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Predictions and promises monitor

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#Ukraine

Authors
191
Predictions
794
Verified
282
Came true
62%
Complex
58%
Confident
51%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Mikhail Fishman

If we set aside the possibility of negotiations, which are likely to fail anyway, it will once again become apparent that the Russian army is advancing, and the Ukrainian army cannot effectively counter it.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Dmitry Shchiglik

As for Crimea, well, we shouldn’t forget about it, but during our lifetime, it’s not going anywhere from Russia—that’s clear.
Expected
#Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

I don’t believe in Putin’s ability to negotiate. I believe that Trump will do all the work, that he will go through the entire process. Yes, he will formulate peace proposals. Yes, he will bring some representatives of Ukraine and Russia to the table—not the presidents, not Zelensky or Putin. And then Putin will start his sabotage. Because Putin has no intention of ending the war, and he doesn’t need any peace agreement.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Putin #Trump #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

They say that all efforts are being focused on arranging a new meeting between Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky. And I think such a meeting will most likely take place.
Expected
#Trump #Zelensky #USA #Ukraine
ru → en

Alfred Koch

So, in the next couple of months, we will see some very important events on the front. Significant events that could impact the course of the war in Ukraine and potentially lead to the lifting of martial law.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

I think if it happens, it will be next year. They haven’t reached Pokrovsk yet. In response to the question: "When do you think the assault on Pokrovsk will take place?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Julian Roepcke

Everyone understands perfectly well that Russia will not stop there. Russia will go further. No one will say, “We’ve reached the borders of the areas annexed in 2022, and that’s it, we’ll stop here.” No, they’ll come up with some pretext, saying a buffer zone is needed or something else. That’s precisely why Ukrainians are now actively building new lines of fortifications in both the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
en

Roman Tsymbaliuk

Yes, I agree with you. In response to: "Military actions will not stop within three months... a freeze (in the war in Ukraine) is not in store for us in the next three months."
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

Military actions will not stop within three months, because all these scenarios we’re running through in our heads will also be running through the minds of decision-makers in Washington, Moscow, and Kyiv. Since there are still no solutions that satisfy everyone, I can firmly say that a freeze is not in store for us in the next three months.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Lev Schlosberg

Peace negotiations are still years, perhaps even decades, away. Right now, it’s impossible to put peace talks on the agenda. No one—neither Ukraine nor Russia—will engage in such negotiations. The only thing that can be done now is to agree to stop killing people.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

If British and American troops are indeed deployed there under an international UN mandate, you understand that they will never leave—they’ll dig trenches, settle in, and so on, whether in blue helmets or any other color. Moscow will never agree to this. Moscow will not accept a truce in the Ukraine war that involves a neutral buffer zone controlled by British forces.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #United Kingdom #USA
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

There will be a peace plan from the Americans, from Trump’s team. They will offer it to Putin. And then there are two scenarios: Putin more or less agrees, or he more or less refuses. I’m betting that he will more or less refuse, meaning I’m betting that there won’t be a truce in this format. But that’s just my guess.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Lev Schlosberg

Write it down. Open it 50 years from now, and you’ll see that I was right. Ukraine will never achieve a military victory over Russia. Never. And Russia will not achieve a military victory over Ukraine. Thousands and thousands of people will die.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

There will be no peace in the near future. At least, I’ll be very glad if I’m wrong. Speaking about a truce between Ukraine and Russia.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

It will remain occupied at first, but then we will definitely take it back, reclaim it, no question about it—there’s no other way. Sooner or later, Crimea will certainly be part of Ukraine.
Expected
#Ukraine
ru → en

Mikhail Veller

If he didn’t provide them before, he won’t provide them now. Joe Biden is unlikely to change his approach and will not give Ukraine long-range missiles.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Biden #USA #Ukraine
ru → en

Maria Snegovaya

This is not advantageous for Putin at the moment. The situation on the front is good for him, and there is a threat to Ukraine that he will push further in the near future. But if such a freeze is reached, it will most likely be temporary because the U.S., Europe, and the West as a whole cannot provide Ukraine with a long-term security guarantee today.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Roman Goncharenko

I think there will be an attempt to reallocate funding; in other words, Trump will ask the Europeans to pay more, but I don’t think he’ll actually stop military aid. Lend-Lease is indeed an option that will be used. The Biden administration hasn’t really used this Lend-Lease mechanism—selling weapons rather than giving them. I think Trump will make use of it.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #USA
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I believe that at least until the inauguration, nothing will happen. Everything will continue as it is. There will be no ceasefire in the war in Ukraine until Trump’s inauguration.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Nickolay Kapitonenko

It seems to me that this is more of a rhetorical trick, and to actually end the Russia-Ukraine war, not just in 24 hours but even within a few months, will be practically impossible. Trump might try, but the question is, at what cost, and not everything here will depend on him.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA
ru → en

Yevgeny Popov

I think that even before January, Trump will offer Russia an obviously unfavorable deal regarding Ukraine, which we will, of course, reject. Donald will shrug and, in his usual manner, announce an unprecedented aid package for the Zelensky regime and the lifting of all restrictions on missiles.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Ian Matveev

I think that both before and after the New Year, the Ukrainian Kursk bridgehead will hold. And in the spring, more or less when all the mud has dried up, it could potentially be fully retaken with significant efforts from the Russian military.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Arti Green

There will be no just peace. It will be a compromise between justice and injustice, because the Western coalition is not inclined to push this conflict to the point of nuclear escalation. Therefore, they do not plan a military defeat of the Russian Federation. Some agreement will be reached, and I am confident it will happen, as the President of the United States has the leverage to achieve it. Knowing Donald Trump, I can say that he will likely reach this agreement fairly quickly. Regarding an agreement between Russia and Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Denis Leven

The likelihood of negotiations right now honestly seems rather low, because, for example, it doesn’t appear particularly advantageous for Russia to even sit down for talks at the moment, as what is currently happening in Donbas can be characterized as a success for the Russian army.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

So it’s most likely that this decision, if it is made—and I think it will be—will be made in February of next year. Talking about U.S. authorization for Ukraine to strike Russian territory with long-range missiles.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Sergey Grabskiy

Absolutely not. Absolutely not, because with the current pace of advance that we’re seeing, I virtually rule out such a possibility in the near future—at least for the next six months. In response to the question: "Could there be a threat to any regional centers in Ukraine?" (Will the Russian army be able to take any regional centers in Ukraine?)
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Konstantin Sonin

I am confident that Russia will, for many years—decades even—have to pay compensation for the destroyed Ukrainian cities, industries, and energy systems, and will have to make significant concessions to return to international trade and cooperate with other countries, at least partially. This will happen under any American administration, there’s no doubt about it.
Expected
#Russia #Ukraine #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Konstantin Sonin

I am confident that Russia will have to withdraw its troops from the occupied territories of Ukraine... This will happen under any American administration, there’s no doubt about it.
Expected
#Russia #Ukraine #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Dmitry Oreshkin

Remember, back in August, Alaudinov, a Chechen general, said that the war would be over in 2-3 months. No, it won’t end; it will drag on for a long time. The war in Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Oleksandr Kharebin‬

As of today, and for the next few weeks or months, I don’t see any possibility of North Korean soldiers being present in Ukraine... Any clash between the Ukrainian army and North Koreans will take place on Russian territory, not on Ukrainian territory. This is an important point, and I want to emphasize it.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #North Korea #Russia
ru → en

Dmitry Medvedev

A somewhat weary Trump, spouting clichés like “I’ll offer a deal” and “I have great relationships with...,” will also be forced to follow all the system’s rules. He won’t be able to stop the war. Not in a day, not in three days, not in three months. And if he genuinely tries, he might end up like JFK. Trump will not be able to stop the war in Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Chingiz Mamedov

I don’t see quick solutions. Trump, of course, is now saying that it’s very simple—he’ll tell Zelensky one thing, he’ll tell Putin another, and they’ll be forced to agree with him... I don’t think that even if Trump is elected, this issue will be resolved that quickly.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA
ru → en

Pavel Sebastyanovich

As for joining the EU and NATO, that will never happen. We just have to accept it—it will never happen. As long as this government is in place and this policy continues, it will never happen. Speaking about Ukraine.
Expected
#Ukraine #European Union #NATO
ru → en

Pavel Sebastyanovich

There will be no elections in 2025. Because those in power are very comfortable right now: they receive salaries, go to work, get fake pensions, and nothing threatens them. Speaking about Ukraine.
Expected
#Ukraine #Elections
ru → en

Mykhailo Podolyak

In my view, the policy of the next president will be exactly the same as it is today, though perhaps with more or less intensity in support... Both Republicans and Democrats understand that this war is not only about territories in the eastern part of the European continent; it is not only about the territory of Ukraine. Regardless of who becomes the next U.S. president, their policy of supporting Ukraine will remain unchanged.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

I thought that the most likely development of the Russia-Ukraine conflict would be a shift toward a Korean scenario. But it seems the situation will more likely resemble the Israel-Palestine conflict, where there are periodic meetings, consultations, negotiations, and peace agreements, followed by Nobel Peace Prizes. After that, everyone starts killing each other again. And, as you understand, this has been going on for almost 80 years. Relying on any truces to fundamentally change the situation is no longer possible.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

If we summarize the situation on the front lines, there will only be bad news in the near future... Unfortunately, everything is unfolding according to a negative scenario. In the near future, news from the front lines of the war in Ukraine will be unfavorable for Ukraine's supporters.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Michael Nacke

I think the surprise over North Koreans participating in the war and being used in combat roles will, by the middle of next year, become quite a common story. In other words, we’ll be watching plenty of videos of FPV drones taking down North Koreans.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #North Korea #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Vadim Radionov

I don’t think that anything will change in a global sense immediately after the elections... The U.S. elections are a significant event that shapes future developments. But I don’t believe that once the day has passed and the votes are counted, we’ll wake up in a different world. If things do change, it will happen gradually. In response to the question: "Do you feel that Putin will stop soon after the U.S. elections?" (Implying that Putin will stop the war in Ukraine after the 2024 U.S. presidential election)
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #2024 United States presidential election
ru → en

Vadim Radionov

I don’t share the optimistic predictions that the war will end this year. It seems to me that this process, this momentum that has been set in motion, will last a long time. But maybe a black swan will spread its wings, and it will all end quickly. Speaking about the war in Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Roman Svitan

At some point, we’ll be discussing how many Tomahawks we received, how they’ll be launched, and so on. That’s definitely how it’s going to be. We will get Tomahawks. But it’s important to understand that the Tomahawk itself isn’t a game-changer; it’s a missile that’s already half a century old. Ukraine will eventually receive Tomahawk missiles.
Expected
#Ukraine #USA #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Sergey Grabskiy

From my personal experience communicating with Americans, I get the impression that the U.S. elections will in no way affect the level of combat activity in Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #USA #Ukraine
ru → en

Arti Green

I find it hard to imagine a breakthrough to the right bank of the Oskil River with the establishment of a bridgehead. Referring to Russian troops and the Oskil River in Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Oleksiy Arestovych

I don’t think we will go through with it; I’m a skeptic in this regard. We will continue to escalate and provoke. Since the talks in "Great Yalta" are about reconciliation by the New Year and a ceasefire, I expect some major provocation from our side soon—something intended to disrupt these efforts. He implies that peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are being prepared for before the New Year, and that Ukraine will derail them with a provocation.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

So far, there doesn’t seem to be any sign that the front will collapse. I see no grounds to think a cascading collapse of the front will happen. Nothing currently indicates that outcome. They simply don’t have the forces to make it happen… I believe we’ll continue to see this slow movement with some acceleration. In response to the question: “How do you think events will unfold on the Russia-Ukraine front over the next couple of months?”
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Aleksandr Kochetkov

This is as absurd as the discussions about creating nuclear weapons in Ukraine under current conditions… At this point, developing nuclear weapons is an entirely utopian idea.
Expected
#Ukraine #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

A similar situation is unfolding in Ukraine right now. The choices aren’t great either. Ukraine is slowly moving toward authoritarianism. There’s already a propaganda campaign instead of a free information environment. The security forces are beginning to dominate as well. I think they’ll remove Zelensky from power, and gradually, security forces and intelligence services will start to take control.
Expected
#Zelensky #Ukraine
ru → en