Predictions and promises monitor

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#Economy

Authors
98
Predictions
269
Verified
79
Came true
61%
Complex
58%
Confident
42%

Nikolay Kozhanov

I think oil will just fluctuate in the near future within the range of around 75–85 dollars per barrel.
Expected August 19, 2025
#Oil #Economy
ru → en

Evgeny Kogan

Here are a bunch of factors why the ruble is strong. In my opinion, this situation is temporary. There will be a reversal. I think when the rate is cut again by 100 basis points in July, by around August, the ruble will gradually start to weaken.
Expected August 15, 2025
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Alexey Naumov

I predict that Donald Trump will hold off on imposing sanctions for now — Ukraine’s attack on the aircraft will give him a reason to claim that neither side wants peace. Sanctions against Russia
Expected July 31, 2025
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Trump #USA #Economy
ru → en

Vladimir Osechkin

I believe that within a matter of weeks, Trump will lose the last of his illusions that any kind of agreement is possible. I don’t think he will make a fool of himself in front of the entire world. I expect that in the coming weeks, he will shift to much more serious rhetoric, and we will see new sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation — not symbolic ones, but measures that will strike hard at Putin’s wartime mobilized economy.
Expected July 31, 2025
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #Economy #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Bogdan Bakaleyko

And then we’ll return to our familiar 95–100. The Finance Ministry knows better how far to devalue the ruble to make the budget work. But obviously, that will definitely happen. There’s no avoiding it.
Expected July 31, 2025
#Ruble #Dollar #Economy #Economy of Russia #Russia
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

You're looking at such a long horizon for the interest rate, it's very difficult. The world is so turbulent that even a month is a long time. I think, most likely, they will keep the rate unchanged and say they will continue to monitor the trend of slowing inflation, but the Central Bank is ready to raise the rate if inflationary pressure in the Russian economy intensifies again. This is roughly the scenario I expect. In response to the question: "I understand it's still quite early to make predictions about the next Central Bank meeting, but if the decision is made based on behind-the-scenes situations, intrigues, internal power struggles, what forecast would you make for the next meeting on July 25? What will they do with the rate? Will they keep lowering it?"
Expected July 25, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

I’m not a Trump buff. But to ignore what Trump actually does—like when he drove oil prices down, and now they’ve been driven up again by an Iranian move—would be foolish. It won’t last long. Prices will fall sooner or later—most likely in early July, though we can’t give exact forecasts; it might be next week, or even this week. Once the confrontation starts to cool, Urals crude will drop below $60.
Expected July 23, 2025
#Oil #Economy
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

They are trying to scare us by saying there will be no sanctions, look, Hungary and Slovakia have blocked new sanctions. Well, let me give you a forecast: another week or two, 1-2 weeks, and there will already be the 18th package of sanctions. That is my simple forecast. 18th package of sanctions against Russia
Expected July 15, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia #European Union
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

I don't believe this will cause any long-term or persistently high change in oil prices — they’ll spike for a while and then start to dip again. Due to the ongoing war between Israel and Iran, oil prices have temporarily risen and will drop again later.
Expected July 13, 2025
#Oil #Economy #Iran #Israel
ru → en

Michael Nacke

This will have quite a few different consequences, and one of them we are seeing now in the rise of oil prices. But this is a hysterical market reaction — I don't think it will last long. I believe oil will go down fairly quickly. Due to Israel’s strike on Iran, oil prices have risen, but they will go down soon.
Expected July 13, 2025
#Oil #Economy
ru → en

Michael Sheitelman

Literally yesterday, the issue of capping the price of Russian oil was being discussed, lowering the cap from 60 to 45... The G7 meeting is supposed to start on Sunday or Monday, where they were expected to agree on this new price cap of 45 dollars, and then the European Union was supposed to support it by the end of June. But today, the oil price has already gone up — it's already 75 dollars per barrel, instead of 60-something — and now, it seems to me, they won’t dare to lower it to 45.
Expected June 30, 2025
#Oil #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Andrey Piontkovsky

Eighty-eight senators are co-authors of the resolution demanding harsh secondary sanctions and 500% tariffs against buyers of Russian oil... Senator Wicker stated that Trump asked the Senate to hold off until the end of this week. So this issue should be resolved next week. And after yesterday’s statements by Thune and Jackson, I have no doubt that the resolution will be adopted.
Expected June 30, 2025
#USA #Russia #Economy #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Denis Borisov

The interest rate... it will be lowered in the near future. In the U.S.
Expected June 30, 2025
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Tatiana Mikhailova

Canada's primary export to the U.S. is oil. The U.S. operates oil refineries that process this oil to produce gasoline for the domestic market. A tariff on Canadian oil would immediately impact gasoline prices within the U.S. Gasoline prices in the U.S. will rise if tariffs on Canadian oil are imposed.
Expected June 30, 2025
#USA #Canada #Oil #Economy
ru → en

Dmitriy Potapenko

To answer your question, the rate will be raised to 23-25%, but it will be raised a bit later because you can’t spoil the timing. Referring to the key interest rate in Russia.
Expected June 30, 2025
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy
ru → en

Vyacheslav Shiryaev

This is simply a reason for the bulls to push prices up. They managed to do that. This is a temporary phenomenon. I, of course, expect a response from Iran — Shahed drones will fly, they already seem to be flying, missiles will be launched from Iran toward Israel, but I do not expect any catastrophes with oil exports from the Persian Gulf. Therefore, for 2-3 days everything will fluctuate at high levels, and then from Monday everything will drop unless there is some kind of nuclear escalation. Oil prices, which surged due to Israel’s strike on Iran, will start to decline from Monday.
Expected June 17, 2025
#Oil #Economy #Iran #Israel
ru → en