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Predictions and promises monitor

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Aleksey Pilko

Historian, political scientist (Russia)

Predictions
13
Verified
0
Came true
*
Complex
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Confident
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Aleksey Pilko

U.S. President Donald Trump recently even proposed a 50 percent cut in defense spending. He made this proposal to Russia and China. But of course, this is pure demagoguery. In reality, under Donald Trump’s administration, American defense spending will increase.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

Over the past week and the one before it, as well as over the past few months, there’s been a lot of talk that the U.S. might either withdraw from NATO or weaken its ties with the alliance. Well, I state with full confidence: this is complete nonsense. The United States will never give up such a tool of military and political dominance in Europe as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Expected
#NATO #USA
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

Sooner or later, Iran will become a nuclear power. No military operation will stop it, unless a full-scale war is waged against Iran.
Expected
#Iran #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

And if ATACMS and Storm Shadow strikes on Russian territory continue from that side, I think there will be a demonstrative strike with an Oreshnik missile on a NATO base.
Expected
#Russia #NATO #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

We'll take the risk of making a prediction. Most likely, there will be a negative response to all the points of the plan. The West will continue to pursue the same political line on Ukraine as before. Ukraine is needed as a proxy tool for the war against Russia, not as an asset for which the West would be willing to directly engage in conflict with Russia at the risk of nuclear war. Referring to Zelensky's Victory Plan.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

So, it seems Denmark has already given up Greenland, judging by the statements from the Danish side. The likely course of action will be as follows: a referendum will take place in the near future, Greenland will become independent, the Danes will leave, and then the Americans will take control of everything. From the perspective of international law, there will be no grounds for objection. Trump will gobble up Greenland in one go.
Expected December 31, 2027
#Greenland #Denmark #USA #Trump
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

Domestic political tensions in Brazil are sharply escalating. But for now, Lula da Silva’s position is quite strong. And most likely, he will defeat his opponents, including Jair Bolsonaro.
Expected December 31, 2026
#Brazil
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

Now Trump wants to overturn all of this. The question is whether he can succeed. The canal has been officially transferred through a formal agreement, and it is impossible to take the Panama Canal independently, separate from Panama, as in the case of Greenland, and then annex it. No. Moreover, I am convinced that if the U.S. begins aggressive actions concerning the Panama Canal, Latin American solidarity will come into play.
Expected December 31, 2026
#Panama #USA
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

I think the conflict in Ukraine will not end by spring or summer. I believe we will see fighting throughout 2025. A likely timeframe for the end of the conflict in Ukraine would be 2026-2027.
Expected December 31, 2026
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

Erdoğan is putting up fierce resistance, and most likely he has enough force at his disposal. To suppress the protests.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Turkey #Erdogan
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

It’s possible that France might want to send troops to Ukraine on its own. However, it’s unclear how they would be supplied there, and what would happen if the Russian army strikes French forces. In that case, Paris would find itself in a very difficult position — either start a war with Russia or quietly withdraw the troops and admit military defeat. Therefore, we’ll risk making a prediction — Macron won’t send anyone anywhere. All his statements are loud but empty political PR. Until the Americans authorize the deployment of European — and specifically French — troops to Ukraine, no Europeans will appear there.
Expected December 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #France #Europe #USA #Russia
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

If there is no Turkish-American deal regarding the Syrian Kurds, there will be no serious large-scale military operation by Turkey against the Kurds.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Turkey #Syria #Kurds
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

I think Russia will soon officially recognize the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Afghanistan #Russia
ru → en