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I'm still inclined to believe that he will resolve this issue somehow by the end of the year. Either he'll arrange some kind of temporary truce, or he'll go all out. Something will happen by the end of the year. You promised it in a day, but a year is already just around the corner. Trump will make some important decisions regarding the war in Ukraine by the end of the year.
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #Russia #USA

Strangely enough, good. If everything had been going well for him, I think he wouldn’t be so determined to establish peace in Ukraine. Because now, achieving peace in Ukraine, against the backdrop of all his defeats and failures, has become a major motivator for him. I think he won’t be able to back away from this topic, so to speak. He’ll have to push for that peace. In response to the question: “Donald Trump has marked 100 days in office. What are your impressions of the American president’s time in power?”
#Trump #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia

Elon Musk — just look at how quickly and how far he has driven his Tesla down. You’ve probably seen the numbers for the first quarter: falling sales, falling profits. The guy, through his stupidity, impulsiveness, and inability to manage, has crashed his own company. My prediction: Tesla won’t recover from this, it won’t bounce back.
#USA #Economy

Ukraine is no longer asking for aid, but wants to buy weapons, and the Europeans are providing money for that... It seems to me that, in the end, Trump will respond positively to the proposal.
#Ukraine #USA #Trump #Europe #War in Ukraine

The situation for the Russian Federation is more likely to worsen. Although we will see some sanctions lifted.
#Russia #USA #Economy of Russia #Economy

These past few days I’ve had a disturbing feeling that we might actually be witnessing the decline of America. If all of this keeps going the way it is, the system will enter such turbulence that parts will start to fall off. Then some states will start saying they need to secede, because it’s unclear how to keep living within this overall system — they’ll feel the need to save themselves. By "all of this" is meant Trump's policy, which is unpredictable for the markets and finance.
#USA

If this expulsion of China from the classroom by teacher Trump leads to increased trade between the U.S. and Russia, then trade turnover between Russia and the U.S. should skyrocket. But I think you understand that this won’t happen. Right now, China sells — or used to sell before the introduction of those 125% tariffs — iPhones to the U.S. So what now? Is China supposed to sell iPhones to Russia, and Russia to the U.S.? That’s absurd. It’s not going to happen.
#Russia #China #USA #Economy

I believe there will be a certain degree of distancing now, but not total, not fatal, because the set of arguments in favor of their alliance hasn’t been exhausted yet. They will move closer or further apart depending on how useful or harmful Trump considers Musk to be at any given moment.
#USA

And then, on the 19th day, the Federal Reserve cut the interest rate to nearly zero and printed a bunch of cash. They printed 700 billion U.S. dollars. Now the numbers will be completely different because money has devalued. This time they'll start printing by the trillions — just watch.
#USA #Economy

Personally, I don’t think there’s a very high likelihood that the Americans might launch a military campaign against Iran — the chances are low, but not zero.
#Iran #USA

It’s not very important to him — to Trump. And I predict that, indeed, after stopping the hot phase of the war, he will hand over the negotiation process to the Europeans. He doesn’t need it.
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Europe

It’s possible that France might want to send troops to Ukraine on its own. However, it’s unclear how they would be supplied there, and what would happen if the Russian army strikes French forces. In that case, Paris would find itself in a very difficult position — either start a war with Russia or quietly withdraw the troops and admit military defeat. Therefore, we’ll risk making a prediction — Macron won’t send anyone anywhere. All his statements are loud but empty political PR. Until the Americans authorize the deployment of European — and specifically French — troops to Ukraine, no Europeans will appear there.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #France #Europe #USA #Russia

I think, in the end, VOA won't be shut down but will be drastically reduced and turned into something resembling Radio Beijing during Mao's era — broadcasting Trump’s wisdom and his Brilliant Ideas around the clock in all languages. VOA = Voice of America
#USA #Trump

It is clear that Trump is making many concessions. But his patience is not limitless. And, naturally, at some point, he will get tired of Putin leading him by the nose. He understands all of this perfectly. And I think the turnaround will be impressive. We will see, first of all, the reintroduction of sanctions, secondly, an increase in arms supplies to Ukraine, and much more.
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine

No matter how many demands Putin makes, no matter how brazen and rude those demands are, Trump fulfills them one by one. And he will continue to fulfill them, allow me to make this prediction.
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #War in Ukraine #Ukraine

It is clear that the negotiations will lead nowhere. Putin will demand the five regions that Witkoff is already offering him. They will end. New approaches will be needed. Trump will most likely step away from this topic, losing interest in it. This is where China will step onto the stage with much stronger leverage.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #China #Trump

It is already clear that Trump will not sign anything with Zelensky (well, let’s leave a 1-2 percent chance for an extreme scenario—though an alien arrival seems like a slightly more likely scenario).
#Trump #Zelensky #USA #Ukraine #War in Ukraine

He will not achieve peace with Moscow because he cannot make such a peace at Ukraine’s expense. He cannot. That is not what he promised, that is not what is expected of him, and he does not have the authority to do so. Trump.
#Trump #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia

I think that Musk will either calm down soon or he will be removed.
#USA

I have not the slightest doubt that after Trump's meeting with Putin, he will simply adopt Putin's plan and program exactly as it is. I have absolutely no doubt about this.
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #War in Ukraine #Ukraine

The most likely course of Russia-U.S. negotiations: a forecast attempt. 1. The U.S. and Russia are not ready to reach a compromise on Ukraine. 2. This is why the phone conversation between Putin and Trump has been delayed for so long—there needs to be a result, but there isn't one yet. 3. The conversation will take place soon. They will agree on a summit and a working group. 4. The summit will take place in the spring. However, there will still be no compromise on Ukraine. 5. However, a crucial compromise will be reached—de-escalation in terms of nuclear conflict. Trump will present this as a huge victory. 6. There will be a pause in negotiations on the Ukraine conflict, discussions will continue in a closed format, while military actions will also persist. 7. Trump will cut U.S. funding for Ukraine by about three times—from $300 billion to $100 billion—and will push Europe to contribute more, up to $200 billion. Europe will not increase its contributions. 8. In the spring, summer, and fall, everything will continue as it is. 9. By autumn, political conditions for negotiations will take shape: Europe's and Ukraine’s fatigue will force them to make more concessions to Russia. 10. Thus, by the end of the year, or possibly even in the fall, a peace agreement will be signed.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Trump

I speculate on what the next move by the United States might be: closing the Danish Straits, through which about 30-40% of Russia's oil and gas exports pass.
#USA #Denmark #Russia #Oil #Economy

By the way, I bet that Greenland's status will not change legally. In fact, it will remain the same as well. Especially since, as you’ve noted yourself, America’s influence there is already significant.
#Greenland #USA #Denmark

I think, and I’m even confident, that we will reach a ceasefire and then a peace agreement. I believe this will happen next year. I know that very intense consultations are currently taking place between the Russian and American sides. I assume between the American and Ukrainian sides as well. In response to the question: "What changes can we expect in military and diplomatic updates during 2025?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA

Of course, he will face difficulties in the summer when the debt ceiling will inevitably have to be raised, even if some budget cuts are implemented. In 2025, the U.S. will have to raise the debt ceiling.
#USA #Economy

There will be no negotiations, no ceasefire—it’s all complete nonsense. And how Trump will get himself out of this talk about ending the war in 24 hours is unclear. Naturally, Ukraine won’t just give up Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, or Donetsk region.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA

It seems to me that the delivery of Tomahawks to us is already close. To Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA

Here’s a new prediction for you. As soon as the new administration takes office, strangely enough, the issue of entry into the United States will likely change fundamentally. If anyone thinks that people will be massively deported to Mexico from America, I don’t think it will work that way for a number of reasons.
#USA

Well, I don’t really believe in that scenario. Because even with the makeup of the Senate and the House of Representatives, I see that there are many supporters of continued financial and military aid to Ukraine, including within the Republican Party. In response to the question: "If it happens that after his inauguration, Trump, with a majority in both the Senate and the House, decides to either stop or significantly reduce financial aid to Ukraine to near zero, what will happen?"
#Trump #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA

I’m thinking about how quickly he’ll fall out with Elon Musk. Because Elon Musk overshadows him. And someone like Trump doesn’t like being overshadowed. That’s why I think we’ll soon see a great battle of the titans, with Elon Musk being pushed out of this administration and moving into opposition.
#USA

It seems to me that Trump will start by crashing oil prices, working to bring them down in order to take away Putin's main advantage—money.
#Trump #Oil #Economy #Russia #USA

It draws the attention of European officials, which is something Georgia really needs right now. America is likely to lean toward not recognizing the election results. In Georgia.
#Georgia #USA #Elections

I think there will be an attempt to reallocate funding; in other words, Trump will ask the Europeans to pay more, but I don’t think he’ll actually stop military aid. Lend-Lease is indeed an option that will be used. The Biden administration hasn’t really used this Lend-Lease mechanism—selling weapons rather than giving them. I think Trump will make use of it.
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #USA

The leverage in this war is in the hands of the President of the United States. If it’s Donald Trump, then oil prices will almost certainly drop significantly—one could even say they will collapse.
#Trump #Oil #USA

I don’t see quick solutions. Trump, of course, is now saying that it’s very simple—he’ll tell Zelensky one thing, he’ll tell Putin another, and they’ll be forced to agree with him... I don’t think that even if Trump is elected, this issue will be resolved that quickly.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA

In my view, the policy of the next president will be exactly the same as it is today, though perhaps with more or less intensity in support... Both Republicans and Democrats understand that this war is not only about territories in the eastern part of the European continent; it is not only about the territory of Ukraine. Regardless of who becomes the next U.S. president, their policy of supporting Ukraine will remain unchanged.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA

I’m inclined to conclude that, regardless of the name of the next president, Ukraine will not be left without military aid from the United States. Regardless of the name of the new U.S. president.
#Ukraine #USA #War in Ukraine

Trump tax cuts will probably go to sunset most of them. I don't think they'll agree on something but not all of them, so there's going to be a pretty big tax increase in corporations coming at the end of 2025.
#USA #Economy

If Iran and Hezbollah don’t respond with a full-scale war... They’ll wait for Trump’s defeat, which would mean Netanyahu’s defeat as well. If Trump loses the election, Netanyahu will also face defeat.
#USA #Israel #Trump

If Trump is elected... they will simply continue to support... the United States is not a dictatorship... in Congress, the overwhelming majority of senators and congressmen are in favor of continuing aid to Ukraine and opposing Putin. In the event of Trump's election as President of the United States, the policy of the United States towards Ukraine will remain the same, with continued support for Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Trump

For me personally, these details reinforce my confidence that Trump will not help Ukraine or will hinder assistance to Ukraine. If he becomes president.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Trump

It's almost certain that the same level of aid as before won’t be there. Will there be any aid at all? In response to the question: "How likely is it that Ukraine will be left without U.S. financial aid at 2024 levels next year?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA

15 January 2020, the USA and China signed a large-scale economic reconciliation agreement, which, if implemented, would have restored their relations on a full scale... However, in the context of COVID, the Chinese ceased any attempts to implement it, and the Americans also added to the situation because Trump accused China of allowing the infection to spread... If this agreement had been restored, say, with Trump's return and improvements in his relations with Chairman Xi, perhaps history would have taken a different path. But, in my view, this now seems unlikely.
#USA #China

I will create a government efficiency commission tasked with conducting a complete financial and performance audit of the entire federal government. If Trump wins the elections.
#USA #Words of politicians and officials

And if Trump really does sell Ukraine weapons tomorrow funded by massive European money—and corners Putin in Istanbul—I think Putin’s mood will change too. It’s just that I doubt it will happen. I seriously doubt Trump would do it for Zelensky, who is a client of the “deep state”…
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Trump

As of today, based on the indicators we see, there is no discussion of any ground operation in the next six months. In response to the question: “There are protests across the United States against U.S. involvement in the war. How do you assess the likelihood of a ground operation?” (in Iran)
#Iran #USA

Well done, you finally did something decisive without waiting for the United States. They will definitely join the sanctions against Russian oil exports, I'm sure—whether it's in September, October, or November, it doesn't matter, but they will join.
#USA #Russia #European Union #Oil

