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They won't be able to keep the budget deficit under 7-8 trillion, and they won't succeed. They will have so many expenses in December. And they will probably proceed as follows: they will finance part of the expenses not on December 30th, but on January 12th or some other day, and that will give them a breather... And this is the first dangerous game that will undermine the budget, because already in the first quarter, when they start calculating, they will show such a deficit that everyone will be shocked... They will certainly do this; I can practically bet on it. In Russia.
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

Let's not forget about the Novorossiysk port, which I think will become a very important target for Ukraine in September. Let's lock in this prediction of mine. In September, the Novorossiysk port will be in the news precisely in this context.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Oil

I think Turkey will stop buying Russian oil altogether.
#Turkey #Russia #Oil

Well done, you finally did something decisive without waiting for the United States. They will definitely join the sanctions against Russian oil exports, I'm sure—whether it's in September, October, or November, it doesn't matter, but they will join.
#USA #Russia #European Union #Oil

I'm confident the next step will be a ban on artificial intelligence. A ban on everything that, according to Putin, responds to your queries incorrectly.
#Russia #Censorship

In September, when these 50 days are up, it will be clear that no Pokrovsks have been taken, Konstantinovka and Druzhkivka haven't been taken, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk haven't been taken, and there's no buffer zone in the Sumy region.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

There is no deal with Trump and there won't be one. I don't expect any new visits from Witkoff to Moscow in the near future; there definitely won't be any.
#Russia #USA

Russia is not ready for total war. No matter how much Z-supporters demand total mobilization from Putin and the conversion of industry to a war footing, it will never happen.
#Russia #Economy #Economy of Russia #War in Ukraine

I’m not a Trump buff. But to ignore what Trump actually does—like when he drove oil prices down, and now they’ve been driven up again by an Iranian move—would be foolish. It won’t last long. Prices will fall sooner or later—most likely in early July, though we can’t give exact forecasts; it might be next week, or even this week. Once the confrontation starts to cool, Urals crude will drop below $60.
#Oil #Economy

And it seems to me that after Iran, Trump’s rhetoric toward the Kremlin and the war in Ukraine will change very dramatically.
#Trump #Russia #Ukraine #War in Ukraine #Iran

This is simply a reason for the bulls to push prices up. They managed to do that. This is a temporary phenomenon. I, of course, expect a response from Iran — Shahed drones will fly, they already seem to be flying, missiles will be launched from Iran toward Israel, but I do not expect any catastrophes with oil exports from the Persian Gulf. Therefore, for 2-3 days everything will fluctuate at high levels, and then from Monday everything will drop unless there is some kind of nuclear escalation. Oil prices, which surged due to Israel’s strike on Iran, will start to decline from Monday.
#Oil #Economy #Iran #Israel

America itself made China competitive by moving all operations there, relying solely on cheap labor. Now, if it removes this pillar, we’ll see whether the cheap labor of not-very-free people can change anything. My position is no. They will lose to America, and they will fall behind much more significantly than one might imagine.
#USA #China #Economy

I expect a devaluation of the ruble over the May holidays.
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

The more quality assets are replaced by all sorts of paper “wrappers,” the sooner a banking system crisis will occur. But the fact that it will shake this year, and we will see very powerful, sharp moves by the Central Bank to rescue and inject liquidity into the banking system — that’s definitely for this year, 2025.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

Oil would be at $45–47 now. It had already approached $52. It’s clear that the actual transaction prices for Russian oil had already dropped below $50. But Trump lacked the resolve. And a reduction in Russia’s export revenues could have already triggered this devaluation in the very near future. But so far, the price has dropped by a maximum of $12–15. That’s still relatively okay, not bad — but not enough for us to see the devaluation that will happen anyway. It will happen by the end of the year. It will happen in the summer. It could have already started in April. This is about the ruble.
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

There will be public crackdowns on big business... large corporations, banks. There will be a lot of these high-profile attacks, just to shift the blame for what's happening in the economy. But I still expect that at some point — in 2025 — Elvira Nabiullina will have to resign, no matter what. They’ll have to make her the scapegoat.
#Russia #Economy

And where are they going to suddenly get hundreds of billions? They wanted to cut the Pentagon’s budget. Remember, it all started with Vance’s statements — like, “let’s cut Pentagon spending by almost half.” They won’t be allowed to cut the Pentagon’s budget. It’ll be just like with Kennedy.
#USA #Economy

To maintain competitiveness, China will definitely go for a devaluation of the yuan. I’ll bet a bottle of vodka on it.
#China #Yuan #Economy

There are no grounds for the ruble to strengthen. Only a trend toward weakening.
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

If the people of Europe want to live under Putin’s heel, under the heel of this darkness, this fascism, then fine, they can rejoice over cheap gas. But if Europe doesn’t want to live in a prison, in a GULAG, and wants to maintain its independence, then rejecting Russian gas is the only way forward. I have no doubt that sooner or later, Europe will realize this and will block all paths of Russian gas influence over itself.
#Europe #Russia #Gas

And now, under the conditions of sanctions, isolation from the world, all negative factors such as demographic challenges, the labor market, lack of investments, and resources, Russia is simply doomed to a catastrophe. An economic catastrophe.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy