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Predictions and promises monitor

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#Iran

Authors
55
Predictions
104
Verified
20
Came true
50%
Complex
75%
Confident
40%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Oleksiy Arestovych

I think Iran's acquisition of an atomic bomb is practically inevitable now, sooner or later. Because they will immediately resume their nuclear program—they have already resumed it—and try to achieve it. Whether Pakistan or China helps them, or they accidentally find a car with a nuclear bomb parked in the mountains, that's a secondary matter.
Expected
#Iran #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Iran will become part of a single military-economic system (along with China) oriented towards China and will be under the Chinese umbrella, under Chinese protection. Answer to the question: "Maxim, what will happen to Iran in the future?"
Expected
#Iran #China
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

If the Iranian regime remains, especially after this war, will it not try to strengthen its potential? Will it not try to acquire a nuclear bomb again? That is why I believe the best option is, of course, a change of regime in Iran. But that does not seem possible yet.
Expected
#Iran
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

Let them believe that defeat is not final, that it is not capitulation. But now they will be offered a deal and asked to abandon their nuclear ambitions. They will ponder it for a long time—and most likely agree. After all, on the other side of the scale lies the bombing of Iran or actions that would remove the Ayatollahs.
Expected
#Iran #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Ezra Mor

The Gaza Strip must be destroyed, and immediately afterward the Islamic Republic of Iran must also be wiped out. Personally, I’m betting on late October to early November.
Expected
#Gaza #Iran #Israel
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

The U.S. military remains the most powerful force in the world. And any attempt to hit Israel with a nuclear bomb would provoke a U.S. response against Iran so overwhelming that it would be catastrophic.
Expected
#Israel #Iran #USA #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Sergey Grabskiy

As of today, based on the indicators we see, there is no discussion of any ground operation in the next six months. In response to the question: “There are protests across the United States against U.S. involvement in the war. How do you assess the likelihood of a ground operation?” (in Iran)
Expected
#Iran #USA
ru → en

Tatyana Popova

They all talk about the Strait of Hormuz as if it were a given… It seems to me that if they go through with it, it will guarantee the overthrow of the Ayatollah regime.
Expected
#Iran
ru → en

Daniel Sachkov

I’ve said from the very beginning that there will be a war with Iran. It doesn’t depend on which foot Trump got out of bed on, nor on anyone else. This is the mission he came to carry out. He will see it through—or he won’t be around… There will be a war with Iran. The U.S. war with Iran.
Expected
#Iran #USA #Trump
ru → en

Yulia Latynina

I’m not very optimistic about a regime change in Iran, because war usually serves to unite the population around the ruling authorities.
Expected
#Iran
ru → en

Ian Matveev

I think Trump is trying to pressure the Iranian government into making some concessions, cutting a deal, but I don’t think he’ll succeed and will just back off. He’ll be his typical self—talking about how “we’ll hit you hard if you don’t agree”. Nobody will agree, and he won’t actually follow through; he’ll just walk away.
Expected
#Trump #USA #Iran
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

Quite soon, nothing will prevent the Israeli authorities from announcing that the objectives of the special military operation have been achieved and that Iran no longer has either a nuclear program or the people who planned to implement it, because the maximum program — some new government in Iran loyal to Israel — is clearly unattainable.
Expected
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

Right now, the main topic of discussion around the world is, of course, whether Donald Trump will enter the war between Israel and Iran or not. To put it briefly, my answer is that he most likely won't and will be too afraid.
Expected
#Iran #Israel #Trump #USA
ru → en

Ramis Yunus

What are the possibilities for resistance? Look at how many cruise missiles Iran was launching at the beginning, and how many it launches today. There is basically no resistance. All this bravado that we hear in the informational space — it's all just blah blah blah. And no one is standing up for them. So nothing here will last long. I don't foresee any half-measures here. The war between Israel and Iran will not be long and will not involve half-measures.
Expected
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

Oleg Tsaryov

I think the U.S. and Israel will simply bomb Iran into dust, leaving it in ruins. However, they won’t touch the oil and gas infrastructure — to avoid triggering a spike in fuel prices. The strikes will target uranium enrichment centers and military production facilities. They’ll declare it a victory. Iran essentially has no air defense. That’s why Israel and the U.S. will do whatever they want. There’s no way to stop them. There will be no ground operation.
Expected
#Iran #Israel #USA
ru → en

Vision of the future

The National Security Council under Trump has come to an end. Most likely, a decision will be made to finish off Iran. It’s easier to demonstrate power than to pretend to be a peacemaker. That way, the essence of power is clearer. Anyone who holds even a little bit of power is obliged to kick someone, so that others don’t come too close. Once the decision to crush Iran is made, the Pentagon will get involved in operations with Israel. American refueling aircraft will work with the Israeli Air Force. Then, Tomahawk strikes will begin as a show of force to third countries. This act of vanity and muscle-flexing will be crowned by strikes using high-power deep-penetration bombs.
Expected
#Iran #USA #Israel
ru → en

Yigal Levin

Indicators suggest that the Americans will likely get involved... It's important to understand that the Americans—especially their air forces—have tools and capabilities dozens of times greater than those of Israel. This, by the way, is a good point. If this is what Israel did to Iran, then what are the capabilities of the U.S.? I think they will get involved. In the end, Trump will probably try to claim the credit for himself, like “Look, I’m the victor”
Expected
#Iran #USA #Trump #Israel
ru → en

Michael Nacke

Some part of Iran’s political elite, I believe led by Khamenei (he is not being killed because his death could trigger a civil war), will simply agree to Israel’s terms. They have President Pezeshkian, who is quite pro-Western, and I think Khamenei will simply declare that the era of trying to destroy Israel is over, that it’s time to live normally, to make deals and all that. And that will be the end of it. But I make these assumptions based on the rational behavior of actors, which does not always reflect reality.
Expected
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

I have a feeling that the Americans will end up entering the war after all. Trump issued a statement saying that he strongly warns the Iranian regime against attacking our forces and facilities in the Middle East...
Expected
#USA #Iran #Israel
ru → en

Ezra Mor

Israel declared from day one that the goal of this war was not to overthrow the regime in Iran; we did not have such a goal. Our goal was to destroy Iran’s nuclear program. Therefore, if Iran were to truly and sincerely agree—which is unlikely—to the complete dismantling of its entire nuclear system, including the civilian part, plus disarmament, plus renunciation of missile development... Iran will not agree to dismantle its nuclear system.
Expected
#Iran #Nuclear weapons #Israel
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

I can say that Israel will lose because the goals of this war — the destruction of Iran and regime change — are unattainable.
Expected
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Dmitry Gordon

This is not a prediction. It seems to me that we're talking about a change of the Iranian regime. Protests will begin, and the ayatollahs' regime will not withstand them.
Expected
#Iran
ru → en

Dmitry Gordon

I think that until Israel finishes bombing all the nuclear facilities—until it completely destroys the nuclear program—it won’t stop. Iran's nuclear facilities.
Expected
#Iran #Israel #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Look, the important forecast regarding Iran is that this won’t last long. Why? Because a ground operation is impossible. It’s not feasible because the countries are located far from each other. Who would land troops where, and how would they fight? Iran against Israel and Israel against Iran—it’s a remote war: a missile war, a drone war. There might be a special operation, but this is not a ground war. The second reason is that Israel doesn’t need Iran—it’s not planning to capture it or annex it to its territory. The current war between Israel and Iran will not last long.
Expected
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Will Iran block the Strait of Hormuz? My prediction is no. My prediction is no. Why? Because then they would also lose Khark Island, the oil terminal, the refineries, and essentially their entire oil industry.
Expected
#Iran #Oil
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

I don't believe this will cause any long-term or persistently high change in oil prices — they’ll spike for a while and then start to dip again. Due to the ongoing war between Israel and Iran, oil prices have temporarily risen and will drop again later.
Expected
#Oil #Economy #Iran #Israel
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

I can say with confidence that in the coming days, Erdogan and Aliyev will make a statement expressing concern for the safety of the 30 million Azerbaijani population in this chaotic situation.
Did not come true
#Iran
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

If Iran does not deliver a devastating strike against Israel now—one that kills many Israelis—then in two days the European Union and everyone else will gather their resolve and impose sanctions against Israel.
Did not come true
#Israel #Iran #European Union
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

Israel is counting on a long timeframe — up to two weeks. Of course, in one form or another, either the physical elimination of these ayatollahs or something else. I believe the regime in Iran will change within those two weeks.
Did not come true
#Iran
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I'll make a prediction. I believe that Iran will not succeed in inflicting very serious damage on Israel — that’s my forecast. Yes, some missiles, Shaheds, and ballistic rockets may reach Israeli territory, possibly even some military sites, but they will not cause significant damage. In the current phase of the war between Israel and Iran.
Expected
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

If there is a strike on the oil and gas sector, then according to my estimates, the increase in hydrocarbon prices — for example, oil — will be around 17–22 percent. A strike by Israel on Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure.
Expected
#Oil #Economy #Iran #Israel
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

I think so. This process is not quick. Israel has certain limitations, including with its armed forces. Iran and the Islamic world must somehow respond to the destruction of some infrastructure. Response to the question: "Do you think this will last a month?" (The war between Israel and Iran)
Expected
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

The result will be the nuclearization of the Middle East... We should expect a nuclear Iran, and then — or perhaps even before that — a nuclear Saudi Arabia, as a consequence of today’s strikes.
Expected
#Iran #Saudi Arabia #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

And that was the key threat — that if Iran were attacked, it would block the Strait of Hormuz, halting all oil traffic, causing an oil shortage, and sending oil prices skyrocketing. Right now, this scenario is not unfolding... There is no reason to block the Strait of Hormuz.
Expected
#Iran
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

Oil prices could have steadily gone up if we were heading toward a scenario of a prolonged regional war between Israel and Iran. At the moment, I don’t see the prospects of such a war. This is because Israel and Iran are located far from each other. They cannot fight with physical armies — they can only exchange strikes.
Expected
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

I believe that Iran will not fall like Hezbollah in Lebanon or Assad in Syria, but will withstand this blow, consolidate, and be able to regenerate its capabilities.
Expected
#Iran
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

This is simply a reason for the bulls to push prices up. They managed to do that. This is a temporary phenomenon. I, of course, expect a response from Iran — Shahed drones will fly, they already seem to be flying, missiles will be launched from Iran toward Israel, but I do not expect any catastrophes with oil exports from the Persian Gulf. Therefore, for 2-3 days everything will fluctuate at high levels, and then from Monday everything will drop unless there is some kind of nuclear escalation. Oil prices, which surged due to Israel’s strike on Iran, will start to decline from Monday.
Expected
#Oil #Economy #Iran #Israel
ru → en

Win/Win

Another wave of turmoil and near-nuclear war between Israel and Iran will predictably end in de-escalation and feigned mutual strikes, you'll see. Then they'll agree to negotiate, because no one in our world is going to fight to mutual destruction.
Expected
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

Yevgeny Kiselyov

My intuition tells me that Donald won't dare to resolve the Iran problem by military means. In response to the question: "You're watching Trump. Will he go for a military solution to the Iran issue, or will he back off?"
Expected
#Iran #Trump #USA
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

Netanyahu's domestic political situation is difficult. I think he will take a historic step — without waiting for or asking Trump's permission, he will launch a strike on Israel. He misspoke — from the context, it’s clear that he meant "on Iran," not "on Israel."
Expected
#Israel #Iran #Trump #USA
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

It's obvious that Iran is stalling, and has been for years—more than a decade. And all of this will end the way we want it to: with the physical destruction of Iran’s nuclear program, nuclear weapons, and missile systems.
Expected
#Iran #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Ariel Cohen

I'm shocked when someone opens their mouth and says that we need to deal with Hamas, we need to deal with Iran, and that dismantling Iran’s enrichment system by the Iranians themselves is preferable to bombing those facilities. Iran will never, ever agree to a complete dismantling of the entire system. I’m willing to bet a bottle of whatever you name that Iran itself will not go for full dismantling. On Iran's uranium enrichment systems.
Expected
#Iran #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

