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Predictions and promises monitor

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#Elections

Authors
86
Predictions
157
Verified
116
Came true
69%
Complex
31%
Confident
38%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Mark Feygin

Trump won’t stay on in four years, no matter what anyone says about a third term or a swap with Vance. I don’t believe in that — I think there’s absolutely no chance.
Expected
#USA #Trump #Elections
ru → en

Sergey Sanovich

If Trump tries, they won’t let him. That would require violating two constitutional amendments: not just the 22nd, which limits the number of terms, but also, it seems, the 12th, which concerns who can be vice president. A vice president can only be someone who is eligible to be president — and he isn’t. And I believe even the Supreme Court would rule that he can’t. But I don’t think he’ll even try — mainly because of his age.
Expected
#USA #2028 United States presidential election #Elections #Trump
ru → en

Mark Feygin

There will be midterm elections there in November 2026. My cautious prediction is that the Republican Party will lose them.
Expected
#USA #Elections
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

Something tells me that Trump is planning to run for another term, despite the relevant amendment to the U.S. Constitution.
Expected
#Trump #USA #Elections
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

In any case, Alternative for Germany, according to my forecast, will gain a maximum of 22%. That’s how it seems to me, though I could be wrong.
Completely came true
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

This is related to the anticipation of the presidential elections in Ukraine. It is already clear that the elections will take place within the next six months at most.
Expected
#Ukraine #Elections
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

The elections in Ukraine are now obviously going to happen, but something tells me that Zelensky’s main problem is not Poroshenko at all. Rather, it is his increasingly apparent unsuitability for this position—both for Trump and for Putin. All parties involved in the deal would prefer to see someone as president of Ukraine who has made no prior commitments, has never called anyone a murderer, and has not made hundreds of other statements that are now awkward for the high-level negotiating sides. So, I would bet that Zelensky will either lose the election or suddenly decide not to run, so as not to cast a shadow over the brave new world.
Expected
#Ukraine #Zelensky #Elections
ru → en

Sergey Tsiplyaev

The CDU/CSU will most likely win the elections, but their result will be around 30%. The German political landscape is highly fragmented, with no party coming close to the 50% mark. A coalition will have to be formed. It is clear that the CDU/CSU is unlikely to take a step toward forming a coalition with Alternative for Germany.
Completely came true
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Dmitry Bykov

I may be wrong, but it seems to me that Alternative for Germany, which everyone fears and which supposedly has around 20%, will face a complete disaster in this election. And I know why. Because about three days before the election, a dossier will be published revealing its dependence on the Kremlin.
Did not come true
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Tatyana Felgenhauer

I don't think that AfD will achieve victory in this term. Perhaps in the next term, they will perform more confidently. By AfD, she means "Alternative für Deutschland" (AfD), as it is called in German.
Completely came true
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Leonid Volkov

I made a prediction on the best political show that I believe there will be interesting developments and opportunities in September 2025. There are few available positions, many contenders, and regional elites have fewer tools left to determine who holds more power. Answer to the question: "What do you think about the municipal elections on Unified Voting Day 2025? The prospects of Smart Voting."
Expected
#Russia #Elections
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

Elections in Germany are coming up, and most likely Merz will win, as he is undoubtedly much more decisive.
Completely came true
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Dmitry Gordon

Merz is likely to win, we understand that. What will it change? A decisive leader, Merz, will replace the indecisive bureaucrat Scholz.
Completely came true
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Stanislav Kucher

The midterm elections for Congress will take place in a year and a half, and most likely, the Democrats will make a comeback. If this does not happen, it will be a historic precedent.
Expected
#USA #Elections
ru → en

Leonid Volkov

I see the future of FBK as a political force participating in competitive elections and playing an important role in the Russian parliament… of course, absolutely without any issues. Answer to the question: "Will you pass the parliamentary threshold?"
Expected
#Russia #Elections
ru → en

Vitaly Dymarsky

Well, I think it will be the CDU. In response to the question: "What are your predictions, who do you think will win?" (In the upcoming elections in Germany)
Completely came true
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

Here’s my prediction: in the presidential election after the war, both Zelensky and Zaluzhny won’t be on the ballot simultaneously. Either neither Zelensky nor Zaluzhny will be there, or Zelensky will be, but not Zaluzhny, or Zaluzhny will, but not Zelensky. That’s my prediction. In Ukraine.
Expected
#Ukraine #Elections
ru → en

Andrii Baumeister

There is a high probability that elections will take place by mid-year. In response to the question: "Will 2025 be an election year in Ukraine?"
Expected
#Ukraine #Elections
ru → en

Dmitry Oreshkin

He’ll be left sitting in his own territory, waiting to lose the next elections, which he will certainly lose. In Slovakia, people are quite free-thinking, and there are competitive political forces. Speaking about Robert Fico.
Expected
#Slovakia #Elections
ru → en

Igor Eidman

Le Pen is far-right. The far-right in France has never been and will never be the majority in society. She might even win the first round, but she will lose to anyone in the second round.
Expected
#France #Elections
ru → en

Igor Eidman

The new chancellor will definitely not be Scholz. It is most likely to be Friedrich Merz, his competitor from another mainstream party—the Christian Democratic Union. The chancellor of Germany in 2025.
Completely came true
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Dmitry Gordon

I believe that the U.S. and the West will not recognize the new president. They will not recognize the elections. In Georgia.
Expected
#Georgia #USA #Elections
ru → en

Dmitry Bykov

I am absolutely convinced that when peace comes and elections are held according to the constitution, he will not run in those elections. I think that would be the wisest decision on his part. Speaking about Zelensky.
Expected
#Ukraine #Zelensky #Elections
ru → en

Yevgeny Kiselyov

Scholz will still lose the parliamentary elections. The next chancellor will be Friedrich Merz. The winner of the elections will be the CDU—the Christian Democratic Union.
Completely came true
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Darya Mitina

My intuition tells me that there is a very high likelihood that the same Scholz, widely known as the liverwurst, will remain in the position of Chancellor of Germany.
Did not come true
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

In 2025, the presidential election will take place. It will happen one way or another because it’s no longer possible to delay it further. In Ukraine.
Expected
#Ukraine #Elections
ru → en

Ramis Yunus

And today in Germany, Chancellor Scholz is no longer really the chancellor. In 2-3 months, he’ll be gone. A lame duck.
Completely came true
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Alexander Friedman

In the case of the German elections, everything is clear and straightforward at the moment. If there are no unforeseen events, the Christian Democrats will win, and they’ll win with a significant lead.
Completely came true
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Alfred Koch

Pistorius will likely be the leader of the Social Democrats in this election. I don’t think it will be Scholz. After all, Pistorius is a more popular figure than Scholz.
Did not come true
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

It draws the attention of European officials, which is something Georgia really needs right now. America is likely to lean toward not recognizing the election results. In Georgia.
Expected
#Georgia #USA #Elections
ru → en

Elon Musk

He will be gone in the upcoming election. Response to the request: "We need your help in Canada getting rid of Trudeau"
Expected
#Canada #Elections
en

Sergei Markov

Germany. The governing coalition has collapsed, and an acute government crisis has begun. If there are elections, the CDU leader Merz will become chancellor.
Completely came true
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Konstantin Sonin

It seems to me that expecting something similar to 2021, when there were indeed protests in Washington that ended with the storming of the Capitol and led to the loss of lives, is unlikely. I wouldn’t expect such protests, primarily because, in 2021, the election results were being contested by the sitting president.
Completely came true
#2024 United States presidential election #USA #Elections
ru → en

Nikita Vasilenko

But everything points to the coalition collapsing, and elections will be held in Germany as early as March. The current coalition in Germany will "fall apart," and early elections will take place in March.
Completely came true
#Germany #Elections
ru → en

Alon Kaisar

America has already had a Black president, and when a woman, Hillary Clinton, ran against Trump, they chose the big white man over the woman. And now, it’s both a woman and Black. I think America isn’t ready for this yet... A cautious hint that Kamala Harris will lose the election.
Completely came true
#2024 United States presidential election #KamalaHarris #USA #Elections
ru → en

Aleksandr Plyushchev

Exactly a percentage point difference. There’s no doubt that, at this rate, Sandu will pull ahead by the end of the count. She’ll win by about 2 percentage points, 51/49 in her favor.
Almost came true
#Moldova #Elections
ru → en

Pavel Sebastyanovich

There will be no elections in 2025. Because those in power are very comfortable right now: they receive salaries, go to work, get fake pensions, and nothing threatens them. Speaking about Ukraine.
Expected
#Ukraine #Elections
ru → en

Alexander Mercouris

I think that it may be difficult to get her to win the second round. Though I suspect every wire will be pulled and every trick will be played to get her across the line. But I think it is difficult after this fiasco to imagine that she will remain president of Moldova for very much long. Referring to Maia Sandu and the 2024 presidential elections in Moldova.
Expected
#Moldova #Elections
en