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Predictions and promises monitor

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#USA

Authors
150
Predictions
359
Verified
138
Came true
62%
Complex
36%
Confident
40%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Alexander Kolyandr

Personally, I think the next move we’ll see will be an attack by Trump and his administration on the Federal Reserve, trying to strip it of its independence or at least push it into the shadows — or on the U.S. statistical bureau, to make it provide more “correct” numbers.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Since it has the nature of a behind-the-scenes financial and economic deal, Kirill Dmitriev is a key figure here. So, without a doubt, this deal will go through. Calling it “peace talks” doesn’t feel right. I believe it will be a situation that Trump will sell as his victory — and after that, the war will resume. In response to the question: “Do you think peace negotiations will reach their logical conclusion, or will everything continue indefinitely?”
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

No, they can't. Because the Democrats (Trump's enemies) don't have that kind of power. In response to the question: "Can they try to impeach Trump?"
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Ivan Preobrazhensky

One can be fairly certain about the upcoming negotiations: either it will once again be talks in Riyadh, or it will be a direct call between Putin and Trump — and they will finally come to some kind of agreement. Most likely, an energy agreement on non-strike commitments and a deal regarding the Black Sea will be signed. Because the Ukrainian side will agree to sign them.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia #Trump #Putin
ru → en

Igor Slabykh

Ideally, a special prosecutor should be appointed. Because who’s going to conduct the investigation? Tulsi Gabbard, who took part in that chat? Or the CIA director? They’re all interested parties. A special prosecutor needs to be appointed to carry out the investigation. But that’s not going to happen.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Mikhail Fishman

An increase in military support for Ukraine — it’s already clear that this won’t happen. Trump won’t do it, even though such proposals have been discussed.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Trump
ru → en

Mikhail Fishman

Trump will continue to build relations with Putin one way or another. Trump will simply start pulling out of the war in Ukraine. And it will end pretty soon because of that. That’s my prediction. And I would be glad to be wrong. It seems to me that soon, America will no longer be part of this war.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Trump #Russia
ru → en

Sergei Ryabkov

I don't think this will happen. I believe that in the rhetoric, in the vocabulary, in the language used by the current administration, there's a certain amount of bravado. I think it's a kind of verbal whip used to spur the "NATO horse." The U.S. will not leave NATO.
Expected
#USA #NATO
ru → en

Sergey Sanovich

If Trump tries, they won’t let him. That would require violating two constitutional amendments: not just the 22nd, which limits the number of terms, but also, it seems, the 12th, which concerns who can be vice president. A vice president can only be someone who is eligible to be president — and he isn’t. And I believe even the Supreme Court would rule that he can’t. But I don’t think he’ll even try — mainly because of his age.
Expected
#USA #2028 United States presidential election #Elections #Trump
ru → en

Valery Solovei

I think he will manage to resolve the Greenland issue. And there’s already a plan. A referendum is held in Greenland. According to the polling data we know, out of 90,000 eligible voters, the majority supports independence, and then Greenland declares a free association with the United States... The issue is resolved without the use of military force.
Expected
#Greenland #USA #Denmark #Trump
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

It’s possible that France might want to send troops to Ukraine on its own. However, it’s unclear how they would be supplied there, and what would happen if the Russian army strikes French forces. In that case, Paris would find itself in a very difficult position — either start a war with Russia or quietly withdraw the troops and admit military defeat. Therefore, we’ll risk making a prediction — Macron won’t send anyone anywhere. All his statements are loud but empty political PR. Until the Americans authorize the deployment of European — and specifically French — troops to Ukraine, no Europeans will appear there.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #France #Europe #USA #Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Pastukhov

Most likely, if the negotiations continue at this pace for just a bit longer, two events await us: a large-scale spring-summer Russian offensive on the front lines, and the simultaneous disappearance of America from the picture.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Yulia Latynina

You can just buy the 67 thousand — give them a million and buy them. I think that’s exactly what will happen with Greenland in one way or another, and no one will be any worse off because of it. The idea is that the U.S. will somehow acquire Greenland, and it will happen without negative consequences.
Expected
#Greenland #USA #Denmark
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

For now, they differ in that American tanks aren’t rolling up to Toronto... I still don’t really believe that Americans are going to go to war with Canada. In response to the question: “What’s the difference between Trump’s statements about Canada and Putin’s about Ukraine?”
Expected
#USA #Canada
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

I think, in the end, VOA won't be shut down but will be drastically reduced and turned into something resembling Radio Beijing during Mao's era — broadcasting Trump’s wisdom and his Brilliant Ideas around the clock in all languages. VOA = Voice of America
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

This cannot go on for long. After a while, it will become obvious that peace is impossible. That Trump has only provoked Putin, making him more brazen and less willing to negotiate. Somehow, this bubble will burst. I fear it will happen in an unpleasant and rather loud manner.
Expected
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Evgeniy Stupin

