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The Central Bank will lower the rate at the next meeting, I believe not just to 20%, but even lower. In Russia.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

Let’s say inflation is above 15%, GDP drops by 1–1.5%, the budget is cut by 10%, and the standard of living declines. If we define that as a crisis, then the probability of it happening... in the second half of next year, the probability is around 15–20%. In response to the question: “How would you assess the probability of a crisis happening this year or next?”
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

Let’s say inflation is above 15%, GDP drops by 1–1.5%, the budget is cut by 10%, and the standard of living declines. If we define that as a crisis, then the probability of it happening this year is 0%, and in the second half of next year, the probability is around 15–20%. In response to the question: “How would you assess the probability of a crisis happening this year or next?”
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

And we’ll see a downward trend that will reach 15 percent by the New Year. Continuing from the previous statement: “The Central Bank will lower the rate at the next meeting, I believe not just to 20%, but even lower.”
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

Bank defaults will not be allowed. In Russia, in 2025.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

I don’t see any prospects of a serious banking crisis. Let’s wait until the end of the year and do another stream like this in January 2026. As for hyperinflation — I don’t think it will happen.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

My prediction was that the war would not end this year. I still hold the same opinion.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

No, it won't. Answer to the question: "Do you think it's possible to expect that in the near future — say, by the 100th day of Trump's presidency or by May 9 — the war will come to a halt?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

He has engaged in war on multiple fronts simultaneously, which, in my opinion, is a catastrophic mistake. His actions are purely impulsive. The level of his team has turned out to be absolutely abysmal. That’s why I believe he will not last until the end of his term—and maybe he won’t even survive. Trump.
#Trump #USA

I could be wrong, but it seems to me that we've entered a Republican decade, lasting at least 12 years, and possibly even longer. Republicans will remain in power in the USA for the next 12 years.
#USA

We strongly dislike Putin's regime, and we understand that the war will not end as long as it exists. I would completely agree with that. The war in Ukraine
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Putin

I think the outcome will favor Trump. It won’t be overwhelmingly decisive, but it will be clear in terms of electoral votes. I expect it to be somewhere around 290 to 250.
#2024 United States presidential election #Trump #USA #Elections

I think by the end of this year or the beginning of the next, it will be somewhere around 105-110. The dollar will be 105-110 rubles.
#Ruble #Dollar #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

As for the exchange rate, I would say we will confidently break through 100 this year, likely around November. By the end of 2024, the exchange rate will be above 100 rubles per dollar.
#Ruble #Dollar #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

This is a significant rightward shift. In 10 years, Europe will be much further to the right politically than it is now.
#Europe

I think that next year the war will end with some kind of temporary ceasefire, approximately along the current lines. The West is unlikely to be able to maintain such intense support for another year. Of course, this reflects very poorly on the West.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I will be extremely surprised if Trump wins. I haven’t seen a bigger act of self-discreditation than what he’s been doing ever since the Democrats changed their candidate. He is losing.
#2024 United States presidential election #USA #Elections #Trump

By the end of the year, Ukraine will receive permission for long-range strikes on Russia and will carry them out.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

I am sure that it is not the limit; I think it will be 20. Response to the remark: 'The Central Bank raised the rate to 19%, and Nabiullina said that this is not the limit'
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

15 January 2020, the USA and China signed a large-scale economic reconciliation agreement, which, if implemented, would have restored their relations on a full scale... However, in the context of COVID, the Chinese ceased any attempts to implement it, and the Americans also added to the situation because Trump accused China of allowing the infection to spread... If this agreement had been restored, say, with Trump's return and improvements in his relations with Chairman Xi, perhaps history would have taken a different path. But, in my view, this now seems unlikely.
#USA #China

The dollar is the most important tool for stabilizing the global financial system... I think that for the next 20 years, nothing will change significantly. In the next 20 years, the dollar will remain the most important element of the global financial system, and its role will not change significantly.
#USA #Economy

If nothing extraordinary happens, like a new mobilization, the year 2025 will pass quite calmly... I definitely do not foresee any failures, crises, or the dollar at 200 rubles.
#Russia

I believe that the likelihood of negotiations by the end of the year is zero.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Whoever comes after Putin... no one will talk about reparations... the West should be satisfied with what it has taken... this money will undoubtedly be confiscated for the benefit of Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Russia

Russia's defeat in Ukraine is inevitable... which I agree with.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia