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Predictions and promises monitor

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Stanislav Belkovsky

Political analyst, blogger (Russia)

Predictions
64
Verified
27
Came true
74%
Complex
44%
Confident
19%
Rating
6.05
All Expected Expected soon New results

Stanislav Belkovsky

Ramzan Akhmatovich has long been building backup airfields in the territories of the Sunni monarchies of the Persian Gulf... But I don't think he plans to relocate there for the sake of his own security.
Expected
#Kadyrov
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

Alexander Dmitrievich Beglov is directly a protégé of the Kovalchuks. Whether he is a popular governor or not, whether he fulfills his duties or not, is completely irrelevant. He suits the Kovalchuks. And as long as that’s the case, which is likely to remain so forever, he will remain the governor of Saint Petersburg.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

One of the ideas I proposed for Middle East peace, which should lead to the creation of a Palestinian state. Whatever Bibi Netanyahu and his supporters may say now, he himself understands perfectly well that this is unavoidable. The only questions are the timing, the format, and the nature of the Palestinian state entity.
Expected
#Palestine #Israel
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

Yes, to local uprisings, especially in a social context, but not to a nationwide rebellion. The regime, in this sense, is quite resilient, including from the perspective of the law enforcement apparatus. Answer to the question: "Well, is there, in your opinion, purely theoretically, something that could lead to a popular uprising?" (In Russia).
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

He can remain in France, where he is not in any danger in the coming years while the judicial investigation is ongoing. Pavel Durov.
Expected
#Durov #France
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

For some reason, everyone has decided that they are going to disable Telegram specifically. But it seems to me that they are not going to disable Telegram, or at least it won't be the first one to be targeted. In Russia.
Expected
#Russia #Internet #Censorship #Telegram
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

Vladimir Vladimirovich will not succeed in defeating the American-centric world. About Putin
Expected
#USA #Putin
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

There will be trials on the territory of the DPR... and then, when the process is completed and the so-called Nazis from Azov possibly receive death sentences, Vladimir Putin will be able to show the world his unique mercy and pardon someone for an exchange
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

Analyzing the threats of a nuclear explosion at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which, in my opinion, will certainly not happen, my prediction is that nothing like this can occur
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

In my opinion, there will not be a second wave of mobilization in Russia as a formally organized event. Regarding the second wave of mobilization.
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

The Maidan seems to me the least likely scenario... our people are not ready to take to the streets and overthrow the government. Answer to the question: 'What is the likelihood of a Maidan in Russia?' (The likelihood of a large popular protest).
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

In the end, it’s heading toward their confiscation. Referring to the 300 billion in frozen Russian assets.
Expected
#Russia #Economy
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

Something tells me that Trump is planning to run for another term, despite the relevant amendment to the U.S. Constitution.
Expected December 31, 2029
#Trump #USA #Elections
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

In my opinion, Trump will not withdraw from NATO, but he will strongly pressure Europe to increase military spending to 5% of GDP, which is absolutely impossible.
Expected December 31, 2028
#NATO #USA #European Union
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

There will be no complete ban on abortions, in my opinion—knock on wood, I hope I don’t jinx it. Because, knowing Vladimir Vladimirovich’s psychology, we understand that he is a cautious person in this regard. He will not take measures that would be extremely unpopular among broad segments of his own electorate, especially among female voters. Therefore, any abortion restrictions will be very moderate.
Expected December 31, 2026
#Russia #Putin
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

In practice, there will be a Korean scenario with a freezing of hostilities along the front line, as I see no alternatives to this. Speaking about the war in Ukraine.
Expected December 31, 2026
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

The Russian Federation cannot remain in its current form... I give this regime 3-4 years.
Expected December 31, 2026
#Russia #Putin
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

I believe there will be a certain degree of distancing now, but not total, not fatal, because the set of arguments in favor of their alliance hasn’t been exhausted yet. They will move closer or further apart depending on how useful or harmful Trump considers Musk to be at any given moment.
Expected December 31, 2025
#USA
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

It seems that in 2025, Saudi Arabia will join the Abraham Accords, and this, in itself, will become a key guarantee of peace in the Middle East.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Saudi Arabia #Middle East
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

In 2025, the presidential election will take place. It will happen one way or another because it’s no longer possible to delay it further. In Ukraine.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Ukraine #Elections
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

I think the war will stop in 2025. This isn't about my ability to predict, but rather based on an analysis of the resources available to each side. These resources are depleting, and the war will have to be stopped one way or another.
Expected December 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

I think that in the end, Kommersant will end up with the Kovalchuks. This will happen sooner rather than later.
Expected December 31, 2025
#Russia
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

Something tells me that Musk is now going to try to initiate the arrest of Soros father and son.
Expected August 31, 2025
#USA
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

This is related to the anticipation of the presidential elections in Ukraine. It is already clear that the elections will take place within the next six months at most.
Expected August 31, 2025
#Ukraine #Elections
ru → en