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I think we should expect them from Belarus, but not from Russia. In response to the question: "Should we expect more exchanges with Belarus and the Russian Federation?" (Exchanges of political prisoners)
#Belarus #Russia

How is Ibragim Suleymanov doing? And now, judging by the charges filed against him, he has two counts of organizing murders. I don't think the investigation will stop there. My prediction is they will find new criminal cases... Ibragim Suleymanov will be jailed for decades; there is no doubt about that.
#Russia

Kozak is a fairly trusted figure for Vladimir Putin. Nothing will happen to Dmitry Kozak, I'm sure of that, just as nothing happened to Kudrin. I think Kozak will be somewhere at Kudrin's level.
#Russia

Literally almost every day, news comes in about nationalizations or simply the redistribution of business. You know the most famous examples. There are two options: nationalization, and the second option is declaring it an extremist community. Now they will start doing this routinely. My prediction is that they will put this into practice on a large scale, and we will see quite a few more extremist communities, besides the Nevzorovs, the owners of Kirieshki, and Lesta.
#Russia

In my opinion, Roman Dobrokhotov was right to say that if he contacts us, we have sufficient data for 2017 and we will quickly understand how much basis this has. By the way, knowing Durov, I don't think he will contact anyone. I think there won't be much of a continuation of the story. And everyone will be left with the impression that Durov talked about poisoning, then proved nothing, so he was talking nonsense. Let's remember this conversation in six months; I think that's how it will be in six months. Remind me of this prediction in six months.
#Durov

I'm betting on Kashevarova. It's time to declare her a foreign agent. In response to the question: "Who is next among the pro-government people, what's your forecast?" (Referring to who will be declared a foreign agent next in Russia)
#Russia

Bet! I don't think you'll face criminal charges by New Year's. Dmitry Treshchanin won't have a criminal case opened against him before New Year's.
#Russia

We've finished reading the Tribute. Please donate via Telegram while it's still possible. I think that option will also be disabled soon.
#Russia #Telegram #Censorship #Internet

I think the question of blocking WhatsApp and Telegram is a matter of, if not months, then a very foreseeable future, once they launch their Max and get enough users onto it. Max is a Russian messenger service.
#Russia #Internet #Censorship #Telegram

I actually think it's not just that the cops don't care; I'm personally sure they'll be covered this time. There will be no consequences for the killing in Ekaterinburg. No police officers will be held accountable for anything. Speaking about the deaths of two Azerbaijanis during their detention in Ekaterinburg.
#Russia #Azerbaijan

If the Iranian regime remains, especially after this war, will it not try to strengthen its potential? Will it not try to acquire a nuclear bomb again? That is why I believe the best option is, of course, a change of regime in Iran. But that does not seem possible yet.
#Iran

I believe that a year from now, and even two years from now, the war will still be ongoing—and Putin’s regime will endure one year from now, two years, three years, and even five years on.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Ukraine

I don’t believe Vladimir Putin will even come close to acting like Lukashenko. He won’t release a single person. Putin will not free political prisoners as Lukashenko did on June 21, 2025.
#Putin #Russia

At that Putin forum of his, his little elite reached a “deal”—as if it were a joke—that Afghanistan would send its specialists and builders to Russia. I’m certain we won’t see any Afghan builders or specialists here in Russia; we’ll only see products from Afghanistan.
#Russia #Afghanistan

I think Yavlinsky isn’t as irritating; he’s less visible on the local level — it’s Moscow, not Pskov. Yavlinsky seems to be less media-present than Shlosberg. He makes some strange statements once every six months, and that’s it. In this sense, I think he doesn’t face any particular risks. Yavlinsky won’t be arrested like Shlosberg.
#Russia

There’s a very unpleasant detail — depending on the type of penal colony, the days spent under house arrest don’t count toward the future sentence if it turns out to be a real prison term. And I believe Shlosberg will get a real sentence. Simply because it’s Pskov — people there are fed up with him. We can see how biased the attitude toward him is, specifically in Pskov.
#Russia

Zoom, I think. Google, I believe, will be one of the last, it seems to me. In response to the question: "Who will be banned next?" (In Russia)
#Russia #Censorship #Internet

Let’s get back to the Trump administration. What’s next? I think that’s it. Basically, next week or in a couple of weeks, they’ll officially take offense — like, “if you’re so ungrateful and forgot to thank us, then we’re not going to do anything.” The Trump administration will soon withdraw from efforts to resolve the war between Russia and Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Trump

I am expecting mobilization in Russia. In 2025.
#Russia #War in Ukraine

I have a bad forecast. I do not expect a quick ceasefire, unlike many.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

It is unlikely that he will press the nuclear button. Well, these are our reflections from a logical standpoint. From a logical perspective, not all of Vladimir Putin's actions can be explained normally.
#Nuclear weapons #Putin #Russia #War in Ukraine