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Predictions and promises monitor

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#Iran

Authors
33
Predictions
51
Verified
16
Came true
56%
Complex
69%
Confident
38%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Aleksey Pilko

Personally, I don’t think there’s a very high likelihood that the Americans might launch a military campaign against Iran — the chances are low, but not zero.
Expected
#Iran #USA
ru → en

Dina Lisnyansky

A military campaign against Iran... I am inclined to believe that such a confrontation is apparently inevitable now, meaning it will happen, and it will happen quite soon. We won't discuss exactly how soon — days, weeks, it doesn't matter. It will happen in the near future, that’s clear. As for negotiations, apparently, there will be no negotiations at this moment because those negotiations also depended on the reformist, relatively moderate wing of the phalanx in the Iranian parliament.
Expected
#Iran
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

And the reason for this is that it’s yet another message to Tehran—look, the bombs have arrived, we are ready, so think faster about the deal before it's too late. And this whole media wave about Israel striking in the coming months, but no later than May-June, is a threat meant to push the Iranians to quickly accept Trump’s generous offer. They won’t agree, so these bombs will come in handy.
Expected
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Abbas Gallyamov

Well, look, Iran is to blame itself. First of all, the regime will collapse soon, so to speak, any day now.
Expected
#Iran
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

Sooner or later, Iran will become a nuclear power. No military operation will stop it, unless a full-scale war is waged against Iran.
Expected
#Iran #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Alexander Demchenko

Don’t you have the same feeling? Because I do—that the Iranian regime won’t exist in the coming years, maybe even next year under Trump.
Expected
#Iran
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

But in any case, as I believe, until January 20, until Trump’s inauguration, Israel will not take any decisive action in this direction. Regarding Iran.
Completely came true
#Israel #Iran #Trump #USA
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

A very positive effect on the whole Ukraine issue will, of course, come from Israel's victory on the Middle Eastern front, which is also likely to happen within these next three months.
Partially came true
#Israel #Middle East #Gaza #Lebanon #Iran
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Right now, such a strike would be an unnecessary setback for Iran in the current context. Such a strike might even benefit Trump, who is fiercely opposed to Iran... I would say with a high degree of probability that there won’t be a strong response at this time. They may put on a show for appearance’s sake. The fact is, Iran itself and its proxies are in a state of disarray after all these Israeli strikes. Iran is unlikely to deliver a powerful strike on Israel despite the heightened rhetoric.
Expected
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

Mikhail Krutikhin

In my opinion, until the U.S. elections are concluded and the American stance on the Iran-Israel conflict becomes clear, Iran is unlikely to take any action, and it seems that Israel will refrain from doing so as well.
Completely came true
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Iran will soon get this bomb with the help of North Korea and Moscow. I think they will acquire nuclear weapons unless Israel carries out preemptive strikes.
Expected
#Iran #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Grigory Tamar

I believe that in the coming days, some very unexpected and quite impressive events will take place on Iranian territory, which will fundamentally change the entire situation in the region.
Did not come true
#Iran
ru → en

Aleksandr Morozov

My current prediction is that Israel will not carry out strikes against Iran... The logic that will prevail is focused on maintaining the possibility of further diplomacy between Iran and the West.
Expected
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Vitaly Portnikov

Our goal is that by November 2028, when we are discussing the potential winner of the U.S. presidential election, we should have at least a 20 percent chance that this winner will not be dealing with ending the Russia-Ukraine war. It's quite possible that by then, we will still be addressing the issue of ending the Russia-Ukraine war. I believe, however, that the war in the Middle East will end sooner. The war in the Middle East will end before 2028.
Expected
#Middle East #Israel #Gaza #Iran #Lebanon #Hamas #Hezbollah #Israel-Hamas war
ru → en

Gennady Gudkov

The strike that will inevitably happen. Israel will still strike Iran. It will be a very serious and powerful strike. We can see the determination.
Partially came true
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

Yevgenia Albats

It’s clear that years of war lie ahead. And how happy Putin must be that there’s less and less written about how he’s killing people in Ukraine, and all the attention is once again focused on the Middle East.
Expected
#Middle East #Israel #Iran #Gaza #Lebanon
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

I think so, definitely. Netanyahu needs a major war. He sees that he’s not provoking anything, whether it’s the assassination of Hezbollah leadership, the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, or the genocide of the Lebanese and Palestinian populations—he's not provoking Iran either. In response to the question: "Do you think Israel will strike Iran before the elections?" (Before the 2024 U.S. presidential elections)
Completely came true
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Biden stated today that he considers Israel's retaliatory strikes against Iran, particularly on nuclear facilities, to be impractical... It seems that one can predict that this strike will occur right after the holiday ends. There are no grounds to think that it will be canceled. However, it will not be a large-scale operation; rather, it will be targeted strikes on selected objectives, military targets, and possibly energy infrastructure facilities. But regarding the nuclear facilities, it is unclear whether Israel will decide to act. In my opinion, no. Israel will soon strike Iran, but not on nuclear facilities.
Expected
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

One Israeli strike on Iran will follow within a few days, I believe, to ensure everything is prepared. It will lead to a tectonic shift in the Middle East.
Did not come true
#Israel #Iran #Middle East
ru → en

Evgeny Savostianov

So, ahead of us is the continuation of this series: Israel’s final showdown with the bad guys surrounding it. The U.S. elections are slowing things down… But after the elections, even before the final results are in—which could take weeks—I think things will move quickly. First, a war on Lebanese soil, and then strikes on Iran targeting the bases of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Did not come true
#Iran #Israel #Lebanon
ru → en

Mikhail Krutikhin

I think Iran will recover after all. I do not expect a major war there.
Expected
#Iran
ru → en

Sean Bell

Two sorts of ballistic missiles from Iran... We understand that Russian soldiers have been in Iran doing training for the last few weeks and while reports of this are incredibly sensitive, the feed I've had is that it is imminent. So it's a matter of days. Russia will receive missiles from Iran in the near future.
Cannot be verified
#Russia #Iran #War in Ukraine
en

Alexander Toporin

Today's attack on the Kursk region is, for Zelensky, nothing more than a PR move... Yermak and the entire team at Bankova understand that, any day now, a conflict will begin between Israel, Lebanon, and Iran. And then, for some time, no one will remember about Ukraine. > any day now, a conflict will begin between Israel, Lebanon, and Iran
Did not come true
#Israel #Lebanon #Iran #Ukraine #War in Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Valery Solovei

I don't think so. I don't see any prerequisites for a war in the Middle East. The answer to the question: "Will there be a major war in the Middle East?"
Expected
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Netanyahu really wanted this. There will be no war. Response to the question: 'Will there be a major war between Israel and Iran?'
Expected
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Iran, elections. Second round. Pezeshkian received 44% in the first round and is considered a liberal. Jalili received 40% in the first round and is considered a conservative. However, the candidate who took third place with 13%, also a conservative, has already called for votes for Jalili. Therefore, the prediction is for Jalili. But still, the prediction is approximate.
Did not come true
#Iran
ru → en

Darya Mitina

The next President of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be Ghalibaf. Remember this tweet. Ghalibaf Mohammad-Bagher - Iranian statesman.
Expected
#Iran
ru → en

Sergei Markov

In the event of the death of Iranian President Raisi, there will not be a major internal crisis in Iran. The real leader of Iran is not the president, but the spiritual leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. There will simply be new presidential elections.
Completely came true
#Iran
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

Iran is preparing for war with Israel, but has allowed for the possibility of refraining from attacking Israel if the UN condemns the strike on Damascus, which seems unlikely to me. This means the US must condemn the strike on Damascus. This will not happen.
Expected
#Iran #UN
ru → en

Yevgenia Albats

Iran is a more problematic story. Iran could probably strike at Israel. But after that, of course, there will be no Iran.
Expected
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

Taras Berezovets

There are talks that Iran threatens to start a war if Israel begins a military operation in the Gaza Strip. If a war does start, Israel will wipe Iran and its army off the face of the earth in a matter of days. They won't even need to conduct a ground operation for that.
Expected
#Israel #Iran #Israel-Hamas war #Gaza
ru → en

Sergey Aslanyan

And this SAIPA... These cars, about which we have already been warned that they will come to us from June 1st. They are unlikely to arrive. Iranian SAIPA cars will not appear in Russia from June 1, 2023.
Completely came true
#Russia #Iran
ru → en

Oleg Zhdanov

Iran announced that they have developed a long-range cruise missile capable of flying 1,650 km... Will this missile appear in the armed forces of the Russian Federation in the near future? I don't think so.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Iran #Russia
ru → en

Gleb Pyanykh

No, I don't see such an idea from anyone, why? The answer to the question "Will the U.S. invade Iran?"
Expected
#Iran #USA
ru → en

Mikhail Krutikhin

A hope has emerged; they will not be able to suppress this movement... I believe that it will become increasingly difficult to suppress the current wave. The wave of protests in Iran
Expected
#Iran
ru → en

Leonid Volkov

No, they won't attack. Answer to the question: 'Will Israel and Azerbaijan attack Iran?'
Expected
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Yulia Latynina

So it seems that Iranian missiles will not arrive. Iran has decided to quietly back away from this disgrace. Referring to the possible supply of Iranian missiles to Russia
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Iran #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

Still, if we take Iran... is there a chance for some kind of revolutionary scenario? Well, I think not... unless the military gets involved. About a possible revolution in Iran due to the September protests, and stating that the military is unlikely to get involved.
Completely came true
#Iran
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

Israel will not allow this; it will eliminate this nuclear threat. But that's not even the worst thing that will happen to Iran. Israel will not allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons.
Expected
#Iran #Israel #Nuclear weapons
ru → en