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No, Russia won’t withdraw from it. It may even go on to sign a New START-4. But suspending the current treaty — yes, grounding strategic aviation in hangars — yes, that’s possible. Russia might go for that. Answer to the question: "Will yesterday's event lead to a complete withdrawal of Russia from New START?"
#Russia #Nuclear weapons

Theoretically, it’s possible, but practically, I think the Americans will withdraw from the Ukrainian conflict within 1–2 years. Things are heating up too seriously around Taiwan. In response to the question: "Is it possible that China, through third countries, will try to drag the US into a hot conflict with Russia in order to buy time and rearm?"
#USA #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #China #Russia #Taiwan

Two major powers, one with a population of 1.5 billion people, the other with a population of 220 million people, and they are on the brink of war. However, many experts — and I agree with them — tend to believe that there will not be a serious war. The sides will exchange airstrikes, they already have, and afterward there will be a pause and negotiations will begin. India may consider itself satisfied, or maybe not, and Pakistan will respond.
#India #Pakistan

I don't think so. In response to the question: "Do you think there will be an Easter truce in Ukraine?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

If the war continues specifically with Ukraine, there won’t be a mobilization. But if there’s a clash with NATO or a group of NATO countries, then mobilization will definitely happen.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #NATO

In November 2028, there will be the final decisive battle. The Democrats will nominate a candidate — most likely not Kamala Harris, but some young, promising up-and-coming figure — and he will most likely run against J.D. Vance.
#2028 United States presidential election #USA #Elections

The Democrats will take at least one chamber of Congress in November 2026.
#USA #Elections

Personally, I don’t think there’s a very high likelihood that the Americans might launch a military campaign against Iran — the chances are low, but not zero.
#Iran #USA

U.S. President Donald Trump recently even proposed a 50 percent cut in defense spending. He made this proposal to Russia and China. But of course, this is pure demagoguery. In reality, under Donald Trump’s administration, American defense spending will increase.
#USA #Trump

Over the past week and the one before it, as well as over the past few months, there’s been a lot of talk that the U.S. might either withdraw from NATO or weaken its ties with the alliance. Well, I state with full confidence: this is complete nonsense. The United States will never give up such a tool of military and political dominance in Europe as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
#NATO #USA

Erdoğan is putting up fierce resistance, and most likely he has enough force at his disposal. To suppress the protests.
#Turkey #Erdogan

Domestic political tensions in Brazil are sharply escalating. But for now, Lula da Silva’s position is quite strong. And most likely, he will defeat his opponents, including Jair Bolsonaro.
#Brazil

It’s possible that France might want to send troops to Ukraine on its own. However, it’s unclear how they would be supplied there, and what would happen if the Russian army strikes French forces. In that case, Paris would find itself in a very difficult position — either start a war with Russia or quietly withdraw the troops and admit military defeat. Therefore, we’ll risk making a prediction — Macron won’t send anyone anywhere. All his statements are loud but empty political PR. Until the Americans authorize the deployment of European — and specifically French — troops to Ukraine, no Europeans will appear there.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #France #Europe #USA #Russia

Sooner or later, Iran will become a nuclear power. No military operation will stop it, unless a full-scale war is waged against Iran.
#Iran #Nuclear weapons

Now Trump wants to overturn all of this. The question is whether he can succeed. The canal has been officially transferred through a formal agreement, and it is impossible to take the Panama Canal independently, separate from Panama, as in the case of Greenland, and then annex it. No. Moreover, I am convinced that if the U.S. begins aggressive actions concerning the Panama Canal, Latin American solidarity will come into play.
#Panama #USA

So, it seems Denmark has already given up Greenland, judging by the statements from the Danish side. The likely course of action will be as follows: a referendum will take place in the near future, Greenland will become independent, the Danes will leave, and then the Americans will take control of everything. From the perspective of international law, there will be no grounds for objection. Trump will gobble up Greenland in one go.
#Greenland #Denmark #USA #Trump

If there is no Turkish-American deal regarding the Syrian Kurds, there will be no serious large-scale military operation by Turkey against the Kurds.
#Turkey #Syria #Kurds

I think the conflict in Ukraine will not end by spring or summer. I believe we will see fighting throughout 2025. A likely timeframe for the end of the conflict in Ukraine would be 2026-2027.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

And if ATACMS and Storm Shadow strikes on Russian territory continue from that side, I think there will be a demonstrative strike with an Oreshnik missile on a NATO base.
#Russia #NATO #War in Ukraine

I think Russia will soon officially recognize the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan.
#Afghanistan #Russia

We'll take the risk of making a prediction. Most likely, there will be a negative response to all the points of the plan. The West will continue to pursue the same political line on Ukraine as before. Ukraine is needed as a proxy tool for the war against Russia, not as an asset for which the West would be willing to directly engage in conflict with Russia at the risk of nuclear war. Referring to Zelensky's Victory Plan.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA