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America itself made China competitive by moving all operations there, relying solely on cheap labor. Now, if it removes this pillar, we’ll see whether the cheap labor of not-very-free people can change anything. My position is no. They will lose to America, and they will fall behind much more significantly than one might imagine.
#USA #China #Economy

I expect a devaluation of the ruble over the May holidays.
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

The more quality assets are replaced by all sorts of paper “wrappers,” the sooner a banking system crisis will occur. But the fact that it will shake this year, and we will see very powerful, sharp moves by the Central Bank to rescue and inject liquidity into the banking system — that’s definitely for this year, 2025.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

Oil would be at $45–47 now. It had already approached $52. It’s clear that the actual transaction prices for Russian oil had already dropped below $50. But Trump lacked the resolve. And a reduction in Russia’s export revenues could have already triggered this devaluation in the very near future. But so far, the price has dropped by a maximum of $12–15. That’s still relatively okay, not bad — but not enough for us to see the devaluation that will happen anyway. It will happen by the end of the year. It will happen in the summer. It could have already started in April. This is about the ruble.
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

There will be public crackdowns on big business... large corporations, banks. There will be a lot of these high-profile attacks, just to shift the blame for what's happening in the economy. But I still expect that at some point — in 2025 — Elvira Nabiullina will have to resign, no matter what. They’ll have to make her the scapegoat.
#Russia #Economy

And where are they going to suddenly get hundreds of billions? They wanted to cut the Pentagon’s budget. Remember, it all started with Vance’s statements — like, “let’s cut Pentagon spending by almost half.” They won’t be allowed to cut the Pentagon’s budget. It’ll be just like with Kennedy.
#USA #Economy

To maintain competitiveness, China will definitely go for a devaluation of the yuan. I’ll bet a bottle of vodka on it.
#China #Yuan #Economy

There are no grounds for the ruble to strengthen. Only a trend toward weakening.
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

If the people of Europe want to live under Putin’s heel, under the heel of this darkness, this fascism, then fine, they can rejoice over cheap gas. But if Europe doesn’t want to live in a prison, in a GULAG, and wants to maintain its independence, then rejecting Russian gas is the only way forward. I have no doubt that sooner or later, Europe will realize this and will block all paths of Russian gas influence over itself.
#Europe #Russia #Gas

And now, under the conditions of sanctions, isolation from the world, all negative factors such as demographic challenges, the labor market, lack of investments, and resources, Russia is simply doomed to a catastrophe. An economic catastrophe.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy