Predictions and promises monitor

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Authors
175
Predictions
515
Verified
173
Came true
61%
Complex
43%
Confident
43%

Ian Matveev

I think Trump is trying to pressure the Iranian government into making some concessions, cutting a deal, but I don’t think he’ll succeed and will just back off. He’ll be his typical self—talking about how “we’ll hit you hard if you don’t agree”. Nobody will agree, and he won’t actually follow through; he’ll just walk away.
Expected September 19, 2025
#Trump #USA #Iran
ru → en

Oleg Tsaryov

I think the U.S. and Israel will simply bomb Iran into dust, leaving it in ruins. However, they won’t touch the oil and gas infrastructure — to avoid triggering a spike in fuel prices. The strikes will target uranium enrichment centers and military production facilities. They’ll declare it a victory. Iran essentially has no air defense. That’s why Israel and the U.S. will do whatever they want. There’s no way to stop them. There will be no ground operation.
Expected September 17, 2025
#Iran #Israel #USA
ru → en

Vision of the future

The National Security Council under Trump has come to an end. Most likely, a decision will be made to finish off Iran. It’s easier to demonstrate power than to pretend to be a peacemaker. That way, the essence of power is clearer. Anyone who holds even a little bit of power is obliged to kick someone, so that others don’t come too close. Once the decision to crush Iran is made, the Pentagon will get involved in operations with Israel. American refueling aircraft will work with the Israeli Air Force. Then, Tomahawk strikes will begin as a show of force to third countries. This act of vanity and muscle-flexing will be crowned by strikes using high-power deep-penetration bombs.
Expected September 17, 2025
#Iran #USA #Israel
ru → en

Mykhailo Samus

I think that unfortunately, Putin will still manage to hold on until September, and Congress won't start considering that very hellish sanctions package or the 500% tariffs on Russian oil. Referring to the Lindsey Graham bill.
Expected August 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

That this will last long — even this 90-day agreement — I don’t really believe it. Trump won’t hold out; he’ll lose it again, start changing things, and a more serious stage of the war will begin, in which it’s unclear who will win. China might come out on top. The lifting of tariffs against China won’t last 90 days, and the trade war will continue.
Expected August 31, 2025
#USA #China #Trump #Economy
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

The Iran issue ranks second. On Trump’s scale, I would give it a weight of 3 out of 10. We know that this issue will be resolved, and very quickly. The nuclear program will be stopped through negotiations.
Expected August 31, 2025
#Iran #USA #Trump
ru → en

Leonid Shvets

I think Zelensky won’t appear in Washington anytime soon. Svyrydenko will go there, I don’t know, everyone will be going — except Zelensky.
Expected August 31, 2025
#Zelensky #Ukraine #USA
ru → en

Yevgeny Kiselyov

For some reason, I don’t believe that Trump’s lost patience will necessarily turn into a flow of weapons suddenly pouring from across the ocean into Europe and then into Ukraine. And I also find it hard to believe that he’ll impose any “from-hell” sanctions against Putin. It seems to me that he’ll simply lose interest in this recently obsessive idea of his — to achieve a ceasefire on the Ukrainian front as quickly as possible. I think he’ll just throw up his hands and walk away.
Expected August 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #Ukraine
ru → en

Yigal Levin

It seems to me that with Iran, everything is coming to a point where either they will have to start a direct dialogue with the Americans, as the Americans want, or the Americans will start bombing them. I don't see a third possible outcome. We'll see in the coming weeks or months.
Expected August 31, 2025
#Iran #USA
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

Something tells me that Musk is now going to try to initiate the arrest of Soros father and son.
Expected August 31, 2025
#USA
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Since it has the nature of a behind-the-scenes financial and economic deal, Kirill Dmitriev is a key figure here. So, without a doubt, this deal will go through. Calling it “peace talks” doesn’t feel right. I believe it will be a situation that Trump will sell as his victory — and after that, the war will resume. In response to the question: “Do you think peace negotiations will reach their logical conclusion, or will everything continue indefinitely?”
Expected August 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Oleksiy Arestovych

Remember this tweet. It contains the rules and outlines of the new world. Everything stated below has already been decided and will be announced soon. A Ukraine Reconstruction Fund will be established, with the U.S., Russia, and China as its shareholders. The initial capital will consist of $40 billion from the U.S., $40 billion from Russia, and $20 billion from China. Later, this Fund will absorb $350 billion from Russia (frozen assets), while the U.S. considers that it has already contributed $350 billion (this is the exact figure Trump mentioned). But that’s not all. Over time, the U.S. will contribute another $350 billion, China—around $200 billion, along with additional contributions from the royal dynasties of the Persian Gulf. The total size of the Fund is expected to reach $1 trillion.
Expected August 31, 2025
#Ukraine #USA #Russia #China #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Robert Kiyosaki

