Economic sanctions don’t work, because over 25 years Putin has caused so much damage to the Russian economy that any new economic measures would simply be a continuation of Putin’s own policies. That doesn’t stop the war. The only thing that can stop the war is his defeat on the battlefield.
I believe that if the cartel breaks up in the fall or by the end of the year and stops manipulating production, and each country starts producing as much as it can, then prices will drop below 50 dollars per barrel.
Eventually, by the end of the year—or maybe even earlier, in the fall—these countries will make a final decision (I'm already quite sure of it): let’s stop limiting production altogether. Each country will produce as much oil as it wants, as much as it can.
About OPEC
Eventually, by the end of the year—or maybe even earlier, in the fall—these countries will make a final decision (I'm already quite sure of it): let’s stop limiting production altogether. Each country will produce as much oil as it wants, as much as it can.
There is no hope that the negotiations scheduled in Saudi Arabia will lead to talks about a real solution to the military problem—that is, ending the war in the very heart of Europe.
The Americans can easily control this process of price decline. Yes, prices will decline. I am absolutely confident that oil prices will move downward.
Well, I don’t really believe in that scenario. Because even with the makeup of the Senate and the House of Representatives, I see that there are many supporters of continued financial and military aid to Ukraine, including within the Republican Party.
In response to the question: "If it happens that after his inauguration, Trump, with a majority in both the Senate and the House, decides to either stop or significantly reduce financial aid to Ukraine to near zero, what will happen?"
In my opinion, until the U.S. elections are concluded and the American stance on the Iran-Israel conflict becomes clear, Iran is unlikely to take any action, and it seems that Israel will refrain from doing so as well.
I don't think that Hezbollah will recover from this blow.
From the elimination by Israel of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and other important figures and targets.
This morning Brent was at 74... If the price keeps dropping, and the overall trend for the year, I think, is downward. It’s hard to predict, but for now, I don’t see any reason for a significant price increase.
Talking about oil prices.
I believe that a period of about 7-9 years is a very realistic timeframe in which Russia will lose the ability to be an oil exporter altogether. That is, oil will remain for the domestic market... but the revenue from exports will cease.
A hope has emerged; they will not be able to suppress this movement... I believe that it will become increasingly difficult to suppress the current wave.
The wave of protests in Iran
The northern branch is still operating, through Belarus, Poland, and Germany... it will eventually die out sooner or later by the end of the year.
About the northern branch of the Druzhba oil pipeline.
