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Predictions and promises monitor

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Michael Nacke

Blogger (Russia)

Predictions
53
Verified
22
Came true
59%
Complex
45%
Confident
55%
Rating
5.43
All Expected Expected soon New results

Michael Nacke

Poor Markaryan. What a fool. Of course. There's not a single reason not to jail him. In response to the question: "Do you think he'll be jailed?" (Arsen Markaryan)
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Michael Nacke

Some part of Iran’s political elite, I believe led by Khamenei (he is not being killed because his death could trigger a civil war), will simply agree to Israel’s terms. They have President Pezeshkian, who is quite pro-Western, and I think Khamenei will simply declare that the era of trying to destroy Israel is over, that it’s time to live normally, to make deals and all that. And that will be the end of it. But I make these assumptions based on the rational behavior of actors, which does not always reflect reality.
Expected
#Iran #Israel
ru → en

Michael Nacke

This will have quite a few different consequences, and one of them we are seeing now in the rise of oil prices. But this is a hysterical market reaction — I don't think it will last long. I believe oil will go down fairly quickly. Due to Israel’s strike on Iran, oil prices have risen, but they will go down soon.
Expected
#Oil #Economy
ru → en

Michael Nacke

If someone said to me, "Michael, place a bet — who will win, Trump or Musk?" I’d say, of course, Musk.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Michael Nacke

We’re waiting for a drone swarm. I’m sure that during this war, we’ll see one. Sooner or later, we’ll definitely witness a swarm of drones. Air defense is in no way capable of withstanding a massive attack targeting one or several objectives, carried out by a hundred or two hundred drones. I believe Ukraine already has such capabilities — or will have them soon.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Michael Nacke

Pete Hegseth is about to lose his position any day now. Remember this tweet. Well, maybe not literally any day — but soon, Pete Hegseth will no longer be at the head of the Pentagon.
Did not come true
#USA
ru → en

Michael Nacke

Lately, a lot of attention has been focused on the TV channel "Yu", so I think it doesn’t have much time left, unfortunately.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Michael Nacke

I don't rule it out—in fact, I believe it's a very likely scenario—that we will see the United States involved in some kind of armed conflict, not in Ukraine, but near its own neighbors or somewhere else. I think it will happen. And I also think it will be a loud fiasco.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Michael Nacke

DeepState focuses on the situation in Zaporizhzhia—referring to a village on the western flank of the Pokrovsk direction, not the city of the same name, which Russian forces have not yet reached and most likely never will.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Michael Nacke

Putin has many problems. But the scenario he desires most is for the U.S. to stop helping Ukraine altogether. In that case, Putin expects the situation to become easier for him. At the same time, he’s probably ready to consider a freeze, but he wants the terms of the freeze to be as favorable to him as possible. Ideally, he would want all four regions that are now included in the Russian Constitution, including the cities of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, which Ukraine will never agree to under any circumstances.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Michael Nacke

Scholz is done; there’s no Scholz anymore—he’s ruined everything. He won’t be in the next government. There will be early elections now. We will never hear his name again.
Completely came true
#Germany
ru → en

Michael Nacke

The election of Donald Trump will probably inevitably lead us to World War III.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Michael Nacke

You are on Michael Nacke’s channel... support the channel financially by purchasing nVPN... it will never be removed from the App Store.
Expected
#Censorship #Internet #Russia
ru → en

Michael Nacke

I think the surprise over North Koreans participating in the war and being used in combat roles will, by the middle of next year, become quite a common story. In other words, we’ll be watching plenty of videos of FPV drones taking down North Koreans.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #North Korea #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Michael Nacke

Nabiullina will likely be imprisoned soon, in my view.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Michael Nacke

So far, current and former military personnel have not yet joined these confrontations. But I think that moment isn’t far off. And when that happens, a real bloodbath will begin... Even if the country’s leadership changes tomorrow, Russia withdraws troops from Ukraine, and so on, there will still be bloodshed—perhaps on a smaller scale, more controlled, but it will happen nonetheless. Maybe I’m wrong, and let’s hope that’s the case.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Michael Nacke

In short, pay attention. Kadyrov declares blood vengeance, and very strange events begin to happen in Ingushetia or with individuals connected to Ingushetia. It seems Kadyrov will continue gaining momentum because no one is stopping or restraining him... The explosion in the Caucasus is not just looming on the horizon, it feels like the situation is already starting to detonate. I think it's becoming obvious to many. Figuratively speaking: "explosion" and "detonation" refer to the intensification of tensions, not literal physical events.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Michael Nacke

I have a feeling that before November, we’ll see something interesting from Ukraine. I don’t want to speculate too much; I’m not really into sharing vibes. I don’t think vibe-based analysis holds much value. Analysis should be based on arguments and facts, not vibes... I expect some offensive actions from Ukraine before November of this year. And the F-16s will surely be able to support these actions.
Did not come true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Michael Nacke

It seems to me that Ukraine will become a weapons center in Europe after winning the war. Even now, a huge number of manufacturing facilities are being opened there... As far as I understand, underground factories are being built.
Expected
#Ukraine #Europe #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Michael Nacke

As far as I understand, the plan of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is to hold the Kursk region until the start of the negotiation process, which, as it seems to me, will begin in November after the American elections, regardless of their outcome. It is a very bold assumption on my part, and I am not ready to insist on it as some kind of forecast.
Did not come true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Michael Nacke

As for the Kursk region, I expect an intensification of fighting there in October, because it's clear that Russia would want to push out Ukrainian forces, especially by November.
Almost came true
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Michael Nacke

I consider this policy to be misguided. I believe that America misunderstands its own security. I think that the 2,500 Abrams tanks standing in the desert, which are idle, can simply be handed over to Ukraine without any thought, because this is the last war in which such tanks are used. If tanks are to be used further, they will be a completely different design, a completely different weaponry.
Expected
ru → en

Michael Nacke

We've seen, and are still seeing, a lot of discussion about U.S. aid under the PDA, where roughly $5.8 billion is supposedly frozen and will expire in October, blah blah blah. In reality, it won’t expire—everything will be extended, mark my words, screenshot this tweet. PDA = Presidential Drawdown Authority
Partially came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA
ru → en

Michael Nacke

Just the entire North of Israel is being shelled by Hezbollah from Lebanon... And many said that this operation is inevitable. And apparently, it really will happen. Israel's operation in Lebanon.
Completely came true
#Israel #Lebanon
ru → en

Michael Nacke

I am ready to bet money, or anything, that we will not see Leonid Nevzlin outside of Israel in the coming years.
Expected
#Israel #Russia
ru → en

Michael Nacke

Most likely, as soon as Leonid Nevzlin appears on European territory, where he used to love to travel, he will be arrested.
Expected
#Europe #Russia
ru → en

Michael Nacke

Remember the joy of the Z-channels from the strikes on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure. Very soon, it will be replaced by outrage and wailing from the strikes of ATACMS on Russian airfields. Today's shelling has brought this decision closer, with or without the approval of the United States.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Michael Nacke

The advisor to the acting governor of the Kursk region has urged all residents of Rylsk to evacuate. He predicts that this city will face the same fate as Sudzha. This means that a breakthrough by the Ukrainian Armed Forces is not far off.
Did not come true
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Michael Nacke

...there isn't even the death penalty. They are currently discussing lifting the moratorium on it in Russia. I don't think they will do it.
Completely came true
#Russia
ru → en

Michael Nacke

My position has not changed since 2022. The moment NATO says that we are taking Ukraine and we are entering this conflict right now, closing the sky and so on, Russia will retreat, right at that moment, because Vladimir Putin always retreats before a force he considers greater than himself... Russia will not fight NATO now, because the forces are not comparable. Russia will be wiped out in an instant... As soon as NATO says that we are truly getting involved, Russia will withdraw its troops from Ukraine within a day
Expected
#Russia #NATO #War in Ukraine #Ukraine
ru → en

Michael Nacke

Because the Crimean Bridge was recently fully repaired. And this means that in the very near future, new strikes will be carried out on it, which will render it inoperable for cargo transport.
Did not come true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Michael Nacke

Spoiler: The Sarmat will not be put into service in 2023
Did not come true
#Russia
ru → en

Michael Nacke

Everything will be fine there. They will join. They will all come to an agreement. Sweden will join NATO.
Completely came true
#NATO #Sweden #Turkey
ru → en

Michael Nacke

The passivity of Russians... I wouldn't expect that when the Armed Forces of Ukraine enter the territory of Crimea, everyone will take up arms and start fighting
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Michael Nacke

It's hard for me to imagine. That Russia will leave the northern part of the Luhansk region in exchange for the launch of the ammonia pipeline.
Cannot be verified
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Michael Nacke

With a high probability, it will be openly carried out in one form or another. I hope I'm wrong. About mobilization in Russia
Completely came true
#Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Michael Nacke

The so-called 'bangs' are occurring in Voronezh, Belgorod, and many other regions. And apparently, there will be more of this
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Russia
ru → en