Predictions and promises monitor

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#Hamas

Authors
19
Predictions
22
Verified
7
Came true
29%
Complex
86%
Confident
57%

Vitaly Portnikov

Our goal is that by November 2028, when we are discussing the potential winner of the U.S. presidential election, we should have at least a 20 percent chance that this winner will not be dealing with ending the Russia-Ukraine war. It's quite possible that by then, we will still be addressing the issue of ending the Russia-Ukraine war. I believe, however, that the war in the Middle East will end sooner. The war in the Middle East will end before 2028.
Expected
#Middle East #Israel #Gaza #Iran #Lebanon #Hamas #Hezbollah #Israel-Hamas war
ru → en

Iliya Kusa

Most likely, it will all end up just being a freeze, as it has happened before. There will be some sort of middle ground compromise where Israeli forces, for example, will withdraw from most of Gaza, but may maintain a presence in a buffer zone to prevent new attacks by militants. The entire issue will be frozen under the pretext of restarting the negotiation process. I think this is the most realistic scenario right now. There will be a freeze in the war between Israel and Hamas.
Expected
#Israel-Hamas war #Israel #Gaza #Hamas #Middle East
ru → en

David Sharp

The wars in the Middle East will not end for a long time... and 2024 will be a year of war. Answer to the question: 'Will we see the end of the war in the Middle East in 2024?'
Expected
#Israel-Hamas war #Israel #Gaza #Hamas
ru → en

Alfred Koch

According to the finance minister's assessment, the war will last until the end of February... if there is no escalation and if Hezbollah does not come from the North... Israel will manage with Hamas and Gaza in the remaining two months - January and February. That's how I, and not just I, view this war.
Did not come true
#Israel-Hamas war #Israel #Hamas #Gaza
ru → en

Alfred Koch

No, it won't be as prolonged. In response to the question: "2023 is another war that started with Hamas's attack on Israel... will it be as prolonged as ours?" (like the war in Ukraine)
Did not come true
#Israel-Hamas war #Israel #Hamas
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I believe the conflict in Israel will come to an end. I mean in southern Israel, in the Gaza Strip. I think they will deal with Hamas... it will be over in January-February, there will be no difference. But when they say that they will be fighting for years – that won't happen.
Did not come true
#Israel-Hamas war #Israel #Hamas #Gaza
ru → en

Arti Green

I believe that Israel will indeed carry out this ground operation. It will be very slow. That's my prediction – it will be very slow. This is due to the fact that the most valuable asset in the Israeli army is its soldiers, and they will take care to protect them.
Completely came true
#Israel-Hamas war #Israel #Hamas #Gaza
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I think negotiations are underway regarding the hostages... I believe that this will not be successful. Hamas will not release these people. They will not release them.
Expected
#Israel-Hamas war #Hamas #Israel
ru → en

Arkady Babchenko

I believe that this time the existence of the Gaza Strip will be reduced to zero... There will be no more Gaza Strip... In what form, I do not know... There will be complete Israeli control, the Israeli army... there will be no autonomy there. I have no doubts that there will be no more Gaza Strip.
Expected
#Gaza #Israel-Hamas war #Hamas #Israel
ru → en

Yulia Latynina

I have a feeling that the leadership of Hamas will simply not exist; the people who made those decisions will not be alive within at most few months.
Completely came true
#Israel-Hamas war #Hamas #Israel
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

A week for the attempt to free the hostages. Two weeks for the complete elimination of Hamas. And the fourth week – well, to address the issue with the sponsors... a month. Regarding the timeline of Israel's war against Hamas.
Did not come true
#Israel-Hamas war #Israel #Hamas
ru → en

Yurii Romanenko

Hamas can significantly change the geopolitical landscape in this way if Israel does not completely defeat them. And I think it's unlikely that Israel will be able to completely destroy them, because it will require an operation that involves huge resources, and they will need to enter the Gaza Strip and clear everything out...
Expected
#Israel-Hamas war #Israel #Hamas #Gaza
ru → en