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Predictions and promises monitor

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#Ukraine

Authors
260
Predictions
1242
Verified
521
Came true
65%
Complex
60%
Confident
51%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Sergey Grabskiy

Absolutely not. Absolutely not, because with the current pace of advance that we’re seeing, I virtually rule out such a possibility in the near future—at least for the next six months. In response to the question: "Could there be a threat to any regional centers in Ukraine?" (Will the Russian army be able to take any regional centers in Ukraine?)
Expected November 4, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

I think, more likely yes. Answer to the question: "Do you think America will resume arms supplies?" (to Ukraine)
Expected November 3, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA
ru → en

Dmitry Oreshkin

Remember, back in August, Alaudinov, a Chechen general, said that the war would be over in 2-3 months. No, it won’t end; it will drag on for a long time. The war in Ukraine.
Expected November 3, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Aleksandr Morozov

Right now it's difficult to imagine that this meeting would take place... A trilateral meeting, from my point of view, is absolutely unrealistic... it won't happen now. In response to the question: "Will there be a three-way meeting after all with Trump, Putin, and Zelensky?"
Expected November 2, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Putin #Zelensky #Russia #Ukraine #USA
ru → en

Oleksiy Arestovych

My prediction is this: supplies will resume, but not in the same volume, and it'll be like a drop in the ocean. Meanwhile, Putin will escalate the air and ground campaigns against Ukraine. And following the results of the summer-autumn campaign, another proposal will follow, only this time it won't be for 4 regions, but 6.
Expected October 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

I don’t think such a breakthrough is possible at this point... As of now, the collapse of the Ukrainian front doesn’t seem possible to me. In response to the question: "Is a breakthrough of the front by Russia possible?"
Expected October 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

I believe that unfortunately, Ukraine will be forced to accept the arrangement that will be agreed upon in negotiations mediated by Kirill Dmitriev and Steve Utkoff, and which will be finalized during a personal meeting between Presidents Putin and Trump. And Ukraine’s only trump card in this situation is military aid from Europe.
Expected October 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia #Putin #Trump
ru → en

Vitaly Portnikov

We’re generally talking about this war as something prolonged over time. I honestly don’t see any prospects for the Russo-Ukrainian war to end in the foreseeable future.
Expected October 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Oleg Kashin

As for peace, and the promised end to the Russian-Ukrainian war — which never happened and clearly won't happen anytime soon.
Expected October 6, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

Let's not forget about the Novorossiysk port, which I think will become a very important target for Ukraine in September. Let's lock in this prediction of mine. In September, the Novorossiysk port will be in the news precisely in this context.
Expected October 1, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Oil
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

There's a very high probability that Putin will stop the war. It seems it won't be in 10 or 12 days, or by August 10th; larger timeframes are needed for that. But this war will be stopped relatively quickly. Due to Trump's ultimatum.
Expected September 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Putin
ru → en

Konstantin Eggert

I'll take the risk of making this assumption: these negotiations will lead nowhere. In reality, Putin doesn't want peace at all. What he wants is Ukraine's capitulation.
Expected September 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Arti Green

I don’t expect anything in the foreseeable future. Not until Russia moves to the next level of mobilization. I mean, unless it brings another half a million soldiers into service and increases the level of industrial mobilization, I don’t see any significant threats on any part of the front.
Expected September 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mikhail Fishman

Trump will continue to build relations with Putin one way or another. Trump will simply start pulling out of the war in Ukraine. And it will end pretty soon because of that. That’s my prediction. And I would be glad to be wrong. It seems to me that soon, America will no longer be part of this war.
Expected September 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Trump #Russia
ru → en

Nikolai Feldman

I am quite sure that this will not happen. In response to his own question: "Do you believe there will be peace in the near future?" (Talking about the war in Ukraine)
Expected September 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

It seems to me that judging by the pace, the attack on Kupyansk and the fighting for it are more likely to happen in the summer of this year, maybe even in the fall, something like that. Things are moving pretty slowly there.
Expected September 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Fyodor Krasheninnikov

As of now, September 19, 2024, I still hold the opinion that there is a long way to go until the end of this war. And unless some kind of miracle happens, such as the sudden death of Vladimir Putin, the main organizer and inspirer of this war, it will most likely last for another year.
Expected September 19, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Of course, I don't expect any major changes from the Trump administration in the next 2-3 weeks. We will again see comments from Putin, Trump... I expect that Trump will simply back out; this is my personal opinion, assessment, and forecast.
Expected September 15, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Many researchers suggest that Russia has a plan to move further towards the village of Velykyi Burluk... But by the end of summer, no, that's too far, it's beyond Russia's capabilities right now.
Expected September 15, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Sergey Auslender

Launchers are in short supply for them, carriers are in short supply, so there aren't many missiles in their volleys, which is good. But the number of drones is growing more and more. And I'm afraid we'll see 1,000 before the end of summer, literally. The number increases every day there. And Ukrainians urgently need to work on this. By the end of summer, Russia will launch 1,000 drones at Ukraine in a single volley.
Expected September 15, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

During this year's summer campaign, I'm not sure that Russian forces will be able to accomplish the tasks set before them and create any significant buffer zone 10–15–20 km deep and stretching along the entire border of the Sumy region — no, that's unlikely.
Expected September 15, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

So, we're waiting. You can place bets, everyone loves to argue. We can debate whether Putin will decide on the same massive bombings he conducted before August 10th. Those interested, write to me, and we'll debate.
Expected September 10, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Ilia Novikov

TCC, in Russian, is a military enlistment office... My prediction is they'll try to play with this for a while, then they'll run out of military enlistment offices that can be hit by drones. Using a large missile or several missiles to completely destroy a military enlistment office is a rather unprofitable project. And in a month or two, we won't hear about these targeted attacks on military enlistment offices anymore. In a month or two, Russia will stop targeted attacks on Ukraine's TCCs.
Expected September 8, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Win/Win

A fake story has been spread about a supposedly planned meeting of Trump's associates in Europe, allegedly with both Trump and Zelensky participating. This is all being done to hijack the agenda being dictated by the summit in China. There won't be any meeting in Europe. At least not with Trump.
Expected September 5, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Trump #Zelensky #European Union
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Most likely, closer to the end of summer, we will probably see the first full-fledged battles for the city of Pokrovsk itself.
Expected August 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Pavel Schelin

There will be no ceasefire. A ceasefire is an extremely unrealistic scenario, because the conditions that Russia sets for it are, in fact, a de facto capitulation of Ukraine.
Expected August 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Specifically regarding this footage, it was clearly a case of running in, snapping a photo, and running back — in other words, not a real foothold in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. But it’s clear that in the coming months, the Russian army will definitely cross that border. A border crossing is clearly expected this summer.
Expected August 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

Europe is making some plans to build an army by 2028–2029. But there will be no 2028–2029. Everything will be decided in the summer of 2025. Either Ukraine will be broken and Europe will be left helpless and defenseless in the face of Russian aggression, or the situation will turn 180 degrees through massive arms supplies and the deployment of its own troops and pilots — and then a political crisis will emerge in Moscow.
Expected August 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Gennady Gudkov

They are unfeasible. There will be no peace. All serious politicians in Europe already understand that. In response to the question: "The U.S. proposed that Europe ease sanctions against Russia in the event of a peaceful settlement in Ukraine. The U.S. also believes that the territories Russia captured during the war should remain under Moscow’s control. These proposals have been voiced. Bloomberg reports on this. How feasible are they?"
Expected August 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Yevgeny Kiselyov

For some reason, I don’t believe that Trump’s lost patience will necessarily turn into a flow of weapons suddenly pouring from across the ocean into Europe and then into Ukraine. And I also find it hard to believe that he’ll impose any “from-hell” sanctions against Putin. It seems to me that he’ll simply lose interest in this recently obsessive idea of his — to achieve a ceasefire on the Ukrainian front as quickly as possible. I think he’ll just throw up his hands and walk away.
Expected August 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #Ukraine
ru → en

Sergey Grabskiy

Therefore, it's not appropriate to say that we are seriously considering the possibility of an offensive in the Sumy or Kharkiv direction today or in the near future. Speaking about a potential Russian offensive.
Expected August 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Stepan Demura

Unfortunately, the war will continue. It seems that now there will be a war. Not a special military operation, but a war in the true sense.
Expected August 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Since it has the nature of a behind-the-scenes financial and economic deal, Kirill Dmitriev is a key figure here. So, without a doubt, this deal will go through. Calling it “peace talks” doesn’t feel right. I believe it will be a situation that Trump will sell as his victory — and after that, the war will resume. In response to the question: “Do you think peace negotiations will reach their logical conclusion, or will everything continue indefinitely?”
Expected August 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Michael Nacke

I think the surprise over North Koreans participating in the war and being used in combat roles will, by the middle of next year, become quite a common story. In other words, we’ll be watching plenty of videos of FPV drones taking down North Koreans.
Expected August 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #North Korea #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Pastukhov

Most likely, if the negotiations continue at this pace for just a bit longer, two events await us: a large-scale spring-summer Russian offensive on the front lines, and the simultaneous disappearance of America from the picture.
Expected August 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

We believe that within a month, a month and a half, or two at most, Russian troops will most likely be able to reach the settlements of Khoten, Pisarevka, and Yunakovka, and will most likely stop there, not advancing any further.
Expected August 17, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Oleksiy Arestovych

75 to 25. A 75% chance that the campaign will continue, the war will go on; and a 25% chance that Trump will achieve some sort of truce. In response to the question: "If nothing changes, what problems are we facing this summer?"
Expected July 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

I’m more inclined to believe the second scenario—that Putin will come up with excuses and reasons not to agree. In the end, he will not go for a truce.
Expected July 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Alfred Koch

I think so. If we’re talking about a simple ceasefire without any conditions, then it can be agreed upon. In response to the question: "Will it be possible to achieve a ceasefire in the coming months?"
Expected July 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Abbas Gallyamov

I consider the negotiation track to be key, maybe not in the short term—over the next week or even months—but over a relatively longer period, like six months. Overall, the resources of both sides, in Russia and Ukraine, are significantly depleted.
Expected July 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Sergei Markov

The failure of peace negotiations and Trump’s sanctions against Russia, even if symbolic, mean that Russia will launch a military offensive. It can be assumed that during the peace talks mediated by Trump’s team, Russia had committed not to start a major offensive. If those commitments are no longer in place, the offensive begins. Apparently, that’s what will happen in the near future.
Expected July 29, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Igor Eidman

By summer, I believe Germany will step up and significantly increase its support for Ukraine, especially if the Americans do not resume their aid.
Expected July 15, 2025
#Germany #Ukraine #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Alexei Venediktov

I lean towards the idea that substantive negotiations on a ceasefire will begin. As for how they will end, as Viktor Stepanovich Chernomyrdin once said: "That’s a philosophical question." In response to the question: "Do you believe that within the next six months there will be a truce, a ceasefire, or that Putin won’t agree to it?"
Expected June 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

The noose around Kupiansk is tightening. Judging by the balance of forces, the city will inevitably be captured. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will have to abandon it, just as they previously left Vuhledar and Selydove.
Expected June 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

I don’t believe in Putin’s ability to negotiate. I believe that Trump will do all the work, that he will go through the entire process. Yes, he will formulate peace proposals. Yes, he will bring some representatives of Ukraine and Russia to the table—not the presidents, not Zelensky or Putin. And then Putin will start his sabotage. Because Putin has no intention of ending the war, and he doesn’t need any peace agreement.
Expected June 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Putin #Trump #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Sergey Grabskiy

From my personal experience communicating with Americans, I get the impression that the U.S. elections will in no way affect the level of combat activity in Ukraine.
Expected June 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #USA #Ukraine
ru → en

Ian Matveev

But if the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) don’t push back the advancing forces right now, Chasiv Yar will inevitably be captured within the next few months.
Expected June 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I expect that in the coming days there will be a retaliatory response from Russia to these attacks on airbases. It will be a massive aerial attack on Ukrainian cities.
Expected June 16, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mikhail Kasyanov

The most likely scenario as I see it today — the one that's taking shape... President Trump, I think, by May or June at the latest, will realize that Putin is not capable of making agreements, and he'll start stepping away from the issue. Ukraine will no longer interest him. He’ll blame everything on the Europeans: “These are your problems — deal with them yourselves.”
Expected June 15, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA
ru → en

Vision of the future

Tomorrow, Ukraine is also very likely to disrupt the exchange. Referring to the exchange of prisoners of war and the bodies of the deceased between Ukraine and Russia.
Expected June 9, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Zelensky will be in Berlin tomorrow. He wouldn’t have gone if there weren’t a firm promise to provide Taurus missiles. His visit, in fact, signals that the agreement to supply such weapons is being put into action.
Expected May 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Germany #Zelensky
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I do not expect a large-scale attack toward Sumy. In response to the question: "Will Russia be able to advance toward Sumy if it pushes Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region?"
Expected May 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Arti Green

There will be no just peace. It will be a compromise between justice and injustice, because the Western coalition is not inclined to push this conflict to the point of nuclear escalation. Therefore, they do not plan a military defeat of the Russian Federation. Some agreement will be reached, and I am confident it will happen, as the President of the United States has the leverage to achieve it. Knowing Donald Trump, I can say that he will likely reach this agreement fairly quickly. Regarding an agreement between Russia and Ukraine.
Expected May 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Mark Feygin

For peace and the start of negotiations, there must be at least Moscow's agreement to retreat from the remaining parts of Ukraine that they haven’t occupied. Can you imagine that? I can’t. The idea of Putin giving up Kyiv and 80 percent of Ukraine is unimaginable to me. So far, I don’t see any signs that Putin is willing to abandon his strategic goal.
Expected May 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Putin
ru → en

Evgeny Savostianov

I don't see any opportunities today to decisively turn the situation in someone's favor... Most likely, everything will be pushed to next year. I don't see the resources for any side to achieve victory today... Most likely, everything will drag on until next May or the second half of April. The war in Ukraine will end, or there will be a significant turning point in it, by May 2025.
Expected May 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en