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Predictions and promises monitor

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#USA

Authors
162
Predictions
422
Verified
140
Came true
61%
Complex
36%
Confident
39%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Boris Pastukhov

And if Trump pulls out and the situation in Ukraine sharply deteriorates militarily — and he realizes that this deterioration is giving him the image of a weak president — then I assure you, he’ll come right back and start defending that image. If these negotiations fail, he’ll keep going in circles: pulled out, came back; pulled out, came back. “Pulls out” here refers to withdrawing from negotiations over the war in Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

Here’s my prediction — Witkoff will be in prison after Trump’s term ends. Trump won’t be, but Witkoff will be behind bars for decades. If we live long enough, we’ll see it with our own eyes.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Michael Nacke

Pete Hegseth is about to lose his position any day now. Remember this tweet. Well, maybe not literally any day — but soon, Pete Hegseth will no longer be at the head of the Pentagon.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I still think that in this situation, the composition of the administration will gradually change. As we’ve discussed, some people will drop out. In their place will come increasingly polished, proper, predictable, non-confrontational Republicans — from among senators and congressmen. I think the eccentricity will gradually, step by step — not immediately — be done away with. Talking about the U.S. presidential administration.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

Over all these years, despite the fact that Trump has managed to insult virtually every well-known political figure at least once — with or without reason — he has never said a single bad word about Putin. He hasn’t, and he won’t.
Expected
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

That's the situation with the truce. As you can see, it’s over, and now the shelling has resumed. I don't expect any strong reaction from the U.S. The Kremlin will now say, “Look, Ukraine is not capable of making agreements, it violated the truce.” Most likely, there won’t even be much of a reaction from the American administration. And that’s how this Easter truce came to an end.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

I think he will keep trying to stop this war for a long time — until he succeeds. In response to the question: "How long will Trump keep trying to stop the war? When might he say he's washing his hands of it, that he’s done everything he could, and from now on it’s up to others — America is no longer interested?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

Let’s get back to the Trump administration. What’s next? I think that’s it. Basically, next week or in a couple of weeks, they’ll officially take offense — like, “if you’re so ungrateful and forgot to thank us, then we’re not going to do anything.” The Trump administration will soon withdraw from efforts to resolve the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Trump
ru → en

Stepan Demura

I think it will last a long time. I get the impression that this isn’t really about a tariff war, but about a serious economic war with China. Everything else is just a formality and a tool for building a broader coalition of countries against China — economically speaking. In response to the question: "How long will the tariff war continue?"
Expected
#USA #China #Economy
ru → en

Igor Eidman

Trump has a mess in his head. He doesn’t even know what he wants. He sets goals at the level of a child’s whims but has no idea how to achieve them. He just throws out some slogans like “Greenland is ours,” and then they frantically start thinking about how to make that whim come true. And it turns out, there’s no way to make it happen. And to understand that it’s unfeasible, they could’ve just asked ChatGPT — even it would have said that such things don’t happen in the modern world and that it’s simply not achievable. Trump will not take full control of Greenland or annex it to the U.S.
Expected
#USA #Trump #Greenland #Denmark
ru → en

Evgeny Gontmakher

I think that this confrontation between China and the United States will most likely end with yet another phone call between Trump and Xi Jinping, during which they will probably agree on some kind of truce in this trade war — in terms of the exchange of tariff blows — and begin negotiations. They’ll create some large working groups on both sides and start talks on how things should really be structured, and eventually, this will end in a compromise. This could go on for several months, of course, but China will, in some sense, acknowledge that the U.S. has a point.
Expected
#USA #China #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

There’s a funny story — because of Trump’s tariffs, the U.S. trade balance won’t improve, but will actually worsen. That’s because of the global economic slowdown, falling oil prices, and the shutdown of oil production facilities in the U.S., which is an important part of American exports. They’ll be exporting less oil, which means their trade balance will get worse. In other words, Trump’s actions will lead to the exact opposite result.
Expected
#USA #Economy #Trump
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

The Iran issue ranks second. On Trump’s scale, I would give it a weight of 3 out of 10. We know that this issue will be resolved, and very quickly. The nuclear program will be stopped through negotiations.
Expected
#Iran #USA #Trump
ru → en

Abbas Gallyamov

I think Trump definitely won’t object to that... I can’t imagine Trump refusing to sell weapons. In response to the remark: "Ukraine is no longer asking for aid, but wants to buy weapons, and the Europeans are providing money for that."
Expected
#Ukraine #USA #Trump #Europe #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Tatyana Popova

Ukraine is no longer asking for aid, but wants to buy weapons, and the Europeans are providing money for that... It seems to me that, in the end, Trump will respond positively to the proposal.
Expected
#Ukraine #USA #Trump #Europe #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Leonid Shvets

I think Zelensky won’t appear in Washington anytime soon. Svyrydenko will go there, I don’t know, everyone will be going — except Zelensky.
Expected
#Zelensky #Ukraine #USA
ru → en

Gennady Medetsky

I think that within the next week or two to three weeks, we should see a resolution to the U.S.–China trade war, because this isn’t really about money.
Expected
#USA #China #Economy
ru → en

Ramis Yunus

I can say this publicly—my opinion is that there definitely won’t be a full-scale war, nothing like "Desert Storm," nothing like what happened in Iraq with Saddam Hussein. That’s not going to happen. But a targeted strike on nuclear facilities... that would actually be good for him (Trump). A full-scale war in the Middle East involving the U.S. and Iran won’t happen, but targeted strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities are possible.
Expected
#Iran #USA #Middle East #Trump
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Over these 4 years, if Trump fails to achieve peaceful negotiations with Russia and Iran, then by the end of his term he might resort to war with Iran, for example.
Expected
#USA #Iran #Trump
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Just yesterday, Kyiv, through Zelensky’s statement, declared that it would never agree to the loss of Crimea and other territories that were part of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic. Clearly, these are risky assets. It’s like trying to extract resources in a potential war zone. That’s why the Americans won’t invest there. They will leave this highly risky line of engagement to the Europeans. The U.S. will not be extracting resources on Ukrainian territory.
Expected
#Ukraine #USA #Europe
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

I believe that unfortunately, Ukraine will be forced to accept the arrangement that will be agreed upon in negotiations mediated by Kirill Dmitriev and Steve Utkoff, and which will be finalized during a personal meeting between Presidents Putin and Trump. And Ukraine’s only trump card in this situation is military aid from Europe.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia #Putin #Trump
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Back in the summer of last year, I said that we would still see Trump in Tehran. And that’s most likely how it will be — just like we saw him meeting with Kim Jong Un.
Expected
#Trump #Iran #USA
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

They will sign an agreement with China sooner or later. There will be no war with China. And Chinese rare earth metals will continue to flow to America, just like they do now. There will be no war between the U.S. and China.
Expected
#USA #China
ru → en

Tikhon Dzyadko

I'm hosting the morning broadcast tomorrow. I'm absolutely convinced that by the time of the morning show on Dozhd, there will be some comment from Trump about the strike on the city of Sumy. For some reason, I feel that, given his media activity and the number of meetings he has with journalists, someone will ask him about it — we'll see how he responds.
Completely came true
#Trump #USA #Ukraine #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Dmitry Gordon

I think it will die down. Trump's main goal is a tariff war with China and, more broadly, a struggle with China for global hegemony. In response to the question: "A question about the global tariff war. Do you think it will quiet down and fade away, or are we in for a second round?"
Expected
#Economy #USA #Trump
ru → en

Igor Aizenberg

He could be impeached for that. But I don’t think there will be enough Republican senators in the Senate to reach 67% of the votes for his removal. So he will remain president, and the next election will be in November 2028. Talking about Trump.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Igor Aizenberg

I don't think he would ever say out loud that he sees Russia as an adversary, or that Putin is a war criminal. That’s completely out of the question. Trump
Expected
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

Trump is serving his second term in presidential office, a second term in office. He won’t be president a third time... I’m sure that Trump won’t run for a third term.
Expected
#Trump #USA #Elections
ru → en

Win/Win

Not even the Minister of Economy went from Ukraine to the U.S. for negotiations on the resource deal — the highest-ranking official there is Deputy Minister Kachka. No one knows who that is. The Ukrainians once again brought a proposal the Americans are seeing for the first time. There will be no deal. Trump, you've been misled.
Expected
#Ukraine #USA #Economy #Trump
ru → en

Vyacheslav Maltsev

Trump will never go to war with China. He won't even go to war with Iran, believe me. The most he’s capable of is fighting the Houthis. Response to the question: "Slava, what do you think, will Trump give the green light for a ground operation against China?"
Expected
#USA #Iran #China #Trump
ru → en

Yevgeny Kiselyov

For some reason, I don’t believe that Trump’s lost patience will necessarily turn into a flow of weapons suddenly pouring from across the ocean into Europe and then into Ukraine. And I also find it hard to believe that he’ll impose any “from-hell” sanctions against Putin. It seems to me that he’ll simply lose interest in this recently obsessive idea of his — to achieve a ceasefire on the Ukrainian front as quickly as possible. I think he’ll just throw up his hands and walk away.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #Ukraine
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

These past few days I’ve had a disturbing feeling that we might actually be witnessing the decline of America. If all of this keeps going the way it is, the system will enter such turbulence that parts will start to fall off. Then some states will start saying they need to secede, because it’s unclear how to keep living within this overall system — they’ll feel the need to save themselves. By "all of this" is meant Trump's policy, which is unpredictable for the markets and finance.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Stepan Demura

If industrial production in the U.S. increases its share of GDP by 5 percent. But that will never happen.
Expected
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Why is Whitkoff going everywhere? Now he’s gone to Iran. They’ll come to an agreement on the money. But the issue of Iran’s nuclear program won’t be resolved. That’s my prediction.
Expected
#Iran #Nuclear weapons #USA
ru → en

Vyacheslav Maltsev

A war between the U.S. and Iran would benefit China the most... And if it happens — mark my words — a nuclear strike on the U.S. will be inevitable; it will definitely happen. And it doesn’t really matter who launches it — it could be Russia, or someone else. China will try to pull everyone into the war.
Expected
#USA #Iran #China
ru → en

Win/Win

What does Trump want from China, raising tariffs on it every day? He’ll lower them eventually anyway.
Expected
#Trump #USA #China #Economy
ru → en

Bogdan Bakaleyko

I get the impression that, in the end, Donald Trump will come to an agreement and won’t continue to pressure the world.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

If this expulsion of China from the classroom by teacher Trump leads to increased trade between the U.S. and Russia, then trade turnover between Russia and the U.S. should skyrocket. But I think you understand that this won’t happen. Right now, China sells — or used to sell before the introduction of those 125% tariffs — iPhones to the U.S. So what now? Is China supposed to sell iPhones to Russia, and Russia to the U.S.? That’s absurd. It’s not going to happen.
Expected
#Russia #China #USA #Economy
ru → en

Natalia Evdokimova

I think they’ll agree that they will jointly develop the areas near or around the Arctic Ocean. That’s most likely how it will end — with a mutually beneficial deal. Regarding the ongoing negotiations between Russia and the U.S.
Expected
#Russia #USA
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

Something tells me that Musk is now going to try to initiate the arrest of Soros father and son.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

I believe there will be a certain degree of distancing now, but not total, not fatal, because the set of arguments in favor of their alliance hasn’t been exhausted yet. They will move closer or further apart depending on how useful or harmful Trump considers Musk to be at any given moment.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Denis Borisov

The interest rate... it will be lowered in the near future. In the U.S.
Expected
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Denis Borisov

And then, on the 19th day, the Federal Reserve cut the interest rate to nearly zero and printed a bunch of cash. They printed 700 billion U.S. dollars. Now the numbers will be completely different because money has devalued. This time they'll start printing by the trillions — just watch.
Expected
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

Personally, I don’t think there’s a very high likelihood that the Americans might launch a military campaign against Iran — the chances are low, but not zero.
Expected
#Iran #USA
ru → en

Mikhail Kasyanov

The most likely scenario as I see it today — the one that's taking shape... President Trump, I think, by May or June at the latest, will realize that Putin is not capable of making agreements, and he'll start stepping away from the issue. Ukraine will no longer interest him. He’ll blame everything on the Europeans: “These are your problems — deal with them yourselves.”
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Trump won’t stay on in four years, no matter what anyone says about a third term or a swap with Vance. I don’t believe in that — I think there’s absolutely no chance.
Expected
#USA #Trump #Elections
ru → en

Michael Nacke

I don't rule it out—in fact, I believe it's a very likely scenario—that we will see the United States involved in some kind of armed conflict, not in Ukraine, but near its own neighbors or somewhere else. I think it will happen. And I also think it will be a loud fiasco.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

U.S. President Donald Trump recently even proposed a 50 percent cut in defense spending. He made this proposal to Russia and China. But of course, this is pure demagoguery. In reality, under Donald Trump’s administration, American defense spending will increase.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

Over the past week and the one before it, as well as over the past few months, there’s been a lot of talk that the U.S. might either withdraw from NATO or weaken its ties with the alliance. Well, I state with full confidence: this is complete nonsense. The United States will never give up such a tool of military and political dominance in Europe as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Expected
#NATO #USA
ru → en

Mark Feygin

They’ll do it. Just look at how freely they impose multibillion-dollar fines on these American companies. In response to the remark: "What if the Europeans introduce some tariffs on American digital services?"
Expected
#European Union #USA #Economy
ru → en

Olena Kurbanova

I personally believe that Marco Rubio will most likely leave Trump’s circle — possibly even faster than Elon Musk.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Yigal Levin

It seems to me that with Iran, everything is coming to a point where either they will have to start a direct dialogue with the Americans, as the Americans want, or the Americans will start bombing them. I don't see a third possible outcome. We'll see in the coming weeks or months.
Expected
#Iran #USA
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

If the defeat in the midterm elections is crushing, then he won’t make it to the end of the term. In response to the question: "In your opinion, will Trump serve out his full term?"
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

And where are they going to suddenly get hundreds of billions? They wanted to cut the Pentagon’s budget. Remember, it all started with Vance’s statements — like, “let’s cut Pentagon spending by almost half.” They won’t be allowed to cut the Pentagon’s budget. It’ll be just like with Kennedy.
Expected
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Stanislav Kucher

I'm confident that some of these tariffs will be lifted, and quite soon at that. The tariffs imposed by Donald Trump.
Expected
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Alexander Kolyandr

Personally, I think the next move we’ll see will be an attack by Trump and his administration on the Federal Reserve, trying to strip it of its independence or at least push it into the shadows — or on the U.S. statistical bureau, to make it provide more “correct” numbers.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Since it has the nature of a behind-the-scenes financial and economic deal, Kirill Dmitriev is a key figure here. So, without a doubt, this deal will go through. Calling it “peace talks” doesn’t feel right. I believe it will be a situation that Trump will sell as his victory — and after that, the war will resume. In response to the question: “Do you think peace negotiations will reach their logical conclusion, or will everything continue indefinitely?”
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en