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Vyacheslav Shiryaev

Economic Observer (Russia)

Predictions
15
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1
Came true
0%
Complex
100%
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4.92

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

There is no deal with Trump and there won't be one. I don't expect any new visits from Witkoff to Moscow in the near future; there definitely won't be any.
Expected
#Russia #USA
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

I’m not a Trump buff. But to ignore what Trump actually does—like when he drove oil prices down, and now they’ve been driven up again by an Iranian move—would be foolish. It won’t last long. Prices will fall sooner or later—most likely in early July, though we can’t give exact forecasts; it might be next week, or even this week. Once the confrontation starts to cool, Urals crude will drop below $60.
Expected
#Oil #Economy
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

This is simply a reason for the bulls to push prices up. They managed to do that. This is a temporary phenomenon. I, of course, expect a response from Iran — Shahed drones will fly, they already seem to be flying, missiles will be launched from Iran toward Israel, but I do not expect any catastrophes with oil exports from the Persian Gulf. Therefore, for 2-3 days everything will fluctuate at high levels, and then from Monday everything will drop unless there is some kind of nuclear escalation. Oil prices, which surged due to Israel’s strike on Iran, will start to decline from Monday.
Expected
#Oil #Economy #Iran #Israel
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

America itself made China competitive by moving all operations there, relying solely on cheap labor. Now, if it removes this pillar, we’ll see whether the cheap labor of not-very-free people can change anything. My position is no. They will lose to America, and they will fall behind much more significantly than one might imagine.
Expected
#USA #China #Economy
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

The more quality assets are replaced by all sorts of paper “wrappers,” the sooner a banking system crisis will occur. But the fact that it will shake this year, and we will see very powerful, sharp moves by the Central Bank to rescue and inject liquidity into the banking system — that’s definitely for this year, 2025.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

Oil would be at $45–47 now. It had already approached $52. It’s clear that the actual transaction prices for Russian oil had already dropped below $50. But Trump lacked the resolve. And a reduction in Russia’s export revenues could have already triggered this devaluation in the very near future. But so far, the price has dropped by a maximum of $12–15. That’s still relatively okay, not bad — but not enough for us to see the devaluation that will happen anyway. It will happen by the end of the year. It will happen in the summer. It could have already started in April. This is about the ruble.
Expected
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

There will be public crackdowns on big business... large corporations, banks. There will be a lot of these high-profile attacks, just to shift the blame for what's happening in the economy. But I still expect that at some point — in 2025 — Elvira Nabiullina will have to resign, no matter what. They’ll have to make her the scapegoat.
Expected
#Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

And where are they going to suddenly get hundreds of billions? They wanted to cut the Pentagon’s budget. Remember, it all started with Vance’s statements — like, “let’s cut Pentagon spending by almost half.” They won’t be allowed to cut the Pentagon’s budget. It’ll be just like with Kennedy.
Expected
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

To maintain competitiveness, China will definitely go for a devaluation of the yuan. I’ll bet a bottle of vodka on it.
Expected
#China #Yuan #Economy
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

If the people of Europe want to live under Putin’s heel, under the heel of this darkness, this fascism, then fine, they can rejoice over cheap gas. But if Europe doesn’t want to live in a prison, in a GULAG, and wants to maintain its independence, then rejecting Russian gas is the only way forward. I have no doubt that sooner or later, Europe will realize this and will block all paths of Russian gas influence over itself.
Expected
#Europe #Russia #Gas
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

And now, under the conditions of sanctions, isolation from the world, all negative factors such as demographic challenges, the labor market, lack of investments, and resources, Russia is simply doomed to a catastrophe. An economic catastrophe.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en