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Predictions and promises monitor

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Yuri Felshtinsky

Historian (USA, Russia)

Predictions
26
Verified
5
Came true
40%
Complex
80%
Confident
60%
Rating
4.85
All Expected Expected soon New results

Yuri Felshtinsky

Only Moscow matters. That’s why strikes must be directed solely at Moscow — and then this war will end, and it will end very quickly. There are no other ways to stop this war.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

First of all, I expect that there will be an attempt to amend the U.S. Constitution to allow Trump to stay for another term.
Expected
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

I don't think this agreement will last for a long time. I believe there is skepticism about it even in Israel. Surprisingly, I think the Arab world is also skeptical about it. I believe there will, of course, be no peace in Israel.
Expected
#Israel-Hamas war #Israel #Hamas
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

No Ukrainian politician, starting with Zelensky, will be able to present the question of peace negotiations with Russia to their people without the condition of recognizing the borders of 1991
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

Everyone is now startled by the announcement that Poland is suspending military aid to Ukraine. But I guarantee you that Poland will not stop military assistance to Ukraine. Because Poland's military aid to Ukraine is primarily in Poland's interest, and this is well understood in Poland.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Poland #Ukraine
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

I state, with full responsibility, that no later than September of this year, nuclear strikes will be launched from Belarus against Lithuania and Poland if the West does not take preventive actions in this regard.
Did not come true
#Nuclear weapons #Belarus #Poland #Lithuania
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

Most likely, at the end of the road, Germany will give in and will not be able to resist the overall trend of its allies. It will transfer or allow the transfer of Leopard tanks to Ukraine
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Germany #Ukraine
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

Whoever comes to power in Russia after Putin will still be a temporary ruler and will not stay in power for long, maybe a year or two.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

The moment Kadyrov leaves, the Chechen Republic will certainly raise the issue of its independence.
Expected
#Russia #Kadyrov
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

The victory may be far off. However, I do not think we are talking about years. I do not see a scenario stretched over years, like the Soviet-Afghan war. Until Ukraine's victory.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

I am far from thinking that China will use military force in attempts to seize Taiwan
Expected
#Taiwan #China
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

I am far from the thought that he will deliver this strike from the territory of the Russian Federation. Nuclear strike.
Expected
#Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Yuri Felshtinsky

When military actions will be transferred to the territory of Belarus, and they will be transferred there at some point
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Belarus
ru → en