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Predictions and promises monitor

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Stanislav Belkovsky

Political analyst, blogger (Russia)

Predictions
80
Verified
32
Came true
69%
Complex
47%
Confident
25%
Rating
5.69
All Expected Expected soon New results

Stanislav Belkovsky

Something tells me that Musk is now going to try to initiate the arrest of Soros father and son.
Did not come true October 3, 2025
#USA
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

This is related to the anticipation of the presidential elections in Ukraine. It is already clear that the elections will take place within the next six months at most.
Did not come true August 28, 2025
#Ukraine #Elections
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

As before, I still believe that the resources for continuing high-intensity combat operations are not unlimited for either side — neither for the aggressor, the Russian Federation, nor for the defending Ukraine. Therefore, I still maintain my opinion that in the first half of this year, a ceasefire agreement, under one scenario or another, will be reached.
Did not come true June 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

No, I don’t think anything will happen. In response to the question: "Will anything happen during the parade on May 9, or not?" — referring to possible Ukrainian strikes on Moscow and the May 9 parade.
Completely came true May 9, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

I think that, since Biden is currently president and the Democrats are in power, they will do everything they can to prevent unrest in advance. Back then, the unrest was partly fueled by the fact that the sitting president, Trump, was relatively lenient towards it. Even if he didn’t openly support it, he at least stirred the pot. Referring to possible unrest that could occur after the U.S. presidential elections.
Cannot be verified January 21, 2025
#2024 United States presidential election #USA #Elections
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

I believe that by Trump’s inauguration, and as a gift for the inauguration, the war in Lebanon—Israel’s war with Hezbollah—will be concluded.
Completely came true January 20, 2025
#Israel #Lebanon #Hezbollah #Trump
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

It seems that the terrorist attack in Crocus will be used by the Kremlin to lift the moratorium on the death penalty in Russia.
Did not come true December 31, 2024
#Russia
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who is most likely to be the Social Democratic Party's candidate for chancellor in the upcoming elections, replacing Olaf Scholz.
Did not come true December 15, 2024
#Germany
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

Permission to strike Russian territory with long-range weapons of Euro-Atlantic origin... I believe that this permission will be granted, that’s my prediction. Perhaps in a more limited, compromise form—allowing strikes with British-American Storm Shadow missiles and French SCALP missiles, but not with American ATACMS. Permission for Ukraine.
Completely came true November 21, 2024
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia #United Kingdom #France
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

I don't think it will work. To overthrow Maia Sandu
Completely came true November 15, 2024
#Moldova
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

I think that Maia Sandu will remain president. But this victory cannot be considered convincing.
Completely came true November 4, 2024
#Moldova #Elections
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

A very unpopular and very unprofitable decision for Putin, he will have to go for a new partial mobilization if the war cannot be stopped in the next month.
Did not come true October 31, 2024
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

No, I think that this time she won't return to Russia... she won't be in Russia in the foreseeable future. Ksenia Sobchak.
Did not come true November 7, 2023
#Russia
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

And from the perspective of a potential march on Odesa, if it happens, it will not happen in the near future. About the march of Russian troops on Odesa.
Completely came true September 2, 2023
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

But he will not remove Sergei Shoigu, for example... or Gerasimov in the near future. Putin
Completely came true June 14, 2023
#Russia #Putin
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

Sergey Shoigu, the Minister of Defense of Russia, who, according to some reports, is out of favor with Putin, which, however, does not mean his quick resignation
Completely came true March 2, 2023
#Russia #Putin #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

Dozhd will be relocated to a more loyal country. The Dozhd TV channel (TV Rain)
Completely came true January 31, 2023
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

But of course, this will eventually happen, if not today, then tomorrow. The introduction of a price cap on Russian gas.
Completely came true December 22, 2022
#Gas #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

The 8th package of sanctions from the European Union... the U.S., the U.K., Japan... will be adopted in September if Russia attempts to annex the occupied territories... and will include a ban on issuing Schengen visas regardless of anything.
Did not come true October 6, 2022
#Russia #European Union
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

The likelihood of this is quite high... it all depends on the situation at the front... under the threat of a successful counteroffensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they will be postponed. On the likelihood of holding so-called referendums.
Completely came true September 30, 2022
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en