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It’s kind of like the Korean scenario — that’s what awaits the war in Ukraine. Wherever the front line runs, that’s where it gets fixed, and that’s where a sort of border appears — not a state border, but a de facto one. Naturally, Ukraine won’t recognize those territories as Russian, even in the best-case scenario... But I strongly doubt that this will all end in 2025. To be honest, I really doubt it. In response to the question: "Is there a chance the fighting will end this year, and what is your opinion on the territorial issue?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

The new Syrian leadership has said nothing about reclaiming the Golan Heights. For now, they are talking about returning to the 1974 borders. Israel, in turn, states that during this period of uncertainty and transition, they will remain in the buffer zone without interfering with anyone. Moreover, they are taking full responsibility for maintaining everyone within the buffer zone. However, they will reassess the situation later. If the Syrian leadership demonstrates competence and a commitment to civilized dialogue, there will be no problem—Israel will regroup and withdraw to the 1974 borders. But this is unlikely to happen before the end of 2025. Of course, we’ll see—anything is possible, but it remains improbable.
#Syria #Israel

It is unlikely that the Russians will hand over Assad. This means they will not fulfill the main condition set by Julani. And that means they will not have bases in Tartus.
#Russia #Syria

It seems to me that Trump will start by crashing oil prices, working to bring them down in order to take away Putin's main advantage—money.
#Trump #Oil #Economy #Russia #USA

I don’t think such a breakthrough is possible at this point... As of now, the collapse of the Ukrainian front doesn’t seem possible to me. In response to the question: "Is a breakthrough of the front by Russia possible?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Launchers are in short supply for them, carriers are in short supply, so there aren't many missiles in their volleys, which is good. But the number of drones is growing more and more. And I'm afraid we'll see 1,000 before the end of summer, literally. The number increases every day there. And Ukrainians urgently need to work on this. By the end of summer, Russia will launch 1,000 drones at Ukraine in a single volley.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia