for negotiations or to discuss any details. No, by then, a finalized solution will already be on the table—just waiting to be signed. There will be no meeting between Trump and Putin in the next 100 days.
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine #Ukraine

If you are willing to consider my expertise on Ukrainian politics, then my forecast is yes—the matter will end in the coming weeks with the resignation of the Minister of Defense and their replacement with a new one.
#Ukraine

I myself understand that this is a war for many years. Remember, I have been saying this non-stop for the last three years. War in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I believe that this year the fighting in Ukraine will continue, unfortunately. I could be wrong.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

It seems that within the coming months, a rotten compromise will be reached, which will please neither side... but it is far better than senseless and merciless bloodshed. Speaking about the war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

And what will happen to Ukraine? Ukraine will lose a third of its territory, it will be fully controlled by the Russian Federation. And foreign troops will be stationed on the territory of Ukraine. And Ukraine will never be, never be in NATO.
#Ukraine #NATO

I agree with you that the war will likely continue through 2025-2026. It will probably last these two years for sure. I also don’t expect it to end very quickly. The war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I think it will last for a very long time because the one in charge of this situation is very reluctant to admit defeat. I believe it will continue until a way is found to resolve this conflict in such a way that the main instigator of this war doesn’t lose face. In response to: "Lyudmila Yevgenyevna, what do you think? How and when will this war end?" (referring to the war in Ukraine).
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Well, maybe "convinced" is too strong a word. But I do think, I feel, that the war won’t end. There might be a truce, but it would definitely be the kind of truce that wouldn’t close the door to war. In response to: "Let’s turn to the war then. You said you were convinced that in 2025 this war wouldn’t end, not in any way" (referring to the war in Ukraine).
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Ukraine has suffered from aggression. The assessment of what Russia has done will not change... The consequences of territorial annexations will not be recognized until the end of the 21st century. This is obvious. In the coming decades, no one will agree that this is acceptable or that it can align with international law.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

There won’t be a resolution for a very long time, and a just peace won’t come for years. Even if some kind of contact line is established, it will remain frozen for 10-15 years, leaving the next generation of politicians to decide what will happen between Russia and Ukraine. No illusions are needed.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

It’s unlikely that Chasiv Yar will be captured within the next week, but it can no longer be said with certainty that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will hold the city. After the turning point a couple of weeks ago, it became clear that Chasiv Yar will also be abandoned—sooner or later, but inevitably.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

In practice, there will be a Korean scenario with a freezing of hostilities along the front line, as I see no alternatives to this. Speaking about the war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Of course, it will. Just not now and not through military action anymore. At this point, the war is unlikely to shift in such a way that Crimea can be reclaimed militarily. But through diplomacy, Ukraine will undoubtedly regain it sooner or later. In response to the question: "Will Ukraine get Crimea back?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Abramovich would rather wait for Ukraine when it comes to rebuilding. I can bet anything with you that Abramovich will be the main figure in Ukraine's reconstruction—just wait and see. In response to the question: "The residents of Saratov will pay for a sister city in Gaza. Why not Abramovich?"
#Ukraine #Russia

No, I don’t think so. He won’t be able to. In response to the question: "Do you think Trump can stop the war in Ukraine?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA

If Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, key logistical hubs, are captured, it would pave the way toward Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, two major urban agglomerations in the Donetsk region. However, I doubt that the Russian army has any realistic chance of achieving this large-scale plan by the end of this year. These urban agglomerations cover a vast area, and fighting for them would take a long time.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia