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Predictions and promises monitor

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#USA

Authors
137
Predictions
325
Verified
134
Came true
62%
Complex
35%
Confident
40%

Yuri Felshtinsky

First of all, I expect that there will be an attempt to amend the U.S. Constitution to allow Trump to stay for another term.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

In my opinion, Trump will not withdraw from NATO, but he will strongly pressure Europe to increase military spending to 5% of GDP, which is absolutely impossible.
Expected
#NATO #USA #European Union
ru → en

Vitaly Portnikov

Well, Rubio is a disaster... In a couple of months, he’ll be thrown out for failing to live up to all of Trump’s illusions.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Anatoly Nesmiyan

It is already clear that Trump will not sign anything with Zelensky (well, let’s leave a 1-2 percent chance for an extreme scenario—though an alien arrival seems like a slightly more likely scenario).
Expected
#Trump #Zelensky #USA #Ukraine #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Oleksiy Arestovych

But the real issue of the conflict is the lack of security guarantees that Zelensky is demanding—guarantees that neither Trump, nor Vance, nor Biden, nor anyone else can provide. There will never be security guarantees… Security guarantees are impossible in this situation. They will not happen, not ever, under any circumstances.
Expected
#Ukraine #USA #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Olena Kurbanova

Donald Trump will not serve out his full term. I am more than certain that he will not be president for four years.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Trump's mistake was underestimating Zelensky and broadcasting that conversation. The Europeans outplayed the Americans. The war will continue for a long time—at least until 2028. The war in Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Vladislav Inozemtsev

He has engaged in war on multiple fronts simultaneously, which, in my opinion, is a catastrophic mistake. His actions are purely impulsive. The level of his team has turned out to be absolutely abysmal. That’s why I believe he will not last until the end of his term—and maybe he won’t even survive. Trump.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Sergey Aleksashenko

I don't really understand whether this deal can actually be implemented or not. And I have serious doubts that it will even start working before the end of Donald Trump's presidential term. (The deal between the U.S. and Ukraine on rare earth metals.)
Expected
#USA #Ukraine #Economy
ru → en

Mark Feygin

He will not achieve peace with Moscow because he cannot make such a peace at Ukraine’s expense. He cannot. That is not what he promised, that is not what is expected of him, and he does not have the authority to do so. Trump.
Expected
#Trump #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia
ru → en

Oleksiy Arestovych

Remember this tweet. It contains the rules and outlines of the new world. Everything stated below has already been decided and will be announced soon. A Ukraine Reconstruction Fund will be established, with the U.S., Russia, and China as its shareholders. The initial capital will consist of $40 billion from the U.S., $40 billion from Russia, and $20 billion from China. Later, this Fund will absorb $350 billion from Russia (frozen assets), while the U.S. considers that it has already contributed $350 billion (this is the exact figure Trump mentioned). But that’s not all. Over time, the U.S. will contribute another $350 billion, China—around $200 billion, along with additional contributions from the royal dynasties of the Persian Gulf. The total size of the Fund is expected to reach $1 trillion.
Expected
#Ukraine #USA #Russia #China #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Mark Feygin

This is a left-liberal award for its own— not for outsiders, but for its own. That doesn’t make it better or worse. It’s simply a prize given only to those whom the liberal community considers acceptable to honor with such awards. It’s not necessarily the most deserving individuals. This is also a political tool. Trump is not part of this circle; he will never receive a Nobel Prize. Never.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

The situation is truly strange. Russia has given nothing, yet the Americans have offered it mountains of gold. I don’t think any of this will come to pass. Russia will do nothing, and the Americans will lift nothing from it.
Expected
#Russia #USA
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

Something tells me that Trump is planning to run for another term, despite the relevant amendment to the U.S. Constitution.
Expected
#Trump #USA #Elections
ru → en

Dmitry Gordon

At the negotiations between Trump and Putin, which I am sure will take place by the end of February.
Did not come true
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

If the Americans step in for Taiwan and defend it as they have promised, it could result in a devastating military defeat for China—literally a catastrophe—that would completely shut down the idea of bringing Taiwan back into China’s fold. Completely. Therefore, in theory, they should not decide on such an action in the near future.
Expected
#Taiwan #China #USA
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

