Predictions and promises monitor

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Sergey Smirnov

Journalist, editor-in-chief of the publication Mediazona (Russia)

Predictions
11
Verified
1
Came true
0%
Complex
100%
Confident
0%
4.92

Sergey Smirnov

If the Iranian regime remains, especially after this war, will it not try to strengthen its potential? Will it not try to acquire a nuclear bomb again? That is why I believe the best option is, of course, a change of regime in Iran. But that does not seem possible yet.
Expected
#Iran
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

I believe that a year from now, and even two years from now, the war will still be ongoing—and Putin’s regime will endure one year from now, two years, three years, and even five years on.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Ukraine
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

I don’t believe Vladimir Putin will even come close to acting like Lukashenko. He won’t release a single person. Putin will not free political prisoners as Lukashenko did on June 21, 2025.
Expected
#Putin #Russia
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

At that Putin forum of his, his little elite reached a “deal”—as if it were a joke—that Afghanistan would send its specialists and builders to Russia. I’m certain we won’t see any Afghan builders or specialists here in Russia; we’ll only see products from Afghanistan.
Expected
#Russia #Afghanistan
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

I think Yavlinsky isn’t as irritating; he’s less visible on the local level — it’s Moscow, not Pskov. Yavlinsky seems to be less media-present than Shlosberg. He makes some strange statements once every six months, and that’s it. In this sense, I think he doesn’t face any particular risks. Yavlinsky won’t be arrested like Shlosberg.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

There’s a very unpleasant detail — depending on the type of penal colony, the days spent under house arrest don’t count toward the future sentence if it turns out to be a real prison term. And I believe Shlosberg will get a real sentence. Simply because it’s Pskov — people there are fed up with him. We can see how biased the attitude toward him is, specifically in Pskov.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

Zoom, I think. Google, I believe, will be one of the last, it seems to me. In response to the question: "Who will be banned next?" (In Russia)
Expected
#Russia #Censorship #Internet
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

Let’s get back to the Trump administration. What’s next? I think that’s it. Basically, next week or in a couple of weeks, they’ll officially take offense — like, “if you’re so ungrateful and forgot to thank us, then we’re not going to do anything.” The Trump administration will soon withdraw from efforts to resolve the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Did not come true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Trump
ru → en

Sergey Smirnov

It is unlikely that he will press the nuclear button. Well, these are our reflections from a logical standpoint. From a logical perspective, not all of Vladimir Putin's actions can be explained normally.
Expected
#Nuclear weapons #Putin #Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en