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Predictions and promises monitor

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Dmitriy Potapenko

Entrepreneur, blogger (Russia)

Predictions
33
Verified
13
Came true
92%
Complex
46%
Confident
31%
Rating
6.81
All Expected Expected soon New results

Dmitriy Potapenko

The stability of the Russian ruble. So, the range of 93-97—I don’t really see the need for it to reach, maybe touch, 98-99, but that’s unlikely. The ruble exchange rate will be 93-97 per dollar until the end of 2024.
Expected
#Ruble #Dollar #Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

That’s a highly unlikely scenario for the rate to be 15% next year. Aliens are more likely to arrive. In response to: "By the start of the second quarter... they might start lowering the rate, maybe even to 15% in 2025. What do you think of that?" (Referring to Russia's key interest rate)
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

It's clear that within the next 3-5 years, the retirement age will be raised.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

Right now, renting is more advantageous. Buying an apartment doesn’t make sense at the moment. Prices won’t drop. The real estate market cools down very slowly... It takes 5-7 years for the real estate market to cool off, so prices aren’t going to fall.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

The demarcation agreement, which I think everyone is pushing towards... will most likely come in 2025, with the first attempts to establish some kind of deal regarding authority and territories. Between Russia and Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

We are expecting the next meeting, at which we will most likely see an increase in the rate. At the next meeting, the Central Bank will raise the key rate again.
Completely came true
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

The average European is much more concerned about the price of their food and gas, which would be beneficial for them if it were supplied directly through a pipeline from Russia. Therefore, as soon as the escalation of the conflict is reduced, the pipeline will be restored within three months, and Europe will immediately return to Russian gas in full volume. No one is dismantling the gas transportation system.
Expected
#European Union #Gas #Russia #War in Ukraine #Economy
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

If long-range artillery can still be seen on the battlefields this year, then regarding aviation... to expect that it will appear before spring 2024 is absolute illusion. Ukraine is unlikely to receive F-16s before spring 2024.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

No, it will not end. There is not the slightest chance of it ending. Answer to the question: "Will the war end this year?" (The war in Ukraine)
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

Yes, there is Latvia's position that it wants to propose to the European Union to set the price cap at 30. Well, they won't set it. Price cap on Russian oil at 30.
Completely came true
#Economy #Russia #European Union #Oil
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

Nothing will fall apart... on the contrary, it will be a symbol that we need to unite around the great leader. Response to the remark that if Crimea is de-occupied, everything in Russia will fall apart
Expected
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

Somewhere in July, I said that the hot phase would be in October, and the signing of the first agreements, so to speak, on a ceasefire, which will certainly be violated, would be in November. He believes that negotiations, at least about a ceasefire, will begin in November and that the parties will at least talk.
Did not come true
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

Is there a chance of this? Honestly, I assess it as unlikely. About Ukraine's accelerated accession to NATO. He argues that it would require "bending the procedure."
Expected
#Ukraine #NATO
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

On the 28th-29th, there will be a point when the borders will be closed; it will not be a closure of the borders for exit... Men will not be allowed to leave without a certificate from the military enlistment office... Officially, no one will close the border.
Partially came true
#Russia
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

Still, if we take Iran... is there a chance for some kind of revolutionary scenario? Well, I think not... unless the military gets involved. About a possible revolution in Iran due to the September protests, and stating that the military is unlikely to get involved.
Completely came true
#Iran
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

Sanctions will work for decades... sanctions are serious and long-term. Regarding sanctions against Russia
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

Thus, they will try to bring it to an average of 71-74... but physically, the rate of 67-69 is the maximum they can achieve by December... this is assuming they don't 'fool around like complete idiots.' About the exchange rate of the ruble to the dollar.
Almost came true
#Russia #Economy of Russia #Ruble #Dollar
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

I think they will leave him like Nazarbayev, and then slowly remove him. Response to the question: 'Will Putin remain in power or will he be ousted?'
Expected
#Putin #Russia
ru → en