My main demand is that America must apologize for proposing that we sign this predatory agreement, for attempting to rob us at a crucial moment. I was genuinely outraged by the White House representative's words. I believe that America will have to apologize for this. The U.S. will apologize to Ukraine for proposing the resource extraction agreement in the form it was presented during the Munich Conference in February 2025.
Expected
#USA #Ukraine
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

There will be neither a second term for Trump nor a successor to whom he will transfer power. Completely different people will come to power and reject everything from the past.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Vitaly Dymarsky

I think that Musk will either calm down soon or he will be removed.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

Yes, Trump will dismantle NATO. Let’s not have any doubts, let’s not hesitate or say, "Maybe he won’t." He will. He will.
Expected
#NATO #Trump #USA
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

Another unpleasant conclusion: there will be no more exchanges of political prisoners for spies. Trump is only willing to trade for his own guys—everything else means nothing to him. Unfortunately, this is very bad news.
Expected
#USA #Russia #Trump
ru → en

Ramis Yunus

Ukraine must count on the fact that the world will never recognize this annexation. As for the statements that the defense minister said there can be no return to 2014—I’m sorry, but your president also said that today we cannot, we do not have the capabilities for that. But the defense minister did not say that they recognize this as Russian territory. That will not happen, you can be sure of it—that will never happen. Neither Donald Trump, nor his defense minister, nor any congressman or senator will ever say this out loud.
Expected
#Ukraine #USA #War in Ukraine #Trump
ru → en

Vitaly Portnikov

We will witness the trial of Elon Musk, where he will be sentenced to 25 years in prison for exploiting employees of high-tech agencies of Tesla. And we will stand in support of Elon Musk.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Mikhail Savva

Such a deal format proposed by Trump, to me, is a clear indication that the United States will have a commercial interest in Ukraine maintaining control over its eastern regions. When will the specific outlines of the plan appear? It's hard to say. But I assume it will be before April. By April, this plan will likely be in place and probably made public.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA
ru → en

Mark Feygin

As for Trump's statements about his peacekeeping and humanitarian mission, when he says that not only will we not start wars ourselves, but we will also end others— the one who does not participate in the war is the one who wins. This will not work for Trump, this will not work for Trump. He will not be able to end wars or avoid starting them during his four-year term.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Oleg Itskhoki

What we are observing now, for example, is that the Latin American MERCOSUR may reach an agreement with Europe. These fragmented regional trade unions will start absorbing the effects that previously belonged to the World Trade Organization. It is very likely that the World Trade Organization will cease to exist, or the United States will withdraw from it.
Expected
#Economy #USA
ru → en

Garry Kasparov

The Kremlin’s very demand for negotiations with the legitimate Ukrainian government creates yet another closed loop. On one hand, the Americans agree to hold elections after a ceasefire. On the other hand, it is impossible to sign even a temporary ceasefire agreement with anyone other than Zelensky, and holding elections before a ceasefire is also not an option. This creates yet another kind of trap, from which I currently see no way out. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that the war will continue for the next several months.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Abbas Gallyamov

Trump, one of Putin's most important demands regarding Ukraine not joining NATO—strictly speaking, he basically agrees with it. So why antagonize this man? If he gets angry or offended, he might simply declare that the U.S. supports Ukraine’s application... How can you afford to quarrel with such a person? That’s why Putin will go to the negotiations. And I believe he will make a significant number of concessions.
Expected
#Putin #Trump #War in Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Sergei Markov

The most likely course of Russia-U.S. negotiations: a forecast attempt. 1. The U.S. and Russia are not ready to reach a compromise on Ukraine. 2. This is why the phone conversation between Putin and Trump has been delayed for so long—there needs to be a result, but there isn't one yet. 3. The conversation will take place soon. They will agree on a summit and a working group. 4. The summit will take place in the spring. However, there will still be no compromise on Ukraine. 5. However, a crucial compromise will be reached—de-escalation in terms of nuclear conflict. Trump will present this as a huge victory. 6. There will be a pause in negotiations on the Ukraine conflict, discussions will continue in a closed format, while military actions will also persist. 7. Trump will cut U.S. funding for Ukraine by about three times—from $300 billion to $100 billion—and will push Europe to contribute more, up to $200 billion. Europe will not increase its contributions. 8. In the spring, summer, and fall, everything will continue as it is. 9. By autumn, political conditions for negotiations will take shape: Europe's and Ukraine’s fatigue will force them to make more concessions to Russia. 10. Thus, by the end of the year, or possibly even in the fall, a peace agreement will be signed.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Trump
ru → en

Tatiana Mikhailova

Canada's primary export to the U.S. is oil. The U.S. operates oil refineries that process this oil to produce gasoline for the domestic market. A tariff on Canadian oil would immediately impact gasoline prices within the U.S. Gasoline prices in the U.S. will rise if tariffs on Canadian oil are imposed.
Expected
#USA #Canada #Oil #Economy
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

Trump has appointed a special representative for Ukraine and given him 100 days. This means there will be no meeting for at least 100 days, as during this time, the representative will be searching for a solution. If Trump ever meets with Putin, it certainly won’t be for negotiations or to discuss any details. No, by then, a finalized solution will already be on the table—just waiting to be signed. There will be no meeting between Trump and Putin in the next 100 days.
Expected
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine #Ukraine
ru → en

Lev Schlosberg

I think that Trump and Musk won’t get along for long—that’s my prediction.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Mikhail Fishman

Negotiations will undoubtedly take place; this seems obvious to me. I think we should expect them within days, any day now. I believe there will be a phone conversation. It will be interesting to observe how it is arranged. Most likely, it will be organized in such a way that Trump will call Putin.
Completely came true
#Russia #USA #Trump #Putin
ru → en

Oleg Grigoriev

As for the withdrawal from the World Health Organization, my personal opinion is that they are unlikely to go through with it completely, highly unlikely. Talking about the U.S. withdrawal from the WHO.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Mikhail Khazin

There will likely be restrictions on transferring dollars within the territory Trump declares his own. However, I currently believe this will involve a united economic system comprising Canada, the U.S., and Mexico. Dollars, both cash and electronic, will only be transferable out of this system with very strict limitations.
Expected
#Dollar #Economy #USA #Canada #Mexico #Trump
ru → en

Yigal Levin

Trump commented on his recent conversation with the Danish Prime Minister and noted that he is confident the United States will eventually acquire Greenland. I think this will indeed happen. The U.S. has not expanded for over half a century because those decades were consumed by the confrontation with the socialist bloc, where everything teetered on the brink of the Cold War escalating into not just a hot war, but a nuclear one.
Expected
#Greenland #USA #Denmark #Trump
ru → en

Vladislav Inozemtsev

I could be wrong, but it seems to me that we've entered a Republican decade, lasting at least 12 years, and possibly even longer. Republicans will remain in power in the USA for the next 12 years.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Roman Dobrohotov

They managed to fall out with the entire world in a very short period of time. In the end, they won't get Greenland, but they've already created conflicts with all their former allies. Referring to the USA.
Expected
#Greenland #USA #Denmark
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I think, my prediction is that this issue will somehow be resolved. After all, the American establishment, which is absolutely not inclined to take responsibility for any new territories—whether it's the 51st state, Canada, or Greenland—will manage to convince Trump that such actions are entirely unnecessary at the moment. After all, Trump doesn’t make this decision alone. By the way, to annex new territories, all states would need to vote in favor. You can’t just annex territories to America like that.
Expected
#USA #Canada #Greenland #Denmark #Trump
ru → en

Stanislav Kucher

The midterm elections for Congress will take place in a year and a half, and most likely, the Democrats will make a comeback. If this does not happen, it will be a historic precedent.
Expected
#USA #Elections
ru → en

Oleg Itskhoki

How will the Trump administration address this? The issue of the national debt, for example, clearly won’t be resolved by this administration. On the contrary, the debt will grow, and this might become a topic for the next administration.
Expected
#USA #Economy #Trump
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

Now Trump wants to overturn all of this. The question is whether he can succeed. The canal has been officially transferred through a formal agreement, and it is impossible to take the Panama Canal independently, separate from Panama, as in the case of Greenland, and then annex it. No. Moreover, I am convinced that if the U.S. begins aggressive actions concerning the Panama Canal, Latin American solidarity will come into play.
Expected
#Panama #USA
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

So, it seems Denmark has already given up Greenland, judging by the statements from the Danish side. The likely course of action will be as follows: a referendum will take place in the near future, Greenland will become independent, the Danes will leave, and then the Americans will take control of everything. From the perspective of international law, there will be no grounds for objection. Trump will gobble up Greenland in one go.
Expected
#Greenland #Denmark #USA #Trump
ru → en

Sergey Zhirnov

Trump will not live to the end of his term in any case. The probability is 90%. First, he is an elderly man, turning 79 in 2025. Second, there have already been two assassination attempts on him.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

The most intense reaction was to the revocation of birthright citizenship. When Trump signed this order, reports in the press claim he called birthright citizenship "ridiculous." I believe the likelihood of this order being repealed is close to 100%.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Sergey Aleksashenko

A speculative financial instrument, in my understanding, with no future beyond Donald Trump's presidential term. When the rapid collapse of this Trump-coin will begin, no one knows. It could happen on the last day of Trump's presidency or midway through his term.
Expected
#Cryptocurrencies #Trump #USA #Economy
ru → en

Stanislav Kucher

There are political forces, including the Democrats, that are undoubtedly interested in driving a wedge between Trump and Musk. I think they will inevitably fall out one way or another, or at the very least, part ways. This is because both are entirely self-sufficient personalities, both are individuals accustomed to running their businesses in their own unique ways, and both respect power. Such people cannot remain in a close alliance for long.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

If at some point Trump or his inner circle grows tired of Musk’s antics, they will get rid of him. I believe two bears cannot live in the same den. Sooner or later, they will part ways. After all, there can only be one person in Washington who commands the world through Twitter and other social media, and that person is Donald Trump.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Oleksiy Arestovych

I think within a short period, two to three months, sorry, no less, preparations will be made for a meeting. There will be a meeting between Xi Jinping, Putin, and Trump, where they will divide the world.
Expected
#Trump #Xi Jinping #Putin #USA #China #Russia
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

I speculate on what the next move by the United States might be: closing the Danish Straits, through which about 30-40% of Russia's oil and gas exports pass.
Expected
#USA #Denmark #Russia #Oil #Economy
ru → en

Dmitry Gordon

I think a meeting between Zelensky and Trump could take place literally the day after the inauguration, or perhaps 2–3 days later, but very, very quickly. I am convinced that Trump’s first conversation will be with Zelensky.
Expected
#Trump #Zelensky #USA #Ukraine
ru → en

Dmitry Gubin

I bet that Musk will be devoured by Trump within the next two years.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Roman Tsymbaliuk

By the way, I bet that Greenland's status will not change legally. In fact, it will remain the same as well. Especially since, as you’ve noted yourself, America’s influence there is already significant.
Expected
#Greenland #USA #Denmark
ru → en

Petteri Orpo

I don't believe armed action at all, for example regarding Greenland. He does not believe that Greenland will be taken over by the US through any means during the next presidential term.
Expected
#Greenland #Denmark #USA #Trump
en

Sergei Markov

The Danish authorities are in a complete panic. They’re trying to secretly reach out to Trump and ask him not to take Greenland. In exchange, they’re ready to give the U.S. everything in Greenland—any military bases, any concessions. I think Trump won’t take Greenland outright. He’ll take everything there while formally leaving Denmark’s flag flying.
Expected
#Greenland #Denmark #Trump #USA
ru → en

Alexander Goldfarb

I don’t think it will come to war. I believe he will pressure Denmark and Greenland... Military action seems unrealistic to me because there are plenty of other methods of persuasion. Regarding Greenland joining the USA.
Expected
#USA #Greenland #Denmark
ru → en