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Predictions and promises monitor

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#Ukraine

Authors
191
Predictions
794
Verified
282
Came true
62%
Complex
58%
Confident
51%
All Expected Expected soon New results

Julian Roepcke

Everyone understands perfectly well that Russia will not stop there. Russia will go further. No one will say, “We’ve reached the borders of the areas annexed in 2022, and that’s it, we’ll stop here.” No, they’ll come up with some pretext, saying a buffer zone is needed or something else. That’s precisely why Ukrainians are now actively building new lines of fortifications in both the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
en

Mark Feygin

If British and American troops are indeed deployed there under an international UN mandate, you understand that they will never leave—they’ll dig trenches, settle in, and so on, whether in blue helmets or any other color. Moscow will never agree to this. Moscow will not accept a truce in the Ukraine war that involves a neutral buffer zone controlled by British forces.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #United Kingdom #USA
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

It will remain occupied at first, but then we will definitely take it back, reclaim it, no question about it—there’s no other way. Sooner or later, Crimea will certainly be part of Ukraine.
Expected
#Ukraine
ru → en

Maria Snegovaya

This is not advantageous for Putin at the moment. The situation on the front is good for him, and there is a threat to Ukraine that he will push further in the near future. But if such a freeze is reached, it will most likely be temporary because the U.S., Europe, and the West as a whole cannot provide Ukraine with a long-term security guarantee today.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Konstantin Sonin

I am confident that Russia will, for many years—decades even—have to pay compensation for the destroyed Ukrainian cities, industries, and energy systems, and will have to make significant concessions to return to international trade and cooperate with other countries, at least partially. This will happen under any American administration, there’s no doubt about it.
Expected
#Russia #Ukraine #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Konstantin Sonin

I am confident that Russia will have to withdraw its troops from the occupied territories of Ukraine... This will happen under any American administration, there’s no doubt about it.
Expected
#Russia #Ukraine #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Pavel Sebastyanovich

As for joining the EU and NATO, that will never happen. We just have to accept it—it will never happen. As long as this government is in place and this policy continues, it will never happen. Speaking about Ukraine.
Expected
#Ukraine #European Union #NATO
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

I thought that the most likely development of the Russia-Ukraine conflict would be a shift toward a Korean scenario. But it seems the situation will more likely resemble the Israel-Palestine conflict, where there are periodic meetings, consultations, negotiations, and peace agreements, followed by Nobel Peace Prizes. After that, everyone starts killing each other again. And, as you understand, this has been going on for almost 80 years. Relying on any truces to fundamentally change the situation is no longer possible.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

A similar situation is unfolding in Ukraine right now. The choices aren’t great either. Ukraine is slowly moving toward authoritarianism. There’s already a propaganda campaign instead of a free information environment. The security forces are beginning to dominate as well. I think they’ll remove Zelensky from power, and gradually, security forces and intelligence services will start to take control.
Expected
#Zelensky #Ukraine
ru → en

Roman Svitan

At some point, we’ll be discussing how many Tomahawks we received, how they’ll be launched, and so on. That’s definitely how it’s going to be. We will get Tomahawks. But it’s important to understand that the Tomahawk itself isn’t a game-changer; it’s a missile that’s already half a century old. Ukraine will eventually receive Tomahawk missiles.
Expected
#Ukraine #USA #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Aleksandr Kochetkov

This is as absurd as the discussions about creating nuclear weapons in Ukraine under current conditions… At this point, developing nuclear weapons is an entirely utopian idea.
Expected
#Ukraine #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

The president is likely to be a former military officer. The next president of Ukraine.
Expected
#Ukraine
ru → en

Alexander Mercouris

I think everybody now the Americans, the Europeans, the Ukrainians themselves recognize that Ukraine is losing the war. Even The Economist a few weeks ago said Ukraine is losing the war. But I I don't share any optimism about a diplomatic solution or a negotiation.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
en

Mikhail Chaplyga

We will most likely never be there due to geopolitical reasons. And all the other aspects of the victory plan stem from NATO membership. Ukraine is unlikely to ever join NATO.
Expected
#Ukraine #NATO
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Zelensky is submitting an application for Ukraine's entry into NATO. However, it won't be accepted because most NATO countries do not want to engage in a direct war with Russia.
Expected
#Ukraine #NATO #Zelensky
ru → en

Sergei Markov

Russia currently controls 20.7% of Ukrainian territory. Before February 23, it was 7%. These calculations were made by Forbes. However, we disagree with them because they include Crimea in both the 7% and the 20.7%, and as everyone knows, Crimea is Russia. So, 20% under Russian control is still to come. And we foresee 30%, 40%, 50%, and even 60% in the future.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Valery Solovei

Neither 5 weeks, nor 5 months, nor 5 years will allow Ukraine to create nuclear weapons. This is not only due to political restrictions but also because of technical challenges... It is impossible to imagine a scenario where the West would support the development of a Ukrainian atomic bomb.
Expected
#Ukraine #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

For now, these prospects are still elusive; they are more likely to be relevant in the post-war period. Not during a time when the war is frozen, but when it is fully over and all territorial disputes are resolved. Until that point, Ukraine's entry into NATO is clearly not going to happen.
Expected
#Ukraine #NATO
ru → en

Mark Rutte

So that means that yes in the future NATO will have as 32 or 34th member we will have Ukraine. At the moment it seems that it will be Ukraine as number 33 but maybe somebody else pops in front of him. But Ukraine will be a member of NATO in the future. That is what we decided in Washington. So the question is now about the timeline.
Expected
#Ukraine #NATO #Words of politicians and officials
en

Mikhail Savva

Ukraine will be in NATO. This is important not only for Ukraine but also for NATO.
Expected
#Ukraine #NATO
ru → en

Aleksey Pilko

We'll take the risk of making a prediction. Most likely, there will be a negative response to all the points of the plan. The West will continue to pursue the same political line on Ukraine as before. Ukraine is needed as a proxy tool for the war against Russia, not as an asset for which the West would be willing to directly engage in conflict with Russia at the risk of nuclear war. Referring to Zelensky's Victory Plan.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA
ru → en

Mark Feygin

I don’t believe in any organized protest, for the simple reason that I don’t see any political forces capable of it. There used to be, but not anymore... That’s why I don’t believe in any mass and organized protest now, under the conditions of war. Ukraine will not face major internal protests or political destabilization during the current war.
Expected
#Ukraine
ru → en

Yuri Fedorov

Honestly, I don’t think there will be permission. In response to the question: "What do you think will happen with the permission regarding long-range missiles?" (Will the U.S. grant permission for Ukraine to use long-range missiles on Russian territory?)
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #USA
ru → en

Dmitry Bykov

The consensus on Ukraine's entry into NATO has been reached... It’s completely clear that it will happen.
Expected
#Ukraine #NATO
ru → en

Alexander Nevzorov

The United States is in favor of Ukraine joining NATO... And without a doubt, this support is a reaction to Zelensky's very smart political move, his trump card involving nuclear weapons. Now it’s clear that sooner or later, Ukraine will inevitably join NATO, if only to ensure that NATO can control its future nuclear ambitions.
Expected
#Ukraine #NATO #Nuclear weapons
ru → en

Mark Feygin

China plans to take over Taiwan by any means necessary, including military action, if the situation is safe for them—meaning if it can be done without consequences, such as no interference from the United States. Under what circumstances would that be possible? It's quite obvious: if Ukraine loses, if the West abandons it. If the West gives up on Ukraine and it loses the war, China will take over Taiwan.
Expected
#Taiwan #China #Ukraine #USA
ru → en

Sergey Grabskiy

I categorically rule out... I deny and exclude the possibility of creating nuclear weapons on the territory of Ukraine, including so-called dirty bombs.
Expected
#Nuclear weapons #Ukraine
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

He's about 50, Zaluzhny. I have a suspicion that he will be one of the main participants in the presidential elections that will take place right after the war. Zaluzhny will be a candidate in Ukraine's future presidential elections.
Expected
#Ukraine #Elections
ru → en

Ramis Yunus

Here’s a more accurate and direct translation of your text: But from a pragmatic perspective, I understand that they won’t abandon Ukraine. And America, no matter who is president, will not be able to abandon it because abandoning Ukraine means abandoning Europe. Abandoning Europe means abandoning NATO and the European Union. Who will allow Trump to dismantle the EU and NATO? No one in America will allow it, no matter what he says. The U.S. will not abandon Ukraine.
Expected
#USA #Ukraine #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Michail Onufrienko

I'm confident that permission to use missiles deep within our territory, even the older territory recognized by the UN, will be granted. Referring to Russian territory.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Andrey Malgin

Putin has put himself in a position where he absolutely must win. However, he will not be able to win this war. He may claim some local achievements, but that will not amount to victory in light of the enormous losses.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Ukraine
ru → en

Vitaly Portnikov

If a politician manages to achieve a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine that is recognized as a just peace, they would undoubtedly be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for resolving the conflict. However, I believe this will not happen, because I don’t see any real prospects for such a political settlement in the foreseeable future.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine
ru → en

Alexander Genis

Ukraine has already won. Russia has already lost the war, no matter how it ends. Because Ukraine will never again be a part of Russia... Ukraine will be part of Europe, and it will become a member of the European Union and NATO. This is an inevitable course of events; the only unknown is how much more blood it will take to get there.
Expected
#Ukraine #Russia #War in Ukraine #European Union #NATO
ru → en

Roman Tsymbaliuk

When the full-scale invasion began, I realized that over time Ukraine would receive all Western weapons, and for free, with the exception of nuclear weapons, submarines, and aircraft carriers. This is basically obvious.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine
ru → en

Sergey Grabskiy

Ukraine can afford the luxury of launching hundreds, or even two hundred, drone strikes overnight. Our geography is vast, and there is plenty to destroy. We won’t just sit around dreaming of Tomahawks. Ukraine is already accomplishing these tasks today. In my hometown of Feodosia, an oil products base, which is very important, was blown up today. With these small tactical but significant steps, we are moving closer to our victory. My task is to assure you that victory will be ours; everything will be alright.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ilya Yashin

I believe that Putin has already lost this war. It’s clear that he won’t be able to win it. The goals that were initially declared—capturing Kyiv, denationalizing Ukraine (which, in simple terms, meant stripping it of its sovereignty), and demilitarizing Ukraine (which meant taking away its army and ability to resist)—essentially turning Ukraine into a puppet state under Kremlin control—are obviously unattainable.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Putin #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Fesenko

As long as the current war is ongoing, not only will we not be in NATO, but there is a high probability that we will not be invited to NATO either. There will be some hints, but nothing more than that. The process of inviting Ukraine to NATO will not happen during the war. Because this is, if not a direct, then an obligation to help us in the war with Russia. They will not agree to this now.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #NATO
ru → en

Agil Rustamzade

But it’s clear that this war is a dead end. For both sides. Even if the supply of weapons to you increases by 40-50 percent, you’ll just keep killing them, that’s all. More killing — if you're killing 1,000 people a day now, you’ll be killing 2,000. The other side will lose its human resources, but neither side will move forward or backward. You’ll keep using up weapons and taking losses as well. This war has no prospects for either side.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Michael Nacke

It seems to me that Ukraine will become a weapons center in Europe after winning the war. Even now, a huge number of manufacturing facilities are being opened there... As far as I understand, underground factories are being built.
Expected
#Ukraine #Europe #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

It’s clear that the Sarmat missile won’t be used in the current war in any way. It’s more about boosting the prestige of the Russian army, specifically Putin. Putin used to love threatening with these Sarmats, showing cartoons of them hitting Florida with their missiles. And now we’re seeing these technical problems, with the missiles blowing up again and again.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine #Putin
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

There are no interests for either Trump or Biden to end the Ukrainian war... Do you think Trump will stop supplying weapons to Zelensky? I believe he absolutely will not.
Expected
#Trump #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA
ru → en

Stanislav Belkovsky

Permission to strike Russian territory with long-range weapons of Euro-Atlantic origin... I believe that this permission will be granted, that’s my prediction. Perhaps in a more limited, compromise form—allowing strikes with British-American Storm Shadow missiles and French SCALP missiles, but not with American ATACMS. Permission for Ukraine.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia #United Kingdom #France
ru → en

Yulia Latynina

I believe that the most likely and inevitable outcome of the war is a freezing of the conflict along the front line, followed by negotiations... The other question is where the front line will be at that time.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Douglas Murray

I think that in the case of Ukraine sad as I am about it it'll probably end up having to be a land swap situation and there'll be redrawing of the borders as it's terrible but since the spring offensive failed last year I don't think that the Ukrainians have had enough of a military success since 2022.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
en