And don’t even hope that these 500% sanctions will be fully approved — no, no. Tomorrow Putin will call him on the phone, say a few compliments to Trump, Trump will melt into his chair, and do everything he says. The Lindsey Graham bill on sanctions against Russia and 500% tariffs on countries that buy oil and gas from Russia will not be passed.
#USA #Russia

The conditions formulated by Putin. Putin very much wants to gain a lot before negotiations begin, before the hot phase of the war stops. As I understand it, he's achieved his goal; he'll get sanctions. And these sanctions will be very painful. Answer to the question: "Under what conditions, in your opinion, will peace negotiations take place?"
#War in Ukraine #Russia #USA #Economy #Ukraine

He [Trump] will therefore start to consider this sanctions bill. Most likely, Congress will pass it, unless Putin manages to do something beforehand.
#USA #Russia #War in Ukraine

Yes, exactly. That's why I'm saying this law won't be passed. Responding to the comment: "The first thought that comes to mind when you start thinking about Lindsey Graham's project is, what about China, what about India?"
#USA #Russia

No, absolutely not. Trump will lead it — he’ll come to the Senate and speak in support of this bill. In response to the question: "If the Senate moves to put Lindsey Graham’s bill to a vote and it passes, do you think Trump will veto it?"
#USA #Trump

Netanyahu's domestic political situation is difficult. I think he will take a historic step — without waiting for or asking Trump's permission, he will launch a strike on Israel. He misspoke — from the context, it’s clear that he meant "on Iran," not "on Israel."
#Israel #Iran #Trump #USA

These emotional ups and downs, accompanied since February by the looming specter of a backroom deal... People have long been saying that Donald Trump himself might back out — both he and Vance have hinted at it. Honestly, I still don’t believe that the United States is even capable of pulling out of this process. Deep down, I continue to hold on to the hope that one day Trump will snap and push Putin to the breaking point. The U.S. will not exit the process of resolving the war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #USA #Ukraine #Russia

I expect that America will completely pull out of this process. I mentioned this scenario even before Trump took office... He won’t impose any sanctions. In response to the question: "What do you expect regarding the sanctions?" (against Russia)
#USA #Russia #Economy

I think one could choose the option "will give in the coming days". Will Trump give Tomahawks to Ukraine? The four options are: 1) Yes, will give in the coming days 2) Yes, but in months, or even years 3) Will promise, but won't give 4) Won't give and will stop promising. Which option would you choose, Yury Evgenyevich?
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Trump #USA #Russia

I think that pretty soon Trump will send Musk packing, because two narcissistic egocentrics with delusions of grandeur won’t be able to share the same space.
#USA

Sanctions against Russia: a new bill by Senator Lindsey Graham, who has been receiving bribes from Zelensky for many years, on 500% tariffs against all who trade with Russia and do not pay Ukraine, will be introduced in Congress on July 9. Trump has effectively given his consent to it. The prediction is that it will be passed. But. The words "the president must" in it will be replaced with "the president may." And Trump will not impose such tariffs. But he will use them to intimidate both Russia and China and any other country he wants to scare.
#Russia #USA #War in Ukraine #Trump

Well, I understand that in any case, Mamdani will win. Mamdani will win.
#USA #Elections

I think Mr. Mamdani will win, and this will further strengthen the far-left camp in the Democratic Party. In the 2025 New York City mayoral election
#USA #Elections

I think, more likely yes. Answer to the question: "Do you think America will resume arms supplies?" (to Ukraine)
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA

Right now it's difficult to imagine that this meeting would take place... A trilateral meeting, from my point of view, is absolutely unrealistic... it won't happen now. In response to the question: "Will there be a three-way meeting after all with Trump, Putin, and Zelensky?"
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Putin #Zelensky #Russia #Ukraine #USA

Tariffs on countries that consume Russian oil. India will, of course, be the first to suffer. I don't think these tariffs will be extended to China; that's my prediction. The Americans aren't going to quarrel with the Chinese over this right now.
#USA #India #China #Trump #Economy #Oil #Russia

My prediction is this: supplies will resume, but not in the same volume, and it'll be like a drop in the ocean. Meanwhile, Putin will escalate the air and ground campaigns against Ukraine. And following the results of the summer-autumn campaign, another proposal will follow, only this time it won't be for 4 regions, but 6.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA