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What future awaits Akim Apachev? I think it's quite an unseemly one. We've seen what happened to Strelkov.
#Russia

Putin is stronger than he was 4 years ago. This is a reality that must be acknowledged. And the scenarios that seemed realistic back then are not realistic at all today. Therefore, I don’t believe in the “snuffbox scenario” at all. The “snuffbox” refers to the fate of Russian Emperor Paul I, who was killed by conspirators using a snuffbox.
#Putin #Russia

The entire security theater that was established in Russia, both for the start of the war and for combating the Chinese coronavirus, failed to protect Muscovites from becoming victims of a terrorist attack organized by the Islamic State. Unfortunately, my prediction is that as the situation in the Middle East continues to destabilize, the number of such terrorist attacks on Russian territory will increase. God forbid this happens. My pessimistic forecast is that it will happen because no effective tools for combating Islamic terrorism have been established in Russia.
#Russia

It seems to me that the expansion of the European Union will pause for now. Not because Serbia cannot fulfill certain accession obligations, but because, in general, this political project is currently experiencing a crisis. I find it easier to predict that another country might leave the EU rather than Serbia being accepted into it. Response to the question: "Does Serbia have a chance to join the European Union in the coming years?"
#European Union #Serbia

It doesn’t matter what price Bitcoin has right now; over a 10-year period, it will still grow significantly.
#Bitcoin #Cryptocurrencies #Economy

Trump’s rise to power, in particular, means that energy prices will fall because Trump promises to increase production.
#Oil #Trump #USA #Economy

Do you think it’s realistic that Benjamin Netanyahu will be arrested and convicted in The Hague? To me, that seems like an absolutely improbable scenario.
#Israel #Netherlands

I think no one doubted that Lukashenko would rule Belarus until his own end. He will not leave the office of president as a result of elections.
#Lukashenko #Belarus

My prediction is that, in Georgia, there won’t be any new coup. First, because people have already gone through such a change and have realized the price these shifts demand. Second, because they don’t lead to the outcomes that society usually expects. It’s a rather grim thought.
#Georgia

With a high probability, Maia Sandu will still manage to win in the second round, but the result will fall short of what her European partners were hoping for.
#Moldova #Elections

Everything suggests that Donald Trump is very likely to win the upcoming elections.
#2024 United States presidential election #Trump #USA #Elections

Zelensky, in a conversation with Trump, stated directly that if Ukraine is not given access to NATO, it will develop its own nuclear weapons, and supposedly it would only take Ukraine a few weeks to do so. It's clear that this is largely a bluff, and it's unlikely that anyone would actually allow Ukraine to do something like that.
#Nuclear weapons #Ukraine

I’ll make a cautious prediction, one that I’ve already made on Twitter. I think it’s important. It seems to me that the Anti-Corruption Foundation’s (FBK) defense will be built on the fact that Alexei Navalny knew about Zheleznyak, that they’ve had a long-standing relationship, and that Maxim Katz, in trying to distance Navalny’s team from the FBK, is engaging in manipulations. They will likely provide us with additional evidence that Zheleznyak has been with the FBK for a long time. From their public rhetoric, I get the impression that this will be their line of defense.
#Russia

Leonid Nevzlin is already banned from entering Russia. The problem with Leonid Nevzlin isn’t his current political positions; it’s that he’s accused in a case of theft, which is quite convincing, to begin with. Secondly, he’s also being charged in a case of conspiracy to commit murder, which is also fairly credible. Leonid Nevzlin will never return to Russia.
#Russia

In my opinion, after reaching 100-120 thousand, there will be a significant pullback. That's my prediction. After Bitcoin breaks through 100 thousand, there will be a significant pullback.
#Bitcoin #Cryptocurrencies #Economy

I think that in the near future, Bitcoin will break through 100 thousand.
#Bitcoin #Cryptocurrencies #Economy

If the escalation of the war continues, then my prediction is unfavorable; unfortunately, we will see a new wave of mobilization. In Russia.
#War in Ukraine #Russia

If we need to predict how exactly Telegram will be killed in Russia, I can make that prediction. Because I see how this is happening in Brazil, where Telegram has been constrained. Certain channels are being blocked in Brazil. So, globally, Telegram channels are not banned, but they are cut off from a significant part of the local audience. Because if you are accessing Telegram from a Brazilian IP address and want to subscribe to some Brazilian Telegram channel, Telegram does not allow you to do this for the same reason that when you open certain Telegram channels on an iPhone, it says that they are unavailable due to iOS policy. This balkanization of the internet as a whole and Telegram in particular will happen, and it seems to me that, unfortunately, this is indeed the most likely scenario for the degradation of Telegram
#Internet #Censorship #Russia #Brazil #Telegram

The power in Russia will not change through democratic means.
#Russia

I generally believe that we have not yet passed the most terrifying point... all those small conflicts that are gradually smoldering around the world will eventually culminate in a larger war... my prediction is not optimistic... my prediction is that, unfortunately, there will be a major war within the next 20 years.

What does a favorable scenario for Ukraine in the war look like today? Everything will stop... and the losses that have been incurred will be recorded... This is a scenario that neither Zelensky's cabinet nor the people who made political decisions over the past two years will survive. The scenario of stopping the war along the current line of combat contact will not be survived by Zelensky's team.
#Zelensky #War in Ukraine #Ukraine

Notice that I did not mention the Anti-Corruption Foundation because I sincerely believe that they have no political future in Russia. I think a critical number of fatal mistakes have been made, making them vulnerable to being taken down by anyone.
#Russia

I have a subconscious feeling that these positions are being taken because they fear losing grants, on which, apparently, a significant part of liberal organizations in Russia depends. The Democratic Party is indeed much more generous in funding opposition movements in other countries. And if Trump wins, the flow of money will most likely dry up significantly. That’s my hypothesis.
#USA #Trump

There is one thing that can be said unequivocally. In the case of a non-total defeat in the war against Ukraine, the regime in Russia will not change. This can be stated with certainty.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Putin

The war in Taiwan will, of course, devastate the economies of the entire world. A hypothetical war
#Taiwan #Economy

Iran is preparing for war with Israel, but has allowed for the possibility of refraining from attacking Israel if the UN condemns the strike on Damascus, which seems unlikely to me. This means the US must condemn the strike on Damascus. This will not happen.
#Iran #UN

Is there a prospect that the economy in Russia will collapse? There is no such prospect in the near future. Is there a prospect that some revolutionary situation will occur in Russia that could change the course of the war? No, there is no such prospect on the horizon.
#Russia #War in Ukraine

Therefore, it is quite difficult for me to believe in such a development of events. That NATO countries will introduce their contingent into Ukraine in any form.
#NATO #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I think this chance is vanishingly small. Answer to the question: 'Will Boris Nadezhdin be allowed to participate in the elections?'
#Russia #2024 Russian presidential election

I can truly believe that the question of lifting the moratorium on the death penalty in Russia is a matter of the next year or two; everything is heading in that direction. It will first be tested on some 'traitors, collaborators of Ukraine', and then it will start to trickle down.
#Russia

Putin has bitten off more than he can chew with Ukraine... I consider the option of breaking through a corridor to Kaliningrad through Poland to be absurd. It is impossible to believe in this in the coming decades. Response to the remark: 'Does Putin have enough of his geopolitical madness to break through a corridor to the Kaliningrad region?'
#Russia #Poland #Putin

He will be in prison... until Vladimir Putin dies, or God forbid, Alexei Navalny himself dies, because he will be in prison for a long time.
#Russia

No free trade with the thesis that Argentina will now cut trade relations with Brazil and China... I don't think he will implement any of this. Javier Milei will not sever trade relations with Brazil and China.
#Argentina #Brazil #China

I estimate Javier's chances of winning at about 20 percent. About Javier Milei's chances of winning the presidential elections in Argentina.
#Argentina

I think Ron DeSantis would be an absolutely ideal vice president... I also think it's unlikely. Ron DeSantis is unlikely to be vice president in the event of Trump's victory.
#USA #2024 United States presidential election

YouTube will be blocked in Russia within the next year. I have no doubt about that.
#Russia #Internet #Censorship

In the end, I believe that this war will end within 20 years. God willing, it will be sooner.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Late-stage, senile Putin - yes. Does this mean it's the end for Putin - no. Because Putin is more than just one person; he is more than himself. And the obligations that converge on his personality will keep him afloat, I believe, for quite a while. Response to the remark: 'Maybe this is already that late-stage, senile Putin who has 5 minutes left, so to speak'
#Putin #Russia

I think this is unlikely. The response to the remark: 'Since in Russian rhetoric, Britain is the main enemy... perhaps the nuclear strike that everyone fears will not be on Kyiv, but literally on London'
#Nuclear weapons #United Kingdom #Russia

It is expected that in this speech he will announce referendums... and likely declare partial mobilization. Putin.
#Russia #War in Ukraine #Putin

There is already confidence that there will be no referendums. Referendums on the annexation to Russia of several occupied regions of Ukraine: Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

And the question that is on the agenda, and I still think that this will not happen, is whether Putin will manage to push for the launch of Nord Stream 2.
#Gas #Europe #Putin

Apparently, the United States has backed down, and Pelosi will not fly to Taiwan.
#Taiwan #USA

They will not dare to carry out the punishment. The Russian authorities will not dare to execute the captured Britons.
#War in Ukraine

If Putin gets bogged down in this war, conscription will begin... there will be a mobilization.
#War in Ukraine #Russia