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Over the next year, we can forget about prices of \$70 for Russian export oil — that would mean Brent at \$80. That’s definitely not something we’re facing for now.
#Oil #Economy #Russia #Economy of Russia

There will be no peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine in the foreseeable future, whether anyone likes it or not. This is a fact that follows from the logic of Putin’s behavior... They won’t reach an agreement.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

No. No, of course not. In response to the question: "Tell me, do you think Putin will come to Istanbul tomorrow or not?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Turkey

Translation: The war between India and Pakistan — do you think it will have a strong impact on the global economy? Well, as things are going, I would venture to predict that they will exchange some strikes and won’t continue beyond that, because for both of them, an all-out war with each other would have colossal and devastating consequences.
#India #Pakistan

Translation: And there was also an increase in spending. It’s at 0.8 trillion just for now. They will definitely increase it further. Now by autumn, they will start discussing the 2026 budget. Last year, Michael Nacke and I bet $100, and I won, that they would significantly increase spending, and they will increase it again this time.
#Russia #Economy #Economy of Russia

In the long term, oil will, of course, decline. That’s an obvious trend. No more $100 per barrel, unless there are major wars, but even then it would be short-lived. We will no longer see oil steadily returning to $100 per barrel.
#Oil #Economy

The electric vehicle revolution is continuing at a very rapid pace. Currently, the share of electric car sales in total car sales worldwide is around 20%, and it’s growing very quickly. For example, in the first quarter of this year, global electric car sales increased by almost a third compared to last year. This growth is primarily driven by China, where more electric cars are now sold than internal combustion engine cars. This shift is already irreversible. In a few years, electric vehicles will largely replace gasoline engines, especially in China and Europe. The United States is lagging behind in electrification.
#Science and technology #Europe #China #USA

SpaceX runs entirely on government money, and the Starships keep crashing — crashing again and again. In the foreseeable future, mark my words, the Starship rocket cannot be certified for human flights because he simply cannot make it safe.
#USA #Science and technology #Space

Elon Musk — just look at how quickly and how far he has driven his Tesla down. You’ve probably seen the numbers for the first quarter: falling sales, falling profits. The guy, through his stupidity, impulsiveness, and inability to manage, has crashed his own company. My prediction: Tesla won’t recover from this, it won’t bounce back.
#USA #Economy

He will start arresting political opponents. He’ll begin with city mayors. If they’ve already started arresting judges for protecting migrants, they will likely go after local and regional authorities as well. They’ll start arresting mayors too, under the banner of fighting migration. Then, possibly, they’ll even reach opposition Democratic state governors. Mark my words, something will happen soon. They will begin arresting their political opponents — most likely under a pretext similar to how Putin introduced anti-democratic measures at the start of his rule. Trump will arrest his political opponents.
#USA #Trump

For some reason, Trump is afraid of Putin. I think he won’t want to anger Putin with new sanctions... Imposing sanctions against Putin is not something Trump would do. He simply won’t.
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA

As for Crimea, in my opinion, after 11 years of occupation, it is already clear that Crimea will never be internationally recognized as Russian territory. It will never happen. The only thing Russia can count on is the occasional whims of individual leaders.
#Ukraine #Russia

There’s a funny story — because of Trump’s tariffs, the U.S. trade balance won’t improve, but will actually worsen. That’s because of the global economic slowdown, falling oil prices, and the shutdown of oil production facilities in the U.S., which is an important part of American exports. They’ll be exporting less oil, which means their trade balance will get worse. In other words, Trump’s actions will lead to the exact opposite result.
#USA #Economy #Trump

In Serbia, we can see that the wave of public discontent over some sort of retrospective of different years is growing, and in the end, it will bring Vučić down. I became 100% convinced of that when I saw the protests.
#Serbia

Many people are counting on the Central Bank to somehow miraculously defeat inflation and start lowering its key interest rate, which would then bring down loan rates as well. But that is definitely not going to happen.
#Economy #Economy of Russia #Russia

France was one of the most friendly Western powers toward Russia as a whole, as a phenomenon. Now, in the French political class, sentiments are at their strongest that Russia is a long-term strategic threat. These sentiments will outlast Emmanuel Macron, who has two years left to lead France. They will 100% outlast him.
#France #Russia

This cannot go on for long. After a while, it will become obvious that peace is impossible. That Trump has only provoked Putin, making him more brazen and less willing to negotiate. Somehow, this bubble will burst. I fear it will happen in an unpleasant and rather loud manner.
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine

The only tool that could work in this situation is pressure on Putin. It's already clear after two months that Trump refuses to apply it. And he won’t. He will not apply it. It’s already possible to conclude that Trump does not want to put any pressure on Putin.
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine

I usually don’t give investment advice, but just take a look at the stocks of European defense companies—they will definitely keep growing, 100%.
#Europe #Economy

Judging by what the Central Bank is saying, it looks like they won’t raise it. The Central Bank of Russia will not raise the key interest rate in February 2025.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

The ruble has settled above 100 per dollar, and I believe it will continue to weaken. Much will depend on the dynamics in the coming weeks.
#Ruble #Dollar #Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy

The price of oil will not rise. It will most likely decrease due to the obvious oversupply. This is because OPEC countries are eager to increase production and move beyond output quotas. If Trump has any influence here, it’s indirect.
#Oil #Economy

One thing Trump definitely won’t do is lift the sanctions on Russian LNG, and those sanctions are very effective.
#Russia #USA #Trump #Economy of Russia #Economy

The second question is what will happen under Trump with economic policy in the U.S. I actually believe that his policies will lead to very serious problems for the American economy and will slow it down.
#USA #Trump #Economy

More than two years have passed, and there’s still no mobilization, nor is it planned—there’s no sign of it on the horizon for the coming months. In Russia
#Russia #War in Ukraine

Their next rate meeting is on December 20, and they stated that they will raise rates again if nothing changes. As you and viewers might guess, over the next two months, it’s hard to imagine what could cause a sudden drop in inflation, especially when everything is spiraling and inflation expectations remain high, with no change in fundamental factors. So, it’s likely they’ll raise the rate again in December. The Central Bank of Russia is expected to increase the key rate once more on December 20, 2024.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

I think that eventually, Nabiullina will be dismissed after some time. Referring to Elvira Nabiullina, the head of the Central Bank of Russia.
#Russia

Next week, they have no other option but to sharply raise the rate... Predictions are predictions. I think at least 3 basis points, which means the current rate of 19% will go up to at least 22%. The Central Bank of Russia will raise the key rate to a minimum of 22% on October 25, 2024.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

The prices for the most common 95-octane gasoline are being held steady for now, largely due to the fuel damper mechanism. My prediction is that they won’t be able to maintain this for long, and eventually, the oil companies will approach the government and say: "There is already a significant gap between the real (economically justified) price of gasoline at retail gas stations and the price we are holding back—let’s start raising it". I’m curious when exactly this will happen, but I suspect we’re looking at the beginning of the year. Prices for 95-octane gasoline in Russia will soon start to rise.
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy #Gasoline

They're once again spinning unrealistic fairy tales... Now they want to convince us that they'll keep the deficit under a trillion rubles. In the three years of full-scale war, none of the Ministry of Finance's forecasts have come true. Our forecasts, however, have been accurate: they've exceeded all their modest projections, and nothing has worked out as they planned. This means that Russia's budget deficit in 2025 will exceed 1 trillion rubles.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

We bet with Michael $100 that military spending will increase by no less than 2 trillion rubles in 2025.
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy #War in Ukraine

We are waiting for the meeting on September 13. There is no scenario where the Central Bank will start lowering the rate. In the best case, the maintenance of 18% is being discussed. I will take a risk and make a prediction: I think they will raise it after all. The Central Bank of Russia is likely to raise the key interest rate at the upcoming meeting on September 13.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

I believe that the upcoming year 2025 will be incredibly difficult for Putin. And at the current scale, he will not be able to continue the war.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

I do not share the sentiment that the far-right has won. Overall, the AfD does not have such percentages in Germany, and in western Germany, they are closer to zero. They will not win at the national level. The Alternative for Germany will not win the national elections in 2025.
#Germany

I think she will win. Kamala Harris
#2024 United States presidential election #USA #KamalaHarris #Trump

Putin will get a breather, will resume and accumulate resources... and he will attack again. Putin will attack Ukraine again if a ceasefire is declared.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Technically, it will end with the defeat of Hamas.
#Israel-Hamas war #Hamas #Israel

Almost nothing. I think the question now is when he will physically finish his journey. They will get to him. Right now, they will try to make the situation calm down a bit, and then he will suddenly disappear from the radar. Response to the question: "What is left of Prigozhin?
#Russia

I am absolutely sure that China will not supply weapons. To Russia.
#Russia #China #War in Ukraine

Already now, at the beginning of the year, oil is below $50. And it is unlikely to become more expensive.
#Oil #Economy #Economy of Russia #Russia

I believe that it is absolutely certain that serious breakthroughs will be achieved. This is a matter of the coming weeks. The Armed Forces of Ukraine will make breakthroughs.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

As people's purchasing power declines, we will soon see a drop in housing prices.
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy

Due to the closure of enterprises and the cessation of cooperation with international companies, there will be millions of new unemployed. In Russia.
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy

And we will definitely see 200 rubles per dollar, 300 rubles per dollar... even in the legal market.
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Economy #Ruble #Dollar

I am more of a skeptic. I will explain why there will not be a real military conflict... This possibility cannot be denied; such a risk exists, and it is very serious. I am not urging anyone to relax. I try to analyze all of this with a cool head.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

Maksim Shevchenko is a smart man. He understands that his party isn’t going anywhere... Maksim, that vote won’t go to you — it will go to United Russia. Because your party isn’t making it through. He’s saying that the “Freedom and Justice” party won’t pass the 5% threshold in the upcoming elections.