It is clear that Trump is making many concessions. But his patience is not limitless. And, naturally, at some point, he will get tired of Putin leading him by the nose. He understands all of this perfectly. And I think the turnaround will be impressive. We will see, first of all, the reintroduction of sanctions, secondly, an increase in arms supplies to Ukraine, and much more.
Expected
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

I am 100% sure that the status of Crimea will not be recognized as Russian territory by either the United States or the UN.
Expected
#Ukraine #USA #Russia #UN
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

It is clear that the negotiations will lead nowhere. Putin will demand the five regions that Witkoff is already offering him. They will end. New approaches will be needed. Trump will most likely step away from this topic, losing interest in it. This is where China will step onto the stage with much stronger leverage.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #China #Trump
ru → en

Sergey Parkhomenko

It seems to me that we are in a situation where there is a very high risk that if Trump realizes that there is no immediate result and he is not achieving some sort of instant success, he will simply drop this matter, he will simply stop dealing with it. Speaking about organizing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA
ru → en

Lev Schlosberg

No European support package will replace the American aid package to Ukraine in the coming years, neither military nor financial. It is impossible. Europe does not have these resources, they simply do not exist. This is the reality of life.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Europe
ru → en

Mark Feygin

There will be midterm elections there in November 2026. My cautious prediction is that the Republican Party will lose them.
Expected
#USA #Elections
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

The only tool that could work in this situation is pressure on Putin. It's already clear after two months that Trump refuses to apply it. And he won’t. He will not apply it. It’s already possible to conclude that Trump does not want to put any pressure on Putin.
Expected
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Evgeny Chichvarkin

I think it will end with an agreement to have another conversation. I don't expect any major turning points. In response to the question: "Peskov stated that Putin does not intend to make any official statements after the conversation. We’ll be waiting for information from Trump... What do you think will be the outcome of today’s conversation?"
Completely came true
#Putin #Trump #Russia #USA #War in Ukraine #Ukraine
ru → en

Vladimir Surdin

Since no one has reached the finish line yet, it's hard to say who's ahead. But judging by the pace, it's the Americans. However, the Chinese are catching up very actively. But I don’t think they’ll make it. The Americans will land on the Moon again. They have a huge head start. They have two large rockets. And now there’s also Elon Musk and Bezos.
Expected
#Space #Science and technology #USA #China
ru → en

Win/Win

Zelensky will soon arrive at the White House for the signing of an agreement on rare earth metals and the transfer of Ukraine's infrastructure to a U.S. fund. He will not be the one signing it, but he will be present. And the funniest part? He will be wearing a business suit. The days of dirty, unwashed sweatshirts and cargo pants are over for the White House.
Expected
#Zelensky #Ukraine #USA #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Artemy Troitsky

I think that soon Trump will face the arctic fox (*pesets*). How exactly this will happen, I don’t know. But there are many possible scenarios, ranging from mass popular uprisings… all the way to a military coup.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

First of all, I expect that there will be an attempt to amend the U.S. Constitution to allow Trump to stay for another term.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

In my opinion, Trump will not withdraw from NATO, but he will strongly pressure Europe to increase military spending to 5% of GDP, which is absolutely impossible.
Expected
#NATO #USA #European Union
ru → en

Vitaly Portnikov

Well, Rubio is a disaster... In a couple of months, he’ll be thrown out for failing to live up to all of Trump’s illusions.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Anatoly Nesmiyan

It is already clear that Trump will not sign anything with Zelensky (well, let’s leave a 1-2 percent chance for an extreme scenario—though an alien arrival seems like a slightly more likely scenario).
Expected
#Trump #Zelensky #USA #Ukraine #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Oleksiy Arestovych

But the real issue of the conflict is the lack of security guarantees that Zelensky is demanding—guarantees that neither Trump, nor Vance, nor Biden, nor anyone else can provide. There will never be security guarantees… Security guarantees are impossible in this situation. They will not happen, not ever, under any circumstances.
Expected
#Ukraine #USA #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Olena Kurbanova

Donald Trump will not serve out his full term. I am more than certain that he will not be president for four years.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Trump's mistake was underestimating Zelensky and broadcasting that conversation. The Europeans outplayed the Americans. The war will continue for a long time—at least until 2028. The war in Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Vladislav Inozemtsev

He has engaged in war on multiple fronts simultaneously, which, in my opinion, is a catastrophic mistake. His actions are purely impulsive. The level of his team has turned out to be absolutely abysmal. That’s why I believe he will not last until the end of his term—and maybe he won’t even survive. Trump.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Sergey Aleksashenko

I don't really understand whether this deal can actually be implemented or not. And I have serious doubts that it will even start working before the end of Donald Trump's presidential term. (The deal between the U.S. and Ukraine on rare earth metals.)
Expected
#USA #Ukraine #Economy
ru → en

Mark Feygin

He will not achieve peace with Moscow because he cannot make such a peace at Ukraine’s expense. He cannot. That is not what he promised, that is not what is expected of him, and he does not have the authority to do so. Trump.
Expected
#Trump #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia
ru → en

Oleksiy Arestovych

Remember this tweet. It contains the rules and outlines of the new world. Everything stated below has already been decided and will be announced soon. A Ukraine Reconstruction Fund will be established, with the U.S., Russia, and China as its shareholders. The initial capital will consist of $40 billion from the U.S., $40 billion from Russia, and $20 billion from China. Later, this Fund will absorb $350 billion from Russia (frozen assets), while the U.S. considers that it has already contributed $350 billion (this is the exact figure Trump mentioned). But that’s not all. Over time, the U.S. will contribute another $350 billion, China—around $200 billion, along with additional contributions from the royal dynasties of the Persian Gulf. The total size of the Fund is expected to reach $1 trillion.
Expected
#Ukraine #USA #Russia #China #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Mark Feygin

This is a left-liberal award for its own— not for outsiders, but for its own. That doesn’t make it better or worse. It’s simply a prize given only to those whom the liberal community considers acceptable to honor with such awards. It’s not necessarily the most deserving individuals. This is also a political tool. Trump is not part of this circle; he will never receive a Nobel Prize. Never.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

The situation is truly strange. Russia has given nothing, yet the Americans have offered it mountains of gold. I don’t think any of this will come to pass. Russia will do nothing, and the Americans will lift nothing from it.
Expected
#Russia #USA
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

Something tells me that Trump is planning to run for another term, despite the relevant amendment to the U.S. Constitution.
Expected
#Trump #USA #Elections
ru → en

Dmitry Gordon

At the negotiations between Trump and Putin, which I am sure will take place by the end of February.
Did not come true
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

If the Americans step in for Taiwan and defend it as they have promised, it could result in a devastating military defeat for China—literally a catastrophe—that would completely shut down the idea of bringing Taiwan back into China’s fold. Completely. Therefore, in theory, they should not decide on such an action in the near future.
Expected
#Taiwan #China #USA
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

My main demand is that America must apologize for proposing that we sign this predatory agreement, for attempting to rob us at a crucial moment. I was genuinely outraged by the White House representative's words. I believe that America will have to apologize for this. The U.S. will apologize to Ukraine for proposing the resource extraction agreement in the form it was presented during the Munich Conference in February 2025.
Expected
#USA #Ukraine
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

There will be neither a second term for Trump nor a successor to whom he will transfer power. Completely different people will come to power and reject everything from the past.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Vitaly Dymarsky

I think that Musk will either calm down soon or he will be removed.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

Yes, Trump will dismantle NATO. Let’s not have any doubts, let’s not hesitate or say, "Maybe he won’t." He will. He will.
Expected
#NATO #Trump #USA
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

Another unpleasant conclusion: there will be no more exchanges of political prisoners for spies. Trump is only willing to trade for his own guys—everything else means nothing to him. Unfortunately, this is very bad news.
Expected
#USA #Russia #Trump
ru → en

Ramis Yunus

Ukraine must count on the fact that the world will never recognize this annexation. As for the statements that the defense minister said there can be no return to 2014—I’m sorry, but your president also said that today we cannot, we do not have the capabilities for that. But the defense minister did not say that they recognize this as Russian territory. That will not happen, you can be sure of it—that will never happen. Neither Donald Trump, nor his defense minister, nor any congressman or senator will ever say this out loud.
Expected
#Ukraine #USA #War in Ukraine #Trump
ru → en

Vitaly Portnikov

We will witness the trial of Elon Musk, where he will be sentenced to 25 years in prison for exploiting employees of high-tech agencies of Tesla. And we will stand in support of Elon Musk.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Mikhail Savva

Such a deal format proposed by Trump, to me, is a clear indication that the United States will have a commercial interest in Ukraine maintaining control over its eastern regions. When will the specific outlines of the plan appear? It's hard to say. But I assume it will be before April. By April, this plan will likely be in place and probably made public.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA
ru → en

Mark Feygin

As for Trump's statements about his peacekeeping and humanitarian mission, when he says that not only will we not start wars ourselves, but we will also end others— the one who does not participate in the war is the one who wins. This will not work for Trump, this will not work for Trump. He will not be able to end wars or avoid starting them during his four-year term.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Oleg Itskhoki

What we are observing now, for example, is that the Latin American MERCOSUR may reach an agreement with Europe. These fragmented regional trade unions will start absorbing the effects that previously belonged to the World Trade Organization. It is very likely that the World Trade Organization will cease to exist, or the United States will withdraw from it.
Expected
#Economy #USA
ru → en