screenshot

If the Americans step in for Taiwan and defend it as they have promised, it could result in a devastating military defeat for China—literally a catastrophe—that would completely shut down the idea of bringing Taiwan back into China’s fold. Completely. Therefore, in theory, they should not decide on such an action in the near future.
#Taiwan #China #USA

And the reason for this is that it’s yet another message to Tehran—look, the bombs have arrived, we are ready, so think faster about the deal before it's too late. And this whole media wave about Israel striking in the coming months, but no later than May-June, is a threat meant to push the Iranians to quickly accept Trump’s generous offer. They won’t agree, so these bombs will come in handy.
#Israel #Iran

Trump has appointed a special representative for Ukraine and given him 100 days. This means there will be no meeting for at least 100 days, as during this time, the representative will be searching for a solution. If Trump ever meets with Putin, it certainly won’t be for negotiations or to discuss any details. No, by then, a finalized solution will already be on the table—just waiting to be signed. There will be no meeting between Trump and Putin in the next 100 days.
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine #Ukraine

The new Syrian leadership has said nothing about reclaiming the Golan Heights. For now, they are talking about returning to the 1974 borders. Israel, in turn, states that during this period of uncertainty and transition, they will remain in the buffer zone without interfering with anyone. Moreover, they are taking full responsibility for maintaining everyone within the buffer zone. However, they will reassess the situation later. If the Syrian leadership demonstrates competence and a commitment to civilized dialogue, there will be no problem—Israel will regroup and withdraw to the 1974 borders. But this is unlikely to happen before the end of 2025. Of course, we’ll see—anything is possible, but it remains improbable.
#Syria #Israel

It is unlikely that the Russians will hand over Assad. This means they will not fulfill the main condition set by Julani. And that means they will not have bases in Tartus.
#Russia #Syria

Honestly, I would assess the likelihood of nuclear war as extremely low. From Russia’s side.
#Nuclear weapons #Russia

There will be no change of power in Syria. Syria will simply fragment into a series of isolated cantons. There will be no regime change.
#Syria

But in any case, as I believe, until January 20, until Trump’s inauguration, Israel will not take any decisive action in this direction. Regarding Iran.
#Israel #Iran #Trump #USA

It seems to me that Trump will start by crashing oil prices, working to bring them down in order to take away Putin's main advantage—money.
#Trump #Oil #Economy #Russia #USA

So far, there doesn’t seem to be any sign that the front will collapse. I see no grounds to think a cascading collapse of the front will happen. Nothing currently indicates that outcome. They simply don’t have the forces to make it happen… I believe we’ll continue to see this slow movement with some acceleration. In response to the question: “How do you think events will unfold on the Russia-Ukraine front over the next couple of months?”
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia