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Predictions and promises monitor

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#Ukraine

Authors
258
Predictions
1188
Verified
490
Came true
64%
Complex
58%
Confident
51%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Vladimir Pastukhov

Most likely, if the negotiations continue at this pace for just a bit longer, two events await us: a large-scale spring-summer Russian offensive on the front lines, and the simultaneous disappearance of America from the picture.
Expected August 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

We believe that within a month, a month and a half, or two at most, Russian troops will most likely be able to reach the settlements of Khoten, Pisarevka, and Yunakovka, and will most likely stop there, not advancing any further.
Expected August 17, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Gennady Medetsky

What we’re seeing now makes it absolutely clear that there will be no quick truce, no 30-day pause like some were expecting from this deal on Ukraine. And there’s one simple reason for that: the advantage Russia currently holds on the front lines — that’s undeniable, everyone knows it — is practically Putin’s only trump card in the negotiations.
Expected July 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Oleksiy Arestovych

75 to 25. A 75% chance that the campaign will continue, the war will go on; and a 25% chance that Trump will achieve some sort of truce. In response to the question: "If nothing changes, what problems are we facing this summer?"
Expected July 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Dmitry Demushkin

Someday, the hot phase of the conflict will come to an end. The sides are currently engaged in a war of attrition. But I don’t really believe in the signing of any peace agreement right now — because the interests of the parties are diametrically opposed.
Expected July 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

I’m more inclined to believe the second scenario—that Putin will come up with excuses and reasons not to agree. In the end, he will not go for a truce.
Expected July 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Alfred Koch

I think so. If we’re talking about a simple ceasefire without any conditions, then it can be agreed upon. In response to the question: "Will it be possible to achieve a ceasefire in the coming months?"
Expected July 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

In the next six months, yes. 100%. That’s my prediction. In the coming six months, the Russian army will definitely not capture Pokrovsk. In response to the question: "Will Ukraine be able to defend Pokrovsk?"
Expected July 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Abbas Gallyamov

I consider the negotiation track to be key, maybe not in the short term—over the next week or even months—but over a relatively longer period, like six months. Overall, the resources of both sides, in Russia and Ukraine, are significantly depleted.
Expected July 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Sergei Markov

The failure of peace negotiations and Trump’s sanctions against Russia, even if symbolic, mean that Russia will launch a military offensive. It can be assumed that during the peace talks mediated by Trump’s team, Russia had committed not to start a major offensive. If those commitments are no longer in place, the offensive begins. Apparently, that’s what will happen in the near future.
Expected July 29, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Igor Eidman

By summer, I believe Germany will step up and significantly increase its support for Ukraine, especially if the Americans do not resume their aid.
Expected July 15, 2025
#Germany #Ukraine #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Dmitry Oreshkin

It seems that within the coming months, a rotten compromise will be reached, which will please neither side... but it is far better than senseless and merciless bloodshed. Speaking about the war in Ukraine.
Expected July 15, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

The Russian military is already attacking Ukraine with all available forces. I haven’t seen Russian drones or missiles holding back anywhere. They’ve recently been setting new records for the number of drones used in a single strike, even without any SBU attacks. So I don’t think we’ll see anything supernatural or particularly unusual. Most likely, Putin will just continue his campaign of terror, and that’s it. In response to the question: "What will happen to the attacks on Ukraine after the SBU strike?" (referring to the SBU attack on Russian military airfields on June 1, 2025)
Expected June 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Dmitry Demushkin

The market reaction is one thing. The European ultimatum, which Peskov commented on regarding the ceasefire, is another. And the meeting in Istanbul is a third. As for the fundamental and main question — will there be peace? In my opinion, no. Because the positions of the two sides differ drastically.
Expected June 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

As before, I still believe that the resources for continuing high-intensity combat operations are not unlimited for either side — neither for the aggressor, the Russian Federation, nor for the defending Ukraine. Therefore, I still maintain my opinion that in the first half of this year, a ceasefire agreement, under one scenario or another, will be reached.
Expected June 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ivan Preobrazhensky

One can be fairly certain about the upcoming negotiations: either it will once again be talks in Riyadh, or it will be a direct call between Putin and Trump — and they will finally come to some kind of agreement. Most likely, an energy agreement on non-strike commitments and a deal regarding the Black Sea will be signed. Because the Ukrainian side will agree to sign them.
Expected June 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia #Trump #Putin
ru → en

Arti Green

I am sure that it will. In response to the question: "Will the war stop, as some say, by the middle of this year or not?" (The war in Ukraine)
Expected June 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Alexei Venediktov

I lean towards the idea that substantive negotiations on a ceasefire will begin. As for how they will end, as Viktor Stepanovich Chernomyrdin once said: "That’s a philosophical question." In response to the question: "Do you believe that within the next six months there will be a truce, a ceasefire, or that Putin won’t agree to it?"
Expected June 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ian Matveev

The noose around Kupiansk is tightening. Judging by the balance of forces, the city will inevitably be captured. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will have to abandon it, just as they previously left Vuhledar and Selydove.
Expected June 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mikhail Fishman

If we set aside the possibility of negotiations, which are likely to fail anyway, it will once again become apparent that the Russian army is advancing, and the Ukrainian army cannot effectively counter it.
Expected June 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

I don’t believe in Putin’s ability to negotiate. I believe that Trump will do all the work, that he will go through the entire process. Yes, he will formulate peace proposals. Yes, he will bring some representatives of Ukraine and Russia to the table—not the presidents, not Zelensky or Putin. And then Putin will start his sabotage. Because Putin has no intention of ending the war, and he doesn’t need any peace agreement.
Expected June 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Putin #Trump #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Sergey Grabskiy

