screenshot

I think this war will definitely continue into next year. War in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

The Kremlin’s very demand for negotiations with the legitimate Ukrainian government creates yet another closed loop. On one hand, the Americans agree to hold elections after a ceasefire. On the other hand, it is impossible to sign even a temporary ceasefire agreement with anyone other than Zelensky, and holding elections before a ceasefire is also not an option. This creates yet another kind of trap, from which I currently see no way out. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that the war will continue for the next several months.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA

I find it hard to imagine a breakthrough to the right bank of the Oskil River with the establishment of a bridgehead. Referring to Russian troops and the Oskil River in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Putin urgently needs to end this war. I think he needs to wait a few months. And we will see how gradually he will start to roll back... Apparently, he will manage to retain at least Donbas for some time, and the question of Crimea will likely be postponed. But Putin will begin to roll back
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

They won’t reverse course, because everything is happening too quickly, and by now it would openly look like an admission that they’ve lost politically. Withdraw Medinsky? Under what pretext? It’s too late for that. More likely, I think, they’ll actually toughen their demands. They’ll now tighten their demands even more — paradoxically, not ease them, but specifically toughen them. That’s most likely what will happen. Some things will sound more blunt, more brazen, more cynical. And going forward, one can assume that the negotiations will end in nothing. Russia will toughen its demands on Ukraine at the negotiations in Istanbul on June 2.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

Negotiations are impossible. We can forget about negotiations.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I think there will be some format. Primarily with the mediation of Turkey. The format of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Turkey

There will be no ceasefire before the beginning of summer. Putin does not want this.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

Our missiles and drones—get ready—they will soon reach Siberia and the Urals. I’m repeating this, guys, be prepared, our range is doing just fine too. (Ukrainian missiles and drones.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

My forecast? No—my insight: the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will collapse now due to Ukraine’s ultimatums. But that will be the first move, a pass. After that, the second move: an announcement will be made about a meeting between Putin and Trump as soon as possible.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Trump #USA

I think that by summer, as I mentioned before, the fighting will subside due to limited resources.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

It is clear that there will be no ceasefire. This will even be discussed until summer.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I do not believe in a near-term resolution of the issue of peace. I do not even believe in a near-term resolution of the issue of a meeting between Trump and Putin.
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Putin #Russia #Ukraine #USA

Within a few months, the conflict will be frozen—I have little doubt about that. Speaking about the war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I don’t think we’ll see Putin and Zelensky at the negotiating table anytime soon.
#War in Ukraine #Putin #Zelensky #Russia #Ukraine

Many are now writing that this week will be critical, that something will be decided in the coming days. It seems to me that, logically, they should at least sign a 30-day ceasefire. But of course, it's not guaranteed — I could be wrong.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

The unilateral Christmas truce declared by Putin in 2023 ended in nothing and has been forgotten. The current one has a chance to last a bit longer and even become the first step toward something greater. However, that chance is minimized by the abruptness of the move, which turns it more into an argument in a debate with skeptics in Trump’s circle and a fast-acting remedy for disappointment. If Ukraine responds positively to the proposal, it will make it somewhat less convenient for Moscow to break the truce. But even in this case, Russia still retains almost the same level of freedom to act. The lack of on-the-ground control offers plenty of opportunities to accuse the opponent of violating the truce and to proceed at its own discretion. Especially since, most likely, Moscow will make the continuation of the pause conditional on the immediate halt of arms deliveries and mobilization on the Ukrainian side.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

We’re recording this broadcast on the eve of potential negotiations. People are hoping for a ceasefire, for peace. I don’t believe in it. Let’s proceed from the assumption that it won’t happen. Speaking about the war in Ukraine and a truce between Russia and Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

The proposal to cease fire will be rejected. This false narrative about continuing negotiations will be put forward. Russia will reject the ceasefire proposal in Istanbul.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Turkey

Essentially, the 30-day ceasefire has fallen through. Accordingly, there are no sanctions, as we can see. Technically, the ultimatum is nearing its end, time hasn’t fully run out yet. But it’s almost obvious that Europe won’t impose sanctions, because it doesn’t know what to do. The idea was to act in coordination with Washington, but Washington is saying unclear things. Regarding Europe’s ultimatum to Russia to agree to a 30-day ceasefire, or face new sanctions.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Europe #Economy #Economy of Russia

Starting Monday, the 30-day ceasefire — in my opinion, I could be wrong — I would be very surprised if Moscow stops the fire. My logic, my understanding of the process, suggests that it won’t happen on Moscow’s part. On the 30-day ceasefire proposed by Kyiv starting May 12.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

First of all, probably such a truce still won’t happen — 99%. In response to the question: "Is a 30-day extended truce possible?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Despite Donald Trump’s efforts, it is unlikely to lead to any immediate ceasefire. At the very least, the fighting will still continue during the first few months of 2025. Speaking about the war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