The Iran issue ranks second. On Trump’s scale, I would give it a weight of 3 out of 10. We know that this issue will be resolved, and very quickly. The nuclear program will be stopped through negotiations.
Expected
#Iran #USA #Trump
ru → en

Ramis Yunus

I can say this publicly—my opinion is that there definitely won’t be a full-scale war, nothing like "Desert Storm," nothing like what happened in Iraq with Saddam Hussein. That’s not going to happen. But a targeted strike on nuclear facilities... that would actually be good for him (Trump). A full-scale war in the Middle East involving the U.S. and Iran won’t happen, but targeted strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities are possible.
Expected
#Iran #USA #Middle East #Trump
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Over these 4 years, if Trump fails to achieve peaceful negotiations with Russia and Iran, then by the end of his term he might resort to war with Iran, for example.
Expected
#USA #Iran #Trump
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Back in the summer of last year, I said that we would still see Trump in Tehran. And that’s most likely how it will be — just like we saw him meeting with Kim Jong Un.
Expected
#Trump #Iran #USA
ru → en

Vyacheslav Maltsev

Trump will never go to war with China. He won't even go to war with Iran, believe me. The most he’s capable of is fighting the Houthis. Response to the question: "Slava, what do you think, will Trump give the green light for a ground operation against China?"
Expected
#USA #Iran #China #Trump
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Why is Whitkoff going everywhere? Now he’s gone to Iran. They’ll come to an agreement on the money. But the issue of Iran’s nuclear program won’t be resolved. That’s my prediction.
Expected
#Iran #Nuclear weapons #USA
ru → en

Vyacheslav Maltsev

A war between the U.S. and Iran would benefit China the most... And if it happens — mark my words — a nuclear strike on the U.S. will be inevitable; it will definitely happen. And it doesn’t really matter who launches it — it could be Russia, or someone else. China will try to pull everyone into the war.
Expected
#USA #Iran #China
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

Personally, I don’t think there’s a very high likelihood that the Americans might launch a military campaign against Iran — the chances are low, but not zero.
Expected
#Iran #USA
ru → en

Yigal Levin

It seems to me that with Iran, everything is coming to a point where either they will have to start a direct dialogue with the Americans, as the Americans want, or the Americans will start bombing them. I don't see a third possible outcome. We'll see in the coming weeks or months.
Expected
#Iran #USA
ru → en

Dina Lisnyansky

A military campaign against Iran... I am inclined to believe that such a confrontation is apparently inevitable now, meaning it will happen, and it will happen quite soon. We won't discuss exactly how soon — days, weeks, it doesn't matter. It will happen in the near future, that’s clear. As for negotiations, apparently, there will be no negotiations at this moment because those negotiations also depended on the reformist, relatively moderate wing of the phalanx in the Iranian parliament.
Expected
#Iran
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

And the reason for this is that it’s yet another message to Tehran—look, the bombs have arrived, we are ready, so think faster about the deal before it's too late. And this whole media wave about Israel striking in the coming months, but no later than May-June, is a threat meant to push the Iranians to quickly accept Trump’s generous offer. They won’t agree, so these bombs will come in handy.
Expected
#Israel #Iran
ru → en

Abbas Gallyamov

Well, look, Iran is to blame itself. First of all, the regime will collapse soon, so to speak, any day now.
Expected
#Iran
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

Sooner or later, Iran will become a nuclear power. No military operation will stop it, unless a full-scale war is waged against Iran.
Expected
#Iran #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Alexander Demchenko

Don’t you have the same feeling? Because I do—that the Iranian regime won’t exist in the coming years, maybe even next year under Trump.
Expected
#Iran
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

But in any case, as I believe, until January 20, until Trump’s inauguration, Israel will not take any decisive action in this direction. Regarding Iran.
Completely came true
#Israel #Iran #Trump #USA
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

A very positive effect on the whole Ukraine issue will, of course, come from Israel's victory on the Middle Eastern front, which is also likely to happen within these next three months.
Partially came true
#Israel #Middle East #Gaza #Lebanon #Iran
ru → en