From my personal experience communicating with Americans, I get the impression that the U.S. elections will in no way affect the level of combat activity in Ukraine.
Expected June 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #USA #Ukraine
ru → en

Ian Matveev

But if the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) don’t push back the advancing forces right now, Chasiv Yar will inevitably be captured within the next few months.
Expected June 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I expect that in the coming days there will be a retaliatory response from Russia to these attacks on airbases. It will be a massive aerial attack on Ukrainian cities.
Expected June 16, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mikhail Kasyanov

The most likely scenario as I see it today — the one that's taking shape... President Trump, I think, by May or June at the latest, will realize that Putin is not capable of making agreements, and he'll start stepping away from the issue. Ukraine will no longer interest him. He’ll blame everything on the Europeans: “These are your problems — deal with them yourselves.”
Expected June 15, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA
ru → en

Vision of the future

Tomorrow, Ukraine is also very likely to disrupt the exchange. Referring to the exchange of prisoners of war and the bodies of the deceased between Ukraine and Russia.
Expected June 9, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Zelensky will be in Berlin tomorrow. He wouldn’t have gone if there weren’t a firm promise to provide Taurus missiles. His visit, in fact, signals that the agreement to supply such weapons is being put into action.
Expected May 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Germany #Zelensky
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I do not expect a large-scale attack toward Sumy. In response to the question: "Will Russia be able to advance toward Sumy if it pushes Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region?"
Expected May 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Arti Green

There will be no just peace. It will be a compromise between justice and injustice, because the Western coalition is not inclined to push this conflict to the point of nuclear escalation. Therefore, they do not plan a military defeat of the Russian Federation. Some agreement will be reached, and I am confident it will happen, as the President of the United States has the leverage to achieve it. Knowing Donald Trump, I can say that he will likely reach this agreement fairly quickly. Regarding an agreement between Russia and Ukraine.
Expected May 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Mark Feygin

For peace and the start of negotiations, there must be at least Moscow's agreement to retreat from the remaining parts of Ukraine that they haven’t occupied. Can you imagine that? I can’t. The idea of Putin giving up Kyiv and 80 percent of Ukraine is unimaginable to me. So far, I don’t see any signs that Putin is willing to abandon his strategic goal.
Expected May 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Putin
ru → en

Evgeny Savostianov

I don't see any opportunities today to decisively turn the situation in someone's favor... Most likely, everything will be pushed to next year. I don't see the resources for any side to achieve victory today... Most likely, everything will drag on until next May or the second half of April. The war in Ukraine will end, or there will be a significant turning point in it, by May 2025.
Expected May 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Yuri Shvets

If he wins, well, I said before... this is Trump's personal war against Zelensky... against Ukraine. It could manifest itself the very next day after November 5th. He will just push the lever and cut everything off... Trump will do what he promised; he will cut off all aid and hand Ukraine over to be devoured. If Trump wins the election, he will stop all aid to Ukraine and effectively hand it over to Russia.
Expected May 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Trump #Russia
ru → en

Mikhail Fishman

Zelensky will cancel his decree, and Putin — if he wants to. He simply doesn’t want to. We must gradually begin to let go of the illusion of these negotiations and realize that, in reality, they’ve already fallen apart. On the potential negotiations between Ukraine and Russia — or between Zelensky and Putin personally — in the near future. And even if they do happen, they will lead to nothing.
Expected May 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Zelensky #Putin
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

Trump will fail in his attempt to establish peace... The big question is whom Trump will blame for the breakdown of negotiations—Putin or Zelensky. And I strongly suspect that it will be more convenient and cost-effective for Trump to place the blame for the failed talks on Zelensky.
Expected April 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Zelensky #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

There will be a peace plan from the Americans, from Trump’s team. They will offer it to Putin. And then there are two scenarios: Putin more or less agrees, or he more or less refuses. I’m betting that he will more or less refuse, meaning I’m betting that there won’t be a truce in this format. But that’s just my guess.
Expected April 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Mark Feygin

On November 5th, Trump wins, and then what? He thinks he can talk to Putin and resolve everything. That’s not true; he won’t solve anything. If Trump wins the elections, he won’t be able to stop the war in Ukraine just by calling Putin, as he has promised.
Expected April 30, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Putin #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Dmitry Medvedev

A somewhat weary Trump, spouting clichés like “I’ll offer a deal” and “I have great relationships with...,” will also be forced to follow all the system’s rules. He won’t be able to stop the war. Not in a day, not in three days, not in three months. And if he genuinely tries, he might end up like JFK. Trump will not be able to stop the war in Ukraine.
Expected April 21, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Mikhail Savva

Such a deal format proposed by Trump, to me, is a clear indication that the United States will have a commercial interest in Ukraine maintaining control over its eastern regions. When will the specific outlines of the plan appear? It's hard to say. But I assume it will be before April. By April, this plan will likely be in place and probably made public.
Expected April 10, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA
ru → en

Andrey Illarionov

On September 26, Biden announced that $8 billion in military aid would be provided to Ukraine. As of today, that has not happened. The total amount of military aid provided by the United States to Ukraine since that promise is zero. Zero dollars, zero cents. I would venture to predict that, by the end of Biden's term, as he promised, this $8 billion in military aid will not be provided to Ukraine.
Expected January 20, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Biden
ru → en

Agil Rustamzade

I think that, most likely, before the onset of winter, the offensive pace of the Russian army will remain more or less the same. If the Ukrainian army does not significantly increase its firepower on this section of the front, then most likely there will be a battle for Pokrovsk in the fall.
Expected December 15, 2024
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en