The Maidan seems to me the least likely scenario... our people are not ready to take to the streets and overthrow the government.
Answer to the question: 'What is the likelihood of a Maidan in Russia?' (The likelihood of a large popular protest).
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ru → en
Notes and References
1) [https://youtu.be/V_Aj5-aRcW4?t=1120] Host Ivan Mironov
Prediction params: expected, regular, careful