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Predictions and promises monitor

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Stanislav Belkovsky

Political analyst, blogger (Russia)

Predictions
52
Verified
20
Came true
75%
Complex
40%
Confident
20%
Rating
6.06
All Expected Expected soon New results

Stanislav Belkovsky

One of the ideas I proposed for Middle East peace, which should lead to the creation of a Palestinian state. Whatever Bibi Netanyahu and his supporters may say now, he himself understands perfectly well that this is unavoidable. The only questions are the timing, the format, and the nature of the Palestinian state entity.
Expected
#Palestine #Israel
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

I think the war will stop in 2025. This isn't about my ability to predict, but rather based on an analysis of the resources available to each side. These resources are depleting, and the war will have to be stopped one way or another.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

Permission to strike Russian territory with long-range weapons of Euro-Atlantic origin... I believe that this permission will be granted, that’s my prediction. Perhaps in a more limited, compromise form—allowing strikes with British-American Storm Shadow missiles and French SCALP missiles, but not with American ATACMS. Permission for Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia #United Kingdom #France
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who is most likely to be the Social Democratic Party's candidate for chancellor in the upcoming elections, replacing Olaf Scholz.
Expected
#Germany
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

Yes, to local uprisings, especially in a social context, but not to a nationwide rebellion. The regime, in this sense, is quite resilient, including from the perspective of the law enforcement apparatus. Answer to the question: "Well, is there, in your opinion, purely theoretically, something that could lead to a popular uprising?" (In Russia).
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

I think that, since Biden is currently president and the Democrats are in power, they will do everything they can to prevent unrest in advance. Back then, the unrest was partly fueled by the fact that the sitting president, Trump, was relatively lenient towards it. Even if he didn’t openly support it, he at least stirred the pot. Referring to possible unrest that could occur after the U.S. presidential elections.
Expected
#2024 United States presidential election #USA #Elections
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

A very unpopular and very unprofitable decision for Putin, he will have to go for a new partial mobilization if the war cannot be stopped in the next month.
Did not come true
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

He can remain in France, where he is not in any danger in the coming years while the judicial investigation is ongoing. Pavel Durov.
Expected
#Durov #France
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

I think that in the end, Kommersant will end up with the Kovalchuks. This will happen sooner rather than later.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

For some reason, everyone has decided that they are going to disable Telegram specifically. But it seems to me that they are not going to disable Telegram, or at least it won't be the first one to be targeted. In Russia.
Expected
#Russia #Internet #Censorship #Telegram
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

It seems that the terrorist attack in Crocus will be used by the Kremlin to lift the moratorium on the death penalty in Russia.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

But he will not remove Sergei Shoigu, for example... or Gerasimov in the near future. Putin
Completely came true
#Russia #Putin
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

But of course, this will eventually happen, if not today, then tomorrow. The introduction of a price cap on Russian gas.
Expected
#Gas #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

Dozhd will be relocated to a more loyal country. The Dozhd TV channel (TV Rain)
Completely came true
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

In my opinion, there will not be a second wave of mobilization in Russia as a formally organized event. Regarding the second wave of mobilization.
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

In the end, it’s heading toward their confiscation. Referring to the 300 billion in frozen Russian assets.
Expected
#Russia #Economy
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

No, I think that this time she won't return to Russia... she won't be in Russia in the foreseeable future. Ksenia Sobchak.
Did not come true
#Russia
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

The Maidan seems to me the least likely scenario... our people are not ready to take to the streets and overthrow the government. Answer to the question: 'What is the likelihood of a Maidan in Russia?' (The likelihood of a large popular protest).
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

Vladimir Vladimirovich will not succeed in defeating the American-centric world. About Putin
Expected
#USA #Putin
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

And from the perspective of a potential march on Odesa, if it happens, it will not happen in the near future. About the march of Russian troops on Odesa.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

Sergey Shoigu, the Minister of Defense of Russia, who, according to some reports, is out of favor with Putin, which, however, does not mean his quick resignation
Completely came true
#Russia #Putin #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

The likelihood of this is quite high... it all depends on the situation at the front... under the threat of a successful counteroffensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they will be postponed. On the likelihood of holding so-called referendums.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

The 8th package of sanctions from the European Union... the U.S., the U.K., Japan... will be adopted in September if Russia attempts to annex the occupied territories... and will include a ban on issuing Schengen visas regardless of anything.
Did not come true
#Russia #European Union
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

Analyzing the threats of a nuclear explosion at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which, in my opinion, will certainly not happen, my prediction is that nothing like this can occur
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

There will be trials on the territory of the DPR... and then, when the process is completed and the so-called Nazis from Azov possibly receive death sentences, Vladimir Putin will be able to show the world his unique mercy and pardon someone for an exchange
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en