And already in the winter, maybe in the spring, some real negotiations will begin. There won’t be peace yet. But some real negotiations will start.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Zelensky failed to disrupt the negotiations by citing the "wrong" composition of the Russian delegation. Zelensky is soon flying to Istanbul, where his negotiators have already been located. In addition, an extra Ukrainian delegation is flying to Turkey, consisting of deputy foreign ministers, deputy defense ministers, SBU representatives, and members of the Presidential Office. This delegation is expected to hold the main meeting with the Russian counterparts.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Turkey #Zelensky

Right now, the Russians have gone to the Dolmabahçe Palace in Istanbul. The Ukrainians said they would arrive in Istanbul late. Why was this said? To take a pause and decide on a new delegation lineup. I think tomorrow it won’t be Rustem Umerov anymore, but someone of a lower level from the Ukrainian side.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Turkey

Trump urged Ukraine to agree to the meeting on May 15, so it seems to me that it should take place. Referring to the meeting with Russia in Istanbul on May 15.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #Turkey

Forecast: I believe that the Russian side will agree to a 30-day ceasefire during the negotiations. It will not be presented as a response to the ultimatum from the EU and Ukraine, but rather as an independent initiative within the framework of a desired peaceful resolution. This is a forecast. Assessments will follow later.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I doubt that Ukraine will agree to such terms (Putin calls it negotiations without any conditions. A clever formulation). Overall, it seems like nothing has really happened, but I’d be glad to be wrong. I just wish the war would end soon. On Putin’s proposal to resume negotiations in Istanbul.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Turkey

With a high degree of probability, Ukraine will refuse to participate in the negotiations in Istanbul.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Turkey

I think the negotiation process will begin by spring. Talks between Russia, Ukraine, and mediators will start.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA

Zelensky agreed to negotiations in Istanbul but personally called on Putin to attend. It’s clear that Vladimir Putin himself will not go to the negotiations.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Zelensky #Putin #Turkey

Tomorrow, May 15, there is a high likelihood that no meeting between Zelensky and Putin will take place.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Zelensky #Putin #Turkey

To be honest, I don’t expect Putin to show up. It would be a very positive sign if he did — it would mean that Russia is seeking a ceasefire. In Istanbul on May 15 for negotiations with Zelensky.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Turkey

I'd give it a 1. Not zero. It's not zero probability. In response to the question: "Could Putin come? On a scale from 1 to 10, what number would you assign to the likelihood of Putin coming?" (To Istanbul on May 15 for negotiations with Zelensky)
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Turkey

No. No, of course not. In response to the question: "Tell me, do you think Putin will come to Istanbul tomorrow or not?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Turkey

I tend to believe that Putin, of course, will not fly to Turkey. In response to the question: "What should we expect from the meeting between Zelensky and Putin in Turkey?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Zelensky #Turkey

To be honest, I find it hard to believe that Putin will come, because I don’t see it happening — and I think he’s afraid of direct negotiations, especially on neutral ground, where there will be no propaganda, no support, and he’ll have to sit at the same table with Zelensky. I think Putin is afraid, so I doubt he’ll come. In response to the question: "What’s your prediction? Will Putin come?" (To Istanbul on May 15 for talks with Zelensky)
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Zelensky #Turkey

No, of course he won’t fly there. I even placed a bet on it. In response to the question: "Do you think Putin will go to Istanbul for negotiations with Zelensky?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Zelensky #Turkey

Putin responded during the night with his proposal for a meeting on May 15 in Istanbul. We've seen Zelensky's response... Will Putin agree or not? My personal opinion is that, of course, he won’t come, and of course, nothing will happen. Putin will not come to Istanbul on May 15 for negotiations with Zelensky.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Zelensky #Turkey

It seems to me that he is considering taking this risky step — the step of signing a truce with Ukraine. I don’t know whether he will go to Istanbul or not; I admit that he might. Of course, I agree that there’s a 99.9% chance he won’t go, but still, I allow for the possibility that it could happen. 99.9% chance that Putin will not go to the negotiations with Zelensky in Istanbul on May 15.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Turkey

The negotiations on May 15 are expected to fall through, since Putin will not attend talks with Zelensky.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Zelensky #Putin #Turkey

In my view, it is impossible to reach any kind of agreement right now. No matter what level the delegations are represented at—even if Putin himself comes, which I highly doubt—Putin has been saying from the very beginning that the Ukrainian president is illegitimate. (Putin will not attend the negotiations in Istanbul.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Zelensky #Turkey

I don’t believe he’ll come. In response to the question: "In short, I think Putin will have to come up with something more impressive. And what can he do except act tough and show up in Istanbul on Thursday? What do you think will happen?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Turkey

Zelensky said he would personally come to Istanbul and wait there for Vladimir Putin. A strong move. Putin definitely won’t go there.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Zelensky #Putin #Turkey

Talks in Istanbul — what’s going on? 1. Putin won’t go to Zelensky because Zelensky wants to stage a hostile show. 2. But if Trump comes, then Putin will come too.
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Zelensky #Putin #Ukraine #Russia #USA

When will the Russian delegation arrive in Istanbul? I don’t know who will be there. It’s unlikely that Putin will respond to such an invitation from Zelensky — “I’ll be waiting for Putin in Turkey on Thursday in person”. Knowing the character of our Petersburg comrades, they’ll react to this with a smirk and won’t go in response to such an invitation. At most, they’ll say: “Send Arahamia, and we’ll send Vladimir Rostislavovich Medinsky”
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Putin #Turkey

So my prediction is that most likely America will not back out, will not withdraw from the process next week... And most likely, Trump will continue to maintain the role of mediator, even if his position shifts — he still won’t leave.
#War in Ukraine #USA #Trump #Ukraine #Russia

Let’s get back to the Trump administration. What’s next? I think that’s it. Basically, next week or in a couple of weeks, they’ll officially take offense — like, “if you’re so ungrateful and forgot to thank us, then we’re not going to do anything.” The Trump administration will soon withdraw from efforts to resolve the war between Russia and Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Trump

The Kursk region is in for very good news. The area currently controlled by Ukraine will remain under Ukraine’s control.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

In Ukraine today, the situation with the repair of the energy sector is better than it was two years ago... Ukraine cannot be destroyed... It is completely impossible to bring it to its knees. Ukraine will survive this winter. Both Zelensky and Zelensky's rating will survive it. Kharkiv residents will survive it too. This means that Ukraine will not surrender this winter and will not accept Russia's conditions due to the fact that Russia is destroying its energy infrastructure.
#Ukraine #War in Ukraine

I think that both before and after the New Year, the Ukrainian Kursk bridgehead will hold. And in the spring, more or less when all the mud has dried up, it could potentially be fully retaken with significant efforts from the Russian military.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Not even the Minister of Economy went from Ukraine to the U.S. for negotiations on the resource deal — the highest-ranking official there is Deputy Minister Kachka. No one knows who that is. The Ukrainians once again brought a proposal the Americans are seeing for the first time. There will be no deal. Trump, you've been misled.
#Ukraine #USA #Economy #Trump

Zelensky will soon arrive at the White House for the signing of an agreement on rare earth metals and the transfer of Ukraine's infrastructure to a U.S. fund. He will not be the one signing it, but he will be present. And the funniest part? He will be wearing a business suit. The days of dirty, unwashed sweatshirts and cargo pants are over for the White House.
#Zelensky #Ukraine #USA #War in Ukraine

Now we might also be expecting Korean soldiers. Because we’ve already taken out 6 officers. And the South Korean Minister of Defense said that North Korea is planning to send its troops. I don't believe it. My prediction: I don't think any serious Korean forces will appear on the front from the Russian side. We might take out another 5 officers, but if we're talking about 10,000 troops — I don't believe it.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #North Korea

Tomorrow everyone is nervous, waiting for something — am I waiting? Who the hell knows, but I have the feeling that the real red lines are not to kill Comrade Xi or even to scare Comrade Xi. These lines are clear to the Ukrainian side, so I assume nothing will happen tomorrow, and the parade, if you watch it, will go smoothly without a hitch. Meaning that Ukraine will not attack the parade on Red Square in Moscow on May 9.
#Russia #War in Ukraine #Ukraine

I tend to believe that there won’t be a deliberate attempt to strike during the parade. But it cannot be ruled out. Talking about possible Ukrainian attempts to strike the May 9 parade in Moscow.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

That's the situation with the truce. As you can see, it’s over, and now the shelling has resumed. I don't expect any strong reaction from the U.S. The Kremlin will now say, “Look, Ukraine is not capable of making agreements, it violated the truce.” Most likely, there won’t even be much of a reaction from the American administration. And that’s how this Easter truce came to an end.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA

In war, nothing is ever known in advance. Otherwise, the two sides wouldn’t be fighting. If nothing gets signed next week — and in my view, the chances of that are quite low.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Easter is just a week away, even just 6 days. It’s absolutely clear that there will be no truce by that time.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

We all understand perfectly well that no matter how much Donald Trump may wish it, if certain objectives are not achieved — and they won’t be — we can say this: until May 9th, there’s no point in even opening our mouths or thinking that any kind of ceasefire might happen.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

I think that by Easter, or maybe by May 9, there will be some kind of agreement on a ceasefire.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

No, it won't. Answer to the question: "Do you think it's possible to expect that in the near future — say, by the 100th day of Trump's presidency or by May 9 — the war will come to a halt?"
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

No, there won’t be. There will be no ceasefire. I say this with deep sorrow. In response to the question: “Do you think there will be a full ceasefire by Easter?”
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia