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Predictions and promises monitor

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Vladimir Pastukhov

Political scientist (Russia)

Predictions
9
Verified
1
Came true
100%
Complex
0%
Confident
0%
5.75

Vladimir Pastukhov

Why did Hess fly from Germany to the UK in his own plane and spend the rest of his time there at a guarded estate before the war? I’ve never seen a definitive answer to that question — neither what message he delivered, nor why Hitler decided to send him. I believe the answers to these questions are still stored in archives that are unlikely to be declassified anytime in the next 100–200 years.
Expected
#Germany #United Kingdom
ru → en

Vladimir Pastukhov

Most likely, if the negotiations continue at this pace for just a bit longer, two events await us: a large-scale spring-summer Russian offensive on the front lines, and the simultaneous disappearance of America from the picture.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Vladimir Pastukhov

A civil war in Russia is unfolding in a hidden form, and its transition to an open form is practically a foregone conclusion, inevitable. I am not thinking about how to prevent it, but rather how to win it.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Pastukhov

My personal conviction is that, at some point, Russia will inevitably face another Caucasian war. There’s a certain irony in history, that what this regime began with is what it will ultimately end with.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Pastukhov

Some kind of permission will ultimately be granted. It will be given in a limited form, for a restricted amount of weapons. Referring to the permission for Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory with Western weapons.
Completely came true
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Pastukhov

As for future exchanges, I have a bad feeling that this situation was unique... Unfortunately, I think this situation will not repeat itself very quickly. We shouldn't expect more prisoner exchanges between Russia and other countries soon, similar to the one that took place on August 1, 2024.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Pastukhov

It is quite clear that sooner or later YouTube will be banned in Russia, unless the regime is overthrown before that... more likely, the regime will cancel YouTube
Expected
#Russia #Internet #Censorship
ru → en