Why GOLD, SILVER, BITCOIN will rise in price when TRUMP becomes President again... I predict gold will rise from $2,400 an ounce to $ 3,300: silver from $29.00 an ounce to $ 79.00: and Bitcoin from $67,400 per coin to $105,000 by August 2025.
Expected August 31, 2025
#Bitcoin #Economy #USA
en

Vladimir Pastukhov

Most likely, if the negotiations continue at this pace for just a bit longer, two events await us: a large-scale spring-summer Russian offensive on the front lines, and the simultaneous disappearance of America from the picture.
Expected August 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

There is no deal with Trump and there won't be one. I don't expect any new visits from Witkoff to Moscow in the near future; there definitely won't be any.
Expected August 26, 2025
#Russia #USA
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

I have a feeling that the Americans will end up entering the war after all. Trump issued a statement saying that he strongly warns the Iranian regime against attacking our forces and facilities in the Middle East...
Expected August 17, 2025
#USA #Iran #Israel
ru → en

Alexey Naumov

I predict that Donald Trump will hold off on imposing sanctions for now — Ukraine’s attack on the aircraft will give him a reason to claim that neither side wants peace. Sanctions against Russia
Expected July 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Osechkin

I believe that within a matter of weeks, Trump will lose the last of his illusions that any kind of agreement is possible. I don’t think he will make a fool of himself in front of the entire world. I expect that in the coming weeks, he will shift to much more serious rhetoric, and we will see new sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation — not symbolic ones, but measures that will strike hard at Putin’s wartime mobilized economy.
Expected July 31, 2025
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #Economy #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Bogdan Bakaleyko

I get the impression that, in the end, Donald Trump will come to an agreement and won’t continue to pressure the world.
Expected July 31, 2025
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Natalia Evdokimova

I think they’ll agree that they will jointly develop the areas near or around the Arctic Ocean. That’s most likely how it will end — with a mutually beneficial deal. Regarding the ongoing negotiations between Russia and the U.S.
Expected July 31, 2025
#Russia #USA
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

This cannot go on for long. After a while, it will become obvious that peace is impossible. That Trump has only provoked Putin, making him more brazen and less willing to negotiate. Somehow, this bubble will burst. I fear it will happen in an unpleasant and rather loud manner.
Expected July 31, 2025
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

The only tool that could work in this situation is pressure on Putin. It's already clear after two months that Trump refuses to apply it. And he won’t. He will not apply it. It’s already possible to conclude that Trump does not want to put any pressure on Putin.
Expected July 31, 2025
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Mikhail Svetov

When the Democrats published a dossier on the wiretapping that Nixon placed in his political opponent's headquarters, it led to Nixon's impeachment and a shake-up of the American political system. The publication of this dossier will most likely not lead to anything at all. Because that is Donald Trump's signature style. He is speaking about a U.S. National Intelligence report that there is evidence the Democratic Party deliberately created a hoax about Russia's interference in the 2016 U.S. election.
Expected July 20, 2025
#USA #Trump
ru → en

Ivan Yakovina

Right now, the main topic of discussion around the world is, of course, whether Donald Trump will enter the war between Israel and Iran or not. To put it briefly, my answer is that he most likely won't and will be too afraid.
Expected July 19, 2025
#Iran #Israel #Trump #USA
ru → en

Yigal Levin

Indicators suggest that the Americans will likely get involved... It's important to understand that the Americans—especially their air forces—have tools and capabilities dozens of times greater than those of Israel. This, by the way, is a good point. If this is what Israel did to Iran, then what are the capabilities of the U.S.? I think they will get involved. In the end, Trump will probably try to claim the credit for himself, like “Look, I’m the victor”
Expected July 16, 2025
#Iran #USA #Trump #Israel
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Trump promised to announce a surprise for Russia on Monday, July 14th. Everyone's guessing what it could be. My opinion is that Trump will issue a soft ultimatum: If Russia doesn't make concessions, a harsh sanctions law will be passed: a 500% trade tariff for countries that trade with Russia and don't pay "tribute" to Ukraine. And a partial lifting of sanctions if Russia makes concessions. But of course, no one can accurately predict Trump. Not even he himself.
Expected July 15, 2025
#USA #Russia #Trump #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ekaterina Kotrikadze

I think Trump will announce sanctions tomorrow, but they won't be the kind Lindsey Graham is proposing. I believe Graham's suggested sanctions – 500% tariffs against Russia's trade partners – are too extreme; I don't think that will happen. I don't believe Trump will go that far. I think the sanctions will be different, much less painful, but still a significant blow to Russia.
Expected July 14, 2025
#USA #Russia #Trump #War in Ukraine #Economy of Russia
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

Eighty-eight senators are co-authors of the resolution demanding harsh secondary sanctions and 500% tariffs against buyers of Russian oil... Senator Wicker stated that Trump asked the Senate to hold off until the end of this week. So this issue should be resolved next week. And after yesterday’s statements by Thune and Jackson, I have no doubt that the resolution will be adopted.
Expected June 30, 2025
#USA #Russia #Economy #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Denis Borisov

The interest rate... it will be lowered in the near future. In the U.S.
Expected June 30, 2025
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Tatiana Mikhailova

Canada's primary export to the U.S. is oil. The U.S. operates oil refineries that process this oil to produce gasoline for the domestic market. A tariff on Canadian oil would immediately impact gasoline prices within the U.S. Gasoline prices in the U.S. will rise if tariffs on Canadian oil are imposed.
Expected June 30, 2025
#USA #Canada #Oil #Economy
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I believe there will be no response. There will be no strikes by Moscow on the territory of third countries—I mean European countries or the U.S. And no strikes on bases, as they mention, in the Baltic states, for example... This won’t happen. Moscow won’t react to this. There will be no military response from Russia to the decision allowing Ukraine to strike Russian territory with long-range weapons.
Expected June 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Russia #USA #European Union
ru → en

Sergey Grabskiy

From my personal experience communicating with Americans, I get the impression that the U.S. elections will in no way affect the level of combat activity in Ukraine.
Expected June 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #USA #Ukraine
ru → en

Mikhail Kasyanov

The most likely scenario as I see it today — the one that's taking shape... President Trump, I think, by May or June at the latest, will realize that Putin is not capable of making agreements, and he'll start stepping away from the issue. Ukraine will no longer interest him. He’ll blame everything on the Europeans: “These are your problems — deal with them yourselves.”
Expected June 15, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA
ru → en

Arti Green

There will be no just peace. It will be a compromise between justice and injustice, because the Western coalition is not inclined to push this conflict to the point of nuclear escalation. Therefore, they do not plan a military defeat of the Russian Federation. Some agreement will be reached, and I am confident it will happen, as the President of the United States has the leverage to achieve it. Knowing Donald Trump, I can say that he will likely reach this agreement fairly quickly. Regarding an agreement between Russia and Ukraine.
Expected May 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Yuri Shvets

If he wins, well, I said before... this is Trump's personal war against Zelensky... against Ukraine. It could manifest itself the very next day after November 5th. He will just push the lever and cut everything off... Trump will do what he promised; he will cut off all aid and hand Ukraine over to be devoured. If Trump wins the election, he will stop all aid to Ukraine and effectively hand it over to Russia.
Expected May 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Trump #Russia
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

Trump will fail in his attempt to establish peace... The big question is whom Trump will blame for the breakdown of negotiations—Putin or Zelensky. And I strongly suspect that it will be more convenient and cost-effective for Trump to place the blame for the failed talks on Zelensky.
Expected April 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Zelensky #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

There will be a peace plan from the Americans, from Trump’s team. They will offer it to Putin. And then there are two scenarios: Putin more or less agrees, or he more or less refuses. I’m betting that he will more or less refuse, meaning I’m betting that there won’t be a truce in this format. But that’s just my guess.
Expected April 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Mark Feygin

On November 5th, Trump wins, and then what? He thinks he can talk to Putin and resolve everything. That’s not true; he won’t solve anything. If Trump wins the elections, he won’t be able to stop the war in Ukraine just by calling Putin, as he has promised.
Expected April 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Putin #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Dmitry Medvedev

A somewhat weary Trump, spouting clichés like “I’ll offer a deal” and “I have great relationships with...,” will also be forced to follow all the system’s rules. He won’t be able to stop the war. Not in a day, not in three days, not in three months. And if he genuinely tries, he might end up like JFK. Trump will not be able to stop the war in Ukraine.
Expected April 21, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Mikhail Savva

Such a deal format proposed by Trump, to me, is a clear indication that the United States will have a commercial interest in Ukraine maintaining control over its eastern regions. When will the specific outlines of the plan appear? It's hard to say. But I assume it will be before April. By April, this plan will likely be in place and probably made public.
Expected April 10, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA
ru → en

Andrey Illarionov

On September 26, Biden announced that $8 billion in military aid would be provided to Ukraine. As of today, that has not happened. The total amount of military aid provided by the United States to Ukraine since that promise is zero. Zero dollars, zero cents. I would venture to predict that, by the end of Biden's term, as he promised, this $8 billion in military aid will not be provided to Ukraine.
Expected January 20, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Biden
ru → en