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Predictions and promises monitor

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Authors
173
Predictions
497
Verified
170
Came true
61%
Complex
42%
Confident
42%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

There is no deal with Trump and there won't be one. I don't expect any new visits from Witkoff to Moscow in the near future; there definitely won't be any.
Expected
#Russia #USA
ru → en

Yulia Latynina

And if Trump really does sell Ukraine weapons tomorrow funded by massive European money—and corners Putin in Istanbul—I think Putin’s mood will change too. It’s just that I doubt it will happen. I seriously doubt Trump would do it for Zelensky, who is a client of the “deep state”…
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Trump
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

The U.S. military remains the most powerful force in the world. And any attempt to hit Israel with a nuclear bomb would provoke a U.S. response against Iran so overwhelming that it would be catastrophic.
Expected
#Israel #Iran #USA #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Sergey Grabskiy

As of today, based on the indicators we see, there is no discussion of any ground operation in the next six months. In response to the question: “There are protests across the United States against U.S. involvement in the war. How do you assess the likelihood of a ground operation?” (in Iran)
Expected
#Iran #USA
ru → en

Daniel Sachkov

I’ve said from the very beginning that there will be a war with Iran. It doesn’t depend on which foot Trump got out of bed on, nor on anyone else. This is the mission he came to carry out. He will see it through—or he won’t be around… There will be a war with Iran. The U.S. war with Iran.
Expected
#Iran #USA #Trump
ru → en

Ian Matveev

I think Trump is trying to pressure the Iranian government into making some concessions, cutting a deal, but I don’t think he’ll succeed and will just back off. He’ll be his typical self—talking about how “we’ll hit you hard if you don’t agree”. Nobody will agree, and he won’t actually follow through; he’ll just walk away.
Expected
#Trump #USA #Iran
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

Right now, the main topic of discussion around the world is, of course, whether Donald Trump will enter the war between Israel and Iran or not. To put it briefly, my answer is that he most likely won't and will be too afraid.
Expected
#Iran #Israel #Trump #USA
ru → en

Oleg Tsaryov

I think the U.S. and Israel will simply bomb Iran into dust, leaving it in ruins. However, they won’t touch the oil and gas infrastructure — to avoid triggering a spike in fuel prices. The strikes will target uranium enrichment centers and military production facilities. They’ll declare it a victory. Iran essentially has no air defense. That’s why Israel and the U.S. will do whatever they want. There’s no way to stop them. There will be no ground operation.
Expected
#Iran #Israel #USA
ru → en

Vision of the future

The National Security Council under Trump has come to an end. Most likely, a decision will be made to finish off Iran. It’s easier to demonstrate power than to pretend to be a peacemaker. That way, the essence of power is clearer. Anyone who holds even a little bit of power is obliged to kick someone, so that others don’t come too close. Once the decision to crush Iran is made, the Pentagon will get involved in operations with Israel. American refueling aircraft will work with the Israeli Air Force. Then, Tomahawk strikes will begin as a show of force to third countries. This act of vanity and muscle-flexing will be crowned by strikes using high-power deep-penetration bombs.
Expected
#Iran #USA #Israel
ru → en

Yigal Levin

Indicators suggest that the Americans will likely get involved... It's important to understand that the Americans—especially their air forces—have tools and capabilities dozens of times greater than those of Israel. This, by the way, is a good point. If this is what Israel did to Iran, then what are the capabilities of the U.S.? I think they will get involved. In the end, Trump will probably try to claim the credit for himself, like “Look, I’m the victor”
Expected
#Iran #USA #Trump #Israel
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

I have a feeling that the Americans will end up entering the war after all. Trump issued a statement saying that he strongly warns the Iranian regime against attacking our forces and facilities in the Middle East...
Expected
#USA #Iran #Israel
ru → en

Mikhail Khazin

And here we can talk about the main loser in this whole story. The main loser is the President of the United States of America, Donald Trump, and here’s why. He actually traveled to the Middle East to negotiate with Arab regimes and did in fact reach agreements that they would give him a lot of money—not four trillion, of course, but somewhere between one and one and a half trillion he could have received. Now there are no illusions; it’s absolutely clear that he won’t get any money. Due to Israel’s strikes on Iran.
Expected
#Trump #USA #Middle East #Economy
ru → en

Igor Eidman

But I think the Democrats won’t accept him into their ranks. Even if Musk says “I want to join you”, they’ll say “No, we don’t need help from Musk”. The Democratic electorate hates Musk no less than they hate Trump.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Igor Eidman

I think the conflict will only escalate. Trump won’t forgive Musk, and Musk won’t forgive Trump. These aren’t the kind of people who forgive each other.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Irma Zauber

Trump has never had an enemy like Musk. When Musk wrote in his tweet that he was the one who elected Trump, it was actually a direct admission of election interference. And when Musk threatened that in 2026 he would fund the Republicans’ opponents in the Congressional elections. Well, first of all, I want to say right away that none of the Democrats will take that money from him.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Irma Zauber

And don’t even hope that these 500% sanctions will be fully approved — no, no. Tomorrow Putin will call him on the phone, say a few compliments to Trump, Trump will melt into his chair, and do everything he says. The Lindsey Graham bill on sanctions against Russia and 500% tariffs on countries that buy oil and gas from Russia will not be passed.
Expected
#USA #Russia
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

All in all, I think Trump doesn’t have much time left, because he’s clearly declining — and fast. He’s not in his best shape right now.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Mykhailo Samus

I think that unfortunately, Putin will still manage to hold on until September, and Congress won't start considering that very hellish sanctions package or the 500% tariffs on Russian oil. Referring to the Lindsey Graham bill.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

I believe that specifically with the bill, Musk will not win. Musk demands absolutely recklessly cutting social spending. Answer to the question: "I think this will be decisive, will Musk manage to shake the Senate to not let the bill pass?" (One Big Beautiful Bill)
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Michael Nacke

If someone said to me, "Michael, place a bet — who will win, Trump or Musk?" I’d say, of course, Musk.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Alex Parker Returns

Apparently, the Democrats will easily make a comeback in the 2026 congressional elections. Trump is practically burying himself.
Expected
#USA #Elections #Trump
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

No, absolutely not. Trump will lead it — he’ll come to the Senate and speak in support of this bill. In response to the question: "If the Senate moves to put Lindsey Graham’s bill to a vote and it passes, do you think Trump will veto it?"
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Yevgeny Kiselyov

My intuition tells me that Donald won't dare to resolve the Iran problem by military means. In response to the question: "You're watching Trump. Will he go for a military solution to the Iran issue, or will he back off?"
Expected
#Iran #Trump #USA
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

Eighty-eight senators are co-authors of the resolution demanding harsh secondary sanctions and 500% tariffs against buyers of Russian oil... Senator Wicker stated that Trump asked the Senate to hold off until the end of this week. So this issue should be resolved next week. And after yesterday’s statements by Thune and Jackson, I have no doubt that the resolution will be adopted.
Expected
#USA #Russia #Economy #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

Netanyahu's domestic political situation is difficult. I think he will take a historic step — without waiting for or asking Trump's permission, he will launch a strike on Israel. He misspoke — from the context, it’s clear that he meant "on Iran," not "on Israel."
Expected
#Israel #Iran #Trump #USA
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

A very important question will be preliminarily decided in Washington: Will the United States sell its weapons to European allies? I believe it will. Trump won’t be able to stand against the entire political establishment.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #USA #Europe
ru → en

Alexey Naumov

I predict that Donald Trump will hold off on imposing sanctions for now — Ukraine’s attack on the aircraft will give him a reason to claim that neither side wants peace. Sanctions against Russia
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA #Economy
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

Theoretically, it’s possible, but practically, I think the Americans will withdraw from the Ukrainian conflict within 1–2 years. Things are heating up too seriously around Taiwan. In response to the question: "Is it possible that China, through third countries, will try to drag the US into a hot conflict with Russia in order to buy time and rearm?"
Expected
#USA #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #China #Russia #Taiwan
ru → en

Scott Bessent

Well, first off all, I will say the United States of America is never going to default.
Expected
#USA #Economy
en

Vladimir Milov

In my article in The Insider, I write about these "sanctions from hell" proposed by Lindsey Graham — some kind of secondary sanctions against importers of Russian oil, 500% tariffs. None of that will happen. It's a PR phantom. It's impossible. Secondary sanctions against buyers of Russian oil are not feasible, because nearly 80% of Russian oil is purchased by just two countries — India and China — the largest trading partners of the United States.
Expected
#USA #Russia #Economy #Economy of Russia #Oil
ru → en

Stanislav Kucher

I think the bill that Lindsey Graham proposed to increase sanctions, including imposing 500% tariffs on companies trading with Russia, will pass. Trump will have to accept it.
Expected
#USA #Russia #Trump
ru → en

Vladimir Osechkin

I believe that within a matter of weeks, Trump will lose the last of his illusions that any kind of agreement is possible. I don’t think he will make a fool of himself in front of the entire world. I expect that in the coming weeks, he will shift to much more serious rhetoric, and we will see new sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation — not symbolic ones, but measures that will strike hard at Putin’s wartime mobilized economy.
Expected
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #Economy #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Mikhail Fishman

It seems to me that this scenario is not very likely. In response to the question: "The Wall Street Journal writes that Trump is considering imposing sanctions against Russia this week. How likely do you think this scenario is?"
Completely came true
#USA #Russia #Trump #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

I believe that in the fall we’ll see a very interesting situation when mass protests against Trump begin in the U.S. I'm not a forecaster in American politics, and I'm not a political scientist. This is my conclusion as an economist. By autumn, I think Americans will be exhausted.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

These emotional ups and downs, accompanied since February by the looming specter of a backroom deal... People have long been saying that Donald Trump himself might back out — both he and Vance have hinted at it. Honestly, I still don’t believe that the United States is even capable of pulling out of this process. Deep down, I continue to hold on to the hope that one day Trump will snap and push Putin to the breaking point. The U.S. will not exit the process of resolving the war in Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #USA #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

I expect that America will completely pull out of this process. I mentioned this scenario even before Trump took office... He won’t impose any sanctions. In response to the question: "What do you expect regarding the sanctions?" (against Russia)
Expected
#USA #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

That this will last long — even this 90-day agreement — I don’t really believe it. Trump won’t hold out; he’ll lose it again, start changing things, and a more serious stage of the war will begin, in which it’s unclear who will win. China might come out on top. The lifting of tariffs against China won’t last 90 days, and the trade war will continue.
Expected
#USA #China #Trump #Economy
ru → en

Ilya Ponomarev

My forecast, based purely on intuition and general practice, is that Trump — or rather, to be more precise, the Republicans — should lose these midterm elections, and the majority in Congress should shift to the Democrats. Whether that happens or not, we’ll see.
Expected
#USA #Elections
ru → en

Igor Eidman

The only thing I’m absolutely sure of is that nothing Trump promises will actually happen. In other words, look at it in reverse: if Trump says he’ll lower drug prices, that means drug prices won’t go down.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Tetiana Montian

Our side also realized that Trump just needs to be waited out, because today he says one thing, tomorrow another, and the day after something else... So they’re waiting too. I mean, how can you negotiate with someone who’s about to be taken down? It’s completely obvious. Trump will be taken down soon.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Ekaterina Kotrikadze

I believe that, of course, a meeting between them is inevitable — it will definitely happen... In response to the question: "What could anger Trump about Putin?"
Expected
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia
ru → en

Taras Berezovets

Let’s see what happens with the sanctions. The 17th EU sanctions package is ready. Will it be adopted? Europe is waiting for action from Trump. But Trump, for his part, is in no rush. I’ll venture a guess: Trump, as someone primarily focused on a meeting with Putin — he has said that he’s willing to postpone all other meetings for the sake of this one — doesn’t want to strain relations with the Kremlin. So I think Trump definitely won’t impose any sanctions now. Before the meeting with Putin.
Expected
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #Economy
ru → en

Sergei Markov

My forecast? No—my insight: the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will collapse now due to Ukraine’s ultimatums. But that will be the first move, a pass. After that, the second move: an announcement will be made about a meeting between Putin and Trump as soon as possible.
Did not come true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Trump #USA
ru → en

Vyacheslav Maltsev

China will not allow the U.S. to regain its status as a global leader. It will never allow it again. And China will inevitably destroy the entire European civilization. There won’t be even the faintest hint of human freedom — it won’t leave any. China is total cyber-tyranny for everyone.
Expected
#China #USA #Europe
ru → en

Vitaly Portnikov

I'm not sure that the United States will unilaterally recognize a Palestinian state... That’s too radical a step. But I think the Saudis will insist on it.
Expected
#USA #Palestine #Saudi Arabia
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

I consider that a far-fetched scenario. I would see it as a serious mistake on Trump’s part if he tries to do it. In response to the question: "Do you think he will run for another term? Will he seek re-election?"
Expected
#Trump #USA #Elections
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Putin and Trump have agreed on everything — specifically, that Russian gas headed to the West will come under American control. At Russia’s border, it will be taken over by the Americans, and a new consortium will be formed. The Americans will encircle Europe: liquefied gas from the West, and pipeline gas from the East. And gas will flow through Ukraine — but not Russian gas; it will be American gas passing through Ukraine. Orban will become one of the main distributors of this gas, together with the Austrian right-wing and Fico.
Expected
#Gas #Putin #Trump #Russia #USA #Europe #Ukraine
ru → en

Win/Win

Three hours ago in Geneva, the delegations of the U.S. and China reached a trade agreement and signed regulatory treaties in the field of foreign trade and interstate commercial relations. The U.S. tariff war against China is over. Starting tomorrow, all previously imposed tariffs will be lifted. Most tariffs will be reduced to zero.
Completely came true
#USA #China #Economy
ru → en

Win/Win

Trump's tweet will most likely be about the conclusion of a trade deal with the PRC. In response to Trump's message: "My next TRUTH will be one of the most important and impactful I have ever issued. ENJOY!"
Did not come true
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Sergey Aleksashenko

One shouldn’t think that if China seizes Taiwan, it will gain control of TSMC’s chip production facilities. I believe the Americans will destroy them quickly with precision strikes — China won’t get anything.
Expected
#China #Taiwan #USA
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

America itself made China competitive by moving all operations there, relying solely on cheap labor. Now, if it removes this pillar, we’ll see whether the cheap labor of not-very-free people can change anything. My position is no. They will lose to America, and they will fall behind much more significantly than one might imagine.
Expected
#USA #China #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

The electric vehicle revolution is continuing at a very rapid pace. Currently, the share of electric car sales in total car sales worldwide is around 20%, and it’s growing very quickly. For example, in the first quarter of this year, global electric car sales increased by almost a third compared to last year. This growth is primarily driven by China, where more electric cars are now sold than internal combustion engine cars. This shift is already irreversible. In a few years, electric vehicles will largely replace gasoline engines, especially in China and Europe. The United States is lagging behind in electrification.
Expected
#Science and technology #Europe #China #USA
ru → en

Win/Win

The meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump is being prepared and will take place before the end of May. Depending on the circumstances… those will be the topics discussed. It’s definitely not going to be like the Vatican on chairs.
Did not come true
#Putin #Trump #Russia #USA
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

Strangely enough, good. If everything had been going well for him, I think he wouldn’t be so determined to establish peace in Ukraine. Because now, achieving peace in Ukraine, against the backdrop of all his defeats and failures, has become a major motivator for him. I think he won’t be able to back away from this topic, so to speak. He’ll have to push for that peace. In response to the question: “Donald Trump has marked 100 days in office. What are your impressions of the American president’s time in power?”
Expected
#Trump #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

Trump will also soon say, “We are at war,” and will impose a state of emergency. I’m not even joking. The White House is already discussing the issue of transitioning the U.S. to a state of emergency, which would allow Trump to lift all sorts of restrictions on his decisions and govern the country through presidential decrees.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

SpaceX runs entirely on government money, and the Starships keep crashing — crashing again and again. In the foreseeable future, mark my words, the Starship rocket cannot be certified for human flights because he simply cannot make it safe.
Expected
#USA #Science and technology #Space
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Elon Musk — just look at how quickly and how far he has driven his Tesla down. You’ve probably seen the numbers for the first quarter: falling sales, falling profits. The guy, through his stupidity, impulsiveness, and inability to manage, has crashed his own company. My prediction: Tesla won’t recover from this, it won’t bounce back.
Expected
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

He will start arresting political opponents. He’ll begin with city mayors. If they’ve already started arresting judges for protecting migrants, they will likely go after local and regional authorities as well. They’ll start arresting mayors too, under the banner of fighting migration. Then, possibly, they’ll even reach opposition Democratic state governors. Mark my words, something will happen soon. They will begin arresting their political opponents — most likely under a pretext similar to how Putin introduced anti-democratic measures at the start of his rule. Trump will arrest his political opponents.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

For some reason, Trump is afraid of Putin. I think he won’t want to anger Putin with new sanctions... Imposing sanctions against Putin is not something Trump would do. He simply won’t.
Expected
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

Trump said: "I want to meet with Putin right away. The inauguration is now, and I want to meet with Putin immediately." And everyone was speculating whether he would meet with Putin or Zelensky first. I said they wouldn’t meet before summer. And now, my prediction just has one more month to hold.
Completely came true
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia
ru → en