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I doubt that Ukraine will agree to such terms (Putin calls it negotiations without any conditions. A clever formulation). Overall, it seems like nothing has really happened, but I’d be glad to be wrong. I just wish the war would end soon. On Putin’s proposal to resume negotiations in Istanbul.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Turkey

I have a subconscious feeling that these positions are being taken because they fear losing grants, on which, apparently, a significant part of liberal organizations in Russia depends. The Democratic Party is indeed much more generous in funding opposition movements in other countries. And if Trump wins, the flow of money will most likely dry up significantly. That’s my hypothesis.
#USA #Trump

My prediction is that, in Georgia, there won’t be any new coup. First, because people have already gone through such a change and have realized the price these shifts demand. Second, because they don’t lead to the outcomes that society usually expects. It’s a rather grim thought.
#Georgia

YouTube will be blocked in Russia within the next year. I have no doubt about that.
#Russia #Internet #Censorship

Is there a prospect that the economy in Russia will collapse? There is no such prospect in the near future. Is there a prospect that some revolutionary situation will occur in Russia that could change the course of the war? No, there is no such prospect on the horizon.
#Russia #War in Ukraine

I think that in the near future, Bitcoin will break through 100 thousand.
#Bitcoin #Cryptocurrencies #Economy

My prediction is that I don’t feel it will be a major event — probably around a thousands people will show up at the rally, maybe three thousand at most. In response to the question: "I wonder how many people will come out to the rally in Berlin?" (November 17, 2024, anti-war march in Berlin led by Ilya Yashin, Vladimir Kara-Murza, and Yulia Navalnaya)
#Germany #Russia

Everything suggests that Donald Trump is very likely to win the upcoming elections.
#2024 United States presidential election #Trump #USA #Elections

I think Ron DeSantis would be an absolutely ideal vice president... I also think it's unlikely. Ron DeSantis is unlikely to be vice president in the event of Trump's victory.
#USA #2024 United States presidential election

With a high probability, Maia Sandu will still manage to win in the second round, but the result will fall short of what her European partners were hoping for.
#Moldova #Elections

I’ll make a cautious prediction, one that I’ve already made on Twitter. I think it’s important. It seems to me that the Anti-Corruption Foundation’s (FBK) defense will be built on the fact that Alexei Navalny knew about Zheleznyak, that they’ve had a long-standing relationship, and that Maxim Katz, in trying to distance Navalny’s team from the FBK, is engaging in manipulations. They will likely provide us with additional evidence that Zheleznyak has been with the FBK for a long time. From their public rhetoric, I get the impression that this will be their line of defense.
#Russia

I think this chance is vanishingly small. Answer to the question: 'Will Boris Nadezhdin be allowed to participate in the elections?'
#Russia #2024 Russian presidential election

He will be in prison... until Vladimir Putin dies, or God forbid, Alexei Navalny himself dies, because he will be in prison for a long time.
#Russia

I estimate Javier's chances of winning at about 20 percent. About Javier Milei's chances of winning the presidential elections in Argentina.
#Argentina

And the question that is on the agenda, and I still think that this will not happen, is whether Putin will manage to push for the launch of Nord Stream 2.
#Gas #Europe #Putin

There is already confidence that there will be no referendums. Referendums on the annexation to Russia of several occupied regions of Ukraine: Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

If Putin gets bogged down in this war, conscription will begin... there will be a mobilization.
#War in Ukraine #Russia

It is expected that in this speech he will announce referendums... and likely declare partial mobilization. Putin.
#Russia #War in Ukraine #Putin

They will not dare to carry out the punishment. The Russian authorities will not dare to execute the captured Britons.
#War in Ukraine

Apparently, the United States has backed down, and Pelosi will not fly to Taiwan.
#Taiwan #USA